Big shock from Newspoll: Labor’s two-party lead has slumped from 59-41 to 52-48, their smallest lead since the last poll prior to the 2007 election. The shift on preferred prime minister is much more modest, Kevin Rudd’s lead slipping from 65-19 to 63-19. It’s apparently also been reported both sides have shifted seven points on the primary vote, which would mean they are level on 41 per cent. More to follow. UPDATE: Graphic here. Rudd has had four points transfer from approve (59 per cent) to disapprove (32 per cent); Turnbull’s approval is steady on 32 per cent and his disapproval is down three to 51 percent.
It’s a very different story from Essential Research, which has Labor’s lead steady at 59-41. Supplementary questions show mixed messages on asylum seekers: one shows support for a tough line and an apparent belief that the Rudd government is delivering, but 55 per cent rate its handling of the issue “not so good/poor” against 36 per cent “excellent/good”. Significantly, a further question shows people do not think the Liberals would do any better.
UPDATE: Newspoll history records six reversals of comparable size. The poll of 6-8 November 1992 saw a 46-54 Labor deficit turn into a 54-46 lead, for what looked to be no readily obvious reason at the time. On 20-22 August 1993, immediately after John Dawkins’ horror post-election budget, the Coalition’s lead went from 51-49 to 60-40. On 23-25 September 1994, Labor went from 57-43 ahead to 51-49 behind in what looked like a correction following two consecutive horror surveys for Alexander Downer. When John Howard took over from him at the end of January 1995, the next survey of 10-12 February saw Labor’s 54-46 lead turn into a 53-47 deficit. The poll immediately after the 1998 election saw the Coalition turn a 53-47 deficit at the last (evidently inaccurate) pre-election poll into a 54-46 lead. Finally, on 28-30 May 2004, Labor under Mark Latham suffered a short-lived slump from 53-47 ahead to 54-46 behind.
vp
“I plead overload, courtesy of some rather quaffable white wine.
Perfectly understandable – except you should eschew that white acid for some McLaren Vale red. 🙂
[And here is why I reckon the Libs won’t be gaining much ground on the AS issue – they have no policy or opinion on what they would do, so it is just ‘floating’ around.]
And if the poll bounces back to the Government it will take a huge wind out of the sails (pardon the nautical pun) as well
TP,
Fifty percent of the population has below average intelligence (we’ll have to do something about that!). Some people react to whistles.
[And here is why I reckon the Libs won’t be gaining much ground on the AS issue – they have no policy or opinion on what they would do, so it is just ‘floating’ around.]
Yeah, but it is possible that they will gain a few points just by saying whatever the government is doing is wrong.
Sadly not all voters will realise that the opposition hasn’t actually offered anything different.
Pseph,
I really hadn’t seen this move by Indonesia coming, I’m still thinking through the implications…
The problem with scenario testing via blog responses is that there is little chance to clarify points of importance quickly….so If I take your question literally, I point out that Malcolm has publicly made statements that he would not have ‘unpicked’ the previous government’s approach.
My non-professional interpretation is that this would have meant Indonesia would not have been part of this issue. The seekers would have been escorted to Austrtalian turf in the first instance. This is not to say there would have been no stink for the LNP, but at least LNP and ALP would be working through this sh!! as one bunch of skippies talking to another bunch of skippies. No bahasa indonesia necessary, know what I mean?
[TP,
Fifty percent of the population has below average intelligence (we’ll have to do something about that!). Some people react to whistles.]
Even so-called “Intelligent” people also respond to those ces as well. 🙁
[Perfectly understandable – except you should eschew that white acid for some McLaren Vale red.]
Marinated beef rump coming up on Saturday. A good SA red will be disembowelled
Well the whistle the Libs are using just raise concern, but haven’t comforted anyone. Is maybe why the ER poll has people thinking the Libs would do worse 21/26.
I ban all sorts of things, Gary. Doesn’t seem to do much good.
I thought all the Australian cricketers in India were supposed to be one-leg warriors.
Now they’re setting batting records.
Guilty
White gets a half century and Australia posts 350. Will it be enough? Time for bed.
Actually for an issue that is supposed to have inflamed and polarised people to bring about a huge swing…their opinion on who would handle the issue better is very limp and doesn’t indicate great passions on either side of politics.
Do you think the libs would do better re AS issue.
