Something for the weekend

Parliament resumes on Monday, bringing with it an end to the silly season. We have had no Morgan this week, but there should be a Newspoll on Tuesday. Monday’s Essential Research poll had Labor’s two-party lead steady on 56-44; rated the relative importance of various issues; found a high level of support for Tony Abbott’s green jobs policy; and showed most respondents agreeing with the opposition after the emissions trading scheme issue was explained to them in a particular way. Other than that:

• Antony Green and Possum offer common sense reflections on the state of the opinion polls at the moment. Possum in particular identifies the peculiarity of the 2007 federal result, which alone out of seven observations failed to deliver on a landslide which the polls had shown at long range. The question now facing us is whether the extraordinary factors of 2007 equally apply in 2010 – whatever they might have been.

• A day after Bob McMullan announced he would retire from his seat of Fraser at the next election, Annette Ellis announced she too would be vacating the other safe Labor ACT seat, Canberra. Ousted ACT party secretary Bill Redpath claims national secretary Karl Bitar’s refusal to allow an earlier preselection indicates they were pushed as much as jumped. Christian Kerr of The Australian reports Ellis in particular agreed to go after Left and Right failed to finesse a deal in which the former would take Fraser at the election, and the latter would take Canberra when it became available. Michael Cooney, former adviser to Mark Latham and Kim Beazley and current chief-of staff to ACT Education Minister Andrew Barr, was reportedly all but certain to take Canberra, while Fraser was likely to go to the party’s assistant national secretary Nick Martin. However, a new candidate for Canberra has emerged in Gai Brodtmann, runner of communications firm Brodtmann & Uhlmann Communications and wife of ABC report Chris Uhlmann.

• Peter Lindsay has announced he will vacate his knife-edge marginal Townsville-based seat of Herbert, and readily admits the timing of the announcement was chosen for “strategic reasons”. The Townsville Bulletin reports candidates for Liberal preselection are “thin on the ground”, no doubt reflecting a lack of confidence in Coalition ranks. Townsville deputy mayor David Crisafulli and V8 Supercars event manager Kim Faithful were rated as obvious successors, but both have declined to enter the ring. The one candidate known to have confirmed interest is Colin Dwyer, an economist and unsuccessful candidate for Mundingburra at last year’s state election. The Bulletin also reviews the achievements of Lindsay’s final term: a fact-finding mission encompassing 13 different countries, resulting in a report that plagiarised Wikipedia and featured a Photoshopped image purporting to show Lindsay at a Beirut war cemetery. Labor’s preselection process has turned up 2007 candidate George Colbran, former mayor and long-established local identity Tony Mooney, and Townsville councillor Jenny Hill.

• Soraiya Gharahkhani of the Campbelltown Macarthur Advertiser reports Paul Nunnari, wheelchair athlete and adviser to state Campbelltown MP Graham West will contest preselection for Macarthur, going up against presumed favourite Nick Bleasdale, the narrowly unsuccessful candidate from 2007.

• Michelle Carnovale of the Oakleigh Monash Leader reports Monash councillor Joy Banerji is Labor’s unlikely prospect in Kevin Andrews’ seat of Menzies.

• Those of you who have about 30 seconds to spare are encouraged to fill out Crikey’s website reader survey.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,289 comments on “Something for the weekend”

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  1. ru

    [“age management” who wrote that crud. 😛 People “age” how do you manage it?]

    Effective age management has a critical role to play in supporting older workers making a phased transition to retirement. A phased approach to retirement could encourage prolonged workforce participation and a reduction in premature or early retirement. Mature age workers often have care-giving responsibilities (for ageing parents, for grandchildren), may be less able to work full- time because of their own health issues and could be likely to seek greater work-life balance. When employers fail to offer flexible working conditions, retirement then becomes the means of achieving this, rather than a desire to exit the paid workforce.

