Essential Research: 61-39

A narrowing trend in recent federal polling has come to an abrupt halt with this week’s Essential Research survey, which shows Labor’s lead blowing out from 57-43 to 61-39. Supplementary questions find the punters anticipating budget misery and loving it – twice as many (38 per cent to 19 per cent) expect it to be bad for them personally as expect it to be good, while 49 per cent want tax cuts deferred against 35 per cent who want them to proceed. In other news, most support the government’s changes to the emissions trading scheme and oppose the commitment of further troops to Afghanistan.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,495 comments on “Essential Research: 61-39”

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  1. Good article by Bernard Keane (how long before he gets poached by the bigs?)
    [As is now pro forma in Australian political debate, the immediate focus was on who missed out and the delay until 2011. The reactionaries at the Australian Family Association even lamented that stay-at-home mothers had been “dudded”, although they didn’t explain why people should get leave if they don’t have anything to be on leave from.

    Fair dinkum, the quality of policy debate in this country is pretty dire sometimes.]

    http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/05/11/structural-deficit-its-where-australias-at/

  2. [Is that the sound of wrists being slashed coming from Lib HQ?]

    They’d be saying a mantra/prayer: “next week’s newspoll, next week’s newspoll”

  3. [56% of Labor voters and 55% of Coalition voters approve of the recent Government announcement regarding change to the emissions trading scheme. 65% of Green voters disapprove of the Government’s announced changes to the emissions trading scheme.]

    ALP headquarters would love those numbers.

  4. Abolished federal seats (from memory):

    Bland, Canobolas, South Sydney, Illawarra, Lang, Parkes, East Sydney, West Sydney, South Sydney, Gwydir, Riverina, Darling, Barrier

    Northern Melbourne, Southern Melbourne, Bourke, Balaclava, Mernda, Moira, Echuca, Wimmera, Grampians, Corinella, Laanecoorie

    Oxley, Darling Downs

    Coolgardie (Kalgoorlie in 2010)

    Angas

    Wilmot, Darwin

  5. So most people support the government’s changes to the ETS.

    Of course they would. Everybody who votes knows that the Liberals are sceptics and nothing would ever happen on GW if they were elected, and that the Greens are loonies who would jeopardise jobs and the economy for an all or nothing CPRS.

  6. Centre @ 557 (previous thread),

    [
    Centre
    Posted Monday, May 11, 2009 at 6:33 pm | Permalink
    If the Nationals will not support any ETS, where will that leave Turnbull?

    Hanging by the ceiling in his undies in the Green Room of Parliament House LOL.
    ]

    Start the popcorn and sell the tickets 😀 ………

  7. [Of course they would. Everybody who votes knows that the Liberals are sceptics and nothing would ever happen on GW if they were elected, and that the Greens are loonies who would jeopardise jobs and the economy for an all or nothing CPRS.]

    Meanwhile the WA Libs want to increase emissions by reactivating old Coal fired Power Stations.

    [It will also enter into a public-private partnership for a $100 million refurbishment of the Muja A and B coalfire power stations.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/05/11/2567171.htm

  8. Budget prediction time.

    The “Horror” budget will not be as horrific as spun by the Govt.
    Malcolm Turnbull will regurgitate his press club speech on Thursday thus speeding his doomed leadership.

  9. [Malcolm Turnbull will regurgitate his press club speech on Thursday thus speeding his doomed leadership.]
    Yeah, I look forward to him proposing that the tax cuts should be brought forward by a month. 😀

  10. [Yeah, I look forward to him proposing that the tax cuts should be brought forward by a month.]

    I secretly hope he mentions the familiy of 7 in a Tarago.

    Sigh… I miss Brendan Nelson.

  11. Essential Research is almost as bad as Morgan.

    I only judge the polls based on Newspoll and Galaxy the rest are a joke.

    I wanna know who funds Essential Research??

  12. [I wanna know who funds Essential Research??]

    Somehow I doubt it would get a run on this site if it was a party political.

    Get a grip Glen. Factor in a slight bias if you wish, but if you want to get into them, talk methodology. Otherwise you’re half way to tin-foil hat talk.

  13. Look all im saying is the Rudd Government is slashing big ticket items and leaking the extent of the budger deficit and they got up 4% in the polls, it doesnt make sense!

  14. Glen as soon as your side realise that THEY not Rudd are the problem, they may make sustainable ground. I wonder how much of this 61% is padded by those that cant say they are voting for the coalition because they dont know what they’ll be voting for

  15. [Look all im saying is the Rudd Government is slashing big ticket items and leaking the extent of the budger deficit and they got up 4% in the polls, it doesnt make sense!]

    Er Glen it makes perfect sense, we are in the Great Recession, the Ruddster and Swannie have a plan, Turnbull and Hockey are off with the pixies.

    Never underestimate the electorate. 😉

  16. Rudd and Swan have no plan other than to put the Budget into deficit for 20+ years with no plan how to return to surplus.

    Why is this story sounding so familiar???

    Coalition run surplus’ then the ALP come in spend more than they can afford and we have to spend our first term slashing spending and reconstructing the economy to bring it back to surplus.

