South Australian election live

10.31pm. Antony Green on Twitter writes the swing was 1.7 per cent in marginal Labor seats, 7.7 per cent in safe Labor seats and 11.3 per cent in very safe Labor seats.

10.28pm. As the upper house count has progressed to 43.6 per cent, the ABC projection has consistently pointed to four Labor, four Liberals and one Greens, with Family First and Dignity for Disability taking the last two seats. The final seat in particular is often a lottery, so I expected Dignity for Disability might fade from the picture, but it’s looking firm.

10.10pm. Isobel Redmond says they’re only three votes behind in Bright, but the ABC computer is now saying Labor retain. However, the current score is 7931 to 7887, which is surely close enough that the Liberals might claw it back on postals.

9.00pm. For those who have just joined us. Labor have a clear 23 seats of 47, plus have almost certainly won Newland and have their nose in front in Bright (ABC computer now says Labor ahead). The Liberals have a clear 18 seats, having gained Norwood, Morialta and, in the big surprise for the night, Adelaide, plus Chaffey from Karlene Maywald. Labor have surprisingly managed to retain in Light and Mawson, plus held on well in Hartley. It is still unclear whether Mount Gambier will be won by the Liberal candidate or independent Don Pegler. It looks like all three independents are back: Kris Hanna looks home in Mitchell, Geoff Brock has retained Frome, and Bob Such as expected retained Fisher.

8.45pm. Psephos in comments points out that all four defeated candidates are women, which could become five if Fox loses in Bright.

8.43pm. On raw figures, Chloe Fox is 1.8 per cent ahead, with preferences from five booths in.

8.42pm. Kevin Foley on ABC says a big final booth in Mawson has put to rest any doubts there.

8.34pm. There are no actual preference figures in from Bright, so who knows.

8.29pm. See-sawing ABC computer now has Liberal ahead in Bright, so it’s clearly right down to the wire there.

8.27pm. ABC now calling Chaffey for Liberal.

8.21pm. Liberal now ahead in Mount Gambier, according to ABC.

8.21pm. ABC now has Labor ahead in Bright.

8.20pm. The ABC isn’t calling it, but it doesn’t look real good for Karlene Maywald in Chaffey, with the Liberal candidate on 46.9 per cent of the primary vote.

8.18pm. Unless there’s a late surprise, a real happy evening for the Labor party room, a lot of whom didn’t care for Jane Lomax-Smith.

8.14pm. Bothersomely slow counts in three non-major party contests: Mount Gambier, Mitchell and Chaffey. Very good result for Geoff Brock, easily home.

8.12pm. ABC actually has Liberal ahead in Bright. If you were a Liberal optimist, you could add that to Adelaide, Morialta and Norwood and hope for a late surprise in Newland or Mawson.

8.07pm. And Davenport back in the Liberal column.

8.06pm. ABC computer calling Chaffey a Liberal gain.

7.55pm. Finally word for Bright, and it seems to be going according to script, with Chloe Fox set to hold albeit narrowly. Bruce Hawker says with all booths in they are fractionally behind on the primary vote.

7.48pm. In a huge boilover, the ABC computer calls Adelaide for Liberal: 20.6 per cent counted, 13.9 per cent swing, 10.2 per cent margin. So the Liberals have gained Adelaide, Norwood and Morialta. Mawson swinging still further to Labor.

7.47pm. Bruce Hawker has newer figures for Mitchell: Labor 32, Hanna 29, Liberal 29. So we’re back to a tight situation where Hanna vs Liberal for second will decide it.

7.45pm Peter van Onselen discussing Davenport: their figures have the Liberals 3.5 per cent ahead. However, this is still only two booths.

7.43pm. ABC calls Mitchell for Kris Hanna – Labor is in THIRD place, meaning their preferences would call teh result. Sky News has newer figures for Mawson than the ABC: 9.7 per cent counted, and Labor still ahead.

7.42pm. Light continuing to firm for Labor. However, it’s frustratingly slow going in Mawson and Adelaide.

7.41pm. However, their Liberal talking head says they’re still hopeful in Newland, although that certainly isn’t borne out by the ABC figures.

