Roy Morgan has simultaneously unloaded two sets of polling figures, as it does from time to time. The regular fortnightly face-to-face poll, conducted over the previous two weekends from a sample of 1684, has Labor’s lead nudging up to 60-40 compared with 59.5-40.5 at the previous such poll. Both major parties are down 1.5 per cent on the primary vote – Labor to 49.5 per cent, the Coalition to 34 per cent – while the Greens are up from 7.5 per cent to 9 per cent. There is also a phone poll of 695 respondents conducted mid-week, which finds a slight majority favouring “maintaining a balanced budget” over vaguely defined alternative economic objectives. The poll has Labor’s lead on voting intention at 58-42 on two-party preferred and 46.5-37 on the primary vote. The Greens are on 10.5 per cent.
Plenty happening on the electoral front, not least the finalisation of the federal redistribution for Queensland. This offers a few surprises, and may be a rare occasion where a major party’s submission has actually had an effect. Two changes in particular were broadly in line with the wishes of the Liberal National Party, which marshalled a considerable weight of media commentary to argue that the Coalition had been hard done by. As always, Antony Green has crunched the numbers: all estimated margins quoted herein are his.
• Most interestingly, the changes to Dickson that sent Peter Dutton scurrying for refuge have been partly reversed. As the LNP submission requested, the electorate has recovered the rural area along Dayboro Road and Woodford Road that it was set to lose to Longman. However, only a small concession was made to the LNP’s request that the troublesome Kallangur area be kept out of the electorate. The electoral impact is accordingly slight, clipping the notional Labor margin from 1.3 per cent to 1.0 per cent. Peter Dutton is nonetheless sufficiently encouraged that he’s indicating he might yet stand and fight – or less charitably, he’s found a pretext to get out of the corner he had backed himself into. Labor has received a corresponding boost in its marginal seat of Longman, where Jon Sullivan’s margin has been cut from 3.6 per cent at the election to 1.7 per cent, instead of the originally proposed 1.4 per cent.
• Major changes to Petrie and Wayne Swan’s seat of Lilley have largely been reversed. It had been proposed to eliminate Petrie’s southern dog-leg by adding coastal areas from Shorncliffe and Deagon north to Brighton from Lilley, which would be compensated with Petrie’s southern leg of suburbs from Carseldine south to Stafford Heights. The revised boundaries have eliminated the former transfer and limited the latter to south of Bridgeman Downs. Where the original proposal gave Labor equally comfortable margins in both, the revision gives Wayne Swan 8.8 per cent while reducing Yvette D’Ath to an uncomfortable 4.2 per cent. Retaining Shorncliffe, Deagon and Brighton in Lilley had been advocated in the LNP submission. Almost-local observer Possum concurs, saying the revised boundaries better serve local communities of interest.
• South of Brisbane and inland of the Gold Coast, changes have been made to the boundary between Forde and the new electorate of Wright, with a view to consolidating the rural identity of the latter. Forde gains suburban Boronia Heights and loses an area of hinterland further south, extending from suburban Logan Village to rural Jimboomba. Labor’s margin in Forde has increased from 2.4 per cent to 3.4 per cent, and the Coalition’s in Wright is up from 3.8 per cent to 4.8 per cent.
• Little remains of a proposed northward shift of the boundary between Kennedy and Leichhardt from the Mitchell River to the limits of Tablelands Regional council. Kennedy will now only gain an area around Mount Molloy, 150 kilometres north-west of Cairns. Its boundary with Dawson has also been tidied through the expansion of a transfer from Dawson south of Townsville, aligning it with the Burdekin River. None of the three seats’ margins has changed.
• Moreton gains a park and golf course from Oxley in the west and loses part of Underwood to Rankin in the south-east, with negligible impact on their margins.
• Maranoa has gained the area around Wandoan from Flynn, making the boundary conform with Western Downs Regional Council. This boosts Labor’s margin in Flynn from 2.0 per cent to 2.3 per cent, compared with 0.2 per cent at the election.
• Three minor adjustments have been made to the boundary between the safe Liberal Sunshine Coast seats of Fisher and Fairfax, allowing the entirety of Montville to remain in Fisher.
