Newspoll: 57-43

As it does from time to time, The Australian has chosen to publish the fortnightly Newspoll on a Monday rather than the anticipated Tuesday. This one has the Labor two-party lead steady on 57-43. Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, Labor to 45 per cent and the Coalition to 37 per cent. After a mild recovery over the previous month, Malcolm Turnbull’s satisfaction and dissatisfaction are both only one point off their worst ever, at 26 per cent (down seven) and 57 per cent (up seven). Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is 65-17, down fractionally from 66-16 a fortnight ago. His approval rating is down three to 60 per cent and his disapproval is up two to 28 per cent.

A day after state Labor MP Alannah MacTiernan at last confirmed she would take on Liberal member Don Randall in the federal seat of Canning, The West Australian has published a Westpoll survey of 400 respondents showing MacTiernan favoured by 41 per cent as state Labor leader, compared with 15 per cent for Mindarie MP John Quigley, 12 per cent for incumbent Eric Ripper and 3 per cent each for Victoria Park MP Ben Wyatt and Kwinana MP Roger Cook. Premier Colin Barnett remains preferred by 55 per cent (steady) against 16 per cent (up three) for Ripper. No figures on voting intention are provided. MacTiernan says she will remain in her seat of Armadale and on the front bench until preselection is resolved.

UPDATE: Essential Research: 60-40.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,128 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43”

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  1. Turnbull’s satisfaction and dissatisfaction levels now add up to a negative 31 percentage points, just shy of the official record at the end of June of 33 percentage points.

    This the critical equation for Turnbull. If his net negative rating can’t be improved, then he will be doomed. The AFP report, the Privileges Committee Inquiry and Liberal disunity – all things out of his control – await him. Woe for Malcolm.

  2. I see Malcolm Turnbull has released some of his proposed ETS scheme and my first reaction on an issue that i admit i don’t fully understand was that Turnbull appears to be about shifting cost and hiding behind an administtrative framework, i have below quoted two interesting remarks from the BCA and fromIndustry.

    Sourced from thodays Australian Newspaper.

    But both the Business Council of Australia and the electricity industry yesterday rejected the idea of switching to a baseline and credit scheme.

    “The BCA is concerned that a baseline and credit model will bring additional uncertainty over time as such an approach may require changes to the baselines to achieve emissions targets and the quantum and timing of such changes is unknown,” a BCA spokesman said. And Brad Page, chief executive of the Energy Supply Association, said a baseline and credit scheme for electricity generation would hit the asset value of generators by the same amount as the government’s cap and trade scheme, but could mean there was less money available for compensation.

    “A baseline and credit scheme would also be enormously administratively complex,” he said

  3. What is the current margin in Canning!

    This poll is a bit of a let down but it goes to show that the voters have turned off and have either given the Governemnt a tick for its handling of the economy or have been put to sleep by listening to one Rudd speech too many.

  4. A let down, mb? How so? Turnbull has lost more skin and the Government is cruising in the high 50’s. Very satisfactory.

  5. Thanks William!

    Wouldn’t the ALP be better to run her in a safer seat or one that was more marginal for 4.3% is still a solid margin for a Government to gain regardless of how poorly the opporsition is or are we tipping Canning will fall.

  6. Briefly!! I call it a let down for considering the couple of weeks Turnbull and the Liberals have had and yet the TPP is at 57-43 which seems about where Newspoll has been for most of the past two years, i might have expected a 59 or a 60 but regardless this poll shows a five percent swing.

  7. [Wouldn’t the ALP be better to run her in a safer seat or one that was more marginal for 4.3% is still a solid margin for a Government to gain regardless of how poorly the opporsition is or are we tipping Canning will fall.]

    As evidenced by Westpoll, Allanah was a very popular Minister in the Gallop/Carpenter Govt and her crowning achievement in building the Perth to Mandurah Railway, plus she is a very popular local member, of which Canning is part of.

    I reckon she’ll get in 🙂

  8. Interesting that Newspoll is out a day earlier than usual. Perhaps Rupert wants him gone by the morning?

    If there’s any justice Allanah deserves to win a seat.

  9. [Wouldn’t the ALP be better to run her in a safer seat or one that was more marginal]
    Canning overlaps with MacTiernan’s state seat of Armadale. And the safe WA seats are already taken with the Foreign Minister in Perth and two freshmen MPs in Brand and Fremantle.

    I think this is more about Labor putting their strongest candidate forward for Canning than it is about getting MacTiernan into federal parliament. Much like Debus in Macquarie. (Albeit Macquarie was an easier task, having a notional Labor majority.)

    [4.3% is still a solid margin for a Government]
    Normally I’d agree, but I think WA is the one state where Labor has a lot of room for improvement. WA barely swung at all in 2007. My take is that there was still a residual Howard vote which the Liberal Party can expect to lose this time. Plus the fall of the state Labor govt probably helps Labor federally. Swan should be a laydown misere and Stirling, Canning and Cowan will all be very winnable.