Better 21%
Worse 26%
Much the Same 40%
Don’t Know 13%
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/05/2734643.htm
[Howard revisits his victory over the republic]
Now i am going to have nightmares
Jakarta Post’s editorial on the KPK Vs The Police case:
[Justice for sale – The Jakarta Post | Thu, 11/05/2009 9:10 AM | Opinion
The tape recordings played publicly by the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) Tuesday at the order of the Constitutional Court sent a chilling shudder through the spine.
This is so despite public knowledge of the sickening state of our judiciary.
Shame on our nation, shame on our country.
If the recordings prove to be authentic, they show how rotten some of our top leaders, particularly those at the National Police (Polri) and the Attorney General’s Office (AGO) actually are. Their abuse of power, if it turns out to be true, is an insult to all law-abiding officials.
Credit should go to the Constitutional Court head, Mahfud MD, who decided to open the case for the public, and to the people who have exerted strong pressure to reveal the recordings, that proved to contain a scheme to undermine the KPK. Democracy has made what was unthinkable a decade ago possible.
The playing of the tape recordings has defused the tension arising from the nationwide pressure to uncover what they, the public, saw as an attempt by the Polri and the AGO to attack the KPK.]
http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2009/11/05/justice-sale.html
It’s time the people of Indonesia rise up and say “enough is enough”. but they wont, because everyone is a thief in Indonesia.
[The difficulty with education policy and the Labor party is that true reform means upsetting teachers. The teaching profession is the backbone of the Labor party in many ways, especially at State level. Unions carry a lot of oomph when it comes to the inner workings of the party but when you want someone to hand out how to vote cards, then it’s chalkies you’re relying on.]
Yes, “true reform” does mean upsetting teachers in the sense that Howard’s “true reform” of our industrial relations system meant “upsetting” most workers. Genuine improvement of educational delivery does not mean attempting to divide and conquer teachers with absurd merit pay schemes and casualisation, turning Principals and P & C’s into pseudo-corporate C.E.O. and Boards of Directors, publishing league tables or adopting the Americans’ egregious obsession with testing the hell out of kids at the expense of precious time needed for developing critical learning and thinking skills.
The highly successful Finland education system keeps it simple: significantly increase your teachers’ classroom resources and opportunities for staff development and then allow your professionals to do their job with minimal interference.
Just exactly why both the NSW and Federal Labor governments are so keen to alienate this important segment of their traditional support base in order to implement changes which are, at core, Coalition fantasies is a phenomenon which many other PB’ers are better equipped to explain than I am.
By the way, Green Party supporters in PB should feel proud that its NSW Upper House members successfully generated expressions of support for full-time TAFE teachers in their long-running battle for survival with the Labor Government. Of course, the Labor Party can well afford to alienate yet another chunk of the electorate given Labor’s brilliant record, stability of leadership and historic level of popularity.
1909
The trappings of power.
scorpio,
[Are you willing to stand for the alto office of Q&A moderatorto which I’m willing to nominate you?]
Sorry, VP. Been away from the keyboard watching QANDA so I can pick up a few pointers.
Yeah, but only if i can have those three “rappers” on every week! Oh and Maxine!!!
Gusface,
Do you remember how master debater Malcolm handled that? No wonder he does not want to revist the repub rebate.
[If I take your question literally, I point out that Malcolm has publicly made statements that he would not have ‘unpicked’ the previous government’s approach.]
What on Earth does Turnbull mean by that?
When the Government legislated to abolish Temporary Protection Visas, the Liberals supported it, they didn’t even call for a division so the bill passed on the voices.
When the government legislated to scrap fees for detention, the bill passed the House and Senate with the support of some Liberals. In fact it wouldn’t be law without the support of Senator Troeth.
Like on nearly everything else, the Liberals don’t have an immigration policy.
[My non-professional interpretation is that this would have meant Indonesia would not have been part of this issue.]
What? So does that mean take them to Christmas Island, i.e. Australia now takes people both from Australian waters and International waters to Christmas Island?
Wouldn’t that just tell people smuggler’s that they only need to get their human cargo into international waters now?
[The seekers would have been escorted to Austrtalian turf in the first instance.]
Christmas Island doesn’t count as part of Australia. It was excised from the migration zone by the parliament in 2001.
scorpio,
I can offer you open slather: you select the victims, you select their punishment and you selcet their method of being totally oblietrate.
[The Safr’s, they themselves say. have God on their side – sometimes.
I think he is being shared out too much among the abrahamites.]
Joe Hockey has dog on his side. He also thinks the Christians, Jews and Moslems each have a different dog.
Strange considering his family origins in the area from where the three religions originate!
