Newspoll: 52-48

The latest Newspoll shows Labor’s lead at 52-48, equal lowest since the election of the Rudd government. It is the first time the government has trailed on the primary vote, by 40 per cent (steady on the previous poll) to 41 per cent (up three points) – the previous 52-48 result from October 30-November 1 having had the parties on 41 per cent each. The Greens are steady on 12 per cent, with “others” down from 10 per cent to 7 per cent. Kevin Rudd has suffered no damage on preferred prime minister, leading 58 per cent to 26 per cent (both up one). More to follow.

Other news:

• Essential Research has Labor’s two-party lead at 56-44 for the third week running. It also finds that while the majority of Labor and Coalition voters are firm if not fruity, 24 per cent of Greens voters (double the rate for the majors) “might consider another party and leader closer to an election”. Seventy per cent say politicians “should not be giving advice on moral issues”. Fifty-seven per cent support the Shopping Centre Council’s call for a ban on politicians campaigning in shopping centres. Respondents want a republic but not a new flag, nor (what the hell is wrong with people?) a new national anthem.

• Political party financial disclosure returns, such as they are, have been published. Labor and the Coalition parties were evenly matched on receipts, Labor receiving $42.9 million for 2008-09 against $38.4 million for the Liberals and $5.2 million for the Nationals – sharply down on last year due to the absence in the period of so much as a by-election. The Australian counts $4.65 million in donations to Labor from unions (the opposition makes it $11 million), the Coalition parties received $800,000 from Clive Palmer, and the Westfield Corporation evenly divided $230,000 between the two. Stephen Mayne in Crikey points to the disparity between the Queensland and WA branches of the ALP in a period when both had state elections: $14.3 million in receipts and $15.8 million in expenses for the victorious party in Queensland, against $4 million and $4.5 million for the defeated party in WA. Labor is $7 million in debt, the Liberals $4.2 million.

• Tim Dick of the Sydney Morning Herald reviews the recall election issue. All of the American examples cited refer to individual offices – a very different matter from dissolving an assembly, which the Coalition proposes to look at once in government. However, the article also notes the Canadian province of British Columbia has allowed members to recall their local MPs since 1995. Only one attempt managed to procure the required 40 per cent of voters’ signatures, and the MP in question obviated the need for a recall election (as distinct from a by-election) by resigning. In the current environment in New South Wales, that would obviously inspire efforts to knock off enough Labor MPs to cost the government its majority.

• Toni Bell of the Manning River Times reports John Turner, Nationals member for the NSW state seat of Myall Lakes, has announced his 23-year parliamentary career will end at next year’s election. Turner lost the party’s deputy leadership in 2003 and was dumped as Shadow Mineral Resources and Lands Minister in December 2008. The electorate, which covers the north coast north of Newcastle and south of Port Macquarie, will presumably become of interest to the Liberals.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,522 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48”

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  2. And for something completely different, who heard Barnaby Joyce being interviewed this morning on AM by Fran Kelly. The Fran, very tenderly, asked the Shadow Finance bloke if the Abbott had spoken to him about his recent performance. He said he wouldn’t comment about that, but then went on to say he talked to Tone all the time, that they had a very constructive relationship, a very open relationship…and then he had a minor neurological power-down…and said…”it sounds like…(mumble)…it’s not a sexual relationship.”

    He is very very funny, the Barnaby. I’m warming to him. He is a perfect gift: the self-satirizing politician. Talk about laugh.

  3. briefly,

    If he wants to be a clown, he should join another circus.

    I would actually like the Finance Minister to know what he’s talking about.

  4. #2392 – Scorpio
    [ The inane, imbecility on this site has plunged to new depths since you started commenting on PB, Peter!]

    To be frank i don’t believe you. That is your perception based on my perception that you don’t like me because I am not a sychophant to you.

    However, William owns the blog.

    The power is in his hands.

  6. The ALP should go easy on Barnaby. If he is still there in the last three weeks of the election campaign his utterances will be a constant problem for the Opposition leadership.

  7. Bird@2332:

    [PS: What’s so old and outmoded about HTML? Freakin’ Myspace generation…]

    I take it you still use the command line DOS prompt?

