EMRS: 39-31 to Liberal in Tasmania

EMRS has kicked off the Tasmanian election campaign with a poll showing a remarkable surge in support for the Greens, who after distribution of the undecided are only four points behind Labor. Labor are down two points on their already weak showing in November to 31 per cent, but the Liberals are also down five to 39 per cent. The Greens are up six points to 27 per cent. If reflected on March 20, which I personally wouldn’t put money on, the result would probably be 19 seats evenly divided between the majors and six for the Greens. The number of respondents was 867, for a margin of error of about 3.3 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

138 comments on “EMRS: 39-31 to Liberal in Tasmania”

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  3. [If reflected on March 20, which I personally wouldn’t put money on, the result would probably be 19 seats evenly divided between the majors and six for the Greens.]
    But how can 19 be “evenly divided”?

  7. [Thank you for that, ShowsOn. I only wish that I too had nothing at all to do all day. ]
    LOL!
    [By evenly divided I obviously mean 10-9 either way.]
    Yes, that sounds very closely divided.

  8. 6 Grn seats are possible, considering that the Libs have lost Hodgman Snr in Denison and that Lab will struggle to return 3 there. But considering last election the Greens leader Peg Putt won there and the high profile anti- Ralph’s Bay campaigner Cassy O’Connor didn’t take a 2nd seat for the Greens (O’Connor was elected after Putt resigned), and considering that the Greens don’t have as high a profile 2nd candidate as O’Connor this time, 2 seats in Denison will be a stretch.

  9. *sigh* Nothing for three months and less than a month out from the election we have to make sense of *this*.

    I am treating this poll as exceedingly suss; polls in the leadup to the 2006 election also had suspicious Green spikes that never amounted to anything on polling day. Even allowing for the known effects that Tassie polls usually overestimate the firm Green vote and that the undecideds almost all go to the major parties, I still think this one is as likely or not to be rogue.

    We need more polling companies in this state.

  10. so wiliam please explain to this tas girl. We could still govern with the dam greens
    if we had too margin or error or after they hear the speeches of the two.

    whats you thoughts the Hare, clarke system is complicated and main land people do not understand it.

  11. #5

    I think any minority government will be very unstable, maybe Labor a bit less so.

    Problem is neither side has strong enough numbers to play the “stable majority government” card, so minority looks almost a certainty.

  12. 10 Kevin Bonham i have actully found people to really want labor in most say Well we are doing very well in this state and we dont want the A running our state.

    God help up what with the greens and Abbott surley they would not go for him re his stand on the guy community.

  13. [so wiliam please explain to this tas girl. We could still govern with the dam greens]
    I doubt Labor would want to try to govern with the Greens. They would probably let the Liberals try and govern, and then just snipe from the sidelines until the government falls apart.

  14. MDMConnell can you please explain how that works I hear the Premier say the government is formed on the floor of the house what does that mean

  16. EMRS’s sample sizes are good, but they do have a reputation for over-stating the Greens. I suspect this is due to the nature of the electoral contest in Tasmania, rather than EMRS’s methodology. A lot of left-leaning voters come back home to Labor at the election because they’re nervous about minority government, or because they only tell pollsters they’re voting Green as a sort of protest vote. However, the poll makes yet more clear that Labor has practically no chance of keeping its majority.

  17. [MDMConnell can you please explain how that works I hear the Premier say the government is formed on the floor of the house what does that mean]
    It means the Premier must be able to ensure the Governor they have the confidence of the lower house in order to form government.

  18. i think this was similar when Jim bacon got in i can remember pegg putt crying and saying that people had turned against them because of rumours etc.
    I think when Tasmanians really see poll s most of us so scared of the greens they go back
    to the major parties. which of course i hope is labor.
    William may if he has the time some time to look at that election i suppose its 11 years of more now. But then it may have been the one that Paul Lennon was elected in his own right.
    Crazy people i dont think a lot of people understand that abbott would be involved in policy.
    One wonders will the murcoch press explain this scenario

    Work choices could be a real posibilty for tasmanians

  20. means the Premier must be able to ensure the Governor they have the confidence of the lower house in order to form government.

    how do they know they have ???? sorry silly question i know

  21. [But considering last election the Greens leader Peg Putt won there and the high profile anti- Ralph’s Bay campaigner Cassy O’Connor didn’t take a 2nd seat for the Greens (O’Connor was elected after Putt resigned), and considering that the Greens don’t have as high a profile 2nd candidate as O’Connor this time, 2 seats in Denison will be a stretch.]

