A narrowing trend in recent federal polling has come to an abrupt halt with this week’s Essential Research survey, which shows Labor’s lead blowing out from 57-43 to 61-39. Supplementary questions find the punters anticipating budget misery and loving it – twice as many (38 per cent to 19 per cent) expect it to be bad for them personally as expect it to be good, while 49 per cent want tax cuts deferred against 35 per cent who want them to proceed. In other news, most support the government’s changes to the emissions trading scheme and oppose the commitment of further troops to Afghanistan.
No 2349
That’s beside the point.
Australia has a regrettable and growing track record of not upholding confidentiality of top-level negotiations and discussions.
Certainly a chance that it has more credibility than G.W .Bush had or has.
1915,
Oz, that is SO unfair when they won’t let members of the gallery bring in reading material 😉 ……. I think Tanner gets more camera coverage than a random gallery guest 😉 …… but it shows how entertaining it was I guess 😀
Yes. They didn’t even ask one question about it during question time. Instead they let Hockey make up a heap of question on the run, including quoting Bob Hawke!
Ahh, come on! For those going to the gallery, parliament IS their entertainment. The poor MP’s have nothing.
No problems for the Government getting cash for its Budget spending.
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25475932-5017014,00.html
Pointing out the true extent of George W. Bush’s stupidity was a service to the entire international community.
I believe alcohol & tobacco excises are already indexed to the CPI
Smoking is entirely pointless and only serves to gradually ruin a sizable percentage of peoples lives through emphysema, cancers and the other side effects.
Most persistent smokers only smoke because of addiction. But I guess it is their democratic right to engage in risky behavior. But the cost to society is huge and unnecessary. Of course they should be made to pay a premium for their self destructive habit. This is not to denigrate the character of people who smoke. I did hear somewhere that smoking was more addictive than some hard drugs.
Further slugs in Cig tax should go into the health system and also to ways to stop people taking it up and have others give it up.
From what I have seen of China and have read somewhere they have a looming crisis of smoking related diseases. It seems as though every second person there smokes.
As for Hockey and Turnbull they should learn that if they don’t have anything to say better they less, not more.
ltep 1968,
Million dollar question – will Turnbull last longer after his budget reply speech than Nelson did after his? 😀
If Rudd wants to be UN Secretary General he has a bigger ego than Malcolm’s!
Wouldn’t it be GOOD for Australia to have an Australian as the secretary general of the U.N.?
It is annoying and very careless. It isn’t something that cuts through with the general public though.
No 2362
The UN is a forum of gross imbecility/
Glen, if that’s all the Opposition has to offer in challenge to the Government’s supremacy, then your mob is totally doomed.
No 2365
The Government is supreme only in the sense of the volume of hot air it delivers to the electorate.
It is a curious charge made by the Opposition that Rudd was angling to be UN chief one day. The way that is was said was to actually imply that he would have a chance, thus only serving to lift Rudd’s standing.
Glen, the only saving that Hockey could offer tonight was a miserable $11m by Australia not lobbying for a place on the UN Security Council. Wow!
http://www.smh.com.au/national/jobless-rate-doubles-in-innercity-sydney-20090514-b4ti.html
Anyone else living in inner-city Sydney find a doubling in the jobless rate from the end of last year to 9% now very hard to believe?
Oh why do statements like that remiknd me of this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C41RihwfVwA
What was the ER poll result again. Ah yes. 61-39 .
Cameron’s response to the obscene Darling budget:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NEVVRFTwt2I
What is the government saving though bugger all!
Wonder if the Greens will help the Govt in going for a DD?
In addition to going to the electorate while the polls are still high it would be more beneficial for the Govt to go while they had the kudos and control of the economic debate and, before the inevitable increase in unemployment and attrition of media and Liberal blaming.
You would think X wouldn’t mind either. They all stand to gain from an early election except the Coalition and F.
LIKE the Liberal party room!
An Australian leading the U.N. would at least mean it could start being FIXED.
CORRECTION: In the way it has lead every poll since Dec 2006.
Part of which would be used to set up the Parliamentary Budget office.
Sorry G.P., Cameron can’t lead the Liberals because he isn’t an Australian.
Correction: $14.5 billion over 4 years.
Glen, you are moving away from the Lib talking points sheet again. What about the Rudd recession and the massive debt left to our great great grand kids etc.