• Ryan has taken a sliver of inner city Toowong from Brisbane.
Other news:
• The Financial Review’s Mark Skulley reported on Wednesday that the federal government was moving quickly to get its electoral reform package into shape. Labor is said to be offering a deal: if the Liberals drop their opposition to slashing the threshold for public disclosure of donations (which the Coalition and Steve Fielding voted down in March), the government will include union affiliation fees in a ban on donations from corporations, third parties and associated entities. Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald says the New South Wales branch of the ALP alone receives $1.3 million in revenue a year from the fees, which unions must pay to send delegates to party conferences. According to Skulley, many union leaders fear a Rudd plot to “Blairise” the party by weakening union ties, with Coorey naming the ACTU and Victorian unions as “most hostile”. It is further reported that the parties propose to cover the foregone revenue by hiking the rate of public funding. VexNews “understands” that an increase from $2.24 per vote to $10 is on the cards, potentially increasing the total payout from $49 million to $200 million. The site says Westpac currently has a formal claim over Labor’s public funding payout after the next election, as the party is currently $8 million in debt. The Liberals are said to be keen because they’re having understandable trouble raising funds at the moment. A further amendment proposes to restrict political advertising by third parties. As well as being stimulating politically, some of these moves might be difficult constitutionally.
• A proposed referendum on reform to the South Australian Legislative Council has been voted down in said chamber. The referendum would have been an all-or-nothing vote to change terms from a staggered eight years to an unstaggered four, reduce its membership from 22 to 16, allow a deliberative rather than a casting vote for the President and establish a double dissolution mechanism to resolve deadlocks. Another bill amending the Electoral Act has been passed, although it will not take effect until after the March election. A number of its measures bring the state act into line with the Commonwealth Electoral Act: party names like “Liberals for Forests” have been banned, provisions have been made for enrolment of homeless voters, and MPs will be able to access constituents’ dates of birth on the electoral roll (brace yourselves for presumptuous birthday greetings in the mail). The number of members required of a registered party has been increased from 150 to 200: if you’re wondering why they bothered, the idea was to hike it to 500 to make life difficult for the putative Save the Royal Adelaide Hospital party, but the government agreed to a half-measure that wouldn’t threaten the Nationals. Misleading advertising has also been introduced as grounds for declaring a result void if on the balance of probabilities it affected the result. The Council voted down attempts to ban “corflute” advertising on road sides and overturn the state’s unique requirement that how-to-vote cards be displayed in each polling compartment.
• Deborah Morris of the Hastings Leader reports Helen Constas, chief executive of the Peninsula Community Legal Centre, has been preselected as Labor’s candidate for the south-eastern Melbourne federal seat of Dunkley, where Liberal member Bruce Billson’s margin was cut from 9.3 per cent to 4.0 per cent at the 2007 election. Constas was said to have had “a convincing win in the local ballot”. UPDATE: Andrew Crook of Crikey details Constas’s preselection as a win for the left born of disunity between the Bill Shorten and Stephen Conroy forces of the Right; Right faction sources respond at VexNews.
• The ABC reports that Nationals members in the state electorate of Dubbo have voted not to abandon their preselection privileges by being the guinea pig in the state party’s proposed open primary experiment. There is reportedly a more welcoming mood in Port Macquarie, which like Dubbo is a former Nationals seat that has now had consecutive independent members.
Gary, Kev’s been on a plane today so Insiders’ guests might come up with another rude Rudd upsetting hostie type story for next sunday.
[If he had not been so far sighted with the Vietnamese boat people, we would not have enjoyed the beautiful Pho beef noodle soup and the rice paper wrap springrolls.]
Did I spy lychees in that counter lunch you posted?
Gus, dont ask. you dont want know what else in that package. i thought the Chinese and Japanese were bad, but the Koreans are even worse.
