The latest weekly Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor shedding another two points on the primary vote – down over the last three surveys from 42 per cent to 40 per cent to 38 per cent – and the dividend again being picked up by the Greens, who have gone from 8.5 per cent to 11 per cent to 13 per cent. The Coalition is down half a point to 41 per cent. As a result there is only a slight change on the two-party vote, with Labor’s lead down from 52-48 to 51.5-48.5. There seems to be an anomaly with the “others” rating, which has supposedly jerked up from an anomalous 2 per cent to 6.5 per cent. The fact that last week’s figures only add up to 97 per cent probably has something to do with this.
Elsewhere:
• New South Wales Labor is bracing itself for tomorrow’s Penrith by-election, which you can discuss here. Tune into this site from 6pm tomorrow for live coverage.
• The Senate passed legislation yesterday that will allow pre-poll votes cast within the relevant electorate to be treated as ordinary rather than declaration votes, and thus to be admitted to the count on election night. This will account for about 4500 votes per electorate – roughly 5 per cent of the total. Nearly 20 per cent of the votes cast in 2007 were declaration votes of various kinds, slightly under half of which were pre-polls. The bill also allows changes to enrolment to be made online, and will prevent a repeat of the Christian Democratic Party’s effort from last year’s Bradfield by-election where it fielded nine candidates without having to go to the bother of obtaining the 50 supporting signatures required of independent candidates.
• Wyong councillor John McNamara has been chosen as the new Liberal candidate for Dobell. The nomination had been vacated by the withdrawal of original nominee Garry Lee, who seems to have been pushed because his establishment of a company to take advantage of the government’s insulation scheme threatened to muddy the election campaign waters. VexNews published a colourful account from a local Liberal who tipped the outcome earlier in the week, which suggested the party does not fancy its chances in the seat.
• The Queensland Times has published a list of eight starters for the June 27 Liberal National Party preselection in the new seat of Wright, to be held following the disendorsement of Hajnal Ban. Not included are the previously discussed Bill O’Chee and Ted Shepherd. Former Blair MP Cameron Thompson appears to be the front-runner, the others being Scott Buchholz, chief-of-staff to Senator Barnaby Joyce; Richard Hackett-Jones, “a long-term tax-review campaigner who helms the Revenue Review Foundation which advocates for a uniform rate of income tax”; Bob La Castra, Gold Coast councillor and perennial preselection bridesmaid; David Neuendorf, a Lockyer councillor; Scott White, an aircraft engineer; and the unheralded Erin Kerr and Jonathan Krause.
• Yet more trouble for the Liberal National Party, with the Courier-Mail reporting local members are calling for Forde candidate Bert van Manen to be disendorsed because “he had not kept his promise to fund his own election”. While van Manen was reckoned safe for the time being, “sources admitted there had been problems and his position might come under scrutiny if there were any further issues”.
• The Liberal National Party has preselected Logan councillor Luke Smith to run against Craig Emerson in the safe Labor southern Brisbane seat of Rankin.
• The Illawarra Mercury reports former rugby league player David Boyle will withdraw as Labor candidate for the winnable south coast New South Wales seat of Gilmore, after his installation by the national executive caused an uproar in local party branches.
• Following the withdrawal of original nominee Tania Murdock, the Nationals will preselect a new candidate tomorrow for the Labor-held north coast New South Wales seat of Richmond. The preselection has attracted four candidates, an interesting turnaround on the first round when Murdock was the only person interested. According to Alex Easton of The Northern Star, the nominees are “Richmond Nationals president Alan Hunter and lawyer Jim Fuggle from the south of the electorate; and businessman Phil Taylor and pharmacist Brian Curran from the seat’s north”. Oddly, Hunter was quoted on Wednesday saying “party members would not automatically appoint a candidate if there were no stand-out nominations”, with suggestions the one-time Anthony family stronghold should be left to the Liberals.
• The Tasmanian Liberals are hawking internal polling which it says shows Labor in trouble in as many three seats, although the only figure provided – a 37 per cent primary vote tie in Bass, which would translate to a comfortable win for Labor – doesn’t bear this out. The other two seats are Braddon and, it seems, Lyons. Barnaby Joyce has today been talking of a Queensland hit-list consisting of Leichhardt, Dawson, Flynn, Longman and Wright (a slightly creative inclusion given it’s a notionally LNP new seat), with Forde as a roughie.
• Left faction powerbroker and state party assistant secretary Luke Foley has taken the place of Ian Macdonald in the New South Wales Legislative Council, following the latter’s resignation after an adverse review finding into travel expenses.
