EMRS has kicked off the Tasmanian election campaign with a poll showing a remarkable surge in support for the Greens, who after distribution of the undecided are only four points behind Labor. Labor are down two points on their already weak showing in November to 31 per cent, but the Liberals are also down five to 39 per cent. The Greens are up six points to 27 per cent. If reflected on March 20, which I personally wouldn’t put money on, the result would probably be 19 seats evenly divided between the majors and six for the Greens. The number of respondents was 867, for a margin of error of about 3.3 per cent.
Kevin Bonham
Would it be possible for Wilkie to get in on greens preferences if he is able to last long enough?
Dave @ 47, I think it’s less likely the greens will pull 2 seats in Franklin than in Denison, where it will be a stretch.
We can probably take it as given that party leaders Hodgman (lib) & McKim (grn), and Lab deputy Giddings are all returned. The remaining 2 seats are currently held by Lab, but these were handed over to the 4th and 5th 2006 election Labor candidates after Lennon then Paula Wreidt resigned. I can’t see the Lab vote collapsing to the extent that only Giddings is returned. Brother of former federal member for Bass, David O’Byrne is running an expensive media campaign and will likely gain the second labor seat. Paula Wreidt struggled to hold out a lib candidate who has now landed an upper house seat, but this showing points toward the fifth seat going to lib Jacquie Petrusma. The redrawing of Frankin’s electoral boundaries–cutting off some of the more solid labor areas around Bridgewater–might be giving succour to the greens but the population growth in aspirational Kingborough (Kingston, Margate) is more lib territory. I’m a Green voter, so I hope I’m wrong!
[Kevin Bonham
Would it be possible for Wilkie to get in on greens preferences if he is able to last long enough?]
Yes provided he can get a big primary (ideally at least 8% though I am thinking now that 7% could do it) and the distribution of votes between the other parties is favourable to him.
There is a figure of 6 for Independents in Denison but it is impossible to know whether these are Wilkie voters or glorified don’t-knows.
For the Greens to win two in any electorate requires not only a very high vote for them, but a very low vote for one of the major parties – which need to be restricted to 1 seat. That was possible in 2002 when the Libs were at such a low ebb, and even in 2006, but its hard to see the Libs being that low anywhere again. Could Labor’s vote collapse to the point they’re restricted to 1 seat in either Denison or Franklin? I suppose theoretically, but both contain such strongholds of Labor support that I can’t really see it happening.
Hopefully what this poll means is the Greens will pick up a seat in Braddon, which would certainly be very nice. In a balance of power situation being able to share the workload between 5 rather than 4 would be very useful.
Cheers, i am intrigued to see how things will actually turn out.
Ok, thanks for that. I was wondering why people only had Denison as the only possible place for a second Green. Thanks for the info.
49 streetcred i am going to up set you I happened to Like Mr. lennon, got things done he did not speak as eloquent as some but he just did it.
38 Rox
Posted Wednesday, February 24, 2010 at 4:00 pm | Permalink
Wonderful result. Many many of us want a minority government – and are more capable of expressing ourselves than my say, who is obviously a product of current education policy.
HOW RUDE i have been a labor person since the liberals sent my husband national service with the help of a barrell i to can think for my self. thankyou
As long as the Libs stay ahead they can legitimately run the case for a stark choice at the election. It’s either a Liberal majority or chaos. Hodgman should also be demanding that Bartlett completely and totally rule out a coalition with the greens. He always sounds like he’s got his fingers crossed whenever he ‘rules it out’.
38 Rox
Posted Wednesday, February 24, 2010 at 4:00 pm | Permalink
Wonderful result. Many many of us want a minority government – and are more capable of expressing ourselves than my say, who is obviously a product of current education policy.
I who is obviously a product of current education policy.
am 62 so little you know.
If you are a liberal well just look at abbott i do not want any influence in this state from him and if you are a green
Well we will just be sitting aroung waiting for the lights to go out
This state is doing fine we have a good financial growth better than most of the bigger states just because some people dont like David. Well thats ok the proud labor party are bigger than there leader its policy that counts and looking after the People of this state no matter.
Desert Fox does not the above say libs lost 5 points. they i think will keep going backwards
6% is a solid base for Wilkie. Can any Hobartians say how his campaign is going there? I’d love to see him get in.