Grog #732 – I agree, although on occassions like this, I prefer to repeat Graham kennedy’s crow call with a ‘ph’ instead of a bold and unequivocal ‘F’ to get past the pollbludger censorship squad, as follows:
‘PHHHHHarrrrrkkkk!’ – has the polling really moved in favour of Rudd over the last week?? – there is a real lesson in this for The Australian’s editors
[‘PHHHHHarrrrrkkkk!’ – has the polling really moved in favour of Rudd over the last week?? – there is a real lesson in this for The Australian’s editors]
Probably not, a 1% change means most likely it just stayed the same.
Still, anything in the high 50s is quite astonishing for a Newspoll. I think the reason can be found in the Essential Research published today, in all the questions about the economy the government has clear leads. And most think the government’s line on stimulus is right.
Greg Hunt and Green Christine on LL.
[Grog #732 – I agree, although on occassions like this, I prefer to repeat Graham kennedy’s crow call ]
I was actually thinking of him when I typed it!
Looks like the Libs might give Dutton a bit of extra time to sort his future out.
[It’s looking increasingly likely Mr Dutton will renominate for Dickson but the issue may be another hiccup for Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull, who has urged the state organisation to find an appropriate seat for the frontbencher.
Mr Dutton – seen as a potential future leader of the Liberal Party – refused to comment on Monday about his intentions for his political future.
He indicated he would make a statement on Tuesday.
LNP nominations for the Dickson pre-selection, as well as 17 other seats not held by the party, were due to close on Tuesday but the state organisation indicated it may be extend the deadline.]
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/dutton-may-get-time-to-decide-future-20091019-h4vg.html
[ Grog #732 – I agree, although on occassions like this, I prefer to repeat Graham kennedy’s crow call
I was actually thinking of him when I typed it!]
Speaking of Kennedy, according toa biography on him by Mike McColl-Jones – Kennedy campaigned for GTV9 Boss Colin Bednell when he ran for the Libs in 1969.
[A Liberal senator wants to know if Prime Minister Kevin Rudd needs to attend an anger management course.]
This must be plan B incase the dog whistling didn’t work, to dent Rudd’s popularity 😉
http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-national/liberal-senator-queries-pms-temperament-20091019-h4nz.html
Christine Milne v Greg Hunt on lateline. LOL I was cheering for Greg Hunt!
Wow, the Liberals and their media mates won’t be happy, it seems beating the boat people drum doesn’t work for the conservatives in quite the way it did in 2001!
The Australian people trust Rudd, and not that jumped up twit from Vaucluse.
marky,
If you are still lurking
[Back in the 1970s, President Jimmy Carter attempted to level the playing field by creating incentives and minimal subsidies to jump-start clean fuels in the marketplace. But then Ronald Reagan took office and ordered the solar panels that Carter had installed on the White House roof torn off. He rolled back fuel standards for automobiles, killed federal incentives that had given America a commanding lead in wind and solar power, and doubled our oil imports. Reagan’s efforts fueled the current oil addiction that has us acting like a crack-house junkie rolling old ladies for drug money. Our jones for petrodrugs has not only superheated the planet, it has embroiled us in the Mesopotamian quagmire and made America a pariah among civilized nations, damaging the cause of democracy across the globe.]
[King Coal and the oil barons like to pretend that their industries dominate the energy sector because their products are cheaper and more efficient than alternative fuels, giving them a competitive advantage in the free market. This is a myth. The dominance of fossil fuels is the direct result of corporate welfare and crony capitalism that would make a Nigerian dictator balk. Direct federal subsidies to Big Oil – everything from loan guarantees and research support to outright tax breaks and waived royalty fees – amount to as much as $17 billion a year. That taxpayer money distorts the marketplace, artificially lowering the price of gasoline and making it difficult for other fuels to compete. Little wonder that the oil industry was able to report profits of more than $137 billion last year. ]
http://www.robertfkennedyjr.com/articles/2007_june_18.html
This article is from robert kenndy jr, who is one of the keynote speakers addressing the solar power intl conference.
http://www.solarpowerinternational.com/
Vera: I’m sure the good people of Dickson are very “grateful” that their sometimes MP was desperately looking for a safer seat. Hopefully Labor preselects a decent candidate, because Dutton losing is one thing I look forward to on Election Night 2010 LOL
[Wow, the Liberals and their media mates won’t be happy, it seems beating the boat people drum doesn’t work for the conservatives in quite the way it did in 2001!
