Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor

Courtesy of Ghost Who Votes on Twitter, Newspoll has Labor recovering to a 51-49 lead on two-party preferred (up from 50-50 a fortnight ago), but back down two points to their 35 per cent nadir on the primary vote with the Coalition also down two points to 41 per cent. The big show is the Greens – up four to 16 per cent. More to follow.

UPDATE: Full tables from Mumble. Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings have reached a new low, with approval down three points to 36 per cent and disapproval up three to 54 per cent. However, the news for Tony Abbott is even worse: approval down five to 37 per cent and disapproval up four to 49 per cent. All this cancels each other out on preferred prime minister, with Rudd’s lead steady on 49-33.

Also out today was the weekly Essential Research, which had Labor’s lead down slightly from 52-48 to 51-49. Both leaders’ approval ratings have plunged – Rudd’s net rating is negative for the first time. Good news for the government though with 58 per cent rating a returning of “laws similar to WorkChoices” under Tony Abbott as “likely”. Forty-five per cent express themselves “concerned”, and 43 per cent say their views are closer to the unions than to Tony Abbott against 24 per cent for the other way round. Forty-six per cent say ending unfair dismissal protections and restoring individual contracts would make them less likely to vote for the Coalition against 14 per cent more likely.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,189 comments on “Newspoll: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. I spoke to a miner (I’m in Broken Hill). They are genuinely worried about the RSPT causing job losses in the mine here.

  2. Dio

    I spoke to a minor (Im not in broken hill) and they are genuinely worried about the RSPT not getting respect by Abbott and leading to NO JOBs when they get older.

    What say you?

  3. Shows

    Nice clip. That 1986 verisimilitude is a bit close to home though; I think I had a pink tie just like that one back in those days 😉

  5. It’s a funny advert, but there is also a factual basis to it, the mining industry always says the next government reform is going to do them in.

    Compare that to the mining lobby advert which strongly implies that it was the mining industry that pulled the country through the GFC, which is a blatant lie.

  6. [lol

    *cough* GST *cough*

    Thought the RSPT was in the Henry Review, but you are saying the govt invented it.]

    The GST replaced existing taxes.. it was Tax Reform.

    What Rudd is doing is just jacking up existing taxes or inventing new ones like this GBNT on miners.

    How did Howard get 10 budget surpluses but Rudd can’t even manage to get one SINGLE one?

  7. [ I spoke to a miner (I’m in Broken Hill). They are genuinely worried about the RSPT causing job losses in the mine here. ]

    Point him to the link Shows just posted.

  9. [Did anybody else hear today that Obama is not coming? I heard this on Sunrise.]

    We already knew he wasn’t coming… Rudd promised it so it was clearly going to be bullshit.

    Obama’s got better things to do then go on meets and greets with pompous world leaders after nothing more than a photoshoot in the run up to an election.

  10. Incidentally, that CFMEU advert was made by Manic Media which is (or was?) Charles Firth’s company (he started The Chaser).

  11. I spoke to a miner (I’m in Broken Hill). They are genuinely worried about the RSPT causing job losses in the mine here.

    This is one of your sillier statements, Diog.

    You spoke to one miner, who works at a mine digging up a marginal seam of ore (Broken Hill’s best days for mining are decades past).

    I presume you corrected his misapprehension with facts and what most top economists and economic commentators are saying – the the RSPT is sound policy – or did you just say, “Yeah mate. It’s terrible”?

  12. [I spoke to a miner (I’m in Broken Hill). They are genuinely worried about the RSPT causing job losses in the mine here.]

    Yes I keep telling the Labor Hacks in here this is going to backfire like Mark Lathams Logging policy, but they just won’t listen.

    Head goes into sand whenever you tell them something they don’t want to hear. Then they spend 3 hours trying to tell me this GBNT on miners is good for the country… what rot, what rubbish and it’s simply not believable out here in voter land.

  13. [How did Howard get 10 budget surpluses ]
    Easy, by introducing the GST (which meant cutting grants to the states) and by selling Telstra.

  14. [Head goes into sand whenever you tell them something they don’t want to hear.]
    No one believes you anymore because you tell too many lies.

  15. [You spoke to one miner, who works at a mine digging up a marginal seam of ore (Broken Hill’s best days for mining are decades past).]

    Wait till the election, maybe the message will be a little clearer for you so you can pull your head out of the sand.