40 vera Hi there how are you.
not too many tas people know about this site re lib
but i notice a few comments now so lets see
If we can get just one or two more seats we are o.k. i think.
last time around from memory this was the same scenario
Tasmanians panic when they see that the polls
If you have to keep in mind the hare Clarke system of voting.
The greens a re very negative but Mc Kim is not quite as much as others in past years.
but still they dont seem to have any policies on real sustainable industries
so i could see job loses here They would like to close the poker machines down
Now thats sounds great as none of us like them but the revenue that comes from that is in the thousand and thousands, So where does the extra money then come from
us the tax payers in our car rego our licence fees park fees ( national) etc.
so how would that work and Federal Hotels do so much for this state with tourism
if it was not for them i dont think we would have the facilities to have big tourist industry all people benefit from that
we shall see
61 my say – sorry that was a bit harsh, but really, I couldn’t quite grasp your points yesterday. Today I can, and I apologise.
[its policy that counts and looking after the People of this state no matter.]
Exactly, and if you could see what they’ve done to where I work, you’d understand why I want Bartlett out. If only Bacon had stayed alive.
i dont think with respect that Mr. Bacon did everything there where people behind the scenes that worked very hard for us. Mr bacon lovley man but he had lots of help. beleive me.
A vote for liberal is a vote for Abbott and work choices, I am sure he would try with the help of other liberals to do so. So then your work place would be worse.
Rosanna the grass is never greener beleive me i know.
I think the liberals cannot help them selves it is their philosophy to look after Big business first and us last.
but please your self it s a democracy. But i still think the federal liberals would have allot to say i had had thoughts of liberal my self during the water thing but over that now. When i actully worked out my bill and the rates it was the same.
And of course Will Hodgman when i wrote to him early last year on this subject agreed our water ways needed to change. so must beleive in the same policy.
AS i said their policies are not different it just the liberal philosophy i cannot stand
What did Mrs. Thatcher say ( english p.m. torries) something about we dont need community etc. any way i advise you to look up the conservative saying. on the Thatcher web site
They the liberals worry me i know its only tassie but
but when it s all boiled down i thinks its survival of the fitest with the liberals did you see where abbott now want to penalise people on disablity allowanced reduce pensions this was this week only. So you see a liberal is a liberal no matter where they are.
[A vote for liberal is a vote for Abbott and work choices, I am sure he would try with the help of other liberals to do so.]
Mysay, how does the Tasmanian election have anything to do with Tony Abbott? Given that state-based IR schemes have largely been over-ridden by federal legislation, how could the Tasmanian election lead to a resurrection of WorkChoices?
[A vote for liberal is a vote for Abbott and work choices, I am sure he would try with the help of other liberals to do so.]
I really dislike the Liberals and wouldn’t ever vote for them, but this is a pile of crap.
[6% is a solid base for Wilkie. Can any Hobartians say how his campaign is going there? I’d love to see him get in.]
The problem for Wilkie is we don’t know the 6% is him, and the sample size is so small it could be grossly inaccurate anyway. For instance in the November poll there was a 6% for “Independent” in Bass that came down to 3 in this sample, and in the May 2009 poll there was a 5% for Independent in Braddon and Lyons (now running at 2 and 1 respectively).
He seems fairly active and I’ve seen a few big signs and the odd ad but it’s not like he has anything like the sign visibility of the Greens. I’ll be surprised if he gets in, I just don’t see evidence that he will get enough primary votes.
65 my say – Heavens! I’m not voting Liberal! I’m a unionist-Green/Labor. And I don’t think even the Libs would have knocked out the stuffing of my work (educationish area) as badly as this government has.
It will be a cold day in hell before I vote for the libs, nice bloke though young Will may be.
ltep @ 66 – the only thing that stopped us going WorkChoices was the Lennon government. Of course it matters.
[ltep @ 66 – the only thing that stopped us going WorkChoices was the Lennon government. Of course it matters.]
State-based IR legislation has largely been over-ridden by federal law now. This trend started with WorkChoices and has continued with Fair Work.
On Abbott and Workchoices, I think that the Howard Govt used the (Federal) corporations laws to legislate Workchoices I & II. Some of the states (or all of them, I can’t recall) challenged this Federal takeover in the High Court, but lost. So, as Itep@70 says, Federal powers to change industrial laws are stronger now and election of a Lab Govt in Tas is no guarantee of preventing a return to Workchoices, or a Lib Govt guarantee of a return.
