Morgan: 61-39

Roy Morgan has leapt in with last weekend’s face-to-face polling of 1050 respondents, showing Labor’s lead has actually nudged slightly upwards: from 60.5-39.5 to 61-39. Labor’s primary vote is down one point to 51 per cent, but the Coalition’s is also down two to 32.5 per cent. Contra Newspoll, the Greens are up two to 9.5 per cent.

Other news:

• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports Julia Gillard hopes to save “soft Left” colleague Laurie Ferguson by moving him to Werriwa, whose member Chris Hayes would have to make do with Macarthur – in turn cutting loose Nick Bleasdale, the candidate from 2007 who appeared lined up for another shot. It appears Hayes will suffer that fate in any case, as it has been agreed Werriwa should go to the Left. However, Anthony Albanese’s “hard Left” wants it to go to Damien Ogden, an LHMU organiser who defeated incumbent Ken McDonnell for preselection in Sutherland Shire Council’s “E” ward before last year’s elections, but ultimately failed to win the seat. Hayes is understandably not keen, and is calling for the matter to be determined by the local branches – as Ferguson did last week when his ambition was to stay on in redrawn Reid at the expense of John Murphy. That appears to be off the table because the seat is reserved for the Right. Importantly, Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the Prime Minister is also of a mind to throw Ferguson a lifeline.

• VexNews tells of a further brush fire in Macquarie, to be vacated at the election by Bob Debus. According to VexNews, Debus and the hard Left would have the national executive decide the issue in favour of Susan Templeman, principal of Templeman Consulting, who sells herself as “one of the country’s leading media trainers and coaches”. However, local branches favour Debus antagonist Adam Searle, a “soft Left” member whose designs on Debus’s old state seat of Blue Mountains were thwarted by Debus’s recruitment of Phil Koperberg. When Debus agreed to make life easier for the Prime Minister by relinquishing his position in the ministry in June, Glenn Milne in The Australian reported talk he had done so on the condition that he get to choose his successor in Macquarie.

• The Australian reports Warren Entsch will try to win Leichhardt back for the LNP at the next election. Entsch retired before the last election, and Labor demolished the 10.3 per cent margin he had built up with a 14.3 per cent swing. He floated the possibility of running for Cairns or Barron River at the March state election, but thought better of it. Teresa Gambaro, who lost Petrie at the election, plans to nominate for Brisbane, where the redistribution has cut Labor’s margin from 6.8 per cent to 3.8 per cent. UPDATE: AAP has reported Gambaro has indeed been preselected (thanks to LTEP in comments).

• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports a preselection challenge from the Right to Philip Ruddock in Berowra has been withdrawn. The identity of the challenger is not offered.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

972 comments on “Morgan: 61-39”

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  1. I put this on the Sundry Slimes site on the Murdock cover which is not on the newas page,it turns out Peters is a correspondent for FAUX NEWS.
    Dear Mod,I,m trying to find the article by Ralph Peters on this site but cant, so just a question, you say he wrote a book,OK fine but what you did not say was this man is a correspondent for FOX NEWS, owned by Murdock and the leading propaganda machine for the Republican Party
    Fox News are anti Obama as is Murdock who funnily enough is anti Rudd as well, you just have to watch the bunch of right wing loonies on it to know that,from O’Reilly who tried to justify the murder of the doctor who worked in the abortion clinic to Beck and Hannity who spin the militia line on the President,and also concerning Beck said that Obama hated whites with no proof what so ever.
    These people are not a news network they are spinners for the mad right which is trying to take over the Republican party,much the same as the mad right has control of the Liberal party in WA, Tuckey, Campbell,Gorman et al.
    And are attempting the same Federally,I am curious as to why you made no mention of this mans links to FOX and NEWS LTD,or do you think that mentioning FOX NEWS tends to destroy the creditably of the person who wrote this,I await your reply.
    I doubt I will get it printed or a reply

  2. Thanks Poss – logic was deserting me for awhile, but you’ve reminded me of the discussions here about it before 24/11 and you were always right then.

  3. JR – in your dreams you’ll get that printed.

    Saw Helen Daley interviewing James Callon (?), former speech writer for Jimmy Carter, this am about Obama’s first year. Didn’t matter that it was only 10 months really.