The Australian people trust Rudd, and not that jumped up twit from Vaucluse.]
I wonder how Ch 9’s Dog Whistle re welfare went down – pity it was too late for Newspoll 🙂
Evan 14, Would be nice if their future leader loses his seat just like their past leader did. 🙂
[I wonder how Ch 9’s Dog Whistle re welfare went down – pity it was too late for Newspoll]
Nine promoted this heavily over the weekend, yet I suspect that more still watched Seven News, like usual! Nine were all set to merge their Canberra bureau with Sky, until Laurie Oakes kicked up a stink and they subsequently canned the idea.
Canadian media take on their recent boat people. Most of the stories not at all prominent.
[In Vancouver, dozens of boat migrants await their fate]
[Men from seized ship to be scrutinized in Vancouver
Two busloads of young migrant men — thought to be from Sri Lanka
]
[Human smuggling suspected as ship seized off B.C. with 76 aboard]
[‘Irregular’ migrants to be scrutinized in Vancouver]
[Boat people seized off Vancouver Island now in Vancouver jail
Seventy-six men suspected of illegally entering Canada will be held in Vancouver to determine if they have refugee claims, says the Canadian Border Services Agency.]
[Tamil Canadians to offer seized migrants legal help
The Canadian Tamil Congress said Sunday its lawyers will represent dozens of illegal migrants arrested on a mystery ship seized off Canada’s West Coast.
Detention hearings will begin early this week for as many as 76 migrants from a freighter seized Friday by Canadian military, police and other agencies.]
[Would-be immigrants held
Dozens of would-be immigrants found on board a vessel near Victoria have been taken by ferry to Vancouver on their way to an unknown corrections facility. ]
Based on the current polling, Dutton won’t win any seat in QLD that’s available to him, Dickson or Wright or even Fisher or Fairfax. He’d be no great loss to the Liberals, I’m mystified by those on the right wing who think he’s some sort of major talent.
[Nine were all set to merge their Canberra bureau with Sky, until Laurie Oakes kicked up a stink and they subsequently canned the idea.]
Gives a whole new meaning to “pushing your weight around”, despite Oakes being somewhat thinner than in his heyday 🙂
Compare Dutton with Labor’s talented QLD backbenchers: Brett Reguse, Graham Perritt, James Bidgood, Shayne Neumann etc.
I expect we’ll get a load of whining from the likes of Alan Jones, Ray Hadley and Steve Price that the polls are made up, they can’t be believed, talkback radio is the only true indication of the national pulse etc(although the only people who listen to their shows are rusted on Liberals/One Nation voters/racist bigots etc).
Jason Morrison, another of the Liberal Party “spokesmen” on Sydney radio was confidently predicting today that Rudd is finished – oh sure!
617
Your obedience is noted.
I watched a lot of Korean tv for a while. Hitting people never seemed to escape an episode of any series. Women hitting women, daughters, mothers, friends…all get to hit each other…then the men like to have punch ups.
Had a friend who taught enlish in Taiwan for a long while, Japan and also Korea. Said he would never go back to Korea.
[This must be plan B incase the dog whistling didn’t work, to dent Rudd’s popularity ]
Vera, Ronaldson would be the most complete waste of space in the Liberal Senate (big call I know, but).
He wouldn’t recognise a coherent argument if it came and.. well you know…
He always tried to get some headline from Estimates about Rudd spending, or office. He made a big thing about Rudd having a butler (though of course it was no such thing). He is a fool, and that Turnbull needs him for numbers, just shows how pathetic Turnbull’s leadership has always been.
Remember when a Newspoll with Labor on 59% was a big event? Now it’s just routine. It takes all the fun out of Newspoll Night.
Grog: QT tomorrow will be very amusing, I’m predicting a major meltdown from someone on the Liberal front bench, Abbott or Dutton or Pyne(maybe all 3 if I’m lucky).
Even bashing refugees doesn’t work for them like it used to LOL
[Remember when a Newspoll with Labor on 59% was a big event? Now it’s just routine. It takes all the fun out of Newspoll Night.]