[ billy cart moving at 20mph. ]
You’ll have to come and push the billy cart though, Connally.
I was push-polled once, a few years back. I suspect the polling was for One Nation. The questions were quite racist, and all offered answers were unpallatable. I refused to answer those questions, and said what I thought of them. I asked who the poll was for, and was given a number I could ring to follow up. I still regret that I didn’t do it.
So if you get polled, and you think the questions stink, speak up. Don’t pike like I did.
That 7 News site that Frank linked to a little while back, didn’t take long to pick up 117 comments. WOW! Interesting enough, it appears that the punters “are” waking up to the media’s little schemes though.
[I really wish the media would stop making stuff up, but I mean the media is controlled by the rich who want to keep on getting richer which the mining tax will stop. So I guess it makes sense, they have to try their hardest somehow to stop the average working class Australian getting his share of what Australia as a whole owns.]
And talk about censorship and trying to hide the truth.
This post had {Comment hidden due to its low rating.– Show} beside it.
When I clicked on “show” I got the following. LOL! 😉
[the media in this country are so anti labor it is embarrasing.]
http://au.news.yahoo.com/a/-/latest/7427316/im-the-man-to-beat-at-election-rudd/
Their Lady of Fatima – includes a guest appearance by that well known stomach pump attendent 🙂
The Penrith by-election was neither a surprise nor indicative of any federal election results.
As an NSWer, I can tell you that state politics is well and truly ‘on the nose’. Big Barrie and his crew have a marginally better image that Labor in the state — but really is a case of electing bad or worse. And Barrie and crew just win by default.
If state politics were local, they would have been sacked long ago — all if the Labor/Lib/ Green/ Independent and Tonkinese for that matter. They all suck. But you gotta choose, don’t you.
If it was optional voting, I expect 20 people would have turned out.
Jen
hidden in the detritus is the turnout rate
I suspect it was under 80%
😉
[If it was optional voting]
Jen we ought to have optional voting IMHO.
Then they’d have to earn our vote.
Shanna’s tomorrow:
Truthy, you saying the polls aren’t rigged is proof enough that they are.
Back to your pineapple and ice cream. Mum’ll be wanting to do the washing-up any minute now.
If tonight the newspoll shows Labor at LESS than 50% TPP, will the hacks in here finally admit Rudd is losing the fight over the GBNT on miners?
Gee Glen what do the Liberals do to earn your vote?
No.
Bushfire Bill,
Careful, now! You “might” be seen as a conspiracy theorist! 😉
no never
Of course not, that would mean eating a slice of reality pie.
Labor and it’s hacks are going all the way to the election with your heads in the sand hoping everything will just fix itself. Good luck with that.
Just for Truthy if I am ever polled I am going to claim I vote for Abbott and it is all because of a tax and some leaking boat.
I might even play blue sky mining and six months in a leaking boat to the pollster
When it’s really happening it’s not a theory.
oops I meant Blue Sky Mine
Og Truthy, SHUT UP, will you?
You’re like a noisy mosquito around the place.
[Just for Truthy if I am ever polled I am going to claim I vote for Abbott and it is all because of a tax and some leaking boat.]
MB, and I thought it was because of the intellectual force of TTH’s arguments.
What I find most interesting about the righties is we saw a wave of them here on Friday until I put the facts in front of them and I think most of them have been missing ever since.
Maybe they met a filter.
[As an NSWer, I can tell you that state politics is well and truly ‘on the nose’. Big Barrie and his crew have a marginally better image that Labor in the state — but really is a case of electing bad or worse. And Barrie and crew just win by default.]
jenauthor – that goes for me too. Pity Iemma won cos Labor could have refreshed earlier. There could be a big informal vote next March from lack of interest in any of them.
BB
SWMBO has just showed me the oriiginal warren commission book
apparently 300 pages are sealed until 2100 WTF
No conspiracy here,move along now
I have never been one to confuse Thruthy for hard hitting fact finding.
[If tonight the newspoll shows Labor at LESS than 50% TPP, will the hacks in here finally admit Rudd is losing the fight over the GBNT on miners?]
Heck no! The longer it goes on the better it is for Rudd because the big miners are being isolated, and Mitch Hooke is going too far.
I kinda get the feeling that tomorrow’s OO will elicit nothing much more than jocularity when Rudd stays PM.
They’ve shot their bolt and all I can think is LOL, serves ’em right.
