Essential Research: 58-42

westpollgraphic141209

The latest Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead at 58-42 for the third successive week. Also included are leadership approval ratings (Kevin Rudd predictably little changed on a fortnight ago; Tony Abbott with mediocre ratings, which is much better than Turnbull had been doing); Copenhagen (important, but unlikely to reach agreement); and “Christmas spending”. We’ve also had a 400-sample of Western Australian voters from Westpoll (see right) which has federal Labor’s lead in the state at 53-47 (compared with 53-47 against in 2007). The West Australian takes this to mean Abbott “has largely proved a turn-off for WA voters”, but it might equally be to do with Westpoll’s low-sample volatility, which has seen the score go from 55-45 in February to 50-50 in May to 53-47 in December.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,339 comments on “Essential Research: 58-42”

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  1. [The problem that should be vexing Bolt is this: ‘Why are hundreds and hundreds of RURAL weather stations around the globe showing temperature increase over time?’]
    Well, his answer to that would be because when scientists homogenise the data (to account for the fact there are vast areas of earth where there are no weather stations, and weather stations tend to be closer to sea level) they are deliberately adding an increase so they can pretend that there is a warming.

  2. [On Gay marriage ]

    Please, same-sex marriage. It’s the gender that’s the problem, not the sexual orientation. Two men can’t get married, even if they’re 100% heterosexual. But if Bob Brown and Penny Wong want to get married, that’s fine.

  3. I had a look at that algal synthesiser link and a few others on the same subject, dating back to mid-November.

    1. They are ALL the same press release only slightly changed, if at all.

    2. They are mostly in mining magazines.

    Not saying that the technology’s a fizzer or anything like that, but are there any independent sources of information on this?

  4. So the Essential Poll was taken before Shadow Finance Minister Joyce expelled the Chinese investors, decided to break up the banks and reduced the credit rating of Queensland?

  6. [But if Bob Brown and Penny Wong want to get married, that’s fine.]

    Eww, what a horrible thought – and won’t the usual suspects be upset 🙂

  7. [Please, same-sex marriage. It’s the gender that’s the problem, not the sexual orientation. Two men can’t get married, even if they’re 100% heterosexual. But if Bob Brown and Penny Wong want to get married, that’s fine.]

    Because marriage is between a man and a woman. Haven’t you been listening to Dear Leader lately Adam?

    Wait… is this one of those once in a blue moon times that Adam disagrees with Rudd? *falls over*

  8. [On Gay marriage it seems that Rudd thinks that there isn’t enough demand for it while he is P.M., but within about 10 years it will be legalised, it is just a matter of social change occurring in due season.]

    Another one! Whoa! Is this the start of mass defiance on PB against Dear Leader?

  9. I consider same-sex marriage a second-order issue, but I disagreed with Rudd’s overruling of the earlier ACT act, and I said so at the time. I’m pleased that he’s come to a compromise with the ACT over the current act. As should be clear from the earlier discussion, I also disagree with the ALP policy of completely ruling out nuclear energy for Australia. I also think we should be selling uranium to India.

    *bye for now*

  11. [Wait… is this one of those once in a blue moon times that Adam disagrees with Rudd? *falls over*]
    We’ve been through this hundreds of times. A same sex couple should file a case in a federal court claiming that the Marriage Act contravenes the Anti-Discrimination Act. If the High Court agrees, then same sex marriage will be legalised as soon as the court makes its rulling.

  12. [Another one! Whoa! Is this the start of mass defiance on PB against Dear Leader?]
    Now, now there’s no reason to be an idiot. Many here often agree with Government policy on things like nuclear power, internet filtering, media censorship, same sex marriage, hand outs for car companies and private health insurance companies.

  13. [Another one! Whoa! Is this the start of mass defiance on PB against Dear Leader?]
    This from a person who doesn’t disagree with the Greens on anything.

  16. “But if Bob Brown and Penny Wong want to get married, that’s fine.”

