Tony Abbott has emerged victorious from this morning’s Liberal leadership showdown after defeating Malcolm Turnbull 42 votes to 41, with Joe Hockey unexpectedly knocked out in the first round. The result joins 1971’s tied no-confidence motion against John Gorton and Mark Latham’s 47-45 win over Kim Beazley in 2003 in the pantheon of leadership ballot cliffhangers. Whether this episode is likely to end more happily than the other two, I leave to others to judge (UPDATE: Tim Blair identifies a more auspicious example). Two factors of immediate electoral significance: a secret ballot held immediately after the leadership vote decisively determined that the Coalition would oppose the emissions trading scheme, confirming the government will receive its double dissolution trigger; and Malcolm Turnbull has announced he will not resign from parliament, thus depriving us of a by-election in Wentworth.
If anyone’s interested, here are some more mundane electoral developments of the past week or so:
• The NSW Greens have chosen Nature Conservation Council executive director Cate Faehrmann to fill the state upper house vacancy that will be created when Lee Rhiannon runs for the Senate at the next federal election. Andrew Clennell of the Sydney Morning Herald notes that Faehrmann ran unsuccessfully for Senate preselection against Rhiannon with the backing of Bob Brown. The party has also finalised its upper house ticket for the next state election: David Shoebridge, barrister and Woollahra councillor, will take the unloseable first position; Byron Bay mayor Jan Barham will take the highly winnable second position; and Orange City councillor Jeremy Buckingham will get the rather more difficult third position. Clennell reports this as a defeat for the “harder left” tendency assoociated with Rhiannon, which backed Rockdale councillor Lesa de Leau. Faehrmann will not be required to run at the next election due to the chamber’s staggered eight-year terms.
• Michael Stedman of The Mercury reports that the Left has endorsed Jonathan Jackson, chartered accountant and son of former state attorney-general Judy Jackson, to replace retiring factional colleague Duncan Kerr in the Hobart-based federal seat of Denison. Stedman also names as a possible starter Australian Manufacturing Workers Union secretary Anne Urquhart, previously mentioned as the Left’s nominee for a Senate position after Kevin Rudd vetoed Electrical Trades Union secretary Kevin Harkins. Apparently still in contention are constitutional lawyer George Williams, Kerr staffer and state Lyons candidate Rebecca White, and local state member Lisa Singh.
• Speaking to reporter James Carleton on Radio National Breakfast with Fran Kelly yesterday, local branch president and Wran government minister Rodney Cavalier complained Stephen Jones was to be given the Throsby preselection as reward for affiliating his Community and Public Sector Union with the ALP. Jones has been the only nominee for a position the national executive will rubber-stamp on Friday, having decided to deny local branches a ballot. Sources cited by Carleton also say outgoing member Jennie George was “pushed into retirement under threat of disendorsement”, although George denies this.
• Nigel Adlam of the Northern Territory News reports three candidates are believed to be interested in the Country Liberal Party preselection for the ultra-marginal Darwin-based seat of Solomon, where Labor’s Damian Hale narrowly defeated sitting member David Tollner (now in the Territory parliament) in 2007. The three are “Darwin City Council alderman Garry Lambert, Palmerston Deputy Mayor Natasha Griggs and Tourism Top End head Tony Clementson”. Tennant Creek businessman Tony Civitarese is mentioned as the likely candidate to run against Warren Snowdon in the Territory’s other electorate, Lingiari.
• Rebecca Lollback of the Northern Star reports Clunes businessman Kevin Hogan has been preselected unopposed as Nationals candidate for Page.
• Shannon Crane of the Border Mail reports the Victorian Nationals have preselected Moira deputy mayor Tim McCurdy to replace the retiring Ken Jasper in the state seat of Murray Valley. McMurdy reportedly saw off eight rival candidates, although the only one I can put a name to is former Olympic cyclist Dean Woods.
I wish QT was on this afternoon!
Julia, Swan and Tanner would have a field day!
WHAT? Abbott just caleld Bishop “a loyal girl”.
I thought she was a woman.