Scarpat@1803
You’ll have to come to one of our secret meetings to find out. The things we know are just amazing, man. The amount of stuff the public aren’t allowed to know would cause a world war if were ever leaked. That’s why we keep the worst conspiracies to ourselves. Wouldn’t want to cause the breakdown of civilised society as we know it, eh? Mum’s the word. But the meetings are great – so much vigorous agreement. You can’t get that at home. Do you need a hat or do you have your own?
BB – is that piece from Shamaham real or did you just have insight into his sh.t sheet?
[They’ve shot their bolt and all I can think is LOL, serves ‘em right.]
BB, you mean that they shot andrew bolt?
[ If tonight the newspoll shows Labor at LESS than 50% TPP, will the hacks in here finally admit Rudd is losing the fight over the GBNT on miners? ]
Yep you got me. Just like that,it’ll be all over and I too will cower in irrational fear from BAD boat people and sing the praises of the fat miner man.
The thing is Truthy, and other ‘righties’ here — Rudd and his team is doing things in the background — without media hoopla. And they are achieving lots in the process.
Today’s NBN announcement is a case in point.
Don’t think that silence means meekness — Rudd is defying the press and they HATE it. That’s why they’re being so savage.
The same goes for state government. the simple truth is the media only ever report a small amount of what is happening partly due to them not knowing what is happining or not bothering to report.
A lot of good stuff never gets reported.
Anythin less than Libs 90-10 will prove the media is not representative of the population
[ apparently 300 pages are sealed until 2100 WTF ]
That’s one hell of a sealed section, must have some saucy gear in that book.
Why does anyone still care about JFK anyway?
Paaps
GOLD
🙂
There is news of a suitcase of diaries and documents hidden by Benito Mussolini in northern italy just before he was killed by the partisans at a service station after trying to flee to Switzerland at the end of WW2. An historians’ dream, if it’s true.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/mussolinis-secret-suitcase-revealed-near-swiss-border-20100619-ynwe.html
No BK, it was a fake.
NBN and PPL are two very good positives for Rudd. So much for do nothing. And the main source of the do nothing jibes, the CPRS is not law for one reason alone- the libs squibbed on their deal and knifed Turdbull. Hardly Rudd’s fault
this was a more truthful report.
http://www.news.com.au/money/superannuation/mining-industry-doom-ads-referred-to-asic/story-e6frfmdi-1225881660425
[Why does anyone still care about JFK anyway?]
I think human beings, by our very nature, we hate or are fasciated by enigmas, puzzles and unanswered questions.
So we all want an answer that pleases our sensibilities. Even when we know better. Elvis, Tut Ankh Amun, JFK, King Arthur etc. etc.
Thus we all wonder about Newspoll. Shanas has sown the seeds of doubt, and because we hate uncertainty, we spend hours or even days arguing over it.
It is the human condition.
Shameham and his cronies realise that NOW is their best chance to get at Rudd. Once the RSPT issue is sorted and some of the Green parkers return to the fold, they’ll be left pissing in the wind as they have been up until a few months ago
That’s fascinated
Did anyone else hear Bob Brown plunking for a Green/Coalition Govt. yesterday on van Onselen’s spot.
Brown said that Milne had worked well with a Tassie Lib Govt. and that he was a country kid and knew Country Party politics then.
St Bob is now the consummate politician and spruiking for all he’s worth.
I posted to that 7 story … it has been a long while, at least half an hour and it hasn’t appeared. I just asked if it was censored because it didn’t agree with the slant they want. I wonder if I’ll get a response?
BH@1893
Geez, he must have erased Adele Carles from the memory banks 🙂
Audio here:
BH I sent Bob a very disgruntled email saying I was no longer planning to vite green in the senate because his irresponsible statements were helping to get a nutter like Abbott elected and then they will NEVER get any action on climate change.
BH @ 1836
If that sort of leading question was asked as part of a survey, then it is very near ‘push polling’ and illegitimate as a proper survey methodology. The Federal seat of Petrie, correct me if I am wrong, covers the northerns suburbs of Brisbane and was won by the ALP in 2007, so it is definitely a target for the Liberals to win back in 2010, and I would be very interested to see who publishes this bogus poll result, if that is the standard of their questions.
mexican 1861
Just create some positive moderate/conservative policies with substance and a leader who will be competent, efficient, effective and appealing to a broadcross section of society (as much as possible) and who isnt a wet bleeding heart or a right wing lunatic.
Is that too much to ask?
[BH I sent Bob a very disgruntled email saying I was no longer planning to vite green in the senate because his irresponsible statements were helping to get a nutter like Abbott elected and then they will NEVER get any action on climate change.]
Me too, jenauthor – but all you get back is one of those form replies that royorbison dislikes.
Hey Frank what will tonights Newspoll be?