Attacking the Tas Lib party as the party of big business ignores the Lab Govt’s ease in dealing with and supporting big-business, most notably Gunns and Federal Hotels.
sorry roxanna i missunderstood. so get out there and tell every one about
Abbotts worse than work choices”
I DONT UNDERSTAND all the legal bits and pieces all i know is that abbott stands
and the liberal party for WORKCHOICES and any thing could happen personaly i will not be risking a vote for liberals yes i like will to but.
O and remember last time all the wards that clossed and the teachers sacked.
I really think that the liberals and the greens would have not meeting point in this stare but cannot work out the federal one s i saw milne with Heffernan. cannot work that out at all.
also when you ring the greens in this state they have hung up on me if i did not agree with them so hard to debate any points.
i thought i was a voter
stare sorry STATE
Thursday, February 25, 2010 at 1:27 pm | Permalink
6% is a solid base for Wilkie. Can any Hobartians say how his campaign is going there? I’d love to see him get in.
standing for no poker machines well that sounds nice but how can all the contractual agreements be torn up over night.
and where to we get the lost revenue this would cause. Yes i hate gambling to
i have never even been to a race horse meeting.
But we would then get a raise in taxes on us by the greens also who wants this
you know i dont think they stop and think when they say. Well just get rid of pokies
How. we pick up the tab re higher fees for everything you can think of
power is expensive enough now, with out loosing more revenue.
Mr. Wilke nice man but come on who pays the bills we do.
odd ad but it’s not like he has anything like the sign visibility of the Greens. I’ll be surprised if he gets in, I just don’t see evidence that he will get enough primary votes.
but isnt he only standing on one issue
[Attacking the Tas Lib party as the party of big business ignores the Lab Govt’s ease in dealing with and supporting big-business, most notably Gunns and Federal Hotels.]
It’s not being ignored. It’s one of the hottest issues around down here, and is probably one of the factors in people’s decisions or indecision. There’s a wide perception that there isn’t enough difference between the 2 “major” parties – which is to neither’s credit.
Andrew Wilkie’s policies are here
http://www.andrewwilkie.org/content/index.php/site/policies/
If I were in Denison I’d give him a run.
Roxanna, I should have made it clear that I was addressing My Say, who said: “I think the liberals cannot help them selves it is their philosophy to look after Big business first and us last”
The “Tasmanain” Liberals have a Twitter feed.
Well i have no problem with the mill re gunns and the liberals have not either.
but the greens with liberals O gee how would that work
i would say it would not last long.
No stick with labor at least they have a similar background re the greens.
I think when the policy speeches are done then we all have a better look.
And after all Mr. Bartlett does have experience.
The state is going very well why change i can remember all the things that did change with the libs ,last time and it was not much fun.
It may seem some time ago but some of us oldies have long memories
It can be a bit petty rejecting comments on blog sites just because of the spelling. Surely, however, we can expect better of an officially registered party address. At the very least it suggests the party is not going to have much commitment to detail.
[The “Tasmanain” Liberals have a Twitter feed.]
God, how embarrassing. They only seem to have 4 followers. So much for their literacy policy, if they have one.
[Attacking the Tas Lib party as the party of big business ignores the Lab Govt’s ease in dealing with and supporting big-business, most notably Gunns and Federal Hotels.]
It’s also worth bearing in mind that the Tas Libs have in the past opposed big business to try to cosy up to small business by supporting restricted and outmoded shop trading hours laws. Seems a strange position for Liberals to take but they were particularly big on that in the 2002 election, which was one of the many reasons they got mutilated. Supermarket trading hours were expanded and the sky did not actually fall in. I believe they have just about learnt their lesson on that one by now.
William
Sad git that i am i have just followed the [Tasmanain”] liberals.
the missing link?
The most worrying story today is the one on page 3 of the mercury.
i want be chaning my vote to liberal that is for sure.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/greens-turn-tassie-politics-upside-down-20100225-p608.html
Love the article 😀
What if they had an election and no one turned up?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/02/26/2831292.htm
[It is even possible that in the Hobart-based electorate of Denison, the Greens will out-poll both major parties.]
http://www.theage.com.au/national/greens-turn-tassie-politics-upside-down-20100225-p608.html
What a watershed moment it would be if somehow the Greens picked up enough momentum to win enough seats to actually form their own minority government? It would be very interesting to see how a) they govern and b) how the majors would react. Anything is possible.
bob1234, absolutely no one is suggesting that will happen.