VP,
[I can offer you open slather: you select the victims, you select their punishment and you selcet their method of being totally oblietrate.]
How could one refuse such a generous offer! 😉
Frgive ne my typos as I forgive the typos done unto me.
* off to dream of maxine and her whip *
[Wouldn’t that just tell people smuggler’s that they only need to get their human cargo into international waters now?]
All they would need to do is get on a boat. Any boat. A rowboat. A blowup one from K-Mart. One of those blow up dolls would be good.
Certainly attract attention of homesick Aussie sailors.
scorpio,
Joe is, just, strange.
I hope for his sake he never gets to be leader of the Opposers: the Labor front bench would tear him to bits.
Joe does just not have the antennae for the job.
Quite possibly the best Q&A for the year! Gee i cannot stand David Marr! he is jsut outright narrow minded and negative! he is the Lefts verson of Pies Akermann!
VP,
Have you noticed how “all” the Liberal pannelists on Qanda since the second episode after the Rudd one, they get all wound up and agressive/defensive and try to win a point or argument through an almost bullying, shouting approach.
Love it when you get people like Maxine, Albo, Smithy, Swannie, Emmerson etc on there. Calm, measured and quietly spoken with intent but unfortunately, cut off by Jones just at the point where their argument is starting to really take some skin off the Libs!
That’s the part that I really hate!
Just catching up on “Live at the Basement” If you like back beat jazz this for you.
mexican
I second that. Disagree about David: have you read “Dark Victory?”
VP! No i have not read Dark Victory, apart from the excerps printed in the press.
This Grattan article is worth a read. She has a go at Rudd but also sees the realities of this Newspoll and and the problems the coalition face in the near future.
http://www.theage.com.au/opinion/politics/coalition-straining-apart-and-not-only-on-emissions-trading-20091105-i03e.html
xcorpio,
If you had nowhere to go would you not be defensive.
Take different people:
Tony Abbott: he is just plain disgusting.
Joe Hockey. He tries to be avuncular. He is not objectionagle; he is just contradicting himself all the time and ends up being a pain in the arse.
Chistopher Pyne: he is just like he is in parliament. How does his wife put up with his indignations and whines. I bet ge is no different at home.
Julie Bishop: so out of her depth. Her advisors should tell her to shut up (MT did one QT)
mexicanbeemer.
It is a good read.
You’ll enjoy the good writing: you’ll not enjoy SIEVX and other Howard playthings.
[A seriously subtle move from the indonesions in the chess game “OV”
According to Lateline, the vessel may not be allowed to remain in Indonesion waters past tomorrow
O Lordie, why didn;t I see that one coming? – all of Krudd’s crap about being infinitely patient- he’s going to look like a schmo it the indon’s pull that trigger]
Mr Squiggle, for all you know it may be even a subtle, cunning move by Kevvie. On the quiet, get the Indon’s to pretend that they are calling in on the deadline so that Rudd can claim that he had no alternative but to have the 76 ASers taken to Christmas Island.
I reckon Rudd, as a diabolically, clever, political operator, has outflanked Turnbull on this and will come out of it smelling of roses having pleased both the Left, Right and the Centre maintaining the faith they had in him all the time to come up trumps!
Smart man, that Rudd! Damn clever if you ask me! 😉
That jazz could be Nutbush City but its English. So good!
scorpio,
There is zero risk Kevin Rudd will be outsmarted: he has the smarts and he has a big organization on his hip.
It’s Alabama 3 at the Basement. They’re good.
[I completely agree. I believe our Collins class subs when first built were the biggest conventionally powered subs ever made; which is probably one reason why we have had so many problems with their engines.]
I don’t think that is right. I remember a while back researching Japanese World War 11 Submarines and some of them were huge.
Some of them were so big, they carried seaplanes inside the hulls and the one that released the midget subs outside Sydney Harbour carried three or four midget subs and they weren’t exactly small either.
Went to the Basement in the sixties for Galapagos Duck. Still great.
Their SBS has trotted out Howie and “We had a policy that worked” crap.
Probably we should look towards the Japanese to build our new subs. They really knew how to build them. Check this one out. 400 feet long.
[The Sen Toku I-400-class (????????) submarines of the Imperial Japanese Navy were the largest submarines of World War II, and remained the largest ever built prior to the development of nuclear ballistic missile submarines in the 1960s. They were submarine aircraft carriers able to carry three Aichi M6A Seiran aircraft underwater to their destinations.]