    Yes, 2 seats in Denison will be a stretch at any time and I think if they were going to do it it would have been in 2002 when the Liberals were in a complete mess. But concerning Peg Putt, although she was high-profile she was also very divisive in a way that McKim and O’Connor are not.

    It’s also worth noting that while O’Connor was a high-profile #2 at the time of the 2006 poll, her profile was more in Franklin c/- the Ralphs Bay issue. She did poll very well, over 2000 primaries – I will be interested to see how their #2 candidate this time, Hobart Deputy Lord Mayor Helen Burnet goes by comparison. I do think that some of the vote for O’Connor in 2006 could have been explained by dissatisfaction with Putt – though I am a little biased here as I was one of those dissatisfied.

    I am also not sure profile is a big deal for Greens voters anyway. I have seen some Greens candidates who were relatively low-profile and in my view not particularly good score excellent results in council and Legislative Council elections; the Green vote seems to be driven primarily by issues and demography rather than candidate profile or quality.

  23. [We could still govern with the dam greens
    if we had too margin or error or after they hear the speeches of the two.]

    What the Greens do is an imponderable: there are all kinds of reasons why it’s a good idea for them to keep their cards close to their chest until the election is out of the way. It will be open to them to demand coalition government – i.e. a certain number of Greens become cabinet ministers.

    It’s entirely conceivable that the Liberals will accept this but Labor will refuse. The Liberals might think that power is such a rare opportunity for them in Tasmania they should take it in whatever form it comes: Labor might calculate that the chaos of Liberal-Greens government would soon have people yearning for a return of majority Labor rule, to be delivered at the subsequent election (though politicians don’t always take the long-term view). The Liberals offered the Greens positions in cabinet after the ACT election in 2008 but the Greens refused, backing a Labor minority government. The federal Greens hierarchy were very displeased they had passed up this opportunity.

    Alternatively, Labor could refuse to serve even as a minority government without offering the Greens ministries, allowing the Liberals to form their own minority government – as occurred in 1996. Notably, Labor were back in power after two years. It was Labor’s position at the next two elections that they would not accept minority government, but David Bartlett has been backing away from this.

  24. [I suspect this is due to the nature of the electoral contest in Tasmania, rather than EMRS’s methodology]

    I think it is both, and also that telephone staffing quality and turnover issues either are or have been in the mix.

  25. [Alternatively, Labor could refuse to serve even as a minority government without offering the Greens ministries, allowing the Liberals to form their own minority government – as occurred in 1996.]

    Labor were easily able to refuse to serve in 1996 as the Liberals were both the incumbents and the largest party. If Labor are still the largest party after this one it will be hard for them to refuse unless there is a formal coalition to roll them.

  26. the abc refused to look at anothony assessment and where reading from EMRS
    when i rang them. what ??? is correct. William
    I kept saying and they kept telling i must of been looking at something else.
    No i said it says the 24 fev 2010 now if Anthony green is employed by the abc
    would not think they would look at that.

  27. [the abc refused to look at anothony assessment and where reading from EMRS
    when i rang them. what ??? is correct.]
    The ABC only quoted primary votes, whereas William quoted the figures if the “leaners” were distributed, and the undecideds were excluded.

  29. I would need to know how Antony’s assessment differed from that of the ABC report you heard. Perhaps you are referring to the fact that this report has Labor at 23 per cent, whereas Antony and I are saying 31 per cent. This is because EMRS publishes two sets of figures: one including those who didn’t know or refused to respond as their own category, the other removing them from the calculation altogether. In the latter case, everybody’s vote is higher. Antony and I are, of course, correct to use the latter figure, as it can be directly compared to the last election result and to other polling agencies, all of whom use this calculation as their headline figure.