  10. Mexicanbeemer: Canning was Labor in the 90’s – the only reason the margin was ever so big for the Libs was that Labor went through three candidates in one election campaign a few years ago, and Don Randall cleaned up. Plus, WA didn’t get the Rudd swing in 2007 but might do this time. A 4.3% swing to Labor would give them Canning, Swan, Cowan and Stirling, and a majority of WA seats for the first time in a while. Even Forrest and Durack would look kinda marginal. Depending on whether Barry Haase goes for the new seat or retires, that may even be winnable without a sitting Liberal – think Flynn last time.

    Also, WA Labor don’t need to worry what leader they’ve got just yet… four years to the next election is a while, unless something quite strange happens to Barnett’s govt. I like John Quigley but I’m not sure how he’d go as a leader (might be a bit Turnbull-ish), Ripper’s the nightwatchman and the other two mentioned are very new. I’m really not sure where the next Labor premier’s coming from. I guess this must be how Glen feels on the flip side of things. 😛

  11. “could not be linked to international trading schemes.”

    This is the central problem with the Liberal scheme, to be useful the ETS scheme needs to be linkable so carbon credits that can be traded internationally. Isn’t there anyone in the Liberal party bright enough to work that out.

    And I see the Greens are trying to explain their stupidity.

  12. Shanahan writes in this morning’s OO:

    [Last week, Mr Grech and Mr Turnbull fully disclosed the extent of their co-operation in trying to get Mr Rudd’s resignation…]

    “Fully disclosed”? Er… uhm… I think we’re a long way from that right now.

  13. BB, I had the same reaction to those words “fully disclosed”. Isn’t it true that Turnbull provided a statement to the AFP, but was not questioned by them? Surely, given that serious breaches of the Public Service regulations have been made -and possibly serious crimes committed- in the leaking of government material, the AFP’s investigations will be ongoing, and Turnbull will face the possibility of questioning?

    On MacTiernan… I initially discounted speculation about her running for a federal seat, as she is unlikely ever to be offered a Ministry -despite her experience and competence at a state level- due to the talent already available to Rudd. But the prospect of leading a weak state ALP in opposition for four -or likely eight- years, by which time she will be approaching retirement, is probably too dismal for her.

  14. I find the poll results surprising to say the least, especially after the week that was, maybe they were more selective in where they polled. Still if it means Turnbull stays fine he is the best secret weapon in the labor arsenal

  15. [Mexicanbeemer: Canning was Labor in the 90’s – the only reason the margin was ever so big for the Libs was that Labor went through three candidates in one election campaign a few years ago, and Don Randall cleaned up.]

    George Gear (member for Canning from 1984 to 1996) is on record as saying that part of the reason he kept winning the seat was that the Liberals kept running Ricky Johnston against him. (She beat him in 1996 at her fifth (!) try and then lost the seat at the next election in 1998–Labor hasn’t won the seat again since she stopped being the Liberal candidate.)

    [A 4.3% swing to Labor would give them Canning, Swan, Cowan and Stirling, and a majority of WA seats for the first time in a while.]

    Labor has won a majority of seats in WA only at the elections of 1903, 1906, 1943, 1946, 1969, 1983, 1984, 1987, and 1990, as well as exactly half of the seats in 1954, 1974, and 1998.

  16. Meanwhile, Alston (cartoonist in the West) flogs the dead horse about MacTiernan being a drinker for the 378th time. I’m not sure if he’s ever drawn her without a glass of wine in her hand. It was funny once or twice in 2001, but it’s getting really old.

  17. [I find the poll results surprising to say the least, especially after the week that was]

    In what way? Should the government be polling higher or lower?

    57-43 is huge for a government by historical standards. I hope the Laborites aren’t expecting the days of 60/40 to come back, they will be sorely disappointed…

  18. It seems Greg Hunt may agree with some PBers that the poll should have been even more lopsided…

    [A DISSATISFACTION rate of 57 per cent for Malcolm Turnbull was actually a very strong performance under the circumstances, a Coalition frontbencher says.

    Opposition environment spokesman Greg Hunt said Mr Turnbull was a powerful leader who was doing a tremendous job.”

    “I actually think under the circumstances it is a very strong result,” he told ABC television. ],25197,25907459-12377,00.html

  19. Bob good point with the polls avg 55-57 labor at 100+ seats does me fine mind you would like to hear of some new lib policies its been a free zone for almost 10 yrs

  20. 57/43 in a general election would give Rudd something like a 40-50 seat majority.
    I’ll take it very gladly, thank you! Laborites shouldn’t get too greedy!
    And Hunt thinks this is a good result for Malcopops? LMAO

  21. Bloody Hell!! Looks like China has got quite a bit of evidence. I hope the MSM stop carrying on about how Hu should be found innocent and sent back to Oz straight away.

    [CHINA alleges Rio Tinto stripped $A123 billion from the country through a six-year program of commercial espionage, as it signalled it will broaden its spy blitz beyond the four mining employees detained in Shanghai.

    The new allegations published on an official website – by far the most detailed and explosive by an official source – all but end hopes that Australian Stern Hu and his three Chinese colleagues will avoid convictions and long jail terms.]

