Newspoll: 57-43

As it does from time to time, The Australian has chosen to publish the fortnightly Newspoll on a Monday rather than the anticipated Tuesday. This one has the Labor two-party lead steady on 57-43. Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, Labor to 45 per cent and the Coalition to 37 per cent. After a mild recovery over the previous month, Malcolm Turnbull’s satisfaction and dissatisfaction are both only one point off their worst ever, at 26 per cent (down seven) and 57 per cent (up seven). Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is 65-17, down fractionally from 66-16 a fortnight ago. His approval rating is down three to 60 per cent and his disapproval is up two to 28 per cent.

A day after state Labor MP Alannah MacTiernan at last confirmed she would take on Liberal member Don Randall in the federal seat of Canning, The West Australian has published a Westpoll survey of 400 respondents showing MacTiernan favoured by 41 per cent as state Labor leader, compared with 15 per cent for Mindarie MP John Quigley, 12 per cent for incumbent Eric Ripper and 3 per cent each for Victoria Park MP Ben Wyatt and Kwinana MP Roger Cook. Premier Colin Barnett remains preferred by 55 per cent (steady) against 16 per cent (up three) for Ripper. No figures on voting intention are provided. MacTiernan says she will remain in her seat of Armadale and on the front bench until preselection is resolved.

UPDATE: Essential Research: 60-40.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,128 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43”

Comments Page 62 of 63
1 61 62 63
  1. Briefy
    The Greens are in no position to make a deal on current senate numbers, so what do you care? Get over it. Does Greens *acquiescence* mean that much to you? Do ALPers feel they need the support of at least one other party to give their plan legitimacy? I wonder if any micro-political party supports the ALP’s ETS? If someone can find a word of support from the SA, NDP (do they still exist?), CEC, CDP, DLP, CCC, etc, etc, I will be mildly surprised?

    I for one am pretty happy with the Greens polling and the course the party is taking in regards to the ETS and I don’t think I’m alone in that.

    [I don’t think the Libs would have done the backflip (with a difficulty rating of a zillion) over the alcopos tax unless they took the threat of a double dissolution VERY seriously and, as hopeless as the current Libs are, they are closer to the action than us

    Yeah, good call. That, in a way, actually pretty good evidence that the DD threat is real.

    The Heysen Molotov

  2. Gerry Woods said he was approached some weeks ago by the CLP about siding with them (before this whole affair started), it has also been suggested that the CLP had been talking with Anderson since October 2008.

    This seems to have been a plot to overthrow the NT Govt, that failed.

    Anderson was offered an Aboriginal portfolio and Woods Minster for Lands (Planning and Infrastructure).

    I don’t think you could describe Woods as a conservative or liberal, I don’t think he subscribes to any political philosophy.

    It seems from his comments he would not have agreed to Inpex being where they are (which means they would have stayed in WA) and it seems he wants to turn a prime Oil Gas industry development area into residential area which will put a break on any future growth for the NT in those industries.

    Woods seems to me to be a bit of Green, bit of Labor and a bit Conservative.

    The agreement he has with the ALP is silly really. He guarantees supply and to not support no confidence motions on the proviso that – the Chief Minister remains Paul Henderson and a raft of other guarantees. I can see this getting out of control as he gradually wont resist interfering in more and more govt business.

    I think Labor will go with it only as it gives them time to regroup and also to see how it works.

    But really it is not an ideal situation and an election would have been better.

    Woods has a position exactly like that of X in SA. Everybody likes him, he speaks his mind, he seems to speak a lot of sense. But the problem is that because people begin to idolise him they assume all his thinking is A class. But in reality he is a chook farmer with a lot of horse sense.

  3. Musrum

    I certainly take your point on the “no DD” headline being too strong. As Dio and other said, that was a very interesting headline change on the ABC, given that it was based on Rudd’s comments on morning radio and nothing else in between.

    Did anyone who heard the radio broadcast have a view on exactly what was said?

  4. We just wanna be free!!!

    [Who killed Flipper? – PARK CITY, Utah — Unless you count the remnant of an ancient sea today known as the Great Salt Lake, Ric O’Barry and Louie Psihoyos are more than a thousand miles from the nearest ocean. But one-time dolphin trainer O’Barry and former National Geographic photographer Psihoyos are here in the Utah mountains with a devastating and highly engaging documentary called “The Cove,” which has played to standing ovations at Sundance and is likely to change what you think about humanity’s relationship to the oceans. As O’Barry puts it, after you see “The Cove” you may never buy a ticket to a captive dolphin performance at an aquarium again.

