Fremantle by-election live

679 comments on “Fremantle by-election live”

1. [Frightened Labor stooges do not make up the “average” Australian population.]

   Tell that to people who listen to Talkback Radio and and watch Commercial Television News & Current Affairs. Oh and voters in Country areas.

2. [Colin Barnett tells the ABC the North Port Quay backers’ campaign is a “waste of money”, and a redevelopment of the area is “years and years away”. Round one to Adele Carles?]

   No, Colin is protecting the loss of Doctor’s Wives votes in Cottesloe to The Greens 🙂

3. Ouch.

   ‘Barnett threatens to cut Labor funding’.

   http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/05/20/2575951.htm

4. [Oh and voters in Country areas.]

   Funny you should say that. An analysis by Antony Green just came in and in it are the highest primary votes by booth.

   9/10 of them for The Greens are in regional areas.

5. [9/10 of them for The Greens are in regional areas.]

   no doubt all the Sea Changers, I’m talking about your traditional rurla voter who were born and bred there.

6. [9/10 of them for The Greens are in regional areas.]

   But to be fair Oz, most of them are small booths in the middle of a bunch of hippie communes.

7. [But to be fair Oz, most of them are small booths in the middle of a bunch of hippie communes.]

   Thank you Possum 🙂 You won’t find a high Green Primary Vote in Narrogin.

8. [Don’t underestimate the Italian vote for Tagliaferri. With his hight profile as Fremantle Mayor, and his outspoken oppositrion to Lead Shipments I reckon He’ll win it for Labor.]

   [Yep, totally agre, and Taggers will be campaigning heavily against the Lead Exports as well – and watch those Italian Voters, they love to support their paesane]

   [As I’ve always said – especially given the fact of his high profile both as Mayor, Interfoods, and most importantly the fact that his Father helped established the Fremantle Italian Club. I’ll bet 3 generations of Italians in the Fremantle Area bought their Spaghetti, Sauces, smallgoods and other items from that store and saw Peter grow up as a small boy to become Mayor – that’s loyalty for you.]

   [And somehow I feel that Today’s Budget announcements will favour a major party rather than a minor one]

   [ I’m sorry, but Carles only did well last year because of voter apathy – this time there is the Daylight Savings Referendum which will bring out the voters and they won’t waste their vote this time, having had the scare of losing the seat to the Greens.]

   [Methinks there will be quite a few Greens with egg on their faces on Saturday Night ]

   Frank, that is what you said before the election.

   Post election you now say:

   [But as Robert Talyor said, it didn’t matter WHO the ALP pre-selected, we wouldn’t have won without the Liberals standing a candidate.]

   Incidentally, Taylor also said the Greens couldn’t win, now he says they were always destined to win.

   The ALP always thought they were a shoe in and instead got spanked. You were outcampaigned and that is why you lost.

9. [Colin Barnett tells the ABC the North Port Quay backers’ campaign is a “waste of money”, and a redevelopment of the area is “years and years away”. Round one to Adele Carles?]

   I should clarify my last comment by saying Colin is only trying to prevent a loss of support of the more greenish soft Liberal Voters to the Greens as there has been a very strong anti high rise development movement in his electorate.

10. [But to be fair Oz, most of them are small booths in the middle of a bunch of hippie communes.]

    But they’re in the country! =P

    I got a giggle out of Elands and Nimbin.

11. [You won’t find a high Green Primary Vote in Narrogin.]

    And you won’t find a high Liberal Primary in Leichardt. Point?

12. [The ALP always thought they were a shoe in and instead got spanked. You were outcampaigned and that is why you lost.]

    Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but remember it was the Laxck of a Liberal Candidate and the facts that those same Liberals voted Green is why the Greens won, nothing more, nothing less.

    Had the Libs run a candidates and there were “independents” then the result would’ve have been so convincing for the Greens.

    Basically The Greens won from dancing with the Devil, and sooner or later it will end in tears.

13. [But they’re in the country! =P

    I got a giggle out of Elands and Nimbin.]

    Very true!

    Let it never be said that the Greens struggle with votes in the Dope Belt! 😀

14. [those same Liberals voted Green]

    This is a supposition without any real statistical basis. How many new voters to the Greens were former ALP voters and how many were former Liberal Voters?

    In my experience on polling day at White Gum Valley Primary, they appeared to be in equal numbers.

15. [This is a supposition without any real statistical basis. How many new voters to the Greens were former ALP voters and how many were former Liberal Voters?]