  30. Mysay,

    I think Antony’s blog shows the raw PRIMARY votes (hence Labor on only 23%), whereas the 39-31-27 here is after distribution of those who chose “Undecided”.

  35. [so he an anthony green no what they are doing then]
    Careful! If you call Atony, “Athony” too often, he will have your name removed from the electoral roll.

  36. I am hoping for a coalition (or hung parliament) – the winner takes all paradigm effectively disenfranchises over 50% of the voters who get no say in government.

    I’d be happy if the best brains of all three parties formed a cabinet – the very few real differences between the three parties can be managed – the use of forests, reduce or abolish pokies, level of land taxes being the more prominent.

    Casey

  37. Wonderful result. Many many of us want a minority government – and are more capable of expressing ourselves than my say, who is obviously a product of current education policy.

  38. [Wonderful result. Many many of us want a minority government ]
    So are you just going to vote for whichever party has the lowest poll ratings? 😀

  40. I see Antony is still saying that the undecided rates in EMRS are not that much higher than Newspoll state poll results.

    I believe I refuted that here: http://tasmaniantimes.com/index.php/article/labor-fails-to-stop-the-rot (towards the end of the article). Although comparing the 23% undecided rate with that of Newspoll is not comparing apples with apples because EMRS uses a different figure as its headline rate, even if you use the comparable headline rate the EMRS undecided rates for Tasmania are still significantly higher than state newspoll results for other states, possibly close to double.

    Furthermore when Morgan used to poll here they used to get undecided rates in single figures.

  42. we have seen this before, people see the polls and know with the greens
    it would be a case of who turns the lights out and then back to labor.
    i am very surprised but relieved about the liberal vote
    WE do not want abbotts influence here in our wonderful state.

  43. From that SMH article:

    [ The poll suggests the Liberals are set to control a precarious minority government with 12 MPs in the state’s 25-member assembly

    …

    The Greens are now set to add a seat in Denison (Hobart) and Braddon (northwest), taking them to six seats from four.

    …

    Labor will be reduced from 14 seats to eight ]

    Anyone see a slight problem with that? 😉

  45. 44 Bird of paradox they do not know we know about William and Anthony
    same old tricks. But the abc coverage tonight re the federal alp was the best i have seen in months and months. O i wonder what today date is.

  46. Is Denison the only seat that it is possible that might return 2 Greens? Franklin seems to be at least as likely to me.
    Also many Green supporters think so too.

  47. I’ve been voting in Tasmania since the early 70s. This far out from polling day, with the undecided voters at around 23%, I should be reluctant to make any prediction. However, it does look as though the Greens are enjoying more support than they have for many years, and with the current (well timed) fears about eucalyptus plantation pollution I would be surprised to see any party elected to a clear majority.

  48. my say – From what I’ve heard Federal influence doesnt count for much in Tasmania. Both the major parties are basically beholden to Gunns to the point where the Greens are increasingly seen these days as the only real opposition party. After the farce of Lennon’s tenure as premier a coalition with the Green’s may be the only way of introducing some ethics back into the political system. Seems to be working in the ACT.

  50. [Is Denison the only seat that it is possible that might return 2 Greens? Franklin seems to be at least as likely to me.
    Also many Green supporters think so too.]

    Yes, they thought so last time too.

    The question in Franklin, putting all the dubious polls aside (and the electorate by electorate breakdown of this one just cannot be taken seriously) is who they would get the second seat off. The Libs almost got two last time and are building, while Labor got three last time and need to shed 14% to drop below two quotas. So which major party would only get one? I cannot see it happening.

    I think 2 Greens in Denison is highly unlikely too, but still possible. If it happened, they’d most likely do it by beating the Libs to the Libs’ second seat on a big swing from Labor and preferences from Wilkie.

    The 24-31-40-6 Denison breakdown is rubbish. If they get within 10 points of that they’ll have done extremely well.

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