    Once the trainer of TV’s Flipper — actually played by two different female bottlenose dolphins — O’Barry has become the biggest nemesis of the “dolphinarium” business and the worldwide trade in captive dolphins, working legally or illegally to free them wherever he can.]

    The Cove is coming.

  5. Ok, you talked me into it:

    “That these bills be now read a second time.
    upon which Senator Milne moved by way of amendment:
    At the end of the motion, add:
    provided that the Government first commits to entering
    the climate treaty negotiations at the end of 2009 with an
    unconditional commitment to reduce emissions by at least 25
    per cent below 1990 levels by 2020 and a willingness to reduce
    emissions by 40 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020 in
    the context of a global treaty.”

  6. Socrates, something did happen in between – the ABC asked Turnbull about it.

    It’s quite possible that it was he who pointed out that the Prime Minister’s words did not amount to ruling anything out. In fact, given the timeline for the story, this makes far more sense than the suggestion that some Svengali from the PM’s office rang and told journalists to change the headline – all that would serve to do would be to tip the PM’s hand even more.

    Of course it is also possible that it was journalists themselves who realized the nuance involved in the PM’s comments.

  7. [Under the agreement between Mr Wood and the Chief Minister, Labor members are not allowed to cross the floor on any legislation, quit the party or challenge Paul Henderson for the leadership.

    Mr Wood will have monthly meetings with Mr Henderson to discuss his issues and has threatened to rip up the agreement if the promises are not met.

    A Council of Territory Cooperation will also be formed, to be comprised of two members each from the government and opposition and one Independent.

    This council will be empowered to conduct inquiries and make recommendations on matters of public importance and major developments.

    The first items on the agenda will be the $672 million strategic indigenous housing and infrastructure program, local government reforms, the planning scheme, the establishment of the new city of Weddell and the homelands policy.

    The council will also be allowed to conduct public hearings and consult stakeholders and local councils.

    An expert review panel will review the local of the Weddell prison and investigate the possibility of prison farms in Alice Springs, Tennant Creek, Katherine and Darwin.

    Mr Wood also made demands on the governments lands and planning policies.

    A competition will be held for architects and town planners to design the proposed city of Weddell.

    Future development on Middle Arm – with the exception of Inpex – must be approved by the Litchfield Development Consent Authority.

    A stronger Environment Protection Authority will be established with the power to investigate complaints and monitor water and air quality.

  8. [Astrobleme,

    Think “CFMEU opposition”.

    Think “2004 Tasmanian forestry policy”.

    Labor have their reasons for acting as they are…]

    As I keep on saying to these Green Space Cadets. I have vivid memories of that election travelling to the ALP Party for Pearce & Hasluck and hearing those votes coming in from Tassie. And WA still had another couple of hours before the polls closed – it was a VERY sombre mood that night.

  9. That Council of Territory Cooperation sounds suspiciously like the practical application of that time-honoured critique of politicians: why can’t they all just work together for the common good?

    A Grand Coalition of those who Want to Believe? Perhaps revisions to the planning scheme can include the construction of a landing strip similar to the one in Close Encounters of the Third Kind.

  10. Frank,
    You’ve joined us! Yay! Greensborough Growler and I are having another pointless, senceless argument over on the SA thread. Care to join us?

  11. [Frank,
    You’ve joined us! Yay! Greensborough Growler and I are having another pointless, senceless argument over on the SA thread. Care to join us?]

    No, but this childish posts proves that the Space Cadets are more interested in being those things with horns at the bottom of bridges.

  12. I suppose Woods will be the token Independent on the Council?

    The funny thing is, it actually looks like some good might have come out of this whole NT minority government debacle. They have been saved from the horrors of CLP rule and it looks like Woods will encourage much needed reform and hold the “keep the bastards honest” position. Has Anderson lost influence?

  13. Ruawake
    [It is “understood” Dutton has been approached to move to McPherson.]

    Can the LNP please approach Michael Johnson to move to McPherson now that the redistribution has moved his seat of Ryan out from under his home? We’ve had to put up with the globe-trotting slacker for far too long already.

