Big shock from Newspoll: Labor’s two-party lead has slumped from 59-41 to 52-48, their smallest lead since the last poll prior to the 2007 election. The shift on preferred prime minister is much more modest, Kevin Rudd’s lead slipping from 65-19 to 63-19. It’s apparently also been reported both sides have shifted seven points on the primary vote, which would mean they are level on 41 per cent. More to follow. UPDATE: Graphic here. Rudd has had four points transfer from approve (59 per cent) to disapprove (32 per cent); Turnbull’s approval is steady on 32 per cent and his disapproval is down three to 51 percent.
It’s a very different story from Essential Research, which has Labor’s lead steady at 59-41. Supplementary questions show mixed messages on asylum seekers: one shows support for a tough line and an apparent belief that the Rudd government is delivering, but 55 per cent rate its handling of the issue “not so good/poor” against 36 per cent “excellent/good”. Significantly, a further question shows people do not think the Liberals would do any better.
UPDATE: Newspoll history records six reversals of comparable size. The poll of 6-8 November 1992 saw a 46-54 Labor deficit turn into a 54-46 lead, for what looked to be no readily obvious reason at the time. On 20-22 August 1993, immediately after John Dawkins’ horror post-election budget, the Coalition’s lead went from 51-49 to 60-40. On 23-25 September 1994, Labor went from 57-43 ahead to 51-49 behind in what looked like a correction following two consecutive horror surveys for Alexander Downer. When John Howard took over from him at the end of January 1995, the next survey of 10-12 February saw Labor’s 54-46 lead turn into a 53-47 deficit. The poll immediately after the 1998 election saw the Coalition turn a 53-47 deficit at the last (evidently inaccurate) pre-election poll into a 54-46 lead. Finally, on 28-30 May 2004, Labor under Mark Latham suffered a short-lived slump from 53-47 ahead to 54-46 behind.
Leigh,
Drab clothes + how can we feed the millions?
I’ll give it a miss.
Any intelligent bludging here in the last hour ex Q&A?
[SBY is in big trouble in the current KPK vs the Police fiasco.]
I guess he will be looking for some friends then.
How funny are the cricket commentators!
“You won’t see Ponting do anything outrageous”
– Ponting hits the next ball for 6 😉
Dario,
I Had great expectations of David Dark Victory, much less of Tony (who really shut up at the right times)
Adam i think we should also invest in more surface ships too.
Also i dont understand why we dont get nuclear submarines. It is just stupid to buy desiel electric subs when nuclear subs have a much greater range.
[“You won’t see Ponting do anything outrageous”]
– and then gets bowled trying to smash one down the ground
Dario,
Must have been a pom commentator: their perception of reality is different from ours.
[Must have been a pom commentator: their perception of reality is different from ours]
Nah, a Saffer, Robin Jackman
[Must have been a pom commentator: ]
Or News Ltd
[their perception of reality is different from ours]
[Nah, a Saffer, Robin Jackman]
Come to think of it, I think he did play for England 🙂
Dario
The Africans don’t care if we go bankrupt. Of course they would think our targets were too low.
Perhaps you should take your sensitivity and insight over to Barcelona to assist as our negotiator. 🙂
At 1 for 236 in 39 overs I don’t think he should say a dozen hail Marys.
The Safr’s, they themselves say. have God on their side – sometimes.
[The Africans don’t care if we go bankrupt. Of course they would think our targets were too low.
Was just stating a reality. Why do I need to be sensitive?
scorpio,
Are you willing to stand for the alto office of Q&A moderatorto which I’m willing to nominate you?
Diogenes
The African negotiator is clearly a Liberal plant.
You could be right. His name is Mr Lumumba Di-Aping. Probably a member of the Toorak branch.
100 for Marsh
[You could be right. His name is Mr Lumumba Di-Aping. Probably a member of the Toorak branch.]
I’m sure the moment he bagged Rudd he became a ‘key’ negotiator too 😉
[The Safr’s, they themselves say. have God on their side – sometimes.]
I think he is being shared out too much among the abrahamites.
I think budha has it much easier.
😉
Gus, now the Germans too, have God on their side.
Yay Shaun Marsh!
Dario,
The unfortunate truth (patent pending) is that all nations, all tribes are egoistic, or should that be egotistic? Someone enlighten me.
[Also i dont understand why we dont get nuclear submarines. It is just stupid to buy desiel electric subs when nuclear subs have a much greater range.]
I completely agree. I believe our Collins class subs when first built were the biggest conventionally powered subs ever made; which is probably one reason why we have had so many problems with their engines.
Given our commitment to the ANZUS alliance, we would probably very easily gain access to U.S. nuclear sub technology if we wanted to build nuclear boats. Perhaps not the absolute latest technology, but certainly somewhat older reactor designs.