  22. We get so used to seeing Newspoll results like these that they begin to seem unremarkable. Yet really, this is another crushing result. Interesting William’s comment that Lib internal numbers are worse. I’m not surprised. An election on these numbers would see the Libs crushed and Labor close to a Senate majority. It could actually get worse this fortnight if coalition division over the ETS becomes apparent.

    Either way,the Libs should start geting stuck into their pre-selections and draft some new candidates to replace tired old hacks. They need new blood more than Richmond does!

  23. [No way GG. Did you see how much the little lords and ladies loved him on qanda?]

    Yep, that audience was blatantly stacked with Young Liberals!
    Thank goodness Aunty is there to provide “balance”.

  24. Socrates: Will the likes of Fran Bailey, Pat Farmer and a few other marginal seat holders contest the next election?
    Dutton is apparently trying to turf Alex Somalay out of Fairfax.

  25. Evan

    I have no idea but they shouldn’t. They have been comprehensively rejected. Any sitting Lib approaching retirement age who can’t claim to have a significant personal vote needs to be honest with themselves. This particularly applies to those not in shadow cabinet yet in a safe seat; the worst possible combination if they are serious about rebuilding.

  26. I lived on the Sunshine Coast for a while some years ago and Somylay and Slipper were like the invisible men. The local paper, the Sunshine Coast Daily, was staunchly conservative and made the Coutier Mail look like literature. So they had very secure jobs. Yet the area was growing fast and I saw little evidence that they were lobbying for Federal funds either. So at both the national and local level they seemed to be just seat warmers.

  27. A grumpy opinion against giving 16 yr olds the vote. I am not necessarily in favour of lowering the voting age but find the arguments raised in favour of higher ages amusingly inconsistent.

    If we are to argue that some people are too young to vote on grounds of mental competence or maturity, then we could just as easily argue that some of our elderly are not competent to vote, just as they are often not competent to drive or perform other tasks either. I have seen staff in aged care homes “help” people fill out how to vote cards (EPVs) in a shamelessly partisan way at times. How legitimate are such “votes”?

  28. Socrates @35

    The writer says this:
    [Age isn’t the best criterion by which to measure merit, maturity or voter eligibility. … Teenagers lack the three Ps: perspective, perspicacity and proficiency.]
    Is this ‘spot the deliberate contradiction’?

  29. While Fairfax is not that marginal i would love to see Dutton move to Fairfax only to offend enough locals to see him lose that seat 🙂

  30. [What does “concoct” mean? I might go and google it]

    Poss – you could always ring Tony whatsisname in Turnbull’s office. He seems to have a good handle on it.

  31. Good point Socs.

    Given the extent of the politically unengaged in oz, if the lowering of the voting age was accompanied by high school civics classes teaching about the system, histories of parties and pols etc., it’s hard to see how that would not lead to a more engaged and thoughtful approach to politics. To just rule that out from the beginning with a crotchety shout of ‘young people!’ has shades of oldies complaining about Elvis. Australia has led the world on other electoral reforms, why not this one.

  32. [Diogs has a lot to learn about totalitarian regimes and how they concoct “evidence.”]

    Are you saying you are sure Hu is innocent?

    I wonder if China will go after Rio Tinto to recoup some of their alleged losses?

  33. [Poss – you could always ring Tony whatsisname in Turnbull’s office. He seems to have a good handle on it.

    [Whatshisname is the most frequently cited person ever (after Oscar Wilde). It is speculated that he is a friend of FOAF, the most reliable source of news ever (after Uncyclopedia’s UnNews).

    Currently, Whatshisname is a majority leader in the Senate, but actually he is an omnipresent being and is skilled in thousand of professions. It is highly probable that at least one of your neighbors is Whatshisname. You can determine which one by listening to conversations of your other neighbors, who tend to repeat the phrase: “That neighbor, Whatshisname…” about a dozen times a day. ]

  34. From the previous thread

    [J-D @ #3: How does saying a leader should be able to sit in the upper house make Malcolm Mackerras a “fantasist”?]

    Sorry about the delay in answering your question, William.

    Somebody who says that all countries should be democratically governed is simply expressing an abstract general ideal.

    But somebody who goes beyond that to the specific concrete statement that Kim Jong-il should call free elections is a fantasist.

    Mackerras went well beyond simply expressing the abstract general ideal that leaders should be able to sit in upper houses and into fantasy territory.

  35. I have a place for Turnbull, where he can join Nelson.

    [History of Anon-Anon
    The group was founded in 1337 by Anonymous, who was tired of being constantly in the public spotlight, and wanted help. As of 2005, Anonymous Anonymous has an unknown number of members and is considered the 3rd Pillar of Dudism, 2nd Pillar of Islam and 1st Pillar of Christianity. Not to be confused with Scientology’s haters. ]

  36. TP – good one.

    Saw one of the Wiki blokes on telly last night – apparently not looking to make a fortune. Betcha if Rupert got hold of it things would be different.

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