    👿

  8. GG, I agree completely. Public money and comedy should not be on the same billing. However, Joyce is clearly a self-detonating joke and I do love a laugh. Somehow, I don’t think he is ever going to be troubled by national finances.

  11. Hasn’t Barnaby heard of “Too much information”?

    I tuned into the Midday Report and the first thing I see is Barnaby telling the world that he doesn’t have sex with Abbott!

  13. [Barnaby telling the world that he doesn’t have sex with Abbott!]

    Vera, i never had SEX with either of them!!!!!! :kiss:

  14. [4. A working journalist likewise will not agree to conditions attempted to be imposed by a politician as a condition for the interview.
    5. The politician agrees to the interview without conditions because of the need to get publicity. The politician has no bargaining power as the Queen does.
    6. A working journalist will to the best of his/her ability conduct the interview to get answers to questions. Politicians will dissemble. Thus the interviewer will need to step in at times, which may appear rude to urgers on the sideline who have a paetisan interest in the interviewee.]
    4. No-one said they should.
    5. No-one said they shouldn’t.
    6. Rudeness is being disrespectful no matter what side you’re on.

  15. can someone check my maths on this, but I’m getting this from my research

    1n 2001 we produced 528million tonnes of carbon dioxide

    1 hectare of eucalypts 9depending on their growth rate watering- and become efficient ages 5- 20 years) removes 20tones of CO2 per year

    In order to reduce CO2 by 5% we have to reduce it by 26.4 million tonnes

    That equates to 1.32million hectares that need to be planted

    1 hectare= 0.01 sq km

    So we need 13,200 sq kms to be planted

    My calculator can’t go past 10 digits. What does it cost bury 1 km of wire again

  16. So Essential Research and Morgan have Labor at about 56% TPP and Newspoll 52%. Hmm. That puts a question mark over Newspoll surely.

  17. [2404
    Peter Young

    #2392 – Scorpio

    The inane, imbecility on this site has plunged to new depths since you started commenting on PB, Peter!

    To be frank i don’t believe you. That is your perception based on my perception that you don’t like me because I am not a sychophant to you.

    However, William owns the blog.

    The power is in his hands.]

    You do a passing impersonation of a fully inflatable, ready-to-pop, wild-eyed, Liberal character assassin, PY. I doubt that William will save us from your malice, but that hardly matters.

  19. imacca@2397:

    [Some divers off Perth got busted by a great white yesterday……….. ]

    Thanks very much for that – my son is a very keen spearfisher and windsurfer in the Perth area, I sent him a copy.

    Won’t stop him but.

  22. [2416
    Gary Bruce

    So Essential Research and Morgan have Labor at about 56% TPP and Newspoll 52%. Hmm. That puts a question mark over Newspoll surely.]

    MOE, GB, MOE. They could all be out by a point or two. The trend is not much changed by these results: the Libs are going to get a belting. They do not have the wherewithal to challenge Labor: on policy, people and preparedness, they are a long long way behind, and the public know it.

  23. don,

    I met a spearfisher near Port Stephens who (back in the ’90s) used to like going out on charter boats ➡ he would then have himself towed slowly along underwater behind the boat in the middle of the burley stream! Just “to see what shows up”…

    Don’t know what happen to him. He may still be alive.

  25. vera,

    Yeah, it was a damning piece of evidence- anything that pops into his head really does shoot straight out of his mouth.

    There is no filter there at all.

  26. To be fair, the poll does show a 2% swap in votes from Labor to the Libs.

    BUT also to be fair, it was taken before this parliamentary week.

    I think that things will change a bit now the Libs have had a week of being silly.

  28. You can rule a line under all the polling over the summer period, with this last Morgan Poll. You can consider it the phoney war period.

    All polling starting from this week, and over the next month, will give us a clearer picture of the state of play.

    Essential’s Monday PM results will be the first, unless Nielsen has one published on Monday AM.

  29. Having been away for a month and come back, my observation is that the tone of this blog is lower than it was last year. There is more stupid sloganising and less intelligent conversation. The blame for this rests almost entirely with bob1234 and his endless stream of puerile abuse. Also we have lost Glen and GP as our resident Liberals and gained Truthy, who is just a loudmouthed fool. The endless feuding between GG and Diogenes doesn’t help either.

