Newspoll: 57-43

As it does from time to time, The Australian has chosen to publish the fortnightly Newspoll on a Monday rather than the anticipated Tuesday. This one has the Labor two-party lead steady on 57-43. Both major parties are down a point on the primary vote, Labor to 45 per cent and the Coalition to 37 per cent. After a mild recovery over the previous month, Malcolm Turnbull’s satisfaction and dissatisfaction are both only one point off their worst ever, at 26 per cent (down seven) and 57 per cent (up seven). Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister is 65-17, down fractionally from 66-16 a fortnight ago. His approval rating is down three to 60 per cent and his disapproval is up two to 28 per cent.

A day after state Labor MP Alannah MacTiernan at last confirmed she would take on Liberal member Don Randall in the federal seat of Canning, The West Australian has published a Westpoll survey of 400 respondents showing MacTiernan favoured by 41 per cent as state Labor leader, compared with 15 per cent for Mindarie MP John Quigley, 12 per cent for incumbent Eric Ripper and 3 per cent each for Victoria Park MP Ben Wyatt and Kwinana MP Roger Cook. Premier Colin Barnett remains preferred by 55 per cent (steady) against 16 per cent (up three) for Ripper. No figures on voting intention are provided. MacTiernan says she will remain in her seat of Armadale and on the front bench until preselection is resolved.

UPDATE: Essential Research: 60-40.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,128 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43”

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  1. Shorely a Liberal could only get away with diffecting to the Nats if they held a fairly rural seat or were a senator. What would be the most built up electorate the Nationals have ever held? Or the smallest electorate in area?

  2. Astrobleme @2996

    You might be surprised how reluctant business is to invest millions of dollars on a “pretty safe to assume” bet.

    However if you could wrap that risk up into a legislative default swap, they would be all over it.

  5. THM

    I think you’ll find that PB is quite a bit to the right of Larvatus Prodeo on most issues.

    It’s a New Labor vs Old Labor thing.

  7. [What would be the most built up electorate the Nationals have ever held?]

    The Nats used to hold some Brisbane seats in the Queensland parliament when Joh was at his peak.

    The Nats used to hold Fisher in the 1980s – so that was the Sunshine Coast…

  8. With May’s announcement surely a reshuffle can’t be too far off.

    Unless they want 2 retirees on the front bench going into an election?

  9. [Haven’t all the Qld Libs and Nats got automatic endorsement? Are there any intending to retire?]

    GG

    Margaret May has announced she will retire. That makes two shadow ministers who will not contest the next election. Will Turnbull do the “shuffle” soon.

  11. I do not understand why everyone is talking about dutton going to Fairfax or McPherson.

    Why doe he not just take the new seat of Wright. No pesky sitting member and in my opinion a bloated labor vote. Seems pretty simple to me.

  12. Call me daft, but notice what Rudd said on early elections……”People don’t like them.” He’s quite right about that. But if we end up having one, Rudd will blame the Opposition. He will be able to say he is on the record as not wanting a DD. If we have a DD it will be because the Opposition have provoked it…..and fair point, inmho.

  13. Will both sides have to sort out their preselection over the next 3 months in case Rudd calls a DD on the ETS or do they just do it in a huge rush?

  14. Borbidge (or whatever his name was) used to hold Surfers Paradise, then when he quit the Nats only got a few percent in the by-election.

  15. [I do not understand why everyone is talking about dutton going to Fairfax or McPherson.

    Why doe he not just take the new seat of Wright.]

    McPherson is far safer and there is no sitting member. As it’s on the Gold Coast, it’s probably less likely to care about a carpet-bagging new member than a seat in the hinterland.

  16. Re: Turnbull
    [He is selectively quoting the RBA Gov’nor over interest rates.]

    I’ll bet he’s not quoting him over debt.

  17. The ABC headline has been changed to “Rudd denies early poll intentions” which is quite different from “Rudd rules out double dissolution poll” which they had earlier (God they are HOPELESS). And Malcolm isn’t buying it either. Looks like it’s still Game On to me.

    [But Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull has dismissed Mr Rudd’s comments.

    “If he’s serious or sincere about that then why is he following this artificial timetable on the emissions trading scheme?” he said.

    “Why does he have to vote on the scheme this week why has there been a complete refusal to negotiate with the Opposition all year and why is he insisting on bringing the legislation back in November?”]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/08/14/2656077.htm

  18. [“Why does he have to vote on the scheme this week why has there been a complete refusal to negotiate with the Opposition all year and why is he insisting on bringing the legislation back in November?”]

    Because Rudd is Prime Minister? 🙂

  19. Besides, saying there will be a DD “unless the bill is passed” would turn out to be a way of completely destabilizing the political process. It would also give the initiative to the LNP and would allow them to run a “say-no-to-a-carbon-tax” campaign for the next 4 months.

    Bob Hawke fell for that one and lost ground to Peacock, who ran a word-perfect scare campaign for month after month. I don’t think Rudd or the Liberals will have forgotten that performance.

  20. [The ABC headline has been changed to “Rudd denies early poll intentions” which is quite different from “Rudd rules out double dissolution poll” which they had earlier (God they are HOPELESS).]

    I wonder if Rudd’s office picked up the phone.

  22. Since there has been so much interest I might just link in full Christine Milne’s press release on amending the RET bill.
    [Greens propose amendments to unleash renewable energy

    The Australian Greens today released proposed amendments to strengthen the Renewable Energy Target bill and unleash the tremendous potential of renewable energy.

