Essential Research: 58-42

westpollgraphic141209

The latest Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead at 58-42 for the third successive week. Also included are leadership approval ratings (Kevin Rudd predictably little changed on a fortnight ago; Tony Abbott with mediocre ratings, which is much better than Turnbull had been doing); Copenhagen (important, but unlikely to reach agreement); and “Christmas spending”. We’ve also had a 400-sample of Western Australian voters from Westpoll (see right) which has federal Labor’s lead in the state at 53-47 (compared with 53-47 against in 2007). The West Australian takes this to mean Abbott “has largely proved a turn-off for WA voters”, but it might equally be to do with Westpoll’s low-sample volatility, which has seen the score go from 55-45 in February to 50-50 in May to 53-47 in December.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,339 comments on “Essential Research: 58-42”

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  1. Diogenes,

    [Robb told colleagues that the minister, a well-known ETS sceptic came up to him, broke out into a broad smile and gave him a congratulatory handshake. The cabinet minister then strolled away, still smiling, without uttering a word.]

    I think this poster on the PD’s article hit it right in the bulls eye! 😉

    [Fearless Freddy of Toowoomba Posted at 8:00 AM Today

    “Robb told colleagues that the minister, a well-known ETS sceptic came up to him, broke out into a broad smile and gave him a congratulatory handshake. The cabinet minister then strolled away, still smiling, without uttering a word.” Well, of course he did, Glenn. He knew that Labor had just increased their chances of a landslide win in the next election.]
    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/tony-abbott-adds-the-right-stuff-in-moderation/comments-e6frg6zo-1225809978987

  2. Astrobleme #80

    Not a different planet, a very sick parallel universe with senior clergy of a number of supposedly “Christian” sects around the globe, and sporting, scouting and other community orgs for minors, who used the same excuse, modified for the warped adult offender’s preferred sex.

    That KW would even think of trying to blame underage victims is a true measure of this insult to an ancient discipline. I’ll bet he wouldn’t if they were white middle class from “good” schools. Then it would be all the perp’s fault, especially if the perp happened to be not as lily white, or well heeled, as the victims.

    To think that, if we weren’t rid of The Rodent, this !!!!!!! would have led the groups writing Australia’s history curricula.

  3. Can anyone explain how finding a climate change sceptic/denier or two in the Labor Party changes the fact that the Libs are split down the middle on this issue? We all know how Labor works, exactly the same as the cabinet, so why the problem?

  4. Boerwar and OzPol Tragic

    Madness isn’t it! I can’t imagine he is helping his cause by saying this sort of thing. Perhaps he is actually a double agent and is trying to make his side of the history wars look crazy?

  5. Adam@82:

    [Cannibalism is no longer acceptable in human society, including PNG society]

    Really?

    From the BBC:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/tribe/tribes/kombai/index.shtml

    [It seems that cannibalism is still carried out by the Kombai. It appears to be a form of tribal punishment: only men identified as witches by the communities – known as Khakhua-Kumu or men who practice witchcraft – are killed and eaten. There are tribe members living who have clearly eaten male witches.

    ‘I am scared of Khakhua-Kumu’, one Kombai man tells Bruce Parry. ‘Every time I am walking alone or hunting alone I think about them and I’m scared… If a Khakhua-Kumu kills either of my brothers, I will kill that man. If he comes from another clan I will kill him and eat him. If he comes from among us, I will give him to other people to be eaten.

    The Kombai believe that the Khakhua-Kumu eat the souls of their victims, and that they must be killed and eaten in return. As the soul is thought to lie in the brain and the stomach, retribution comes by eating those organs of the Khakhua-Kumu, to bring their terror to an end.]

  6. What tosh. Of course cannibalism is alive and well. The Coalition have been eating each other alive since the the last election.

  7. [But these plans are being actively discouraged by our government. Make no mistake, inaction on peak oil, AGW, etc will cost lives, on a small scale it already is. In this light how is the ALP government not the enemy?]

    The Rudd Government has done more in two years than Howard did in 11.5 years to counter climate change. There is even more in the pipeline and following Copenhagen there will be a total rethink of the current and proposed strategies.

    All you lot seem to be able to do, and do well, is harp along on the sidelines and criticise. Not only that, but your Senators actively sided with the deniers to prevent the Government implementing an ETS to really get the show on the road and moving forward!

  8. Apart from getting the treatment from Fran, Joyce has had a bit of a quiet day. I was waiting for the 20% flat tax announcment. Well, perhaps tomorrow.

  9. I agree with Psephos on the “whale” argument. And if Psephos and I agree on something, there isn’t much wriggle room left.

