Something for the weekend

Parliament resumes on Monday, bringing with it an end to the silly season. We have had no Morgan this week, but there should be a Newspoll on Tuesday. Monday’s Essential Research poll had Labor’s two-party lead steady on 56-44; rated the relative importance of various issues; found a high level of support for Tony Abbott’s green jobs policy; and showed most respondents agreeing with the opposition after the emissions trading scheme issue was explained to them in a particular way. Other than that:

• Antony Green and Possum offer common sense reflections on the state of the opinion polls at the moment. Possum in particular identifies the peculiarity of the 2007 federal result, which alone out of seven observations failed to deliver on a landslide which the polls had shown at long range. The question now facing us is whether the extraordinary factors of 2007 equally apply in 2010 – whatever they might have been.

• A day after Bob McMullan announced he would retire from his seat of Fraser at the next election, Annette Ellis announced she too would be vacating the other safe Labor ACT seat, Canberra. Ousted ACT party secretary Bill Redpath claims national secretary Karl Bitar’s refusal to allow an earlier preselection indicates they were pushed as much as jumped. Christian Kerr of The Australian reports Ellis in particular agreed to go after Left and Right failed to finesse a deal in which the former would take Fraser at the election, and the latter would take Canberra when it became available. Michael Cooney, former adviser to Mark Latham and Kim Beazley and current chief-of staff to ACT Education Minister Andrew Barr, was reportedly all but certain to take Canberra, while Fraser was likely to go to the party’s assistant national secretary Nick Martin. However, a new candidate for Canberra has emerged in Gai Brodtmann, runner of communications firm Brodtmann & Uhlmann Communications and wife of ABC report Chris Uhlmann.

• Peter Lindsay has announced he will vacate his knife-edge marginal Townsville-based seat of Herbert, and readily admits the timing of the announcement was chosen for “strategic reasons”. The Townsville Bulletin reports candidates for Liberal preselection are “thin on the ground”, no doubt reflecting a lack of confidence in Coalition ranks. Townsville deputy mayor David Crisafulli and V8 Supercars event manager Kim Faithful were rated as obvious successors, but both have declined to enter the ring. The one candidate known to have confirmed interest is Colin Dwyer, an economist and unsuccessful candidate for Mundingburra at last year’s state election. The Bulletin also reviews the achievements of Lindsay’s final term: a fact-finding mission encompassing 13 different countries, resulting in a report that plagiarised Wikipedia and featured a Photoshopped image purporting to show Lindsay at a Beirut war cemetery. Labor’s preselection process has turned up 2007 candidate George Colbran, former mayor and long-established local identity Tony Mooney, and Townsville councillor Jenny Hill.

• Soraiya Gharahkhani of the Campbelltown Macarthur Advertiser reports Paul Nunnari, wheelchair athlete and adviser to state Campbelltown MP Graham West will contest preselection for Macarthur, going up against presumed favourite Nick Bleasdale, the narrowly unsuccessful candidate from 2007.

• Michelle Carnovale of the Oakleigh Monash Leader reports Monash councillor Joy Banerji is Labor’s unlikely prospect in Kevin Andrews’ seat of Menzies.

• Those of you who have about 30 seconds to spare are encouraged to fill out Crikey’s website reader survey.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,289 comments on “Something for the weekend”

Comments Page 24 of 26
1 … 23 24 25 26

  1. ru

    I can’t understand the Greens reasoning on that one. It looks very dodgy.

    [How many business owners will employ someone over 50, heck over 40 even?]

    The Report talks about that and suggests “incentives” be considered to encourage employing over 50s.

    That line from Psephos really seems to have hammered home the grim reality of us GenXers coughing up for his generations retirement. It’s a very ugly picture he painted. 🙁

  2. Just regarding the imminent Newspoll, not sure what quite to make of this at http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/kevin-rudd-warns-mps-on-eve-of-parliament-return-that-labor-could-lose-election/story-e6frgczf-1225825594243

    “Mr Rudd’s warning today follows the first Newspoll for 2010 finding a fortnight ago that while Labor retained an election-winning lead, Mr Abbott had reclaimed support among the Liberal Party base since his election and the proportion of voters satisfied with how Mr Rudd was doing his job had fallen six points to 52 per cent. The Australian Online will publish the first details of the latest Newspoll tonight at 10.15pm. Full details and analysis will appear in The Australian tomorrow .”