    “Eww, what a horrible thought ”

    No more horrible than Johnny Howard and Bronny Bishop getting it on. We can thank their lovechild for providing that visual.

    Excuse me while I reach for the bucket… :-O

  18. 61

    I am pretty sure that the 2004 legislation is worded to prevent this. I am sure that an exemption to anti-discrimination laws was included.

  19. No way! I’ve been banned from Andrew Bolt’s blog. It took them a week, but they finally figured out that all my posts agreed with a poster, but then provided links to demonstrate that they are completely wrong.

  23. [That’s what you do here too! Thankfully, William is more tolerant of scallywags.]

    GG, i just put that in the /cliche_generator/ and it came with Bilbo’s BroadChurch. Methinks Howie has also been using it for yonk.

  25. Anyone heard anything about this? It’s Milne so the chance of it being true is pretty minimal.

    [If Rudd wants a reshuffle, I’ll give him the trigger he needs. He might want to start by sacking the cabinet minister who walked up to Andrew Robb at Sydney airport immediately after Robb had made his tipping point partyroom intervention on the ETS that effectively sunk both it and Turnbull.

    Robb told colleagues that the minister, a well-known ETS sceptic came up to him, broke out into a broad smile and gave him a congratulatory handshake. The cabinet minister then strolled away, still smiling, without uttering a word.

    He didn’t need to.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/opinion/tony-abbott-adds-the-right-stuff-in-moderation/story-e6frg6zo-1225809978987

  26. Astrobleme, he’s a former PM’s fave RW historian, now also suffering relevance deprivation syndrome. The best way to treat him is to read the “just-in style” synopses & not give him the ego-kick of a hit.

  27. Kakur@1039:

    [“Whale meat is a traditional part of the diet in both Japan and Scandinavia.”

    Well, cannibalism is a traditional part of the diet in parts of New Guinea. That alone doesn’t make it right. Simply arguing a practice should be retained sinply because it is “traditional” is a circular argument.

    Besides, if you’re going to argue tradition, then the hunting methods should be traditional as well. To their credit, the natives of Alaska do use traditional hunting techniques when whaling. But this doesn’t exactly apply to the Japanese, does it? The shogunate wasn’t famous for sending enormous whaling vessels to the Southern Ocean.]

    Woohoo!

    Way to go, what a fantastic rebuttal!

  28. [Robb told colleagues that the minister, a well-known ETS sceptic came up to him, broke out into a broad smile and gave him a congratulatory handshake. The cabinet minister then strolled away, still smiling, without uttering a word.]

    Diog, like Robb, i feel really depressed now. 😥

  29. Diogenes

    Anyone heard anything about this? It’s Milne so the chance of it being true is pretty minimal.

    (a) No (b) More Buckley’s & Nunn’s, I opine (c) And I was kidnapped by little blue women from Venus!

  30. OzPolTragic

    Wow, what a freak. He’s suggesting that these 9, 12, and 14 year old girls had to be removed from the community becuase they were seducing men. What planet is he from?

  31. According to the China Daily (English version of the People Daily), China is dead keen to get a result at HopingHagen. The price of failure is too high for everyone. There will be a good Agreement from HopingHagen.

    [Wen on whirlwind phone diplomacy for climate change, Updated: 2009-12-14 07:15 – In the days leading up to his flight this week to Copenhagen, Premier Wen Jiabao has been on a marathon telephone diplomacy with major global leaders, a key indicator that the nation is “vigorously” pushing for a climate change treaty at the United Nations conference.

    With the Chinese delegation negotiating at the Danish capital, the premier’s last-ditch efforts make up China’s two-front push to coordinate stances between international players and gain consensus on global warming.

    Yesterday, Wen spoke over the phone with South Africa’s President Jacob Zuma after the premier exchanged views with UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon on Friday.