  17. [Look all im saying is the Rudd Government is slashing big ticket items and leaking the extent of the budger deficit and they got up 4% in the polls, it doesnt make sense!]
    It isn’t that surprising when you consider the Liberal’s alternate policy is tax cuts, which will produce a bigger budget deficit.

  18. Glen your side is doing so badly, to use Rugby League as an analogy, becuse they want to score a try on every single set of 6. I don’t think they were really any good in government but they are diabolical in opposition lol.

  19. [Coalition run surplus’ then the ALP come in spend more than they can afford and we have to spend our first term slashing spending and reconstructing the economy to bring it back to surplus.]
    Do you realise that the first surpluses in the history of the commonwealth were delivered when Paul Keating was treasurer?

    Was Paul Keating in the Labor or Liberal party?

    The reason we are going to have a 5% deficit was because Howard and Costello cut income taxes too much, and dramatically increased middle class welfare. Once company taxes dropped, an automatic structural deficit was created, irrespective of how much extra money Rudd has spent.

  20. Agreed BK, he seems to be getting worse and worse and is now unbearable. And Glen, no one is suggesting that the next election would be 61/39, there has NEVER been a result like that, but after showing some signs of dawning reality, you have reverted back to the just attack and oppose Labor mode which is NOT WORKING. Your side has to CHANGE, they cant just sit back and wait for government to fall in their laps. By the time the election comes around the economy would have improved, at any rate. And what exactly is your sides argument? That they wouldnt have stimulated the economy as much as perhaps lost more jobs and deepened the recession???

  21. What the voters see, Glen, is that we have a crisis for which Rudd is not responsible (your beloved US Republicans are responsible), and that Rudd has a plan to deal with it. All they hear from Turnbull is dishonesnt, inconsistent, populist nonsense (as you acknowledged yourself last week). That’s why they are sticking with Rudd. All the polls are showing this, with only a few minor variations.

  22. The figures for how long we’ll be in debt and by how much keeps creeping up.

    Now it’s 20+ years and 30% of GDP. Get a grip you Libs (this means YOU Glen). All negativity, all the time is why you’re languishing in the bilges of Opposition.

    Stop the indulgent doomsaying and the imaginary numbers and the worst case every time and you might get a hearing.

  23. Seeing both the polls and the sharemarket will keep sailing along taking the budget in their stride the best thing for the Liberals to do would be consider a change of Leadership. After all that is what they do best, and it brings them a week or two of good figures. There are plenty of backbenchers yet to claim a spot in history that could take a hit for the team.

  24. What is Rudd’s plan to return the budget to surplus Adam??

    Turnbull is a fool because he hasnt got any policies. I suspect if Brendan Nelson were still our leader we’d be below 55-45 probably 54-46 by now.

    Just remember people arent sticking with Rudd they think we are a bunch of duds.

  25. [Coalition run surplus’ then the ALP come in spend more than they can afford and we have to spend our first term slashing spending]

    gonna have to call a big bull on that one Glen.

    I guess you forget the mighty Fraser-Howard years…

  26. [Just remember people arent sticking with Rudd they think we are a bunch of duds]

    Twelve years of proof behind that theory, Glen.

  27. [Just remember people arent sticking with Rudd]

    So why the high satisfactIon rating?

    Actually scratch that: why the RECORD high satisfactIon rating??

  28. [What is Rudd’s plan to return the budget to surplus Adam??]
    Add means tests to government hand outs.

    Means test the 30% government hand out to the private health insurance industry.

    When the economy starts growing, use the additional tax revenues to pay down the debt.

  29. Grog they did have to clean up the mess Whitlam left.

    Mind you they did a bad job.

    Swan is too busy making stupid youtube videos instead of actually coming up with a good budget.

  30. ShowsOn I want Rudd to destroy the 30% rebate because it will give us Libs something to stand for. Rudd and Co will lose many votes if they try and reduce it.

  31. [Has ANY Opposition pollie yet acknowledged the structural deficiency with dwindling taxation receipts?]

    Nope, and I bet they’re under strict instructions not to.

    Just remember the entire deficit is the fault of the “cash splash”.

    Rinse, repeat ad nauseum.

  32. [Swan is too busy making stupid youtube videos instead of actually coming up with a good budget.]
    So what do YOU want out of the budget?

    You sound exactly like Turnbull, propose nothing, while pretending he could magically keep the budget in surplus, even though revenue will be down $200 billion over the next 3 years.

  33. [ShowsOn I want Rudd to destroy the 30% rebate because it will give us Libs something to stand for.]

    What is it you would be standing for?

    There’s a difference between standing for something and supporting something that is popular (or so ypu’ve been telling us for the last 18 months)

  34. Glen is seething at the polls! LOL!

    You mightnt think the polls make sense based on circumstances, good for you. I thought the polls didn’t make sense many times throughout Howard’s time too (however, the polls only generally got as good as 53-47 for the coalition – suffer in ya jocks 😉

    The constant huge gap in polls is also a resounding rejection of what your side stands for. Your party is now right-wing, not centre-right. Labor is centrist.

    The poll is valid, not so much the number but the swing. They all swung back a little to the coalition which Newspoll confirmed. Now ER is swinging back toward Labor a little. You’ll take the swing to your side but reject the swing away. Pffft.

    Don’t worry Glen. Your mob will get back in to power. Just give it 13 years like last time.

    HAH!

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