I imagine that even if it did happen (that the Greens won more seats than either Labor or Liberal) the two ‘majors’ would form a grand coalition and hope the Greens would collapse at the next election.
[I imagine that even if it did happen (that the Greens won more seats than either Labor or Liberal) the two ‘majors’ would form a grand coalition and hope the Greens would collapse at the next election.]
But if the majors are so confident the Greens simply are incapable of governing, wouldn’t it be in their best interests to let them demonstrate this?
No, because it would also lend an air of credibility about them for future elections. The best scenario for the majors will always be to attempt to keep the Greens from holding a ministerial position.
The problem with a grand coalition, of course, would be that it would become hard for the two majors to convince people to change their vote over at the subsequent election. They’d just hope that the Opposition Greens would stumble and do something silly so some of the support flowed back to them.
[The problem with a grand coalition, of course, would be that it would become hard for the two majors to convince people to change their vote over at the subsequent election.]
And with it, you’re endorsing a final homogeny of the major parties. Well done you true blue Labor supporter!
🙂
And let’s not forget what happened to the poor SPD in Germany after forming a grand coalition with Merkel……………
^^^ A grand coalition will only make more vote Green.
[And with it, you’re endorsing a final homogeny of the major parties. Well done you true blue Labor supporter!]
What are you talking about? I’m not ‘endorsing’ anything. I’m having a purely philosophical discussion. If you’re asking what I would personally prefer, of course a Labor/Greens or Liberal/Greens coalition would be a good option. The Greens could moderate the old parties’ tired social policy and the other partner could stop the Greens form implementing some of their whackier stuff. What I would want, though, is largely irrelevant to what I think will happen.
Rather than ‘endorsing’ the Labor/Liberal hegemony I’m just arguing it’s in their best interests to support it.
Another possible scenario is that neither Labor or Liberal win a majority but agree not to oppose the party with the most seats in the original votes on the floor of the parliament relating to government formation. This keeps the Greens away from the ‘negotiating table’.
[And let’s not forget what happened to the poor SPD in Germany after forming a grand coalition with Merkel]
Yes, but the outcome may have been worse for the SPD if they had SPD attempted to form a coalition with the Greens and the Left, or for the CDU/CSU if they’d attempted to form a coalition with the FDP and the Greens. The best outcome for both major parties was to form a grand coalition and hope the chips fell on their side at the subsequent election.
[Yes, but the outcome may have been worse for the SPD if they had SPD attempted to form a coalition with the Greens and the Left, or for the CDU/CSU if they’d attempted to form a coalition with the FDP and the Greens. The best outcome for both major parties was to form a grand coalition and hope the chips fell on their side at the subsequent election.]
And instead what has happened is the SPD crashed to a 27.9% of the total vote. Lovely.
I’m not going to continue to argue about German politics in this thread. You obviously think the SPD would’ve done much better at this election if they’d formed Government with the Greens or the Left (or both). We’ll never know. They may have done substantially worse; they may have performed about the same; they may have performed better (I doubt it).
You obviously can’t acknowledge the possible risks to the major parties in allowing the Greens to get a foot in the door.
[You obviously can’t acknowledge the possible risks to the major parties in allowing the Greens to get a foot in the door.]
The century-old establishment (ok, to be fair, it has only been hemogenic (sic?) for the past couple/few decades) might be broken? Oh dear. What a disaster for democracy.
*runs and hides from the communists under the bed*
[The century-old establishment (ok, to be fair, it has only been hemogenic (sic?) for the past couple/few decades) might be broken? Oh dear. What a disaster for democracy.]
Do you have a problem with reading comprehension? I’m not arguing, you, I or blind Freddy should be concerned or that it has anything to do with democracy.
I’m merely thinking about what the party’s are likely to think is in their best interest.
[I’m merely thinking about what the party’s are likely to think is in their best interest.]
Minority government with the Greens in the house has been done multiple times in Tasmania. A Merkel-style grand coalition hasn’t. I don’t know if you know anything about risk assessment but if I were either party i’d go with the former.
I already raised that in comment 94. I never thought a grand coalition was the most likely… I was just musing on whether it would be better for the majors than being forced to form a coalition with the Greens.