Newspoll: 52-48

The latest Newspoll shows Labor’s lead at 52-48, equal lowest since the election of the Rudd government. It is the first time the government has trailed on the primary vote, by 40 per cent (steady on the previous poll) to 41 per cent (up three points) – the previous 52-48 result from October 30-November 1 having had the parties on 41 per cent each. The Greens are steady on 12 per cent, with “others” down from 10 per cent to 7 per cent. Kevin Rudd has suffered no damage on preferred prime minister, leading 58 per cent to 26 per cent (both up one). More to follow.

Other news:

• Essential Research has Labor’s two-party lead at 56-44 for the third week running. It also finds that while the majority of Labor and Coalition voters are firm if not fruity, 24 per cent of Greens voters (double the rate for the majors) “might consider another party and leader closer to an election”. Seventy per cent say politicians “should not be giving advice on moral issues”. Fifty-seven per cent support the Shopping Centre Council’s call for a ban on politicians campaigning in shopping centres. Respondents want a republic but not a new flag, nor (what the hell is wrong with people?) a new national anthem.

• Political party financial disclosure returns, such as they are, have been published. Labor and the Coalition parties were evenly matched on receipts, Labor receiving $42.9 million for 2008-09 against $38.4 million for the Liberals and $5.2 million for the Nationals – sharply down on last year due to the absence in the period of so much as a by-election. The Australian counts $4.65 million in donations to Labor from unions (the opposition makes it $11 million), the Coalition parties received $800,000 from Clive Palmer, and the Westfield Corporation evenly divided $230,000 between the two. Stephen Mayne in Crikey points to the disparity between the Queensland and WA branches of the ALP in a period when both had state elections: $14.3 million in receipts and $15.8 million in expenses for the victorious party in Queensland, against $4 million and $4.5 million for the defeated party in WA. Labor is $7 million in debt, the Liberals $4.2 million.

• Tim Dick of the Sydney Morning Herald reviews the recall election issue. All of the American examples cited refer to individual offices – a very different matter from dissolving an assembly, which the Coalition proposes to look at once in government. However, the article also notes the Canadian province of British Columbia has allowed members to recall their local MPs since 1995. Only one attempt managed to procure the required 40 per cent of voters’ signatures, and the MP in question obviated the need for a recall election (as distinct from a by-election) by resigning. In the current environment in New South Wales, that would obviously inspire efforts to knock off enough Labor MPs to cost the government its majority.

• Toni Bell of the Manning River Times reports John Turner, Nationals member for the NSW state seat of Myall Lakes, has announced his 23-year parliamentary career will end at next year’s election. Turner lost the party’s deputy leadership in 2003 and was dumped as Shadow Mineral Resources and Lands Minister in December 2008. The electorate, which covers the north coast north of Newcastle and south of Port Macquarie, will presumably become of interest to the Liberals.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,522 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48”

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  1. [My say]

    i think the WW sales number comes out after each month

    I think the advertising idustry uses the audit bureau of circulation to verify figures

    thingys like morgan etc ask people what mags they read but dont compile numbers

  3. Came in at the end of Abbott presser “just in” on Sky. Seems he’s a bit worried that the govt might do a deal with the greens on the ETS. 😉

  4. [Look at how many responses people like PY, truthy and bob get – and it’s not because we respect their points of view.]

    All three suffer from attention deficit disorder in the real world. As zoomster says, most people are probably are in violent agreement with what you post.

  5. [I expect the business community heavies will be telling Abbott that they won’t wear such an economic primitive as Finance Minister.]
    They could give Fletcher communications, and move Tony SMith to Finance.

  6. [I expect the business community heavies will be telling Abbott that they won’t wear such an economic primitive as Finance Minister.]

    I expect they’ll be saying they want the government to control the portfolio, and not Barnaby…

  7. So the coalition policy of buring cables to free up land in order to plant trees requires 13,200 square kms of trees to be planted at a cost of over 15billion. has this been talked about anywhere? plus the 3.2billion makes the policy cost 20+++ billion

  8. [Some Labor people certainly think Abbott is a serious threat. I don’t, I think he’ll crash and burn fairly quickly.]

    He does not have the mettle to lead. He is like a high-school lab experiment waiting to go wrong: volatile, acidic, ill-measured, flammable. He will spontaneously combust one tough day.

  9. [I expect they’ll be saying they want the government to control the portfolio, and not Barnaby]

    You fail to understand that the business community still contacts shadow ministers to lobby on the Opposition position on government policy as well as the fact that if they were to win the election Senator Joyce would be expected to take the Finance portfolio in the Government.

  10. [You fail to understand that the business community still contacts shadow ministers to lobby on the Opposition position on government policy]
    Well, most businesses want an ETS. So the Liberals are doing a spectacularly good job of opposing what their business base wants.

  12. The Barnaby is clearly on a huge ego trip at the moment, seeing himself as the salvation of the nation in its time of trouble. In a way, troublesome as it must be to have him on the front bench, he is more dangerous to the Liberals as a backbencher, where he can promote himself as a verifiable, free-lance, boot-scooting, shoot-from-lip, bush radical. He was on this path in 2009, a one-man right-wing schism. Having invited Barnaby into the Liberal Mansion, Abbott will now have to show his resident jester every hospitality.

  15. Well I don’t mind being called an idiot, but when I am constantly referred to one in every new post ShowsOn makes it gets a little annoying.