    The concern people show for animals tends to be proportionate to their size, intelligence and cuteness.

    GB

    Agree.

    THM

    Cannibalism of stem-cell human meat would never happen
    1. It would be a difficult product to market
    2. It wouldn’t be cost effective (human tissue grows slowly)
    3. There would be the risk of prion transfer so it would be an unnecessary risk

  10. Boerwar@50:

    [Kevvie even manages a sort of delicate balancing act between CofE and RC.

    How does he get away with that?]

    Because Anglicans and RCs are as near as dammit going to merge.

    For a start, the Pope is apparently going to accept married Anglican priests into the RC faith, last I heard.

    http://www.catholicnewsagency.com/new.php?n=14931

    [Rome, Italy, Jan 29, 2009 / 05:52 pm (CNA).- In a move that could help bring hundreds of thousands of Anglicans into the Catholic Church, the Vatican’s Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith (CDF) has recommended that the Traditional Anglican Communion (TAC) be given a personal prelature if talks between the TAC and the Vatican succeed.

    An announcement could be made after Easter this year, according to the northwest Australian Catholic newspaper The Record. Pope Benedict XVI reportedly has taken a personal interest in the matter and has linked the effort at ecclesial union to the Year of St. Paul.]

  11. [Can anyone explain how finding a climate change sceptic/denier or two in the Labor Party changes the fact that the Libs are split down the middle on this issue?]
    OO ABC and Lib low lifes grasping at straws to divert attention away from and help the Libs maybe?

    The return of their old smears about Rudd ie
    Abusing staff
    Taking own hairdresser and pastry chef to Cophenhagen (lies of course)
    mustn’t be hitting the right note.

    So now we are back to big head phony Rudd going to Mary Mac’s church trying to take credit if she is Cannonised.

    Throw in suggestions that Labor is in so much trouble due to dissent in the ranks that Rudd will have to reshuffle his cabinet and they have thrown enough mud to hope some will stick.

  12. [I agree with Psephos on the “whale” argument. And if Psephos and I agree on something, there isn’t much wriggle room left. ]

    Diog, grovel, grovel, grovel. wRONg, wRONg, wRONg.

  13. Psephos

    But is it STILL a tradition? I remember reading somewhere that they hardly eat any of the whale meat, mostly it was used for pet food. I didn’t think that it was a tradition, as in one they actually practised.

    I guess that raises the question of “what is a tradition?” I would have to say that a tradition would need to be widely (or regularly) practised in a community, I don’t think eating whale meat is widely practised in Japan.

  14. [ Kevvie even manages a sort of delicate balancing act between CofE and RC.

    How does he get away with that?]

    Just another thing that Kev does that ‘cheezes’ the Oppn – you can literally see the hatred for Kev oozing out of some of them. He’s stolen their patch.

    [Well, of course he did, Glenn. He knew that Labor had just increased their chances of a landslide win in the next election.]

    Yeah – or else the Minister was glad to see that Robb was back from the depths of depression and able to make decisions once again. Perhaps he was congratulating Robb on cnquering his illness.

  15. BW, i swam to Norway few years ago and have actually tried my cuz at Stavanger. Since we always got bullied and eaten by our Big Bros, we will eat them everyday if we can.

  16. I know people who have eaten whale in restaurants in Japan. If I ever go there, I will try it. Anyway, I don’t care if they are hunting whale for petfood, provided they are not hunting endangered species. We kill kangaroo and fish for petfood. Why is it ethically worse to kill a whale than a cow or a chicken or a sardine? Either one believes it is ethically wrong to kill animals for food, in which case one must become a vegetarian, or one doesn’t, in which case it’s as OK to kill one animal as another. I don’t believe in a “hierarchy of cuteness” which makes it OK to eat sheep but not OK to eat whales or dogs.

  17. [Anyone heard anything about this? It’s Milne so the chance of it being true is pretty minimal.]
    Of course Milne doesn’t consider that the cabinet minster was happy because Robb’s speech will help Labor win the next election.

    [But since I eat lamb and beef and chicken, I can’t see any defensible ground for arguing that Japanese should be prevented from eating whale, just because our culture (now) finds it offensive.]
    If the Japanese figure out a way to farm whales then they can slaughter as many as they like. Until then, they should at least limit their hunting to species that aren’t endangered or even vulnerable.

    The cultural argument is quite silly though, only 5% of Japanese eat whale meat at least once a week, but at least it is a better excuse than the “scientific research” argument which of course is just lying, and treating the rest of the world as if we are all idiots.