    Look at the Liberal Primary Vote at the last State Election and the vote of “Liberal Independent” Carmelo Zagami. And note the at the Primary ALP Vote at both polls, there was only a 0.3% difference.

    I rest my case 🙂

16. Frank
    Are you suggesting that because the Libs didn’t put in a candidate the people who used to vote Lib shouldn’t be allowed to vote how they like? Are you suggesting that the Greens should have rejected those votes because they used to be Liberal voters? Are you suggesting that the Greens courted the Liberal vote?

    It would seem strange that people who voted for a right wing party would prefer a further left-wing party to the centrist party… Or perhaps they just didn’t like the Labor Member.

    I think you are being very insulting to the voters of Fremantle.
    They obviously wanted a Adele Carles more than Tagliaferri, simple as that.

17. Are you suggesting that the ALP acquired no new votes and simply got exactly the same voters they got last time?

    My suggestion is that these figures show that for every former Liberal voter they acquired for selecting a conservative candidate they lost a former Labor voter for the same reason for no net gain.

    Sure, some Libs voted for the Greens but I suspect not all of them did.

18. In fact, the 0.4% loss on primaries would suggest that Labor bled more than was transfused.

19. [I think you are being very insulting to the voters of Fremantle.
    They obviously wanted a Adele Carles more than Tagliaferri, simple as that.]

    They wanted Adele Carles because she didn’t look or behave like a Radical Feral, had the Greens pre-selected a person with Dreadlocks and who smoked Dope, then the Libs ‘wouldn’t have parked their vote there

    THAT IS A FACT !!!

    Oh and the Libs would vote for a Child Molester, as long as it hurt the ALP.

20. [In fact, the 0.4% loss on primaries would suggest that Labor bled more than was transfused.]

    That 0.1% extra would be the Grizzling Branch members who were pissed off they didn’t get their way.

21. Frank
    “They wanted Adele Carles because she didn’t look or behave like a Radical Feral, had the Greens pre-selected a person with Dreadlocks and who smoked Dope, ”

    There are no Greens that I know who have dreadlocks and smoke dope.
    Seriously, why did you even bother making the comment?

    “Oh and the Libs would vote for a Child Molester, as long as it hurt the ALP.”
    This is your ego talking. You can’t seem to comprehend that given the choice placed before the people, they chose Adele.
    Heck by you logic we could now say that if the Libs didn’t put up any candidates anywhere in Australia, the Greens would be in power.

22. [There are no Greens that I know who have dreadlocks and smoke dope.
    Seriously, why did you even bother making the comment? ]

    That is the image by the general population- especially during protests.

    [“Oh and the Libs would vote for a Child Molester, as long as it hurt the ALP.”
    This is your ego talking. You can’t seem to comprehend that given the choice placed before the people, they chose Adele.
    Heck by you logic we could now say that if the Libs didn’t put up any candidates anywhere in Australia, the Greens would be in power.]

    The Figures above speak for themselves, the Libs on masse without a candidate parked their votes with Adele Carles.

23. [The Figures above speak for themselves, the Libs on masse without a candidate parked their votes with Adele Carles.]

    Your statistical analysis here is flawed.

    Possum or William, what do you think?

24. Frank,
    “That is the image by the general population- especially during protests.”
    You speak for all of Australia now do you? Or is it that you would just rather promote an out-dated perception? This idea of the Greens being hippies is WAY out of date. This is probably why the ALP lost the by-election, you were all working from an out-dated idea of who the Greens are.

    “The Figures above speak for themselves, the Libs on masse without a candidate parked their votes with Adele Carles.”
    Again, they did this because they preferred her to Tagliaferri. Obviously they thought she was a better candidate DESPITE her ideology being further from the Libs.

25. [Your statistical analysis here is flawed.]

    Compare it to the 2008 Result:

    Candidate Votes Counted % Valid Votes
    CARLES – GRN 5,191 27.56%
    McGINTY – ALP 7,286 38.69%
    DU PLESSIS – FFP 318 1.69%
    CHRISTIE – LIB 5,689 30.21%
    HOLLETT – CDP 350 1.86%
    Total Valid Votes 18,834 100.00%
    Informal 1,132 5.67%

    http://www.waec.wa.gov.au/elections/state_elections/election_results/2008_State_General_Election/District_of_Fremantle/District_results.php

26. [This idea of the Greens being hippies is WAY out of date. This is probably why the ALP lost the by-election, you were all working from an out-dated idea of who the Greens are.]