    Everything the bloke said about Obama was questioned with a ‘BUT……’. I think Callon thought she was a bit of a crackpot. She even asked him about the Fox/Obama spat and he made comment that it was surprising to be asked that sitting in a Murdoch workplace. It was an awful interview to watch.

  5. Laocoon, MSM used to make a lot of money because “The medium was the message”. Now the medium only carries and delivers the message.

    Google saw that very early, you dont make money off the message, you make money off the transaction derived from the message. Clever people those Googlers.

    The MSM people still couldnt figure on how. Stupid people those MSMers.

  6. [The full talk from Rupert wasn’t there, but I did catch him saying that Rudd was “clearly delusional”.]

    No, you heard Michael Rowland describe his opinion thus. It is possible that this had the character of an indirect quote, but I’d rather doubt it – if he had, I suspect the media would have zeroed in on that, rather than his highly qualified assertions about Rudd’s sensitivity and ambitiousness. I’m willing to be proved wrong though.

  7. Good way to put it Finns

    [Google saw that very early, you dont make money off the message, you make money off the transaction derived from the message]

  8. [How much influence do you think The Australian actually has on the average voter?

    Think about who reads The Oz.]

    anyone know the readership numbers off hand?

  13. [Try this Grog – circulation, readership estimates and demographics of The Oz from June this year.]

    Poss, meaningless. For the last 12 months, The OZs are given away at least two days a week at North Sydney.

  16. Murdoch said it was “clearly delusional” to believe Australia could be “a bridge between China and the US”.

    I deleted that comment because it appeared redundant after what Antony and Possum had said, which I hadn’t seen when I posted it.

  18. Poss, exactly the point. If you are giving it away free, then you can control the demographic. eg: North Sydney, professional, esp: IT type.

  19. Finns – 1 kid lived in ACT until recently moving back to Syd. Every morning free OOs were chucked on the front lawn of the apartment block for anyone to pick. It made the place look like a newspaper dump.

    Do Newspoll publish the age groups for their polling. If not, why not.

  20. William@816:
    [Murdoch said it was “clearly delusional” to believe Australia could be “a bridge between China and the US”.]

    Quite right, sorry about that.

  24. Is the Age Newspaper aiming to become apart of the News Limited stabe! this morning this have shown how out of touch they really are for they have had another maon about why government projects are slow in being completed.

    This time they have had a go at the Victorian Department of Transport and in doing so have shown just how ignorance they are for there is a very big reason why projects are slow in being completed.

    It is called the Planning and Environmental processes that are required to be completed before any project can be carried out.

    I mention this for back in the 1990s the Age was forever bitching about the Kennet Government making decisions that overlooked community concerns.

    The Age Newspaper is worst than the Australian and i am curious are we the only country in the world with such a pathetic print media, sure if a project is lack find write about it but akll the Age does is snipe. Sam Newman has his critics but when it comes to the Age he has always been right.

    Back in the 1950s Liberal supporters use to say that the Age was good for one thing, toilet paper. and it really is hard to disagree.

  26. [Nonetheless, I’ll pass on your apologies to the great man at our next strategy meeting.]

    I think you mean, The Great Man.

    tsk tsk William; failure to capitalise when writing of The Great One will be noted.

    There goes your chance of getting that blog at The Oz.. 🙂

  27. Now, now Finns – we’re going to be kinder to the ABC to prove that we are superior in our analysis of things.

    After all, you and the PB cohorts did sort the Grech thing out quickly, have seen through Murdoch’s messages to his troops and have worked out that Howard is feeling very irrelevant now that Petey boy has got not 1, but 2, new jobs.

  29. In all seriousness there are two ways to look at Australia place in the world

    1) Half Class view – We are the largest land mass in the world, we have historically been close to Europe and North America and now have a healthy relationship with Asia and in light of China’s need for our resources we can in a small way influence China and America

    2) Half class full – We are a small country of 21 Million who are too small to influence anyone therefore we should look after our own backyard.

    It is known that older people tend to take the Half Class Full approach as do many blue collar people.