Hockey is the Mal Maninga of Liberal politics
So Abbott supports the reintroduction of WorkChoices, and climate change isn’t real.
How does he expect to win an election exactly…/
Ha Ha Ha…..Shit Happens!!!
That will be plastered all over billboards with hi photo in speedos if he is leader at the next election
LOL! How on earth could Abbott run a scare campaign against an ETS, while promoting a carbon tax at the same time?
When will Kev be back home? I hope parliament is still sitting when he does.
[The guy from Newspoll said yesterday that the high 50s for Labor is effectively a ceiling because beyond that are the rusted-on conservative voters.]
The guy from Newspoll lost all his credibility a few weeks ago when he played silly buggers with the rogue
Abbott was basically saying to the Australian people: Everything i told you was a lie.
Rudd must be sorely tempted to go for the DD early next year!
[LOL! How on earth could Abbott run a scare campaign against an ETS, while promoting a carbon tax at the same time?]
What can you say… he’s a moron
[WHAT? Abbott just caleld Bishop “a loyal girl”.
I thought she was a woman.]
He’s off to a flying start…
[What can you say… he’s a moron]
I’d rather use an expletive to describe him, but I’ll stick to William’s rules. 😉
Abbott’s honeymoon with the electorate lasted all of 30 seconds and ended the moment he opened his mouth. Forget his policies, he is an atrocious public performer.
Perhaps it’s for the best Rudd is out of the country. Gillard can tear strips off Abbott, while Rudd is representing Australia in meetings with other world leaders.
This works out perrrrrfectly for Aquaman. People Skills goes on to lose the unwinnable election, in a rout. Aquaman keeps his seat with a swing to him.
As the only credible candidate left standing after the election, he has a half decent shot at Kruddy. He can only do better (heaps betterer) than People Skills, and even if loses, will be kept on for the next go, where is is equal favourite against Kruddy or Gillard.
How long before it’s “Bring Back Turnball”? 🙂
As Xanthippe said, “Ponys for everyone” as in “The only way this situation could be improved would be if there were…”
Rudd should wait and see what they do to the ETS. If they vote it down, he should clarify that his statement on no DD was while Malcolm Turnbull was leader. There will now be a lot of people wanting a DD – 66% were in favour of an ETS. Also, if Copenhagen does reach a decision, and we are left out, a DD is justified.
So will Abbott rename opposition positions? Is he now Cardinal of the Liberal Party? Is Nick Minchin Papal Nuncio to the Senate? Will Hockey be shadow-Archbishop to the Treasury?
[Forget his policies, he is an atrocious public performer.]
That’s his style.
I have been saying that Abbott would lead the Libs for over a year, I jumped off that bus a few days ago.
Never follow my tips. 😉
Who picked the result?
Me. I did. 18 months ago @ $34 and 9 months ago @ $26.
I’ll be $2400 richer and the Liberal Party is STUFFED.
Happy days.
End gloat.
Regards.
LOL! So he thinks he can come up with a cheaper way to make the same emissions cuts.
Good luck with that.
[How on earth could Abbott run a scare campaign against an ETS, while promoting a carbon tax at the same time?]
He’s proposing a carbon tax?
[Forget his policies, he is an atrocious public performer.]
I know this is hard to believe, but Abbott is just the sort of public speaker that the right wing world-wide adores. Think Bush, McCain and Palin.
[He’s proposing a carbon tax?]
A journalist asked him on his previous position of supporting a carbon tax.
Judging on this press conference he’s going to have enormous trouble unshackling himself from the AGW denialists. He’s gone before he’s even really started!
Wow! Unbelievable!
I never would’ve thought it in my wildest dreams.
I knew the libs were screwed up, but I didn’t know it was quite so serious that they’d elect Loony tunes Abbott as leader!
This is an absolute gift for Kevin Rudd at the next election.
My prediction after the next election: Wilson Tuckey elected Liberal leader with a margin of 3 votes to two. I reckon he’ll get votes of Julie Bishop and Steve Ciobo, while the other contender, Sharman Stone, will get Paul Fletcher’s vote 😉
“I’m not here to annonce our climate change policy today”
“I-I-I-I—Well-well-well…. I ah-I ah”
gawd it’s painfull to listen too 😛
Fagin
I wouldn’t gloat yet. Abbott still needs to make it to the next election as leader. I’d be putting on a few savers if I was you.
