Newspoll: 57-43 to Labor in Victoria

As if to refute any notion that polling disasters for the New South Wales and Queensland government can be put down to the electoral cycle, the latest Victorian state Newspoll finds the decade-old Labor government going from strength to strength. Labor’s two-party lead is at 57-43, compared with 56-44 two months ago and 54.4-45.6 at the November 2006 election. Its primary vote is 43 per cent, exactly where it was both two months and three years ago; the Liberals are down three points to 32 per cent, with the Nationals picking up one point of the slack by lifting to 3 per cent. The Greens are up three to 15 per cent, the same as in Queensland. Such results should surely spell mortal peril for Opposition Leader Ted Baillieu, but respondents have thrown him a bone with a seven point lift in his approval rating to 42 per cent, and a five point cut in disapproval to 38 per cent. Premier John Brumby’s approval is up three points to 49 per cent, but his disapproval is also up one to 39 per cent; his lead as preferred premier has gone from 51-24 to 52-27.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

83 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Labor in Victoria”

Comments Page 2 of 2
1 2
  1. What we have seen over the past 10 years of ALP is a conservative government that has slowly gone about it’s business. This has produced results, and has also escaped any major controversy. The opposition has basically failed to put together a coherent story. I believe that Kennet was in some ways good for the state at the time. Most importantly he changed the mood and the confidence. 2 things that are hard to quantify but if you can get right or improve, lead to everything else. I remember around 91 there were mass exoduses from Victoria to queensland. The amount of visible vacant commercial properties seemed to outnuber the occupied ones. When he hijacked the grand prix in 95 the old, delapidated and sometimes scary St.Kilda saw 40 new restaurants open and a transformation into a new entertainment precint. But he went too far, ingnored the country and started reading Machiavelli.
    Baileau seems like a nice bloke, but not enough charisma- and no one else does in the Libs either- they are a cup of warm tea, which for most Victorians is something they will often pass by in favor of a late, a beer or a can of pop.

  2. I also think that the mess in public transport has little electoral impact because almost nobody uses it.

    ABS reckons that nearly 20% of Melbourne’s adults use PT as a primary means of transportation. It’s not nearly a majority, but it’s a long way from ‘almost nobody’.

    I think it has little impact because (like health in Qld) while voters would dearly love to punish the ALP for their performance, ‘almost nobody’ believes the Libs would do a better job with it.

  3. Agree with you there Martin.

    I think the ALP will stick around a long time yet. There are many more problems then posters here seem to think, but most if not all are ones that the Libs have a bad track record in.

    Its sort of like when many wouldn’t vote ALP anywhere because they were seen to be bad economic managers. Now they have proven that is false, they cn only lose in situations like NSW.

  4. 53

    The problems with public transport (ad other) are probably the main reason that the Green vote has increased since the last election so much.

  5. [The problems with public transport (ad other) are probably the main reason that the Green vote has increased since the last election so much.]

    That’s unusually specific…

    The Green vote has increase in all states and territories since their last elections, presumably with lefty Labor voters increasingly getting fed up with centrist/centre-right Labor.

  6. [Its sort of like when many wouldn’t vote ALP anywhere because they were seen to be bad economic managers. Now they have proven that is false]

    That’s a bit of a stretch.

    I don’t think the ALP are necessarily bad economic managers, but to say that Labor has proven it is false to Australians is a stretch too far.

  7. There is unexamined assumption here that there are such things as ‘state economies’ that state government budgetary policies have an impact on, this is certainly not true. State governments run services they don’t run economies.

  8. Bob, I meant that there was a view that the ALP couldn’t handle the economy, which was the big issue the Libs pushed in Vic and Federally. They have proven that they can handle the economy by how they have behaved by not doing what the Libs said would happen. ie: go straight into debt.

  9. Does anyone know if there is any seasonal component to approval ratings? I.e. do leaders do worse in winter when respondents are grumpier and better in spring as the weather warms up?

  10. I travelled on a refurbished train this morning. It sure was annoying. It’s designed for the sardine crush periods but is frustrating when there are few people on it, as was the case this morning (I was travelling away from the city). There are fewer seats, and many of those that remain have been turned sideways to allow more standing room, so it’s a real privilege if you manage to get one of the very few that face forwards (which I didn’t). They’ve also put a convenient pole between the doors where there was previously nothing for people to hang onto in crush periods.

    But the real PT test comes later this month when the myki ticket system starts. I think that having to touch off to avoid paying extra is going to cause chaos, especially on trams, and anger from those who don’t touch off for one reason or another.

  11. There just seems to be a complete lack of traction in Victoria for the COALition on any issue. They have identified Law and Order as their new focus, it just goes to show how completely lacking they are in imagination.
    Ballieu is not having any impact and whilst they have trotted Ryan out to Police, and he will make a better job at having a go at Cameron, they are just short of cattle.
    If the coalition suffers anything like this type of result in the next election it could be another two terms before they have any chance. Thats starts to look like a 30 year ALP rule interrupted by 7 years of Kennett. WOW.

  12. The Kennet government sacked over 900 police. The ALP have employed an extra few thousand and have rebuilt/refurbished hundreds of police stations. Crime rate statistics have actually improved. What could tthay possibly say they would do better?