    Greens Deputy Leader, Senator Christine Milne, wrote to Ministers Wong and Combet setting out the amendments which have been circulated to all Senators this morning. Senator Milne also moved in the Senate yesterday to give precedence to the RET bill over all other business of the Senate as soon as it is passed in the House of Representatives.

    “It is time to end the unnecessary and damaging delays both old parties have caused to the renewable energy bill,” Senator Milne said.

    “Unlike the Continue Polluting Regardless Scheme, which would have held back action on the climate crisis, the renewable energy target bill is a vital step in the right direction, even if it is not as strong as it could and should be.

    “The collapse of the CPRS opens the door to a suite of other measures that can be implemented immediately to move ahead with ambitious action on the climate crisis, before an amended CPRS returns to the Parliament. The renewable energy target is the first step.

    “We Greens are calling on the Government to immediately bring on the renewable energy target legislation, to unleash the tremendous potential of renewable energy to re-energise Australia and create tens of thousands of jobs.

    “Both the big old parties have been using Australia’s clever and clean renewable energy industry as a political football. Both old parties bend over backwards to sandbag the old polluters, but neither is willing to give priority to the renewable energy powerhouse that the Australian community wants.”

    The letter, from Senator Milne to Ministers Wong and Combet, sets out the Greens’ proposed amendments to:
    • Lift the target to 30% by 2020, expressed as a percentage of total energy demand, and introduce a two-yearly review of the adequacy of the target;
    • Decouple the bill from the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme by simply removing the exemptions for polluting industry (since there is compelling evidence that the pool price for electricity will drop due to the RET, an exemption would give a windfall gain to polluters);
    • Fix the problem of ‘phantom renewable energy credits’ created by the solar multiplier and lift the size limit on solar installations;
    • Replace the ill-thought-out solar multiplier with a gross national feed-in tariff for all forms of renewable energy; and
    • Strengthen the definition of renewable energy by removing native forest bioenergy, solar water heating and heat pumps.

    “I look forward to working with Minister Wong to improve the renewable energy bill and get it signed into law as swiftly as possible.” ]
    http://greensmps.org.au/content/media-release/greens-propose-amendments-unleash-renewable-energy

  23. Diogenes & ruawake,

    Yes. Malcolm could have sounded all leader-like there, but then he started his second sentence.

    And on another subject, interest rates are the last refuge of a scoundrel.

  26. Peter Dutton is a non-performer, in my opinion!
    The Libs ought to try finding a decent candidate to replace Margaret May.

  27. triton

    [I wonder if Rudd’s office picked up the phone.]

    I’d love to know why they changed it. I got very suspicious of the headline when News didn’t even bother to run with the story.

    I think it’s safe to say that if the shoe was on the other foot that Turnbull’s press office would have been googling “double dissolution” and “intentions” rather than getting on the phone.

    Rudd seems to run a very tight ship.

  28. Diogs,

    Why would the Government be easing the pressure on the Libs and especially Turnbull. The Libs have to come up with a policy in order for there to be negotiations. Blathering on from the sidelines is demonstrating Turnbull’s weak position. His “Look, there’s a unicorn” statement on interest rates will fool only those who believe the last thing they read.

    Phil Coory gave a good sense of the current situation.

    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/global-warming/turnbulls-day-of-reckoning-around-the-corner-20090813-ejyr.html

  31. [Yes. Malcolm could have sounded all leader-like there, but then he started his second sentence.]

    MT is a political corpse. From now until he stops moving, it is all death rattle.

  32. Musrum,

    Putting on my best Bernard Woolley impression, “Doesn’t the death rattle come before the body becomes a corpse?”.

  33. [Lift the target to 30% by 2020]

    Is that the bottom line for Greens support or would there a pragmatic acceptence of the 20% target.

  38. Peter Hartcher at the SMH could have been providing a condensed version of the PB song book. Turnbull is Opposition leader in name only….very funny, considering how bellicose he is.

  39. GG

    I almost fell off my chair at the report that Rudd had ruled out a DD on ETS. Thankfully, it was just the incompetent/mischievous ABC.

    And did Barnaby really say this?

    [The Nationals leader in the Senate, Barnaby Joyce, told the Herald that ”if it’s a choice between Rudd’s scheme and Malcolm’s scheme, I will prefer the latter.

    ”But please don’t take that as an endorsement of the argument – they are both full of sh*t.” ]

  41. I don’t think the Libs would have done the backflip (with a difficulty rating of a zillion) over the alcopos tax unless they took the threat of a double dissolution VERY seriously and, as hopeless as the current Libs are, they are closer to the action than us

    Tom

  42. Dutton is part of the Liberals’ “Future Squad”, isn’t he?

    He’d be more comfy in McPherson than his current seat post-redistribution…

  43. briefly,

    He’s a lawyer & a corporate. They reserve the greatest bellicosity for the times they don’t a leg to stand on, and have no options.

  44. [And did Barnaby really say this?]

    My bet is a definite yes. He said the other day that joint party room meetings were boring as bat…. 🙂

  45. The G’s like to play at poker….”We’ll see your 20 and raise it 10. And we’ll do a lot of other stuff with our press release, such as calling you old.”

    This should be the historic moment the G’s have been waiting for. The Environment finally gets a Government that takes the issues seriously, but it seems they are not happy. Their tactics do remind me of the Republican Right: never ever do a deal and blame the other guys….

  48. [Putting on my best Bernard Woolley impression, “Doesn’t the death rattle come before the body becomes a corpse?”.]

    As ever, MT is ahead of the game.

  49. 30% by 2020 is 3% per year including next year. I would think it would be virtually impossible to get anyway near that even with all energy generation sectors working flat out to achieve it!

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