  2. [99% of the students are indigenous. Some of the residents of Boggabilla may have choice. This choice would be available in 2 ways-
    (a) Travelling a few kilometres from Boggabilla over the Queensland border to Goondiwindi, where there are Qld state schools and a catholic school.
    (b) Children being sent away to other towns to be schooled.]

    Someone in here was calling me a racist for claiming that Indigineous schools perform more poorly than other schools and that parents may pull students out of their school if it has a high indigineous population.

    It appears I have been redeemed.

  3. [Effective age management has a critical role to play in supporting older workers making a phased transition to retirement. A phased approach to retirement could encourage prolonged workforce participation and a reduction in premature or early retirement. Mature age workers often have care-giving responsibilities (for ageing parents, for grandchildren), may be less able to work full- time because of their own health issues and could be likely to seek greater work-life balance. When employers fail to offer flexible working conditions, retirement then becomes the means of achieving this, rather than a desire to exit the paid workforce.]

    I think people have been doing this for decades. The issue is that people don’t die, they linger on with chronic illness that our docs can manage but not cure. To equate this to working is crap.

  4. Pegasus @ 1191 quotes:

    [The Spanish Government is supporting solar thermal power with a serious feed-in tariff for large-scale solar installations, and we should be doing the same here.” ]

    I have invested in two Spanish solar farms, one PV, the other thermal. They provide a government guaranteed 12.6% return on investment for 20 years, which is a good deal now, but was exceptional when I invested just after the brown stuff hit the world economy fan.

    They are going to reap big benefits in the future by exporting power to those northern European countries that lack sunshine and wind. High voltage DC transmission lines would allow us to do the same. If only we used our brains. But we’ll probably do our dough on the ‘clean coal’ turkey instead.

  5. Leading Seaman Paul Heatherington, who defied orders and proceeded to rescue 10 or 12 asylum seekers from the Siev 36, deserve a commendation for his humanitarian efforts at the risk of his advancement and career in the Navy, not to say his life.

    Unfortunately he is more likely to be the subject of a torrent of invective from the rednecks.

  7. [Unfortunately he is more likely to be the subject of a torrent of invective from the rednecks.]

    What about the Crims who murdered 5, seriously burnt 12 and blew our ADF boys into the water?

    What leftwing award of honour can we give them?

  8. Also according to the news today 3 boatpeople on Siev 36 were under “armed guard” due to them being a “considerable risk”.

    Can the Rudd Government confirm or deny these same people are now walking Australia’s streets?

  9. [Opposition treasury spokesman Joe Hockey says the Government has delivered nothing in today’s intergenerational report.]

    Hey Joe – it was a report to the Govt. just like the two the hammock dweller got. How can they deliver on a report recieved just before Xmas?

  10. What about them? Name them, if you can identify them. Or leave it to the coroner to establish whatever evidence exists in that regard.

    But in the meanwhile, what the devil do they have to do with the bravery and compassion of Leading Seaman Heatherington?

  12. TTH @ #1202

    [It appears I have been redeemed.]

    I think it’s going to take a lot more than that for you to be redeemed TTH. The fact that you would even bring the issue of indigenous people up – apropos of nothing – in relation to the MySchool website debate says it all about your mindset really.

  13. When the NT Coroner hands down his findings and condemns the person who told the people on the SEIV 36 that they will be returned to indonesia (against Govt, and ADF policy).

    Will Truthy accept his findings? Of course not. 😛

  14. [Can the Rudd Government confirm or deny these same people are now walking Australia’s streets?]

    Are you a recent immigrant to Australia, by any chance?

  15. I’m not sure how you’ll go redeeming yourself, considering your support of the party that’s got an agenda to inflict your grandkids with SerfChoices.

  16. morewest

    [I have invested in two Spanish solar farms, one PV, the other thermal. They provide a government guaranteed 12.6% return on investment for 20 years, which is a good deal now, but was exceptional when I invested just after the brown stuff hit the world economy fan.]

    There has to be a catch. That sounds too good to be true.