  13. bob12234 (50 at 10.29 am on 4/11),

    I did as study of the 1976 election, the one in which the DLP did not contest a number of seats to punish the Liberals for breaking their 1973 promise to reform the Legislative Council. In traditional Labor areas, the DLP’s vote tended to go to the ALP. In more Liberal areas, the DLP’s vote tended to go to the Liberal Party. In any case, I said “many”, not “most”. We may think voters are more ideological than they are. I believe, though I cannot prove it, that a large proportion of those who voted for the DLP’s Frank McManus in 1970 (when he got 19 per cent) went on to vote for the Democrats’ Don Chipp in 1977.

    Martin B (53 at 10.33 pm on 4/11),

    Thank you for those figures. I accept “almost nobody” is an exaggeration, but if the figure were 60 per cent rather than 20 per cent, the government could not afford to let public transport become what it has.

    Earlier this year – and I cannot find the cutting, I am sorry – Ted Baillieu set out three major issues thathe would campaign on. What I noticed was that education was not one of them. I think the government has almost totally neutralised that as an issue on which the Liberals can campaign.

    Nor has Labor finished its reform program in this state. John Brumby has given it a new lease of life. Just today, it announced its plans for school performance reports, and it turns out that they are a sophisticated way of giving parents valid information without allowing the tabloid press and shock jocks to create simplistic league tables. There’s a lot of life left in Victorian Labor.

  14. Well, with the greatest respect the Libs have never moved on from the hatchet that Kennett took to education. The ALP trot out the old, ‘Oh look shook horror, at what the nasty LIBS did when they were in power, it still works, but mainly because the libs lower their heads shuffle uncomfortably and look guilty. Bails, of course, was party president for some of the time, what a fantastic joke the Vic Coalition is. Its almost as if they have stopped functioning as an opposition at all.
    Combine that they now have the dead weight of a Global Warming denying National Party driving around in a dust storm, not being able to see the irony of their position and the death of the Murray Darling.

  15. [I did as study of the 1976 election, the one in which the DLP did not contest a number of seats to punish the Liberals for breaking their 1973 promise to reform the Legislative Council. In traditional Labor areas, the DLP’s vote tended to go to the ALP. In more Liberal areas, the DLP’s vote tended to go to the Liberal Party.]

    It’s pretty baseless reasoning when an election sees a comparatively large 2PP swing, and then use primary swings which are a combination of both major party shift and DLP to major party shift.

  16. I’d have loved to have been a fly on the wall when Barking discovered the first four letters of ‘Coalition’ spelt COAL.

    He must’ve nearly died….

  17. I didn’t discover the COAL in Coalition, another blogger eithre here or at possums place was using it.
    The issues really about the ALP. If Rudd is so serious about the Global Warming Issue as he sounded at the Lowy institue, why is his response so weak.
    Back to the COALition in Vic, at the State conference, ‘Rank and file members were loudly applauded for saying such things as Global Warming could not be influenced by human activity, and that its all a conspiracy to form a world government” Wop Wop Wop. I can only imagine what the MM would do to any Green who came out with such absolute loonny tunes stuff. Were can they go in this state. again reported in the Age the Mulder is being groomed. Absolute light weight.
    GG, next time you see your Mum, maybe you should provide the meal, Still take our socks home do we.!

  18. After talking with a prominent scientist and authority on climate change- the conclusion is that we have or are just about to reach the point of no return in terms of crap pumped into the atmosphere. If we are responsible for climate then we are doomed. Nobody is willing to make any useful desicions except tinker around the edges. After volcanoes power generation produces the most CO2. We have to quickly change to gas and rapidly start making geothermal viable. Wind and solar are a lost cause. Nuclear has too many risks, and the emmissions trading scheme will only make Al Gore a billionaire.

  19. [Only The Green have the answers]

    Pfft, no one party has a monopoly on wisdom. Especially not the coalition, especially not Labor, and especially not the Greens.

  20. Marg- it’s already too late and the Greens proposal are no better. Wind and solar are lost causes, only geothermal has any credibility which no one is bothering with. I took heart this morning to see that in victoria we will have a gas fired power station by 2013- the only thing that will help. Carbon trading= Gore billionaire, thats all.

  21. The Carbon trading ALP/COALlusion dirty oil/Coal is a shame,. What is a furhter disgrace is the continued hinderence of will and intent around non-carbon energy sources. Its the corrupting influence of the lobbying/donations from vested interests that needs to be rooted out of our democratic system.

  22. I went to see QT today. That’s my idea of an exciting afternoon outing. I haven’t been before. The public gallery is tiny, but down on the LA floor and remarkably close to the action compared with Canberra. There are only 10 questions. No real fireworks today. For Brumby’s first Dorothy Dixer the Opposition just had to sit there while Brumby reeled off a long list of Victorian sporting triumphs in 2009, then gave Tiger Woods’s score in today’s first round, then announced that Melbourne had won some award in London for the world’s greatest sporting city. He managed to get “Gold, gold, gold” in his answer.

Comments Page 2 of 2
1 2

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *