Third time lucky?

Nathan Rees’ 15 month premiership of New South Wales has come to an end following his 47-21 defeat in a party leadership vote by Heffron MP Kristina Keneally. Of course, what New South Wales needs is not a new Labor leader but an election and a change of government, and the fact that there is little prospect of this occurring until March 2011 raises questions about the state’s electoral and constitutional arrangements. Keneally becomes Australia’s fourth female premier, and the third to be granted the stewardship of a doomed Labor government. Rees has not said what he plans to do now: notwithstanding the current margin of 14.4 per cent, Labor would probably start the underdog in a by-election for his seat of Toongabbie.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

251 comments on “Third time lucky?”

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  1. I don’t see how anything will change when Rees himself says that Kristina, like he was, will only be a puppet, serving the NSW Right factional warlords.

  2. Elected to Toongabbie in 2007, elected Premier in 2008, and lost it in 2009. Is this the quickest meteoric rise and fall in Australian history?

  3. Nathan Rees is perfectly entitled to do the big dummy spit, piss off and force a byelection in Toongabbie. And Labor would be hard pressed to win it, especially as you can bet the local Labor party workers in that seat wouldn’t be happy, to put it mildly.

  4. “the third to be granted the stewardship of a doomed Labor government”.

    What’s to be done, to be done?

    More Catholic politicians. At least she is in a Labor Party.

    Prayer, prayer, prayer, is the answer.

    I think.

  5. I rather think that Labor will achieve what I thought would be impossible – an even worse electoral rout.

    Having said that, the coalition are hardly the most impressive bunch of alternative government either.

    And I would have said both comments in 2007 as well 🙁

  6. There’s something that I don’t quite get … All this media talk about powerbrokers like Tripodi or Obeid or whoever “controlling the votes” of a faction within the Caucus. Is there not a secret ballot in Caucus proceedings? So that how an MP votes is visible to all the other MPs and the factional warlords?

  7. [You really know it aint a good situation when peeps at Crikey start attacking a Labor government.]

    And that’s why I get annoyed when I see Labor hacks saying they still back the government. If I lived in NSW I might even perhaps consider voting Liberal, on the logic that Labor needs an electoral routing so they can blood a stack of fresh MPs in at the next election.

    The worst result would be a close result. NSW Labor, like the federal coalition, needs a good cleaning out, so they can return to competent government and remove the coalition ASAP.

  8. Mmmh, Hemingway.

    While I was not really listening, I heard vaguely a piping voice on PM.

    So unengaging I did not bother to find out who it was or why.

    Guess it must have been she.

  9. [There’s something that I don’t quite get … All this media talk about powerbrokers like Tripodi or Obeid or whoever “controlling the votes” of a faction within the Caucus. Is there not a secret ballot in Caucus proceedings? So that how an MP votes is visible to all the other MPs and the factional warlords?]

    Who do you think the MPs owe their seats to?

  10. One of the, to me, delightful surprises of the current federal government, is how it just oozes competence – Gillard; Wong etc etc

    NSW state labor needs a serious injection of competence…an interest in executing good public administration, which appears to be a completely absent objective for the last several years

  11. I believe in gay marriage and equal rights, and a social policy of mutual respect and tolerance.

    I believe in a new social-democratic compact for rebuilding our decaying cities, including desperately-needed investment in schools, hospitals, and ESPECIALLY transport infrastructure.

    I believe in ethical government not dominated by the loudest voices or the deepest pockets.

    The Liberals would, in some respects, be worse than Labor on these grounds. That does not entitle Labor to my vote. What Labor has done in government, and especially in the last few days, DISqualifies Labor from my vote.

    Labor must go. It doesn’t matter what you believe on social issues. It doesn’t matter if you’re gay or straight, Christian, Muslim or atheist, libertarian or communist, you must agree: this is a rotten government, dominated by the worst factional hacks, utterly disinterested in the best interests of this state.

    I’m starting a movement called Labor for O’Farrell. Labor voters, interested in traditional Labor values, who just want Labor gone, by any means necessary: I don’t CARE who replaces them I just want them to GO AWAY forever and let this state be. Who’s with me?