  18. [Anyway, I don’t care if they are hunting whale for petfood, provided they are not hunting endangered species. ]
    Well they do, Fin, Sei, and Brydes whales are all endangered, and sperm whales are vulnerable.
    [We kill kangaroo and fish for petfood. Why is it ethically worse to kill a whale than a cow or a chicken or a sardine? ]
    Because kangaroo’s aren’t an endangered species. And the fish we use for petfood is what isn’t fit for human consumption, so if it wasn’t used for pet food it would just be wasted.

  19. Didn’t we shoot whales with Harpoons out of Byron Bay up until the 1960s? I remember the fuss about the town dying when whaling was stopped.

    Whaling is not going to be stopped in Iceland or Norway or by Japan but I wish they could find a more humane way of killing them.

  20. 101 scorpio

    I thought the exact same thing.

    Labor had thrown everything including the kitchen sink at Turnbull but he still stood tall in parliament day after day. “Thank you Mr. Speaker. My question is to the Prime Minister…” Credit where it’s due; Turnbull is one hell of a tough hombre.

    The handshake and smile was an acknowledgement that Robb had succeeded where Labor had not.

    The problem for Robb and the Liberals is that theirs was not an honorable front on attack but rather a stiletto driven into Turnbull’s heart from behind. A wounded Turnbull has crawled off to the Christmas break with revenge in mind. Ending the political careers of those who betrayed him will be his driving force. I hope he succeeds. 😉

  21. [Whaling is not going to be stopped in Iceland or Norway or by Japan but I wish they could find a more humane way of killing them.]
    They can’t, they are too big. ABC1 showed a documentary this year showing what happens to them if they are beached. Even the juveniles have skulls that are so thick they must be killed using explosives.

  22. [Didn’t we shoot whales with Harpoons out of Byron Bay up until the 1960s? I remember the fuss about the town dying when whaling was stopped.]

    And Albany until the early 80’s went there a couple of times – it stunk like hell.

  23. Chris Master pinpoints what is wRONg with Your ABC, namely Empty-headed opinion. There are so many of them at Your ABC, they seem to be competing to see who has the biggest Empty Head. Too many to mention:

    [Empty-headed opinion will spoil the ABC – Opinion without fact is next to useless. The problem is not opinion per se but an absence of research. I have a suggestion. For the sake of public health perhaps we should require columnists to identify their research. Just like the one, two or three star energy ratings you see on appliances there could be small telephone icons beside a column to identify how many calls were made.

    When I was researching my book ‘Jonestown’ on vociferous commentator Alan Jones I coined a term ‘the reverse index of certainty’. What I had noticed was the less the research the stronger the opinion. There is a danger younger journalists will take the cue seeing that the job is more about original analysis than original research. I became tired of my own voice when telling younger reporters the job is to put information on the net rather than take it off the net……………………….

    I say again I am not an enemy of opinion – but rather empty headed opinion. If the journalism we know and respect is to survive we have to do better. And the ABC is I am sure smart enough to know there is no comfort in a weakening of competition. Australia is well served by the contest of public and commercial media with both sides the lesser if one is to fail.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/stories/s2770985.htm

  24. Joe Lieberman has to be the biggest idiot of all time. The new Senate compromise is to expand Medicare so people aged 55 to 64 can buy Medicare coverage, instead of a public option. Now Lieberman says he will filibuster that, even though support for the public option in his state is over 60%!
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/12/13/lieberman-tells-reid-to-h_n_390416.html

    Lieberman is heavily reliant on campaign donations from insurance companies, many of them have their head offices in Connecticut.

    There’s a great summary of Lieberman’s changing opinions on healthcare here:
    http://www.slate.com/id/2234497/

    If Lieberman votes against this I hope the Democrats remove him from his committee chair so he can finally become a Republican. That seems to be what he wants.

  25. Adam@82:

    [Whale meat is a traditional part of the diet in both Japan and Scandinavia.]

    [No, it’s a stupid rebuttal, actually. The first part is irrelevant. Cannibalism is no longer acceptable in human society, including PNG society – since the great majority of PNGers are now Christians.]

    Make up your mind, you can’t have it both ways.

    At one point when it suits, you justify killing whales because it is traditional.

    Then you say [I didn’t argue that everything which is traditional can be defended on those grounds. ]

    Are you Arthur or Martha? Or both?

    Bait and switch, it’s called.

  26. [Make up your mind, you can’t have it both ways. ]
    Plus, how is it traditional NOW if only 5% of Japanese eat whale meat once a week?