  31. [Having been away for a month and come back, my observation is that the tone of this blog is lower than it was last year.]
    So any decent gossip? What do your fellow hacks make of the pretend Liberal climate policy?

    Any chance of snippets of Barnaby’s press club appearance ending up in Labor adverts?
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SNLkCRgHrbA

  32. [The blame for this rests almost entirely with bob1234 and his endless stream of puerile abuse. Also we have lost Glen and GP ]
    Glen doesn’t bother posting much because even he knows that Abbott isn’t worth defending, and is on record saying he won’t vote Liberal in the House if Abbott is leader on election day.

    I thought G.P. was banned?

  33. [i never had SEX with either of them!!!!!!]
    Finns
    You are one classy dolphin :kiss: , even my barnyard pals would reject that pair.

  34. [So any decent gossip? What do your fellow hacks make of the pretend Liberal climate policy? Any chance of snippets of Barnaby’s press club appearance ending up in Labor adverts?]

    * Some Labor people certainly think Abbott is a serious threat. I don’t, I think he’ll crash and burn fairly quickly.
    * Their climate policy is a fake, but it’s a clever fake and will fool some people. This issue isn’t as clear-cut a positive for Labor as it was in 2007, because it’s proved much harder to square the science and the politics than anyone expected. It may cost us some votes in regional areas.
    * Barnaby is the gift that goes on giving. I expect he’ll be shifted away from Finance well before the election. But the Libs just don’t have enough talent to hold down all the senior portfolios.

  35. I agree Psephos. Let’s hope that as the electoral temperature rises, there will be more diversity, more discussion and less evil rubbish. Sometimes I am inclined to think the sheer nastiness injected into the exchanges here – mostly by PY and HTT – is designed to drive away readers and posters. William could enlighten us abut the traffic here. Maybe he would like to publish a few stats now and then.

  36. i would ask you all to read the crickey story re joyce and foreign investment
    i think we owe to australia to mention this angle to every one we know.
    I had not thought of it in this way. we all should lobby the abc to have this type of story on the news?????

  39. its our duty to talk about these things off this site not just to ourselves i do
    even at supper market check outs to people i dont even know i take every opportunity to point out things that a wrong

  41. The view from the right:

    [Is the Women’s Weekly campaigning for Labor?
    People have been intrigued by the Tony Abbott interview in the Australian Women’s Weekly. The article is suspiciously political for a supposed neutral magazine, suggests satirist Ben-Peter Terpstra.]

    http://australianconservative.com/2010/02/is-the-womens-weekly-campaigning-for-labor/

    The conservative material is very interesting. They are the last of the ideologues – well, not the last: the militant islamists also qualify, in my book. They are clearly on a mission to change the nature of society – in its political, social, cultural and economic dimensions – and trying to build ‘a movement’.

  43. [But the Libs just don’t have enough talent to hold down all the senior portfolios.]

    …and they have Malcom Turnbull sitting on the backbench

  47. [Lord Monckton wows Melbourne audience
    About 1,000 supporters gave Lord Christopher Monckton a standing ovation at his public lecture in Melbourne last night. Earlier, 100 attended a luncheon at the Institute for Private Enterprise in South Yarra.]

    The ideological contest for leadership of the right is in full swing. Who said history was over?

  48. my say

    not being responded to is not something to be worried about.

    Look at how many responses people like PY, truthy and bob get – and it’s not because we respect their points of view.

    People tend to get jumped on if others think they’re wrong, so if you’re not getting responses it probably means most posters are happy with what you’ve said.

  49. [* Barnaby is the gift that goes on giving. I expect he’ll be shifted away from Finance well before the election. But the Libs just don’t have enough talent to hold down all the senior portfolios.]
    I don’t think Barnaby would accept a different portfolio.

  50. [The Obama Recession smashes the markets:]
    The Idiot’s idiocy smashes the market for idiocy.
    [Luckily I moved most of my share holdings + Super into cash over a week ago.]
    Luckily The Idiot moved most of his idiocy + idioticness into being a bigger idiot a week ago.

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