  17. [Labor is SUPPOSED to be the left compared to the Liberals on the right.

    Honestly, could you sell your soul any more sleazily?]

    Bob, slavish idelogical adherence is generally not helpful. Neither the Left, Right or Middle have a monopoly on wisdom or the best solutions for a given problem. Labor in government realises this, and I for one welcome it. It ain’t “sleazy”, it’s called living in the real world.

  18. I move that bob and Truthy be given a blog of their own where they can spew their filth and garbage to their hearts’ content without the rest of us having to be contaminated by it.

  20. [I move that bob and Truthy be given a blog of their own where they can spew their filth and garbage to their hearts’ content without the rest of us having to be contaminated by it.]

    I second the motion, but reserve my right to speak. 🙂

  21. [I move that bob and Truthy be given a blog of their own where they can spew their filth and garbage to their hearts’ content without the rest of us having to be contaminated by it.]

    I must say I don’t think too much of this Truth Hurting fellow from the brief period I’ve observed him so far. His obsession with asylum seekers borders on the pathological and I’m sure such an obsession can’t be too good for his health.

  22. [What do all these countries have in common?

    Algeria, Argentina, Belarus, Brazil, Germany, Kazakhstan, Iraq, Libya, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Ukraine.]

    They either can’t play or cheat, at cricket? 😉

  23. ruawake @ # 1220

    [ I move that bob and Truthy be given a blog of their own where they can spew their filth and garbage to their hearts’ content without the rest of us having to be contaminated by it.

    I second the motion, but reserve my right to speak]

    Can we add PY to the list ? 🙂

  25. [I move that bob and Truthy be given a blog of their own where they can spew their filth and garbage to their hearts’ content without the rest of us having to be contaminated by it.]

    The scrolling finger turns and moves on. You can choose to ignore or engage.You have the power.

  28. People here are obsessed with excluding people! Even if half the time it is half a joke, good consequences never result.

  30. Another multi million dollar inquiry that comes up with zip.

    Obviously, there is no corruption in Australian politics.

  31. I am sure that when politics resumes tomorrow, the bleatings of single issue fanatings will be subsumed in the general debate.

  32. [People here are obsessed with excluding people! Even if half the time it is half a joke, good consequences never result.]

    This is true – Truth Hurting seems desperate to exclude asylum seekers.

  34. Will Tone live up to this?

    [The opposition has criticised the government’s ETS for being a new tax. But on Monday, Mr Abbott said his alternative policy would also come with a price.

    “Look, there will be a cost to the budget, there’s no doubt about that,” he told reporters.

    “We will tell the Australian people tomorrow precisely how much we think it will cost to have an effective climate change policy.” ]

    Or the Sloppy One?

    [Opposition treasury spokesman Joe Hockey said the coalition would lay out how its policies would be funded before the election. ]

    Tomorrow will be fun. 🙂

  35. I haven’t read over today’s posts, so apologies if this is already raisned.

    The Australian is now running a headline over one of the photos showing Newspoll preview at 10:15 tonight.

    This post of mine is not so much a head’s up to bloggers on the Newspoll, but I haven’t seen The Australian try to hype up a Newspoll as blandly as this – I wonder if it reflects a shift in policy – for example, no more previews on lateline only? or are the number of hits on The Australian dropping – lower advertising revenue etc

  36. Diogenes @ # 1056

    The Greens-Garnaut plan of a tax of $20 per CO2 ton and it doesn’t have a target.

    I can only conclude that the reason it does not have a target is because it will not achieve any change in out GH emissions.

    You contend that is doing nothing to reduce CO2 emissions and that they have a target of 0% with a 0% -0% range.

    At last you have got the picture. What you have to do is show me in the Greens Policy Documents that this is wrong and that I misunderstood what it say (but really what it does not say) and that in fact the burden that this policy will place on every business and individual in the country will achieve something besides bankruptcy and unemployment.

    I contend that you are a moron.