    Does The Oz usually do a teaser before publication? Are they excited about what they’ve got up their sleeve?

  3. [I can’t understand the Greens reasoning on that one. It looks very dodgy.]

    They liked the carrot, hated the stick. Then used it as an excuse to do nothing.

    [The Report talks about that and suggests “incentives” be considered to encourage employing over 50s.]

    Not going to happen, unfortunately. Corporate culture is to get em young and train them in “our ways”. People who have worked physical jobs usually have some kind of arthrides by 50.

    Would things be better if Howard had increased the Super Levy to 15% and not given us tax cuts?

  4. Socrates,

    I’m not sure that anyone disputes the impact of changing demographics in health. Indeed, the Treasurer said in his speech to the National Press Club today:

    [To some extent, this higher population growth would help us manage the challenges of an ageing population.

    But there’s no doubt rising population will place pressures on us as well – on our roads, schools and hospitals, on our environment, and on our communities.

    We can manage these pressures if we start planning for them now.]

    The report also adverts to the point that you’re making about retirement age in it’s use of the term ‘traditional’ working life. The report sets out some ways in which the government will attempt to encourage Australians to work beyond this ‘traditional’ period. However it makes clear that governments should not seek to impose a longer working life on their citizens, contrary to the self-contradictory criticisms made by the Opposition.

  5. rabitoh @ # 1152
    [Does The Oz usually do a teaser before publication? Are they excited about what they’ve got up their sleeve?]
    Sometimes they fluff up a poll, sometimes they refuse to release the 2PP altogether…

  6. Diogs,

    The Greens press release proves they love to waffle. Today’s intergenerational report provides incontravertible evidence that something needs to be done on many fronts including Health. The Greens “we believe” rhetoric is just a paper thin disguise for not having a clue.

    But, we already knew that from the posts of the usual suspects here on PB.

    Interesting to see their vote as the softest, which only confirms they’re the real “jelly fish” Party of Australian politics. Maybe if Viagara was on the NHS they’d harden the Heck up.

  7. [Does The Oz usually do a teaser before publication? Are they excited about what they’ve got up their sleeve?]

    Didn’t Glen say he was newspolled last wednesday or so? Maybe they have a super-dooper edition? 😉

  8. [Not going to happen, unfortunately. Corporate culture is to get em young and train them in “our ways”.]

    A lot of jobs are in the public sector (isn’t it about 1/4?) so the Govt could take the lead in employing over 50s and make a difference.

    It you didn’t include over 50s on payroll tax of something like that, the private sector might take more.

  9. [It you didn’t include over 50s on payroll tax of something like that, the private sector might take more.]

    I think this is a matter for State and Territory governments (do the Territories levy payroll tax?).

  10. [Didn’t Glen say he was newspolled last wednesday or so? Maybe they have a super-dooper edition? 😉 ]

    Glen was probably one of those who said they’d be voting Green but might change if there was a leadership change (in the Libs). 😉

  11. [It you didn’t include over 50s on payroll tax of something like that, the private sector might take more.]

    Payroll Tax is a State Tax, how do the Federal Govt convince the States to do that?

  12. ruawake @ 1161

    [Payroll Tax is a State Tax, how do the Federal Govt convince the States to do that? ]

    Waving a wad of cash under the Premiers’ noses has almost always worked in the past. 😉

  13. [Waving a wad of cash under the Premiers’ noses has almost always worked in the past. ]

    Why bother, income tax is the Federal Govt. carrot. But business usually hires the “best” person for the job, not the cheapest.

    The only “businesses” interested in incentives to hire “oldies” will be at the shonky end of the spectrum. 🙁

  14. @1152, Rudd does see them before they go public, as does the opposition. My guess from what that story is suggesting is a slight drop in Labor’s support on the TPP, something like 54-46.

  16. Unlawful age discrimination in employment is rife. Until that is addressed any “incentives” offered to employers to retain a relatively low number of mature workers (defined as 45+) is a drop in the ocean.
    [Commissioner Broderick said one of the biggest problems with age discrimination was its entrenched and implied social acceptance, and thus, invisibility.