  27. I said several times I’m opposed to killing endangered species, whether whales or anything else. If the Japanese are doing that, they should be stopped. This discussion arose from a news story about Minke whales, which are not endangered. If the Japanese want to eat Minke whales, or feed them to their pets, I see no ethical difference between that and killing (non-endangered species of) kangaroos for human or pet consumption. There are 127m people in Japan, so 5% of them eat whale that’s 6.3m people, who I imagine can get through a lot of whale in a year.

  28. [There are 127m people in Japan, so 5% of them eat whale that’s 6.3m people, who I imagine can get through a lot of whale in a year.]
    5% tells me that in the year 2009 it is far from a traditional practice. It is something that most Japanese people have moved on from.

    So, the tradition argument is ultimately bogus (like the scientific one). They should instead agree to stop whaling endangered species, and only stick to minke whales. Until then their arguments are stupid and they should be taken to court to proven them as such.

  29. Adam@123:

    [Either one believes it is ethically wrong to kill animals for food, in which case one must become a vegetarian, or one doesn’t, in which case it’s as OK to kill one animal as another]

    Fair enough. I’ve eaten cat inadvertently (a fantastic Pakistani curry house in Montreal) and it was delicious.

    But how do you think selling dog and cat meat at your local Woolies supermarket would go over?

    Adam, you appear not to understand humans. Are you a Klingon?

  30. Sometimes, when I drop into Pollbludger it seems as if I’ve inadvertantly fallen into an alternative universe. Cannibalism, where does it stop and end? Well, what about the intelligence of the animal? Squids are really smart, really smart, so they’re off the menu.
    Personally, I reckon the Libs. are cannibalising anyone who could do anything useful, though Abbott isn’t remotely useful. What a loser.

  31. [I’ve always had this problem. I find it very hard to communicate with non-rational species.]

    Herr Doktor, no, we are not having you. 😛

  32. From a CO2 emissions point of view it is profligate to eat cats and dogs and good to eat vegetables.

    If the cost of CO2 emissions were to be included in the price of cats and dogs, I have no objection. They could have their own aisle in the supermarkets. It could be called the PetSnacks Section.

    While I do not know the precise figures, I imagine that a cat would cost about the same in CO2 emissions as a 100Kg of carrots.

    (figures v. rubbery… but you get the drift.)

  33. Psephos, it’s about time you got your head around the non-rational. You may not like or be comfortable with it, but it’s as important to understand this territory as booth reporting. Well, maybe you don’t have to understand human behaviour, just recognise it as a separate discipline.

  34. HSO –

    [though Abbott isn’t remotely useful. What a loser.]

    Evidence – the Essential poll today. He certainly isn’t getting a honeymoon period.

  35. HSO@140:

    [Personally, I reckon the Libs. are cannibalising anyone who could do anything useful]

    Ain’t it grand?

    It’s going to be a bloodbath at the next election I reckon. I can hardly wait.

    All the signs are there.

    Crash through or crash from Abbott.

    Barnyard giving light relief.

    The undertaker giving ghoul impersonations.

    Joe becoming less and less relevant. Poor bugger, I feel for him, but he brought it on himself. If only he had joined Malcolm on the back bench and maintained his dignity and integrity.

    The only people missing are Pauline and Joh. Jeez I miss Joh.

    But roll on election night!

  36. [Psephos, it’s about time you got your head around the non-rational.]
    Just as long as it can be examined in a rational ways… 😀

  37. [It’s going to be a bloodbath at the next election I reckon. I can hardly wait. ]
    Well, it won’t happen without the efforts of thousands of people campaigning to make it so.

    It won’t be a simple task for Labor campaigning on the ETS.

  38. Further to cannibalism, from a CO2 emissions point of view, cannibal food should be marked clearly in shops so the that informed purchaser can make relevant choices.
    Cannibale food derived from a person who is a carnivore will have generated far more CO2 to reach an equivalent body weight of a vegetarian.

    The ethical consumer, mindful of CO2 emissions, would want to know the true CO2 emissions cost of every purchase.

  39. [Squids are really smart, really smart, so they’re off the menu.]

    Harry, salt and pepper squids are the best with fresh chillies & coriander and with Neil Diamond singing LIVE: Solitary Man. How good can you get.

  40. BH, got off to a splendid start. Hah! I thought Turnbull was a terrible politician. Abbott is even worse, particularly with the bloke from the bush with the steam powered abacus powering his thought process (one neuron at a time please).
    They’re worse than rubbish. If there were anyone left in the Lib. Partry with an ounce of sense, they’d be taking all of tha main players out the back and applying gaffer tape to all orifices that could offer an opinion about anything.

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