Newspoll: 52-48

Big shock from Newspoll: Labor’s two-party lead has slumped from 59-41 to 52-48, their smallest lead since the last poll prior to the 2007 election. The shift on preferred prime minister is much more modest, Kevin Rudd’s lead slipping from 65-19 to 63-19. It’s apparently also been reported both sides have shifted seven points on the primary vote, which would mean they are level on 41 per cent. More to follow. UPDATE: Graphic here. Rudd has had four points transfer from approve (59 per cent) to disapprove (32 per cent); Turnbull’s approval is steady on 32 per cent and his disapproval is down three to 51 percent.

It’s a very different story from Essential Research, which has Labor’s lead steady at 59-41. Supplementary questions show mixed messages on asylum seekers: one shows support for a tough line and an apparent belief that the Rudd government is delivering, but 55 per cent rate its handling of the issue “not so good/poor” against 36 per cent “excellent/good”. Significantly, a further question shows people do not think the Liberals would do any better.

UPDATE: Newspoll history records six reversals of comparable size. The poll of 6-8 November 1992 saw a 46-54 Labor deficit turn into a 54-46 lead, for what looked to be no readily obvious reason at the time. On 20-22 August 1993, immediately after John Dawkins’ horror post-election budget, the Coalition’s lead went from 51-49 to 60-40. On 23-25 September 1994, Labor went from 57-43 ahead to 51-49 behind in what looked like a correction following two consecutive horror surveys for Alexander Downer. When John Howard took over from him at the end of January 1995, the next survey of 10-12 February saw Labor’s 54-46 lead turn into a 53-47 deficit. The poll immediately after the 1998 election saw the Coalition turn a 53-47 deficit at the last (evidently inaccurate) pre-election poll into a 54-46 lead. Finally, on 28-30 May 2004, Labor under Mark Latham suffered a short-lived slump from 53-47 ahead to 54-46 behind.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,123 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48”

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  2. Finns

    Psephos’ solution is a lot better than yours. You’d be lucky to keep a fleet of rubber duckies out of Australia with our Collins Subs, proudly built in SA.

  3. [Diog, What impasse? Herr Doktor wants his ships to fire on them and i want my submarines to torpedoe them. Methinks my solution is more effective and deadly and will scare the shits of the refoos more. Tough and not very humane but effective.]

    And as someone said a while ago, give the Airforce first go at them with a few bombs and then let the Navy have a go. Any that get past that will give the Army a bit of artillery practice” 😉

  7. [Psephos’ solution is a lot better than yours. You’d be lucky to keep a fleet of rubber duckies out of Australia with our Collins Subs, proudly built in SA.]

    Diog, the comrades in beijing got some some 2nd el cheapo navy surplus submarines but as reliable as Rudd’s Great wall Ute 👿

  14. You were discussing Lovelock before. You know, I’m sure, that his thesis is that we are already at the tipping point for sudden and catastrophic climate change. I don’t think he’s right, but he might be. If he is, this could become a real issue much sooner than we think. Finns apparently thinks it’s funny, but he knows Indonesia well enough to know how precarious its economy is and how disastrous a sudden crop failure, for example, would be. It wouldn’t take much to turn our north coast into a battlefield in a global war of rich v poor.

    (I do get a bit annoyed when I’m accused as a Labor hack of not taking climate change seriously, and then when I do discuss its serious implications all I get is silly jokes.)

  19. [Holy Skyland! The Liberals would hit the front!]

    It will really be interesting to see the reactions of some on here when Labor hits 50-50, and 49-51.

  22. Herr Doktor, you should be grateful that the Indonesians manage to keep their country together in one piece else Australia is FARQ. Not to mention keeping Mt. Tamboro and Anak Krakatau in checked.

  23. Joe Hockey is an idiot, he can’t even say what the Liberals would do if they were in government.

    Tony Jones and David Marr demonstrated how ridiculously idiotic the Liberal non-position is.

  30. [It will really be interesting to see the reactions of some on here when Labor hits 50-50, and 49-51.]

    Give it a break, Bob. The bait’s gone off!

  31. [

    Herr Doktor, you should be grateful that the Indonesians manage to keep their country together in one piece else Australia is FARQ.]

    Finns

    I think that’s the point he’s making. If they start bailing, we’re going to have a “considerable challenge”.

    Psephos

    You are correct about Lovelock. His predictions are apocalyptic. He’s been right more often than he’s been wRONg too, which is a bit of a concern.

  43. Finns

    [SBY is in big trouble in the current KPK vs the Police fiasco. They are saying now in Indonesia that he is weak as piss.]

    I’ve even heard it said that he doesn’t seem to have much pull in his own country. 😉

  45. Hmmmm. Maybe our proposed CPRS targets should be stiffened up a bit already, never mind after Copenhagen? And who says what we do has no influence on key world players?:

    [“Rudd singled out in African climate boycott

    A key African negotiator named Kevin Rudd, along with British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, in his criticisms, saying the greenhouse gas reduction targets set by developed nations are too low.

    It is a blow to those who are hoping for an international climate change agreement in the Danish capital.]

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