    “We need to make this invisible problem visible,” Commissioner Broderick said. “We need to invest in research into this problem, we need to commit to communicating the existence and extent of this problem to the wider community and we need to look at legislative and policy reforms to address it.”]

    http://www.hreoc.gov.au/about/media/media_releases/2009/69_09.html

    Also relevant…National Seniors Productive Ageing Centre’s report: ‘Experience Works: The Mature Age Employment Challenge’
    http://www.nationalseniors.com.au/ebiz/content/wsc.aspx?ID=84
    This report states that the labour force participation rate for people aged between 55 and 64 in Australia is lower than in Scandinavia, the UK the US, Canada, Japan, Switzerland, Iceland and NZ.

  19. [Unlawful age discrimination in employment is rife…]

    It is also almost impossible to prove. Imagine being on an interview panel – the penny finally drops “this guy or gal is great, they could even do my job – er ooops no – what about the young un”.

    It happens every day. 🙁

  20. As to incentives for employees to remain in the workforce….Who has this choice to accept such incentives? Casual workers? Those in minimum wage jobs? Workers in physically demanding and physically damaging jobs?….Of course not.

  23. [this guy or gal is great, they could even do my job – er ooops no – what about the young un”]

    Happened where I worked, new bloke edged out the GM.

    Made sure it didn’t happen to him by vetting all future applicants.

  27. ru

    The Feds could pay the employers Workcover contributions for workers over 50.

    I agree that it’s useless trying to prove age discrimination and it’s obviously a big problem.

  28. I’m more interested in seeing what the Labor primary vote does – whether or not it moves from it’s current record-low for Rudd on 40 percent.

    Let’s hope the Greens can keep up their recent 12%, 11%, 12%, 11% trend… certainly a shift upward since November 🙂

  30. William, do you think that although they attempt to remove bias through various means, that Essential Research is inherantly biased, because they are in effect taking a sample from another sample? Asking 1,000 from a random online database of 100,000 surely creates an issue?

  31. I reckon Rudd’s satisfaction rating is taking a dive from the left more than the right. We all know what the left is like.

  32. Gary I think you have misinterpreted, again.

    [Mr Rudd’s warning today follows the first Newspoll for 2010 finding a fortnight ago that while Labor retained an election-winning lead, Mr Abbott had reclaimed support among the Liberal Party base since his election and the proportion of voters satisfied with how Mr Rudd was doing his job had fallen six points to 52 per cent.

    The Australian Online will publish the first details of the latest Newspoll tonight at 10.15pm. Full details and analysis will appear in The Australian tomorrow .]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/politics/kevin-rudd-warns-mps-on-eve-of-parliament-return-that-labor-could-lose-election/story-e6frgczf-1225825594243

    Re-read it. Nothing has been published about his satisfaction by Newspoll since 2 weeks ago.

  33. [I reckon Rudd’s satisfaction rating is taking a dive from the left more than the right. We all know what the left is like.]

    Labor is SUPPOSED to be the left compared to the Liberals on the right.

    Honestly, could you sell your soul any more sleazily?

  34. Didn’t the Newspoll come in last time better 2PP for the tories although their primary vote did not change? I think Labor lost a little to the Greens from memory

    I think it will be higher because that vote to the greens will come back. Besides, isn’t 56% if an election was held tomorrow nearly the greatest 2PP of all time?

    I’ll get shouted down but if it’s a bad number tonight for the tories, Kevvie has GOT to tempted with a quickfire DD. Someone tell me why he wouldn’t? Yeah sure, only a two year term, but the 2012 election would be easy to win if you are against hardly anyone left in opposition.

    Also, doesn’t polling usually go back to the government slightly just before the election…..remember the narrowing…..or does it become more even no matter who is in front?

  36. Pegasus

    That’s a great link. These are the recommendations in brief for keeping more mature workers in jobs.

    1. Existing anti-discrimination legislation should be strengthened

    2. An immediate priority for government must be the creation of incentives to encourage mature age workers to increase and update their skills

    3. Better training, education and reskilling to keep skills current

    4. Better age management to continue productivity for longer

  39. bob went:

    [William, do you think that although they attempt to remove bias through various means, that Essential Research is inherantly biased, because they are in effect taking a sample from another sample? Asking 1,000 from a random online database of 100,000 surely creates an issue?]

    Mathematically, as long as the panel (the 100,000) are demographically representative of the broader population, it makes no difference at all.