    What you Labor hacks WANT to be believed out here in voter land, and what is the actual case are to totally different things. You can talk up the miners tax as much as you like but you are going to get burned in miner country, thats a reality Labor will need to come to grips with.

  16. How did Howard get 10 budget surpluses but Rudd can’t even manage to get one SINGLE one?

    A little thing called the GFC, which wrecked economies all over the globe, except Australia’s, because Rudd took proper precautions and instituted job-saving policies that now leave us as the economic envy of the world.

  17. [Easy, by introducing the GST (which meant cutting grants to the states) and by selling Telstra.]

    Did Rudd get rid of the GST did he? When did that happen?

  18. 3051

    I spoke to a banker who lends to miners (I am in the city) and he says that they are still looking for as much finance as the bank is prepared to offer because they have many, many projects to get off the ground and the past two weeks of RSPT argy bargy has made no difference to their appetite for investment.

  20. [Did Rudd get rid of the GST did he? When did that happen?]
    He will do it on the day you tell the truth. Which I agree, is probably never.

  21. [South Australian businesswoman Cheryl Bart has been appointed to the ABC Board.]
    She was on the Adelaide Film Festival board when I worked there. Mike Rann appointed her to the board when the festival was restarted. I always thought she was from Sydney, she was constantly flying back and forth.

  25. I for one cannot see the mining industry doing a deal.
    From their perspective, why would they? Yabbott has promised no increase in tax. In fact he thinks they pay too much.
    I reckon they’ll hold out in hope that Yabbott will win the election then lobby to pay less tax or perhaps that has been offered by team Yabbott already.
    Hence, their own submission suggestion of broadening the GST tax base and raising the GST substantially to plug the mining revenue hole.

  27. [ShowsOn – great ad – is it getting much air time?]
    Don’t know. It was only released today as far as I know.

  28. Truthy still living in economic ga ga land. that deficit was run up to save jobs and due to both the nature of the spending and the recovery of the economy Australia is on the road back to balanced budgets.

    The RSPT is set up to enable the opportunity to reduce the corporate tax burden on the Australian business community

    but there is one thing about that place called Ga Ga laner. Truth is usally stopped at the border and locked up as an illegal AS.

  29. When does any business group ever offer to agree to pay anymore for anything?

    Except to pay themselves more bonuses, whether they are performing or not.

    And before any crazy laissez faire types say, “their bounses are linked to market performance”

    Yes, I’d agree if their bonuses were linked to peformance over and above the average for their sector, not just riding the benefits of a bull market.

    Business never wants to pay for anything, yet it wants the benefits of everything.

    They screamed, when women were campaigning to get the same pay as men. “Can’t afford it” was the cry, “it’ll send us broke!”

    OK, then, just decrease the men’s wages down to the women’s level and everyone will be equal. Not a chance.

    They fought the FBT, they fought the capital gains tax, they fought the petroleum tax, they fought superannuation (as if they had to pay it, not that it would be swapped for future wage increases) etc etc etc.

    Yet, when they are in trouble, out comes the hand for govt money.

    Oh they are in favour of tax increases, as long as the PAYG mugs have to pay for it, not them.

  30. My point is that miners are genuinely worried about the tax and will vote accordingly. She said all her colleagues were also worried about their jobs.

    [I presume you corrected his misapprehension with facts and what most top economists and economic commentators are saying – the the RSPT is sound policy – or did you just say, “Yeah mate. It’s terrible”?]

    I maintained a polite silence on the matter. My view is that the RSPT will be good on balance for the country but will be bad for the miners. You can’t get $9B of tax a year out of an industry and say it won’t affect the industry.

  31. [You can’t get $9B of tax a year out of an industry and say it won’t affect the industry.]
    You can if it shifts the tax burden to the most profitable mines, and removes it from smaller mining companies that run more marginal mines, or who are trying to start new mines.

  32. Dee:
    1. There is, ultimately, going to be an increased mining tax. It’s too big a honey pot. Even Abbott will expect more revenue.
    2. Things could get a lot worse if the miners have to deal with the greens after the election. I would just love to be a fly on the wall when Twiggy meets Bob and realises that Bob doesn’t give a s… about him and his poxy mines.
    3. Miners also have to worry about the shape of a new ETS.
    4. Although I think the miners are amoral cretins, I don’t think that the miners want to wade too deeply into an Australian election campaign. It looks very, very banana republicish. Could also backfire spectacularly if Rudd gets to play the patriotism card.
    5. The Miners really don’t think that Abbott is going to win.