  16. I can’t understand all the fuss against Barnaby Joyce. Just because he had the courage to mention that Foreign Aid is an area the Government could cut. Foreign Aid is a waste of money when compared to the plight of improverished Australians. The money often ends up in the pockets of corrupt officials in third world countries this money would be better spent in Australia helping our own people.

  17. HTT, you frequently use the same terms. Think of it as blowback. Try to be more charming and less repellent. Take your drugs. Drink less.

  22. [HTT, you frequently use the same terms. Think of it as blowback. Try to be more charming and less repellent. Take your drugs. Drink less.]

    NO.

    I am very polite with all my postings.

  26. [Charity begins at home guys not in some god forsaking third world country that probably idolises allah instead of god.]

    Can’t wait for this policy announcement from Senator Joyce: Foreign aid to be restricted to god-worshipping countries (the real god that is).

  27. My motto is you can’t help people who can’t help themselves.

    Thats why foreign aid fails. You are basically paying people to repeat the same mistakes and poverty cycle they have been in for decades. If they haven’t learnt to fend for themselves yet, they never will. No amount of cash will be able to fix that.

  28. It’s good to have a The Nationals spruiker here though. Now we only need a Family First spruiker to arrive and we’ll have the full three ring circus.

  29. [Charity begins at home guys not in some god forsaking third world country that probably idolises allah instead of god.]
    1) How many Australians a year die of starvation?

    2) If you weren’t an idiot, you’d realise that “God” “Allah” and “Jehovah” are the SAME entity.

  30. [My motto is you can’t help people who can’t help themselves.]
    The Idiot’s motto is you can’t help people who can’t be helped by The Idiot.

  31. BTW I have found a nice way to put a post into moderation.
    You might want to do this so that you send a post to William’s eyes only and can’t be bothered with email (sooo 20th century).

    Now obviously there are some not-nice ways to do this, however if you have a polite query it does tend to set the wrong tone.

    To get a post into automatic moderation just type: &

    This the the html ascii escape sequece for: ‘&’ so it is fairly inoffensive…

  32. [My motto is you can’t help people who can’t help themselves.]

    So you support people who have the gumption to get in a boat and come here
    😉

    There is hope!

  33. [To get a post into automatic moderation just type: &

    This the the html ascii escape sequece for: ‘&’ so it is fairly inoffensive…]
    Why didn’t this post go into moderation?

  38. [So you support people who have the gumption to get in a boat and come here]

    Actually WRONG, in the spirit of my saying they would stay home and fix their own shithole they are fleeing from, rather than take the easy route and try and get into a country like Australia.

  40. [Actually WRONG, in the spirit of my saying they would stay home and fix their own shithole they are fleeing from]
    The Idiot refuses to flee from the shit hole that The Idiot lives in.

  42. [Lord Monckton wows Melbourne audience
    About 1,000 supporters gave Lord Christopher Monckton a standing ovation at his public lecture in Melbourne last night. Earlier, 100 attended a luncheon at the Institute for Private Enterprise in South Yarra.]

    Sir Lie-a-lot is the Pauline Hanson of cliamte change. A popular figure who helps make a bunch of paranoid idiots feel they aren’t crazy. George W Bush would have gotten a more critical audience on Fox news.

  43. PN 2471

    [Charity begins at home guys not in some god forsaking third world country that probably idolises allah instead of god.]

    So you’d have no trouble letting Sudanese christains in then? 🙂 And of course, allah and the christain god are recognised by both religeons as the same figure. They just disagree on the status of a prophet (Mohammed) vs a son of god (Jesus) 😀

  44. Abbott wants an election now. He’s realised that his CC ‘policy’ will only stand up for a short time, not a long time:
    “Abbott challenges Rudd to early election”
    [“How the rising price of electricity might somehow stop sea levels from rising, and how everyone will be better off by paying more for everything.”

    Mr Abbott challenged Mr Rudd to call an early election.

    “I say bring it on.

    “Opposition’s live for elections because elections are the only way we can become government.”]
    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/abbott-challenges-rudd-to-early-election-20100205-nh19.html

  45. [Sir Lie-a-lot is the Pauline Hanson of cliamte change]
    Pauline Hanson is probably the Pauline Hanson of climate change. I doubt she believes in it. The interesting thing is that Sarah Palin pretended to believe in climate change during the last U.S. election, but now she is moving away from that view.

  47. Weren’t the Liberals going on and on about Kevin Rudd wanting to rush to an early election just a couple of months ago? Now they do and that’s fine? I suppose I shouldn’t expect logic or consistancy from politicians.

  48. Abbott’s just trying to get a positive newsgrab tonight by ‘challenging Rudd”.
    Anything to try and divert attention from Barnaby and his statement about not having sex with Tone 😉

  49. [What about the ones here in Oz who worship the flying spaghetti monster?]

    Good point Don. If the ABS won’t admit that atheism is a religeon (or at least a coherent belief system) and we can’t say “Jedi”, then belief in the flying spaghetti monster seems the most credible option left. Her followers have never committed a single religeous war in all of recorded history. All hail the flying spaghetti monster.

    [The interesting thing is that Sarah Palin pretended to believe in climate change during the last U.S. election, but now she is moving away from that view.]

    She’s is learning to know her constituency better… tell the loons they are right and they’ll vote for you.

  50. [“Opposition’s live for elections because elections are the only way we can become government.”]
    Abbott has committed an apostrophe howler as well. 😆

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