    I personally think Rupert has a point but has overstated it by saying we have no influence and to say otherwise is a delusion, the bit i agree with is that the major countries won’t be slashing their emissions if we do, actually i suspect they will say how nice and thanks for freeing up emissions for us to use.

    Now in saying that i am not saying we should do nothing but we do need to focus on those areas that we can make a difference,.

    I see a wonderful sunny day, if only we had several solar power plants, i would rather tha Government invest in such plants than need to compensate people with higher concessions, tax breaks and business subsidies

    We need to get our priories right and i just don’t believe the Federal or State Governments have reached that point.

  31. [meant for the ABC Childcare Centres]

    I’d forgotten about those centres. That was a mess due to poor regulation through the Howard years and Gillard had to find money for that instead of using it for more productive education stuff.

    I’m trying to work out why Howard and the media think that Rudd hasn’t made any hard decisions. I reckon just having to go into deficit would have been the hardest thing for Labor to do after all the discussions during the election campaign.

    Notice that Pete Garrett said he has had to sort out the dam in Qld project after the poor policy mess left by the Howard Govt. Now who was the Environment Minister then, I wonder!!
    ‘

  36. how US POlitics works:
    [In the run-up to a final vote, conservatives from the two political parties joined forces to impose tough new restrictions on abortion coverage in insurance policies to be sold to many individuals and small groups. They prevailed on a roll call of 240-194.

    Ironically, that only solidified support for the legislation, clearing the way for conservative Democrats to vote for it.]

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/11/07/house-health-care-vote-br_n_349468.html&cp

  38. Ah well at least one of the Murdoch family is caring.
    Roos No1 son is donating a new AS processing centre to Australians, I think.

    Secluded at the end of a private drive-way, the home is surrounded by sprawling North East gardens, sunny terraces, tennis court and a swimming pool. Superb Georgian architecture and 3.6 metre ceilings exude grandeur and elegance, while also offering an abundance of space for family living and entertaining on a lavish scale.

    Read more at: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/11/06/lachlan-murdoch-buys-mans_n_348506.html&cp

  39. I wrote this tweet about Cao:
    [Joseph Cao the lone Repub to vote yes for the health bill was a refugee from Vietnam in the 1970s…]

    I got this response from some guy in Texas:
    [You’d think he would have had enough communism.]

    yep. That’s American politics.

  43. [Interestingly the lone Repub to vote yes (Jo Cao) for the health bil was a refugee from Vietnam.]
    He represents a district that is overwhelmingly Democratic. It voted 75/25 for Obama for the Presidency. The only reason Cao won was because the Democratic candidate had been indicted on fraud charges (the FBI found $60,000 in his freezer).

    Voting for the health care bill was probalby his only hope of re-election. Also I believe he voted after the bill had already reached 218 votes, so his extra vote was really just symbolic.

  45. Two votes for the health bill came from members elected only last Tuesday (when the media hype was all about how gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia were a slap in the face for Obama). One of these two votes came from Bill Owens, the first Democrat elected in New York 23 since the Civil War. He only got there when the mad right forced the liberal Republican candidate out of the race and she endorsed Owens over a teabagger conservative. The other new vote was from a progressive Democrat who replaced a more conservative Democrat from California. So it was a near-run thing indeed, with plenty more drama to come from the Senate.

  46. I would love to see the US adopt a universal health system like our Medicare. Their people would love it. The Republicans would love it. Why, the Republicans will be the best friend their Medicare ever had in no time.

    I reckon the very real state of the polls are 56/44. With the boat people issue constantly in the media, I reckon it’s 54/46.

  47. Are MSM journalists seriously that stupid? You do not have to be a Labor or a Liberal person to be in charge of the future fund. I don’t mind the appointment of Cossie at all. The way Cossie delivered his budgets and managing a future fund are two COMPLETELY different positions.

    God, do you MSM journalists realise how HONESTLY stupid you are?

  48. Centre

    Unfortunately I just can’t see the US adopting any form of universal health care in the foreseeable future. There are far too many credulous, gullible and ignorant people there (especially in the south and mid-west) who are able to be taken in by the voluble and persistent talkback radio and FoxNews types who are in the pocket of the big corporations.
    It is “Dogwhistle Plus”.

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