    I could be wrong, of course. But don’t be distracted by the strength of the yelling and screaming on either side. When it comes time to make a deal, it will happen in a flash. That’s what these guys do.

  33. Shows On

    and allows a more flatter economic development line that spreads both growth and capital demand

    But i reckon Dio knew that and was just testing

    🙂

  34. I wonder what this reader thinks when he reads posts by Troothy, Divif & GP? It would be certainly interesting. I hope he decides to respond if her reads this!

    [As an avid reader of pollbludger and pollytics, this is not new to me but well done for allerting the general public. I hope many people read your article and appreciate the truth. I will be emailing to all my friends
    nick | malvern east – March 04, 2010, 7:26AM ]

    http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/insulation-fire-risk-was-worse-before-rebate-20100303-pivv.html?comments=73

  35. Aristotle
    True! So with that in mind do you think that the miners will do a deal knowing what’s on offer from Yabbott?

  36. Since the 1850s there have been to things that have never changed

    The mining sector claiming the Government Taxes are going to finish them off

    The mining secrtor has also made massive profits due to the amount of good dirt

  37. SO

    [You can if it shifts the tax burden to the most profitable mines, and removes it from smaller mining companies that run more marginal mines, or who are trying to start new mines.]

    Yep right. If that was true, you could apply the same logic to any other industry and tax the most profitable ones and remove tax from the marginal operations and rake in billions of extra tax dollars while doing no harm.

    That’s magic pudding economics.

  40. [Yep right. If that was true, you could apply the same logic to any other industry]
    Wrong. Other industries aren’t like mining because what is being mined already has a value that needs to be covered by the mining company.

  41. Truthy 3026

    That’s right, he didn’t have to introduce any new taxes, infact he didn’t do much at all. Reaped all the revenue from an improving economy, the GST, rising inflation. In addition, he cut spending to services, allowed other government services and infrastructure to rundown and deteriorate badly and then used the money to bribe miidle and high income people with welfare. Oh of course, he offered pretty big grants to home-buyers which fuelled a property boom, leading to higher interest rates, greater Capital Gains revenue.

    Boy do I miss that do nothing Howard and Government.

  42. Is anyone watching The Nation on Sky News?
    I have never seen so much bile as that spewing forth from Stewart Robert (Lib MP) and David Oldfield. David Marr said to Oldfield, “How much hate can you contain?”

  43. [True! So with that in mind do you think that the miners will do a deal knowing what’s on offer from Yabbott?]

    Dee, the big miners will kick and scream up until election day. Their preferred option is to ensure the defeat of the Rudd government.

    The deal they want is to have no new tax at all and they’ll say and do anything to get that result.

    We may well end up with some sort of “deal”, but that won’t stop them campaigning for a Coalition victory.

  44. [miners are genuinely worried about the tax and will vote accordingly. She said all her colleagues were also worried about their jobs.]

    Miners have more cause to worry about their jobs due to a) global credit crunch reducing capital available for exploration and development of mines b) lack of infrastructure to support exploration and development of mines than c) a tax on supersized profits that will only occur if and when exploration and development of said mine is obscenely successful.

    Some mining companies have a great deal of difficulty securing finance because of a number of factors, some beyond their control and others of a less benign nature, and the RSPT is a convenient smokescreen to hide behind when projects are shelved due to inability to establish funding.

  45. Bob Katter’s Hat
    [A spokesman for the Minister says Mr West has become frustrated with political process and the daily commute from Campbelltown has also taken a toll on his family.]
    Surely there has got to be more to it than this??

  46. Gus

    [and allows a more flatter economic development line that spreads both growth and capital demand]

    That applies to other industries as well.

    [Other industries aren’t like mining because what is being mined already has a value that needs to be covered by the mining company.]

    Yep right. That will make all the difference.

  47. [Yep right. That will make all the difference.]
    So you don’t understand what this tax is for.

    Duly noted.

  49. I must say Spiers was quite fair in his moderation in the Nation program on asylum seekers.
    I had forgotten what ban unmittigated scumbag David Oldield is. Perfect credentials for a 2UE shock jock.

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