  40. Who’s been a naughty marsupial ? 🙂

    [Pollytics

    @samanthamaiden You guys should make a spelling mistake – say 50/50 on TPP just for the fun 😛 2 minutes ago from TweetDeck in reply to samanthamaiden]

  41. For interest, media release from Beyond Zero Emissions organization.
    [“The arguments for needing coal, gas or nuclear power to provide our electricity needs in a modern economy are completely false. Solar thermal power with storage is proven technology, which will reliably provide the backbone of modern 100 per cent renewable electricity grids.” ….

    … “Australia is the country with one of the best solar resources in the world. We have some of the best researchers in this area too.Despite this, the Rudd Government remains in thrall to the coal lobby, investing in dead-end fantasies like carbon capture and storage (clean coal), while other countries develop their solar thermal expertise and manufacturing. The Spanish Government is supporting solar thermal power with a serious feed-in tariff for large-scale solar installations, and we should be doing the same here.”

    “Solar thermal power with storage will soon be cheaper than new coal-fired power stations according to US Department of Energy projections. The Australian Government should be positioning Australia at the forefront of the renewable energy revolution by planning for a transition to 100% renewable energy. Unfortunately the Federal Solar Flagships Program is shaping up to be a failure, with guidelines skewed to favour 1980s style daytime-only solar plants rather than the newer standard of “baseload” solar thermal storage plants that are being built now in Europe and the USA”. Wright concluded.]
    http://beyondzeroemissions.org/media/releases/solar-power-all-through-night-100202

  42. This build up for the Libs reminds me of Richmond in last year’s AFL. All the talk was about a new boom recruit Ben Cousins, the players were fitter than ever and new sense of unity and purpose was all the go, according to insiders. The supporters were signing up in droves as the talk was all how this year was “going to be different”.

    Unfortunately, Carlton thumped them by 80+ points in the first round and that, in retrospect could be seen as the highlight of the year. Cos, they never recovered. Injuries, internal strife and the coach was sacked within weeks. Another year down the gurgler.

    Opening bounce is QT tomorrow.

  43. [1. Existing anti-discrimination legislation should be strengthened ]

    Why? It is impossible to prove unless some dill says we nuked the old fart.

    [2. An immediate priority for government must be the creation of incentives to encourage mature age workers to increase and update their skills ]

    Many mature age workers already have the skills, learnt through decades of doing stuff.

    [3. Better training, education and reskilling to keep skills current]

    Same as 2, who says people do not keep their skills current?

    [4. Better age management to continue productivity for longer]

    “age management” who wrote that crud. 😛 People “age” how do you manage it?

  44. [In the opening week of the inquest, statements suggested that trouble started on the SIEV 36 because its passengers mistakenly thought they would be turned back to Indonesian waters.]

    Where did they get that idea from.

    What sort of person/ persons would even think of such an idea.

    Why aren’t the papers onto this, some misguided scare campaign that Australia would turn back boats has resulted in deaths.

    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/sailor-ignored-orders-to-save-afghans-20100201-n8ii.html

  45. Wonder if any trolls have or will imply that Rudd is responsible for population growth?

    I think Rudd should completely fix the problem in the May budget. This will be a major test for Rudd and will define his PMship if he can’t fix the problem of population growth in the next budget then questions will be asked (mostly by trolls and the Libs).

    This will be worth watching.

    Maybe a penis tax? A register and licensing.

  47. A sprightly young woman of 71, who I know, spends a few hours a week making meals for “meals on wheels” she applied for a job at the local McDonalds. She would be a great burger flipper – would love to do it.

    But, oh dear – she would have to be paid senior rates. 🙁

  48. Ruawake @ 1193

    Agree with you on points 1 to 3 🙂 However, many employees are not in the fortunate position where they can avail themselves of any opportunities to retrain or reskill, assuming such opportunities are even provided to them.

  49. In my browsing through very old news stories on-line at NLA there was one story that a person got off a charge because they believe a cat sleeping on the sleeping persons face was the cause of death. Me thinks somebody got off murder that day.

  50. Oops, qualify my post @1198 re point 1 – strengthening of age discrimination legislation. I do support this but agree that proving it is very difficult indeed.

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 24 of 26
1 … 23 24 25 26