Torny McGuire at the punch
Tony Abbott sounding really convincing as he lays out the grounds on which he will fight the next election. You can say many things about Abbott, but at least you know where he stands – Tors.
Are you kidding me? Over the past 2 weeks this man has had more positions than the Karma sutra!
[I know this is hard to believe, but Abbott is just the sort of public speaker that the right wing world-wide adores. Think Bush, McCain and Palin.]
IMO it’s more their religious nutjob views that the righties like
[As the only credible candidate left standing after the election, he has a half decent shot at Kruddy. ]
What is this, an Ackerman blog ?
[Rudd must be sorely tempted to go for the DD early next year!]
It might not be clear-cut whether he gets the trigger, depending on what the Senate does. The constitution doesn’t define “fail to pass”, so it’s not clear if shuffling it off to an inquiry qualifies. IMO it should, since otherwise you could send it to an inquiry that doesn’t report for a year, or two years. But the high court judges might not see it that way.
[Are you kidding me? Over the past 2 weeks this man has had more positions than the Karma sutra!]
Expect the entire right-wing commentariat to lie through their absolute eye-teeth about Abbott over the next few weeks. It will be a love-in.
The Armenian three card trick worked a treat for Mikoyan: Hockey made a meal of it.
[The constitution doesn’t define “fail to pass”, so it’s not clear if shuffling it off to an inquiry qualifies]
They don’t have the numbers to push it out to an inquiry. It won’t happen.
Dario,
I said you’d find it hard to believe. My right wing brother and his wife (both atheists) think that well-spoken pollies like Turnbull, Rudd and Obama just sound slick and phony.
Uhlman says (or larbor people said) did some of Abbotts people vote for Turnbull in the first round
[It might not be clear-cut whether he gets the trigger, depending on what the Senate does]
The opposition doesn’t have the numbers to send it off to a committee. Labor (32), the Greens (5), and Fielding (1) will oppose such a motion. That’s 38 so it will be defeated on a tied vote.
The Liberals finally need to vote the legislation down, but that just gives the moderate Liberals the opportunity to vote against it.
Crabb thinks there is a contest on now that abbott is leader!
At least she didn’t say Game On I suppose!
[Uhlman says (or larbor people said) did some of Abbotts people vote for Turnbull in the first round]
That’s a neat tactic if true. Risky, though.
[I said you’d find it hard to believe. My right wing brother and his wife (both atheists) think that well-spoken pollies like Turnbull, Rudd and Obama just sound slick and phony.]
They are in a very small minority. Most right wing religious nutjobs are supported by right wing religious nutjobs.
[Crabb thinks there is a contest on now that abbott is leader]
With who?
Turnbull’s press briefing was one the most impressive for a deposed leader that I’ve seen in a long time. No blubbering and maintaining his sense of humour, which calls to mind one of Peacock’s post-deposed pressers.
This has to be the best game of musical chears I have seen in my life……and when the music stopped Abbott got the last chair
Hahaha……….Shit Happens!!!
Dario,
It’s never wise to totally “misunderestimate” your political opponent! 🙂
One thing that does concern me is that for the first time since Howard/Rudd, we’re back to having two major party leaders who are both deeply religious and social/moral conservatives…
I’ve recently wasted 10 minutes of my life listening to Joyce rave and rant in the Senate and then Penny Wong point out that about an hour had been taken up with his fillibustering as they were actually supposed to be debating an amendment by Senator Milne.
Now that Abbott has become leader and the secret ballot opposes passing the bill – can’t it all jut be wound up quickly and go to the vote or do we have to endure another 1001 nights of this waffling? Sorry if this sounds a naive question. (And I do realise most of the Australian population isn’t actually listening to the proceedings but get any news via 3 second soundbites.
[Kev’s plane had trouble and he had to return to Washington, but every things OK now and he’s on his way home.]
Ignore the itallics oops!