7.40pm. Bruce Hawker says Labor has won, with at worst five seats lost.

7.39pm. Err … ABC computer calls Davenport for Labor.

7.34pm. Count still very slow in Adelaide.

7.27pm. The ABC computer says 8 per cent swing to Labor in Hartley, which makes me wonder.

7.26pm. ABC computer calls Frome for Liberal.

7.24pm. ABC computer calls Light for Labor. Their primary vote is up 5 per cent in Gawler East. So the figures on which the ABC is basing this represent all the areas of the electorate.

7.23pm. Taking a step back. Labor have held Hartley and Newland, but lost Norwood and Morialta. They’re ahead in Light and Mawson. However, Adelaide is apparently a problem for them, and they’re not out of the woods in Florey. They might of course gain Mitchell, but it’s too early to say. So after a scary start, you can’t rule out them scraping home.

7.20pm. ABC computer calls Hartley for Labor.

7.16pm. Even with 17 per cent counted in Light, Labor are still just ahead. Furthermore, I would have thought outer-suburban Smithfield Plains would be the sort of area that was swinging heavily to the Liberals, but the figures are in and it’s largely budged.

7.15pm. First booth from Norwood has 13.5 per cent swing – I’d say you can write that one off already.

7.12pm. Independent Don Pegler doing very well in Mount Gambier, though too close to call.

7.11pm. ABC computer calls Morialta for Liberal.

7.10pm. First booth in Mawson swings big to Labor, but this is an area where a lot of new housing developments are appearing.

7.09pm. First figure from Adelaide bears up what van Onselen said: 13.6 per cent swing to Liberal, against 10.2 per cent margin.

7.08pm. Good news for Labor at last: ABC computer calls Newland for them.

7.05pm. Labor has edged ahead in Newland; Morialta swing back below double figures.

7.03pm. Still encourage for Labor in Light, but I expect that to reverse once we get Munno Para and Smithfield Plains in: Gawler itself might be a wild card.

7.01pm. Peter van Onselen says scrutineers tell him Labor is in very big trouble indeed in Adelaide.

7.00pm. Overall 2PP swing at the moment is 4.2 per cent, but that doesn’t tell you much: clearly the huge swing to Labor in Adelaide in 2006 is bouncing back, whereas the country is remaining relatively stable as it did last time.

6.58pm. Swing coming down in Chaffey: now extremely close.

6.55pm. Double digit swings in all Adelaide seats unless you count Light, which has turned from swing to Labor to slight swing to Liberal, and Newland, which is still a 7.0 per cent swing in a 5.2 per cent seat Labor needed to hold.

6.54pm. Should still be adding a note of caution on the earliness of these figures. One booth and 1.5 per cent counted in Florey.

6.53pm. First figures provide no evidence of a Nationals boilover in Flinders.

6.52pm. Double-digit swing to Liberal in Florey, enough to make a safe seat marginal.

6.44pm. ABC computer has a result for Frome, but ECSA doesn’t. It’s clearly the sort of booth where Brock barely registered at the by-election – he’s no 13.6 per cent but has a big swing.

6.43pm. The Light booths are Gawler River and Sandy Creek, exactly where Labor would expect to be doing well demographically as they change from rural to peri-urban.

6.41pm. First results from Chaffey not good for Karlene Maywald – 25.9 per cent swing against 17 per cent margin, although still only 2.2 per cent counted.

6.37pm. Actually a swing TO Labor in Light, but that was with 1.0 per cent counted. ABC computer is struggling.

6.30pm. First booth in Light swings 7.4 per cent to Liberal.

6.20pm. Tim Gartrell on Sky News says on the basis of the exit poll that there is “something in the thesis” of strong swings in inner Adelaide, with smaller ones on the fringes. That might be good news for Labor in Hartley, Morialta and Mawson, but it could also mean they’re in trouble in Adelaide.

6pm. Welcome to the Poll Bludger’s live coverage of the SA election. Sky News has an exit poll showing 53-47 to Liberal, but this is presumably of marginal seats so it’s hard to say what it means. If anyone’s been discussing this in the previous comments thread, please provide any intelligence you may have on this in this new thread.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

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