Whilst committing to $140 billion in new spending. The savings are almost futile by comparison to the debt binge.
Incorrect. The savings are for FUTURE OUTLAYS, which means they increase each year.
The spending commitments are ONE OFFs. Once you build a highway, you don’t have to keep paying to build it again each year.
2078,
Yeah; increase tax on cigs, do the private health thing AND the alcopops tax too 🙂 ….. actually Kev ought to thank his lucky stars that MT suggested it (re cigs), now he can jump and run with it and the budget they proposed on Tuesday will be back into surplus sooner 😀
That’s what Rudd and Roxon should say “you support the permanent increase on alcopops, and we will support your tobacco tax increase”
Turnbull is playing a very dangerous game now. This is gambling in its most dangerous form.
Sensing the extreme vulnerability of the Opposition now, the Greens and Mr X will campaign like they have never campaigned before and the Libs and Nats will be their main target as their Senate seats are the ones they are most likely to pick up.
Gus @ 2086, another good one is this:
we all know MT isn’t bold 😉
There is some tension there. It would be in Xenophon’s interest for their to be a double dissolution, because then his vote alone may earn two quotas. However, the Greens would prefer a half senate election, because that would all but ensure them of the balance of power.
I wonder if that will inform their votes? The Greens ultimately supporting most of the budget, while Xenophon voting against as much as possible (without looking like a Liberal) so that he can create D.D. triggers.
How much of that is recurrent spending Glen?
Just to help Glen out, “recurrent spending” is the type of spending commitments Liberals make during mining booms that they think will never end.
Ehhhhh I think the a lot of you have been suckered by media hype on a DD. There are a couple of articles in the Fairfax press tomorrow about the low chance of an early election.
Talking about whether The Greens or Xenophon would vote on legislation on the basis of whether that would spur an early election is a sign you need to take a step back. The Greens have already said they want Rudd to serve a full term and given the fact that they’ve worked hard to amend some legislation but also blocked other bits there’s no evidence either way. Same for Xenophon.
I have the feeling it will be Turnbull saying he will support alcopops if the government will raise tobacco. A reasonable response from someone spooked by the prospect of a DD trigger. Could that be the reasoning behind a budget reply that called for nothing much more than a tobacco tax rise?
I think it is extremely unlikely too, and I don’t think a D.D. is in the Government’s interests. The best realistic scenario for the Government is the Greens holding the balance of power.
It does raise an interesting point though. If the Liberals REALLY think the government spending so much is THAT bad. Why don’t they vote against all the appropriations bills, and see if Fielding is willing to help them block supply.
1) If debt is SO BAD, surely the Liberals will do ABSOLUTELY everything to block spending.
2) They’ve done it before, so obviously they couldn’t care less about the conventions of our system of government.
Xenophon won’t vote for the private health insurance means testing.
Xenophon won’t support the CPRS, because he supports a carbon tax, not a trading scheme.
Those bills alone could produce D.D. triggers.
bring it on!
I know that, but I think Xenophon has legitimate reasons or principles for voting against those things, the same reasons why The Greens will vote down some things, not because they do or don’t want to force an early election.
2319,
Gus, if they do borrow your idea, we’ll know that someone is reading PB and he/she is undercover … 😉
The “$140 billion in new spending” line is curious indeed. I thought a few months ago when a possible $200 billion debt was foreshadowed Turnbull had to admit that the Coalitions own policies woudl result in a $180 billion debt. So where did this extra $140 billion come from? I think he is just plucking numbers from thin air.
I think everyone is a little bit confused to a certain extent. Half the numbers flying around are based on forward estimates for different periods and half are for spending this year. People are trying to compare them but it doesn’t make any sense.
Are the Liberals even in financial shape for an election campaign now? I thought their Qld branch was almost broke just a few months ago after the Qld state election? Business donatons can’t be good in the current climate. Surely they don’t really want a DD now?
Xenophon is a very wily political operator, I wouldn’t put anything past him.
Eurgh, tautology. Too tired, sleep time.
No, they’d have to go into DEBT to fund their election.
I don’t think it would be a good use of DEBT personally. I don’t think the investment will pay off.
The CM has found another reason for Qlders to hate Rudd. Wait for it –
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,25483632-952,00.html
2388,
AHHHHHHHH …….. Confucius say you are a very very wise person.
Good on you 😀