    Beginning last Tuesday, the premier spoke with five other major leaders in separate phone conversations over climate change. Wen on whirlwind phone diplomacy for climate change

    “Premier Wen’s busy climate-related schedule is a gesture to show that this country is vigorously trying to get positive results from the summit,” said Huang Shengchu, president of China Coal Information Institute. ]

    http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2009-12/14/content_9167478.htm

  32. [“Whale meat is a traditional part of the diet in both Japan and Scandinavia.”

    Well, cannibalism is a traditional part of the diet in parts of New Guinea. That alone doesn’t make it right. Simply arguing a practice should be retained sinply because it is “traditional” is a circular argument.

    Besides, if you’re going to argue tradition, then the hunting methods should be traditional as well. To their credit, the natives of Alaska do use traditional hunting techniques when whaling. But this doesn’t exactly apply to the Japanese, does it? The shogunate wasn’t famous for sending enormous whaling vessels to the Southern Ocean.

    Woohoo!

    Way to go, what a fantastic rebuttal!]

    No, it’s a stupid rebuttal, actually. The first part is irrelevant. Cannibalism is no longer acceptable in human society, including PNG society – since the great majority of PNGers are now Christians. I didn’t argue that everything which is traditional can be defended on those grounds. I wouldn’t defend killing animal species which are endangered, no matter how traditional it is. But since I eat lamb and beef and chicken, I can’t see any defensible ground for arguing that Japanese should be prevented from eating whale, just because our culture (now) finds it offensive. I also eat pork, which Muslims and Jews find offensive. The second part is ridiculous. Just because something is traditional, it doesn’t follow that it should always be done the traditional way. It’s traditional to eat goose at Christmas. My grandmother used to buy them live and cut their heads off herself. That is no longer the practice, but it doesn’t follow that the traditional must be abandoned.

  35. [Yesterday, Wen spoke over the phone with South Africa’s President Jacob Zuma after the premier exchanged views with UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon on Friday.]
    Kev said on Agenda that he had spoken to South Africa’s President last night too.
    Looks like they are all passing on the latest happenings to each other.

  36. Psephos

    Can you condone the methods they use to kill whales, that seems to be the biggst problem.

    I don’t buy the ‘tradition’ argument either. I don’t believe that eating whale meat is traditional for the Japanese.

  37. 82

    Whales are too large and aquatic to be killed in a non-cruel manner. This is different from cattle, sheep, birds and most other animals eaten by humans.

    Cannibalism related ethical question.

    Is it unethical to eat stem cell made human meat (stem cell meat being a likely development in meat in the next few decades as it used less resources per kg of meat) as there is no human suffering?

  38. To clarify a few things:
    Dave,
    I appologies for and withdraw the slags comment. It was uncalled for. I don’t withdraw my Life Of Brian analogy to do with the ALP/LIB/NAT being the Romans though. The reasons are down the page. I meant that parties and organizations dedicated to transforming our destructive economy to a sustainable one should put their differences aside, not that the Greens and ALP should get along.

    Wakefield
    You are quite correct that there are nuances in opinion and I can’t label all ALPers as the badguys. I have no beaf with those ALP members that oppose the ALP policy of unsustainable growth and of long term environment damage for short term GDP. I do have to question though, why do they give support to such a regime? If you’re talking about who I think you’re talking about(talked near the end?) then at one point during her WalkAW speach she pretty much said we should just trust the government to do the right thing! She wasn’t popular in my huddle of “ferrals”.

    Let’s get a few facts straight. Every year the environment is in a worse situation than it was last year. Every year there is more CO2, more deforestation, less fish and less of the oil our economy is built on. Where do you think this is heading? What will happen to our economy if we don’t turn it around? There have always been doomsday predictions but now in any given copy of ‘Nature’, ‘Science’ or other reputable peer reviewed scientific journals the chances are you’ll find something that harbers bad news for the economy. Many groups and parties realize this, the Greens are not alone. But this government and indeed almost every government in the world is failing to adress this. At best sometimes they might manage to slow the rate of destruction but we are along way off of actually turning things around. As Boerwar said in the last post, these problems have come about under capitalism, but other systems also lack solutions. Old Fashion Social Democracy, conservativism, Stalinism, Faschism – none have been able to heal Earths wounds.