    Again you resort to type and offer abuse instead of argument and facts. You continual attempts at this form of communication does not reflect well on you or your argument. It shows you to be immature and bereft of any idea of what you are trying to talk about.

    So in summery you and the Greens prepose to impose additional costs of $21.237 Bil (gross) or $6.8 Bil (net) over two years on Australia business and individuals for no discernable gain.

    This is the sort of argument I would expect from primary school kids trying to raise money. For a political party to put forward such rubbish condemns them and their supporters to be considered irresponsible, reckless and immature.

    This is the best argument I have seen for ignoring the Greens.

  38. [This is the best argument I have seen for ignoring the Greens]

    Nah, Seiwert, Ludlam, Hanson-Young, Milne, Brown are the 5 top reasons.

  39. ruawake @ # 1238

    [ This is the best argument I have seen for ignoring the Greens

    Nah, Seiwert, Ludlam, Hanson-Young, Milne, Brown are the 5 top reasons.]

    And you forgot Carles if you’re in WA, plus the WA Green Upper House members as well 🙂

  41. Does anyone regret that Whitlam’s idea of decentralising Australia – by moving Govt Depts to Wadonga, Wagga etc failed?

  44. Has the Australian advertised the newspoll preview like this before?

    Could be a stunning result, one that will make some pollbludgers do backflips of joy, and other pollbludgers lose all faith in humanity……..

    Or does the Australian just want more hits?

    One ponders….hmmm

  45. castle #1196

    “Oscar, an aloof cat kept at a US nursing home, regularly predicted patient’s deaths by snuggling alongside them in their final hours, a scientist says”

    The cat from Catch 22?

    http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-world/oscar-the-cat-furry-angel-of-death-20100201-n8gg.html

    Yeah!

    But, I suggest, probably not unique. Every moggy who owned us, or regarded this house & its fridge as its own, or holidayed here (aka was cat-sat) – no matter how aloof or crabby – has, if any of us were ill, cuddled up on the bed beside us. We knew the sick one was on the mend when the cat went about its normal business. As Their Majesties ranged from bitzer tabbies to snooty Tonkinese, it’s either feline generic, or they’re psychic (wouldn’t surprise me!)

    It probably is something to do with the smell of skin excretions.

  46. Ratsars

    [So in summery you and the Greens prepose to impose additional costs of $21.237 Bil (gross) or $6.8 Bil (net) over two years on Australia business and individuals for no discernable gain.

    This is the sort of argument I would expect from primary school kids trying to raise money. For a political party to put forward such rubbish condemns them and their supporters to be considered irresponsible, reckless and immature.

    This is the best argument I have seen for ignoring the Greens.]

    Actually it is Garnaut’s recommendation and argument but you probably haven’t heard of him. He is Rudd’s Climate Change Advisor.

    So now Garnaut is wrong. And is of the level of a primary school kid.

    Penny Wong is wrong for saying that putting a price on carbon will reduce emissions.

    Zero is not a number, contradicting 2500 years of mathematics.

    Not having a target means you have a target of 0%.

    Getting a reduction of 2% in CO2 emissions in two years is “doing nothing”.

    And you continually whining about being criticised when your first post of the day is a pig-ignorant runt in the ground at Greens.

    Again, I will leave it to the gentle readers to make their minds up.

  48. OPT

    As a cat lover I’ll go with psychic. Though mine, no matter how many times I pleaded with it never picked the lotto numbers.

  49. It’s a widely held belief that cats “know when their time has come” and discreetly go off to die somewhere. I didn’t believe this until recently, when my mother’s elderly cat did just that.

  50. [Could be a stunning result,]

    I’d like to see 52-48.

    I thought one reason Keating got hammered in 96 was polls showed he was still a chance and voters may have been worried of another 93 result.

    Give voters an inkling that we may end up with Abbott as PM, Joyce in Finance, Hockey in Treasury, Bishop in Foreign Affairs, cue screaming Homer.

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