Of course the latest U.S. nuclear subs won’t ever require refueling during the lifetime of the sub. The only limit on how long they can be on a mission is the morale of the crew.
Another big issue is the performance of the Australian Submarine Corp at Port Adelaide which has a proven track record of failure. If we are going to build 12 subs we should set up a second sub corp in another state and do a series of contracts i.e. let them build 2 each at the start, but then determine who gets future contracts based on the performance building the first installment. If the Sub Corp at Adelaide gets the contract for all 12 then expect delays, stuff ups, and budget blow outs.
A seriously subtle move from the indonesions in the chess game “OV”
According to Lateline, the vessel may not be allowed to remain in Indonesion waters past tomorrow
O Lordie, why didn;t I see that one coming? – all of Krudd’s crap about being infinitely patient- he’s going to look like a schmo it the indon’s pull that trigger
Finns,
If the Germans have God on their side it is NOT because of the melodic quality of their language.
They should learn from their Austrian neighbours: much less gutteral.
Dario
Why do I need to be sensitive?
Fortunately, there is no need around here. 🙂
On the other hand, Mr Di-Aping is sensitive to the needs of the planet, and apparently sees no requirement for anyone to go bankrupt in saving it. Maybe he’s read the UK and our Treasury modelling and the Stern reports and knows GDPs around the world will barely be affected by a proper CPRS:
Mr Di-Aping says it should be 40 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020.
“You have to live to the ambition that saves the world. In Africa’s words, it is 40 minimum,” he said
For a ramshackle, injury hit outfit, they’re doing woefully aren’t they?
[knows GDPs around the world will barely be affected by a proper CPRS]
‘proper’ being the operative word
[For a ramshackle, injury hit outfit, they’re doing woefully aren’t they?]
Well, it’s a batting track. Our bowlers are very thin so we will need a big total.
jv,
You postul(at)e. Some facts, please.
[Mr Di-Aping]
He sounds like he’s from that beautiful island of Mauritius.
White’s having a belter
[O Lordie, why didn;t I see that one coming? – all of Krudd’s crap about being infinitely patient- he’s going to look like a schmo it the indon’s pull that trigger]
Squiggle, can you do any better than your party elders in explaining what *you* would have done differently in this situation? Would you have (a) left them to drown? (b) brought them to Australia? (c) taken some other course of action no-one has thought of yet?
Facing two overs? Come back in ten minutes.
I’m watching cricinfo: way behind the times. Double six? You’re right
Yankees beat the Phillies. Drat.
Q beat Tas. Good.
[I’m watching cricinfo: way behind the times. Double six? You’re right]
The benefits of Foxtel 😉
Ali Moore looking very executive. Time for another episode of Yes, Minister.
vp
Some facts, please.
With all the means at my disposal. Any in particular? How about Chapter 6 of Treasury’s modelling for a start:
The reduction in GNP in 2050 relative to the reference scenario level is around 5.1 per cent in the CPRS -5 scenario and 6.7 per cent in the Garnaut -25 scenario; however, GNP per capita is roughly 1.5 times larger in 2050 than in 2008 (Chart 6.9).
http://www.treasury.gov.au/lowpollutionfuture/report/html/06_Chapter6.asp
[Squiggle, can you do any better than your party elders in explaining what *you* would have done differently in this situation?]
Like on most other issues, the Liberals have absolutely nothing constructive to say, so they are are just criticising what the Government has done.
Unfortunately on this particular issue just diverting attention to the government is actually a viable short term strategy because the problem is actually impossible to solve.
However I was pleased to see on Q&A that many in the audience saw through Hockey’s inability to propose an alternate policy and just started laughing at his constant dodges.
On this issue the federal Liberals have stayed on message with their “we’re not the government” line. However the fact Colin Barnett thinks they should be taken to Christmas Island demonstrates that the Liberals are probably internally divided, which is another reason why they can’t enunciate an actual alternative policy, because it will just further highlight their division.
OK. 5 overs to go – I’ll reload: again, again and again.
William, didn’t you ban “Krudd” as a name here?
[OK. 5 overs to go – I’ll reload: again, again and again.]
You’re only an over behind I think. Another good over for White coming up 😉
Sorry, Joe is a light weight
Well you’re at it William could you also ban “Sloppy”? These names truly aren’t necessary IMHO.
Hussey piling it on now
jv,
I plead overload, courtesy of some rather quaffable white wine. I shall revisit mañana
And “Turnbull”. I find that very offensive.
—
That’s my last joke for a while, I’m off to spend a few days somewhere where the expression “online” is unknown – my mother’s house. Normal hackery will be resumed next Thursday.
And here is why I reckon the Libs won’t be gaining much ground on the AS issue – they have no policy or opinion on what they would do, so it is just ‘floating’ around.
Have a good weekend Pseph