  14. O, for goshness sake Frank!

    Might I remind you of your own catchphrase involving various vessels for containing water and an accusation of the darkest of the dark?

    I was having a lark, something we need more of at the moment. I suppose I should have emoticoned it.




  15. Cuppa 2918
    [I hope Kev’s only saying that to Mess with Mal’s Mind.

    But what he says, he usually means, so I’m thinking no DD..]

    Much like PJK. As a money market trader for the CBA in the eighties, I made the bank a veritible mountain of money by being a Keating believer, listening carefully to what he was saying and adopting market positions accordingly. There were always plenty of Coalition-following cowboys on the other side of those trades who were happy to bet against Keating’s reading of a situation or against his stated position. I still love the guy.

  16. [Yawn – seriously the ABC online needs a rocket up the proverbial.

    What next Newsflash: lawyers accused of pretending to be politicians?]

    I reckon ABC Online are in the process of dumbing down ala News Ltd in preperation of when Unca Rupert starts charging to read his crap.

  17. If Murdoch charges for content, would Newspoll become more difficult to access. I can live without the OO’s interpretations, but we at PB need the fortnightly numbers to fuel our passions.

  18. [If Murdoch charges for content, would Newspoll become more difficult to access. I can live without the OO’s interpretations, but we at PB need the fortnightly numbers to fuel our passions.]

    No, it will just be a few hours late while we wait for it to be uploaded to Newspoll’s website, though hopefully our ABC will continue to publish the results on the Monday Night .

  19. But as we know, “News own Newspoll”. Under Murdochs guidelines, wouldn’t you have to pay for access?

    Just asking?

  20. Astrobleme,

    Labor support euthanasia laws?

    Probably some time after they embrace gay marriage, and Kevin Rudd officiates at Bob Brown’s wedding.

    Labor is somewhat “risk-averse” at the moment.

  21. Astrobleme

    I think anyone who has any concept of these issues would support euthanasia. It is above politics.

    It is cruel that a person is allowed to starve to death but it is illegal for someone to assist in hastening his death.

  22. Rewi Lyall,

    Very true, I missed that (very obvious) reference in Astrobleme’s post. Haste & flippancy. Bad combination.

    Euthanasia is peculiarly subject to scare-campaigns, though. And the nay-sayers are LOUD…

  23. [Astrobleme

    I think anyone who has any concept of these issues would support euthanasia. It is above politics.

    It is cruel that a person is allowed to starve to death but it is illegal for someone to assist in hastening his death.]

    But unfortunately, the Right To Lifers have VERY strong lobbying powers and would make life a living hell for any political party brave enough to support such legislation, hence Eric Ripper’s reluctance to support such moves.

  24. In the past when one of the major parties has conducted a conscious vote has this usually led to the other major party also doing so? Or are there instances of only one of the majors having one?

  25. GG @ 3085 .

    We’d have to start our own polling company. Bludge Poll?

    We could conduct polls amongst ourselves. The beauty would be that the Libs would only ever get 2 or 3% primary vote (3% only if Bree was online) and Nats 0%.

    The Greens would have an inflated primary vote, but we could discount that by the margin of error of their ways.

  26. 3090

    The was a bill proposed by the Greens in Victoria but it was blocked because the ALP all voted against it (the coalition splitting).

  27. Newspoll will still be treated by everyone else under the same copyright provisions as exists now, even if The Oz sticks the reporting of Newspoll behind a paywall. The only thing that will change is that some folks might have to either buy an online subscription if they want to see the results at midnight (or wait the inevitable 20 seconds before someone else does that and lets you know the results).

    Alternatively, you could always buy the paper! 😀

  28. Rights On Site campaign

    [Mr Tribe faces a jail sentence of up to six months for allegedly failing to attend a compulsory interrogation by the ABCC in 2008. Today’s hearing is expected to set dates for the trial.
    Under the Federal Government’s industrial relations laws, construction workers like Mr Tribe can be fined up to $22,000 each for stopping work or jailed for up to six moths for refusing to attend or answer questions at secret interrogations.
    Mr Tribe’s day in court comes as the Federal Government plans to push through new laws that guarantee the continuation of the powers of the ABCC for at least five years under the Government’s new workplace umpire, Fair Work Australia.]

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 62 of 63
1 61 62 63