  12. Uhg. Terrible. As a Labor supporter I say, vote this ship of fools out at the next election.

    This travesty of a government, not even worthy of the name government, has convinced me forever that fixed terms are BAD BAD BAD idea.

  13. I had previously asked Bludgers about the impact of her accent because I migrated here from Western America at about the same age as KK, and my accent is nearly identical to hers.

  14. When one thinks of the quality of ministers in Rudd’s cabinet, it is unfathomable why NSW has so many duds. A mediocre polly like David Campbell is one of their best, for god sake.

  15. [But the sad thing is that O’Farrell’s mob aren’t any better!
    A plague on both their houses!]

    NSW Labor is so incompetent and inept that I actually think the LibNats would do better in that department. But as for their policy and moral judgement, pfft. Not salvageable.

  16. Laocoon,

    Yep, but 4 year terms are the only option for US state governments, and we knew how badly it works there before passing the referendum in NSW.

  17. NSW Labor is so incompetent and inept that I actually think the LibNats would do better in that department. But as for their policy and moral judgement, pfft. Not salvageable.

    Agreed, I’m getting to that point too. You should be happy though, lots of dissafected Labor voters will be moving to The Greens, I know I would be doing it if I lived in NSW.

  18. Hemingway

    Yes – just anger coming through…I have my cricket bat ready for March 11 😀

    BTW, the sad thing about the “we knew how badly”, is that I suspect “we knew how badly” state labor was in 2007 as well

  19. [Agreed, I’m getting to that point too. You should be happy though, lots of dissafected Labor voters will be moving to The Greens, I know I would be doing it if I lived in NSW.]

    I quit the Labor Party in protest against Bob Carr’s sociopathic reign and have voted Greens in state elections ever since.

  20. Bob,
    If they can’t win a few seat with this opportunity, they won’t for decades hence. I wish them to have enough seats to hold the new government to the mark like the 4 Independents who made Greiner resign after the Metherhill affair. One was from my neck of the woods, Hatten.

  21. [Tend to agree. Which seats do you think? Balmain? Marrickville?

    Any others?]

    I’m not deeply in to NSW politics, i’m more SA politics. I see seat names get thrown around a bit, Balmain and Marrickville certainly up there. But swings aren’t even and some seats might go unexpected to the Greens whilst those more likely to infact don’t.

    Or not.

    I’m just making the prediction that whatever seats they are, the Greens will hold a number of them.

  22. Its OK getting rid of the incompetent Labour Govt.but how do you get rid of the incompetents in Sussex St,and break the hold of the unions on the party

  23. The greens might knock off the deputy premier

    The question I have is what is wrong with the 30% of people still voting labor. Here is a list of Labor’s accomplishment

    Fraud, child molestation, no power infrastructure – price to rise by 60% in 3 year, no rail infrastructure, hospital nurse has to buy their own supplies, no plan for water infrastruture. New hospital build do not have enough support for medical equipment, no housing planning leading to rental shortage, bribery by developers.

    I am just really surprise that anyone would still vote for this disaster. Kevin Rudd cannot even stand the NSW ALP

  24. [If they can’t win a few seat with this opportunity, they won’t for decades hence. I wish them to have enough seats to hold the new government to the mark like the 4 Independents who made Greiner resign after the Metherhill affair. One was from my neck of the woods, Hatten.]

    I support the Greens holding the sole balance of power in the Senate, as I did the Democrats. Our Senate compared to the lower is one of the most powerful on earth. The crossbench can be quite powerful in the ability to negotiate to the point of co-governing. The Democrats did a few times but the problem is that the major parties try and ignore the crossbench if they can by putting the opposition on the spot by taking a policy position and alternative, and insurance against a backlash if there’s a Lab-Lib yes vote.

  25. [how do you get rid of the incompetents in Sussex St,and break the hold of the unions on the party]

    John,
    As Hamlet said, “That is the question.” 🙂

  26. If we’re going to criticise those responsible for fixed four year terms, let’s blame the right people. Take a bow the voters of NSW. NSW is the only state to adopt four year terms by referendum. The Independents fixed the term of the 1991-95 parliament, those since have been created by the referendum.

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