    But there is a solution, all over the world campaigns for a green New Deal are afoot.
    During WWII all aspects of the economy were geared towards the war effort. In a short space of time we achieved significant technalogical advances and mobilized millions of troops. Today CO2 posses an even greater threat to our security than even those rechard Axis Powers did. If we put in the same commitment to ecology now than we did to war then, then Earth can be saved. Instead of building tanks, we’ll build renewable power stations, instead of inventing the atomic bomb we’ll invent mass renewable transport methods and instead of raising an army of soldiers, we will raise an army of engineers and builders.

    But these plans are being actively discouraged by our government. Make no mistake, inaction on peak oil, AGW, etc will cost lives, on a small scale it already is. In this light how is the ALP government not the enemy?

  39. Vera, no worries. Kev will come back from HopingHagen with a roll-up thick document that he will use to march up to Abbott and whack him with.

    Just like that Spagettisconi was whacked by a cathedral, fancy that being whacked by a cathedral in Italy. Is the Pope a Catholic or something?

  40. mysay
    Agreed with what you said about Rudd being able to have a quiet moment to collect himself and pray if that’s his want before he heads over to Copenhagen.
    I say why not try everything to get an agreement 🙂

  41. Finns
    That Spagettisconi got a couple of teeth knocked out, I’ll settle for Abbott getting the “shiteating grin” knocked outa him.

  42. “Wait… is this one of those once in a blue moon times that Adam disagrees with Rudd? *falls over*”

    Just in case anyone was wondering, December is actually a ‘blue moon’ month. (ie two full moons in a month – 31 december) Three years since the last

  43. Besides the obvious ethical problems isn’t cannabilsm bad for your health? I’m not sure on the details but I think if it isn’t properly cooked then you could pick up their diseases on something,?

  44. [That Spagettisconi got a couple of teeth knocked out]

    Vera, That Spagettisconi got hit at the wrong place, it should be the other couple of things that knocked out, then he will know he aint Tiger. 😉

  45. 91

    Silvio should be getting convicted (providing he is guilty) not assaulted. I can settle for Abbott just suffering electoral defeat.

  46. [as a lowley grandma i read you some days i wonder and i am a labor person and i do enjoy you lot and learn a lot as well.
    but i often wonder do you all work are you students are you retired.
    just sticky beaking.; I noticed a bit on crickey that keane thinks that Mr. rudd is
    just going to the mary mckillop chapel to pray and be in with the in crowd.]

    Welcome mysay – as Vera says the PM’s use of quiet moments wherever he wants to have them would be of great benefit to him.

    Bernard Keane obviously did not hear the Catholic Nun who said this morning that the PM has been praying in their Church since he has inhabited Kirribilli as he grew up as a Catholic.

    As for being able to post here – most of us are retired or semi-retired and others post as they can between their worktime. I agree with you that you can learn a lot on this site. These guys are really knowledgeable. Just scroll past the fights!! lol.

  49. Astrobleme

    I had quite a large post on the Windschuttle piece which seems to have vaporised.

    The main points I was trying to make were:
    (1) the way in which bureacrats were ‘forced’ to take girls from their families because they were having sex with whitefellas.
    (2) the fact that the whitefellas were never prosecuted for what amounted to rape.
    (3) Where is the justice that Aboriginal families were ripped apart but the real perps were never taken on?

    Naturally Windschuttle does not think about this perspective.

  50. Mr Squiggle – Psephos has always expressed those views. The Labor party is full of different views and they are expressed within the Party and fought over at times. It’s called your democratic right to express your view but just as on election day, the majority view takes the winning spoils.

    Good interview today by the PM with Kieran Gilbert before he headed off o/s.

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