    Tell that to people who watch A Current Affair and who listen to Commercial Talkback

    THEY are the people who decide who wins or loses elections.

27. [This is probably why the ALP lost the by-election, you were all working from an out-dated idea of who the Greens are.]

    You obviously didn’t read my earlier comments about the changing demographic of the Electorate, and the Letter from Kevin Moran and Paul Murray’s Column.

28. I am sorry frank, my brain hurts, cant talk anymore.

    You win.

29. [This idea of the Greens being hippies is WAY out of date]

    I think the strength of the idea is roughly proportional to the distance from the nearest decent latte.

30. Frank
    “THEY are the people who decide who wins or loses elections.”
    Yes, and they voted for Adele…

    Possum
    “I think the strength of the idea is roughly proportional to the distance from the nearest decent latte.”
    Wouldn’t that be inversely proportional? You don’t have to go far to get a latte in Freo.

31. [Frank
    “THEY are the people who decide who wins or loses elections.”
    Yes, and they voted for Adele…]

    You still don’tget it, Fremantle is NOT your average electorate. I’m talking about your AVERAGE voter in the Mortgage Belt.

32. [ I think the strength of the idea is roughly proportional to the distance from the nearest decent latte. ]

    Or to the distance from the nearest pub with Emu Bitter on tap? They’re greening up too these days, well down Rockingham Rd from the cappuccino strip.

33. [Wouldn’t that be inversely proportional?]

    The larger the distance, the larger the idea.

34. Possum

    Ok, got you.
    Although, the idea is not very big at my place… in Mount Hawthorn… Hang on. Very easy to get a latte in Mount Hawthorn.

    This would imply Fremantle will remain Greens for some time then… And that maybe Curtin will became Green too. Lots of lattes around Subi, Claremont, Cottesloe etc. I will look forward to the ousting of Julie Bishop with some glee!

35. [This would imply Fremantle will remain Greens for some time then… And that maybe Curtin will became Green too. Lots of lattes around Subi, Claremont, Cottesloe etc. I will look forward to the ousting of Julie Bishop with some glee!]

    Julie Bishop will only leave that Electorate in a pine box with Peter Nattrass as one of her Pall Bearers.

36. Look, obviously Green commenters here are getting a laugh out of stirring the possum a little.

    The reality is, as you all know, the result in Fremantle simply cannot be extrapolated out to the broader electorate. I have not seen any serious suggestion here or anywhere else that it can. Maybe this will change over time, maybe not. You all seem to be suggesting that the Greens’ lack of popularity in the wider electorate has nothing to do with perceived radicalism, some of which is related to forest conservation protests. Surely you jest. Some of you seem to be attempting to argue that you’re more popular than is actually borne out by the figures.

    As I said, it’s good for a laugh. But as I also said earlier, it’s pretty clear who’d be getting the biggest laugh out of all of this.

    Certainly, the party has gone a long way in trying to distance itself from this image, but if that’s not the reason for the lack of support, what is?

    The Greens can, and will, continue to seek to cherrypick the most likely looking seats from Labor, at the expense of Left Labor members of parliament, further entrenching the position within the ALP of the Labor Right. Perhaps a signficant reason that Fremantle was such a success for the Greens was that Tagliaferri wasn’t from the Left, and so more distant politically than in contests like Melbourne or Sydney.

    However, assuming future Greens success in seats such as those, this is the real price to be paid for Greens success in these seats: no net gain for the left of Australian politics.

    Now, I don’t agree with much of Frank’s arguments here, but it would appear to me that a zero sum game with the Labor Left, the only conceivable benefit of which could be perceived as the strategic political advantage of the Greens relative to other parties, is a genuine exercise in machine politics. I don’t deny that there is principle involved, including the principle that the Greens have superior principles to the Labor Left. The only perceivable difference is that it’s two machines rather than internal to one.

37. Bule

    “You all seem to be suggesting that the Greens’ lack of popularity in the wider electorate has nothing to do with perceived radicalism, some of which is related to forest conservation protests.”

    Of course the Greens understand this, just as they know it is untrue.

    Just as all the Labor and Liberal posters here understand that they need to maintain the idea of radicalism.

    For a different perspective: Perhaps the Labor party can thank the Greens. Here they have singlehandedly swung a huge right-wing package of voters over to the left… Perhaps for these new left voters it won;t be so scarey voting left in the future? perhaps the greens have done everyone a huge favour!

38. [For a different perspective: Perhaps the Labor party can thank the Greens. Here they have singlehandedly swung a huge right-wing package of voters over to the left… Perhaps for these new left voters it won;t be so scarey voting left in the future? perhaps the greens have done everyone a huge favour!]