Even I expected a small swing back to the Libs, because of the boat people stuff!
It’ll be worth listening to Radio National tomorrow morning, Fran Kelly won’t be happy.
Evan14, We need someone to start up a talkback radio station give an alternate view to 2UE & 2GB. There would be an audience for it I reckon.
There used to be 2KY but they went 24hr sport and racing.
Grog, I saw an article about the senate being over $1mil over budget, I think due to all the senate enquires. Waste of space and money if this Ronaldson is anything to go by.
Vera: the only non-conservative radio presenter on commercial talkback radio in Sydney would be 2UE’s John Stanley(who does breakfast).
2GB is 100% anti-Labor propoganda, which is a little puzzling as John Singleton is meant to be a Labor man, supposedly anyway.
Centre @761
Barracking for the losing team. 🙂
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/10/17/morgan-60-40-8/comment-page-16/#comment-340737
Evan14 at 772:
[Alan Jones, Ray Hadley and Steve Price … Jason Morrison, another of the Liberal Party “spokesmen” on Sydney radio]
Though in a less outspoken radio role, Gareth McCray, host of 2CH Breakfast, is a paid-up member of the Liberal Party. His daughter is in the Young Liberals. She was refused entry to the Young Liberal dispute at Alex Hawke’s electoral office that made headlines earlier this month. McCray told all to the ABC and …
[… says he realises that his Liberal Party membership will probably be cancelled because he has spoken to the ABC.]
ABC News, 01 October 2009
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/10/01/2702195.htm
[Evan14, We need someone to start up a talkback radio station give an alternate view to 2UE & 2GB. There would be an audience for it I reckon.
There used to be 2KY but they went 24hr sport and racing.]
2KY was originally owned by the NSW Labor Council and thus wouldn’t have employed Alan Jones 🙂
Oh and all the Australian rRadio stations with a K in their callsign were owned by various State Labor bodies, ie 3KZ Melbourne, and 6KY in Perth, the latter being rather ironic as it later (long after being sold by the ALP) employed the former Liberal Member for Stirling, Eoin Cameron 🙂
Singleton might still be dirty on Labor for dumping his advertising of their ecection campaigns?
2KY used to have Mike Bailey and Ron Casey on of a morning years ago
2GB plays to the converted, ie. Liberals from Sydney’s North Shore and the North West, and their audience tends to be the over 50s(those who adore Alan Jones).
I doubt their news service will even report Newspoll tomorrow, they tend to ignore anything favourable to “The Devil Incarnate”, Kevin Rudd.
I remember as a youf listening to The Labor Hour on 3KZ, hosted by Doug Elliott and Jean Melzer. Listening to it in a Liberal household was very subversive, like listening to Radio Peking on the shortwave (which I did as well). But it was very boring, with long dull interviews with the state secretary of the Amalgamated Flangewipers Union, etc. 3XY was owned by the Libs and had a program called Liberal Magazine, but I don’t remember who hosted it.
[I remember as a youf listening to The Labor Hour on 3KZ, hosted by Doug Elliott and Jean Melzer. Listening to it in a Liberal household was very subversive, like listening to Radio Peking on the shortwave (which I did as well]
mal brough and the breakthrough generation was my low point of radio listening.
🙁
[I remember as a youf listening to The Labor Hour on 3KZ, hosted by Doug Elliott and Jean Melzer. Listening to it in a Liberal household was very subversive, like listening to Radio Peking on the shortwave (which I did as well). But it was very boring, with long dull interviews with the state secretary of the Amalgamated Flangewipers Union, etc. 3XY was owned by the Libs and had a program called Liberal Magazine, but I don’t remember who hosted it.]
And before the Libs owned 3XY it was owned by the one and only Frank Thring Snr.
Speaking of 3KZ & XY and other Melbourne Radio stations, check out this ABC Documentary from 1966.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_CNwBfD1_cw
[And before the Libs owned 3XY it was owned by the one and only Frank Thring Snr.]
Do you mean the guy in Ben Hur, El Cid, King of Kings etc?
New thread.