[Each submarine had four 3,000 horsepower (2.2 MW) engines and carried enough fuel to go around the world one-and-a-half times—more than enough to reach the United States traveling east or west. They displaced 6,500 tons and were over 400 feet (120 m) long, three times the size of the typical submarines of the time. They had a figure-eight hull shape affording additional strength to handle the on-deck hangar for housing the three aircraft. They also had four anti-aircraft guns, a large deck gun, and eight torpedo tubes.
The Aichi M6A Seiran
They were able to carry three Aichi M6A Seiran aircraft, each carrying an 800 kilogram (1,764 lb) bomb 650 miles (1000 km) at 295 miles per hour (474 km/h). The existence of the Seiran was unknown to Allied intelligence. The wings of the Seiran folded back, the horizontal stabilizers folded down, and the top of the vertical stabilizer folded over so the overall forward profile of the aircraft was within the diameter of its propeller. When prepared for flight, they had a wing span of 40 feet (12 m) and a length of 38 feet (11.6 m). A crew of four could prepare and get all three airborne in 45 minutes. The planes were launched from a 120-foot (37-m) catapult on the deck of the giant submarine.]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I-400_class_submarine
Gusface
[* off to dream of maxine and her whip *]
Ha! Bet you ridden by that Ho Jockey instead!!!
Collins Class Submarine. About half the size of the Japanese Sen Toku I-400-class !
[Type: Diesel-electric submarine
Displacement: 3,051 tonnes (surfaced)
3,353 tonnes (submerged)
Length: 77.42 metres (254.0 ft) ]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collins_class_submarine
Scorpio @ 1946
[Collins Class Submarine. About half the size of the Japanese Sen Toku I-400-class !]
The French also built a monster sub called the Surcouf before the war broke out.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/French_submarine_Surcouf_(N_N_3)
She was captured by the British after the fall of France, and recommissioned into the Free French Navy. Seems to have spent most of her time escorting merchant ships in the Atlantic (a bit like using a fox to guard the sheep!), before sinking in strange circumstances in 1942 (including rumours that she defected to the Vichy Navy and was sunk by the allies).
I don’t think WWII and modern subs can readily be compared though 🙂 – a WWII sub spent 99% of its time on the surface, and if you were being really unfair, you could probably argue they were just a heavily modified surface ship with a fancy party trick, whereas a modern sub probably spends 99% of its time underwater.
A German long range type IX U-boat could comfortably make it all the way to Australia at a speed of about 17 knots without refueling (and indeed there was a small wolfpack called ‘Monsun’ located in the Indian ocean, with bases in Penang, Jakarta and Sebang), but it would have to travel on the surface to do so. Travelling underwater, they could do about 7 knots in emergencies, but rather noisily. Top speed while silent was about 2-3 knots, and limited to a few hours. Most U-boats (and I assume other submarine forces adopted similar tactics) engaged their targets while on the surface, and only submerged to slip away *if* detected.
The first ‘true’ submarine was probably the German type XXI electroboat. About 100 were assembled, but only 4 were seaworthy when the war ended. The Soviets built a couple of dozen out of partially assembled hulls after the war, and based some of their early subs on the design.
My theory on Della Bosca in NSW staging the whole “affair” thing to get a bit of Bob Hawke-style larrikan cache and come back stronger has been proved correct. Although I thought he would wait until the next election cycle or go Federal (that could still play out):
[“Not delusional – Della Bosca stakes his leadership claim
JOHN DELLA BOSCA, the MP being described as ”delusional” by colleagues, believes he can still be premier.
Two months after resigning as a minister over an extramarital affair, Mr Della Bosca says he should be given another chance at public life.”]
Things are now so bad in the NSW govt. that an aspirant for Premier needs is to line up at the revolving door with proof he’s free of mental illness.
I hope he still has his certificate. 🙂
http://www.smh.com.au/national/not-delusional–della-bosca-stakes-his-leadership-claim-20091105-i093.html
1948 – “…thatall an aspirant for Premier needs…”
That was the best ODI EVER!
[And the match? India lost, now trail Australia 2-3 – Sachin Tendulkar has proved that one-day cricket is not dead.
On Thursday, he took India breathtakingly close to what would have been their biggest ever win in one-day international (ODI) history. His 175 off 141 balls under lights, a nerveless masterclass on the day he got to 17,000 runs, was record-breaking, but that statistic was just a number. What was far more important was the way he anchored India in their biggest ever chase. ]
http://www.hindustantimes.com/News-Feed/cricketnews/And-the-match-India-lost-now-trail-Australia-2-3/Article1-473204.aspx