    Bulldust,

    Those voters will return back to the Liberal Fold when they have an actual Candidate to vote for.

    You’re just lucky there was no Liberal Candidate.

39. Actually, Astrobleme, I earlier suggested that some members of the ALP share some perspectives with some more moderate members of the Greens, the latter which I perceived to be well represented by commenters here.

    It was luke who quickly denied being moderate.

    I bow to his self-assessment.

40. Bule
    Well that’s nice to know. All the Greens I know are moderate people.

    What did Luke say?

    There are a lot of posters, like Frank and Greensborough Growler who just chant the radical line.

41. [Well that’s nice to know. All the Greens I know are moderate people.]

    They are the exception to the rule.

    See Diogene here re the Windfarms.

    http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2009/05/18/newspoll-56-44-10/comment-page-24/#comment-275513

42. Astrobleme, here it is:

    [But you are right, I don’t think I am a moderate.]

    I should say, there may well be some ALP members who share some perspectives with radical members of the Greens as well 😉

43. [There are a lot of posters, like Frank and Greensborough Growler who just chant the radical line.]

    Well it doesn’t do your Party’s cause any good when their MP’s are involved in stuff like this.

    [PEOPLE are being urged to break into shops, “disable” four wheel drives and throw pies at people by an extreme environmental group being promoted by the NSW Greens.

    The group Rising Tide is planning a blockade of the world’s biggest coal port in Newcastle, for which Greens MP Lee Rhiannon has held a “direct action and civil disobedience” workshop to prepare protesters.

    Rising Tide claims the protest will be legal and peaceful, however it also warned participants “there can be no guarantee against arrest”.

    Ms Rhiannon – who will attend the blockade with her staff – yesterday praised Rising Tide but said she was unaware of its support of vandalism and did not condone it.

    Rising Tide said people concerned about climate change should also “shut down” petrol stations and blockade power plants.

    The suggestions are contained in a list of 64 “actions” posted on the group’s website.

    A spokeswoman for Rising Tide stood by the list, saying the actions were “trivial” compared to the threat of climate change.

    Many of the suggestions are benign but some are clearly illegal and potentially dangerous.]

    http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,25183070-5001021,00.html

    And remember your average voter in MOST electorates get their news from sources such as this.

44. Bule

    well I guess he is then!
    I suppose now we should try and define ‘moderate’… 😉

45. [It was luke who quickly denied being moderate.

    I bow to his self-assessment.]

    Maybe this is for others who know me to decide.

46. Clearly a moderate Green is someone who agrees with me.

47. Astrobleme,

    I caught you out in a lie earlier regarding Peter Garrett and now strike 2.

    I don’t do chants!

48. Greensborough Growler

    Yes yes,
    and I apologised for the ‘lie’ – you do understand the difference between a lie and a mistake, yes?

49. Not sure if anyone has noticed this piece by Robert Taylor in today’s West, which impresses me much more than Paul Murray’s lazy Labor-bashing from yesterday (in fact, I can detect Taylor taking a dig at it in a couple of places). I particularly agree with this:

    [But while criticism of Mr McGinty’s decision is easy to justify, criticism of the party’s decision to endorse Fremantle mayor Peter Tagliaferri because he wasn’t “Labor enough” is very wide of the mark.

    For starters it’s stupid to argue that Mr Tagliaferri got the nod in a factional deal. Labor is made up of factions even if Mr Tagliaferri never joined one. The mayor was simply the best on offer. The critics have not come up with an alternative.

    It’s also hard to argue for the party’s factional system to be dismantled while at the same time criticising it for “parachuting” in a not-so-Labor candidate, although some are managing to do it.]

    Like he says, I’m yet to hear any critic of the Tagliaferri preselection suggest who they should have picked instead. As I’ve intimated though, I’m less sure about this:

    [The master stroke in Fremantle came from the Liberals via their decision not to field a candidate. Even if that move delivered a far-left candidate into Parliament, it weakened Labor’s position and therefore strengthens that of Premier Colin Barnett on the floor of the House.]

50. While I’m here, Luke asked earlier what I thought of Frank’s rather crude interpretation of primary vote swings. I refer to this from my post:

    [Equally interesting was the lack of a significant correlation between the Greens swing and the Liberal vote from the state election. That would seem to argue against the notion that a static Labor vote was swamped by Liberals moving to the Greens.]

Comments are closed.