Essential Research: 61-39

A narrowing trend in recent federal polling has come to an abrupt halt with this week’s Essential Research survey, which shows Labor’s lead blowing out from 57-43 to 61-39. Supplementary questions find the punters anticipating budget misery and loving it – twice as many (38 per cent to 19 per cent) expect it to be bad for them personally as expect it to be good, while 49 per cent want tax cuts deferred against 35 per cent who want them to proceed. In other news, most support the government’s changes to the emissions trading scheme and oppose the commitment of further troops to Afghanistan.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,495 thoughts on “Essential Research: 61-39”

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  2. This budget had very little savings in it so i dont know why you’re making a big deal out of Hockey’s response!

    Well maybe because given the Libs have made such a scare about the deficit, we thought they might have some ideas on how to reduce it. Your side set up it’s own bar to get over Glen. Don’t blame us that they couldn’t do it.

  3. This budget had very little savings in it so i dont know why you’re making a big deal out of Hockey’s response!

    Typical Liberal – $14.5 billion over 4 years counts as “very little”.

  5. Not sure if this had been posted yet

    http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,25480753-462,00.html

    Economy responding to stimulus, experts say

    An unexpected jump in commercial lending commitments is evidence that business is responding to the federal government’s economic fiscal stimulus package although a definite trend is yet to emerge, economists say.

    The value of commercial lending commitments in March jumped by $5.187 billion or 20.5 per cent, in seasonally adjusted terms, to a five-month high of $30.498 billion, Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data today showed.

    The March figure compared with February’s fall of 14.7 per cent to a seasonally adjusted $25.053 billion.

    “In terms of commercial lending, it’s a bit choppy,” said CommSec chief equities economist Craig James.

    “We’d need to see a couple more numbers like these to get confident.

    “It could be that the tax break for business to take on new equipment could be providing a boost in the current environment.”

    In February, federal government announced a $2.7 billion small and general business tax break as part if its second, $42 billion government stimulus package.

    Commercial lending commitments each month since March last year have fluctuated between growth and contraction but on trend terms have been flat.

    “It’s the most volatile chart I’ve ever seen,” Forecast economist Michael Turner said.

    “We’ve been presuming that business can’t get access to credit or don’t want it, but today seems to suggest there is still some demand for business credit.

    “It’s slightly encouraging, but the six-month average of that is pretty flat.”

    The March 2009 data also showed that lease finance rose 1.3 per cent in March to $469 million, compared with $463 million in February.

    The value of housing finance for owner occupation rose 7.3 per cent to $15.731 billion in March from $14.656 billion in February.

    Total personal finance commitments fell 2.2 per cent in March, seasonally adjusted, to $6.284 billion, from $6.424 billion in February.

    “The drop in personal finance, we assume, is that people have been getting out of margin accounts for the last couple of years,” Mr Turner said.

  7. Glen, it was a complete dud from Turnball, all that buildup from the Liberals and their media mates, and the result: nothing of any substance, except arrogance, conceit, pomposity, and imperiousness(all Turnball traits).

  9. The atmospherics are always interesting.

    Tanner with a tie looked the authoritative figure. While Joe and Cousins in open necked shirts seemed in BBQ mode.

    Joe can be your mate down the pub. But do you want him in charge?

  11. Well, Andrew while none of you are being distracted by GP – NOT, why don’t you consider the fact that Turnbull, though wishing to swap the Health rebate for higher tobacco excise, is content to pass this budget through the senate, therefore giving the derficit his approval without any further cuts to expenditure. Exposes GPs argument that they haven’t had time to analyse the budget for what it is – garbage. Turnbull has stated he will pass the budget with the changes he has outlined – do all Liberal poiticians pass budgets that they do not understand or have not yet analysed?

    Tom

  12. “Tonight we’ve had the budget reply speech from Malcolm Turnbull, and the proposals he’s put forward in the budget reply would not reduce our deficit or our debt by one cent,” he said.

    “The only savings measure that he has put forward … is a tax increase.

    “So for all of their posturing and bluster about these things, not one serious saving, no plan, no strategy to tackle the jobs issue, no strategy to tackle the investing for the future of the nation issue.

    “All we had was this empty rhetoric and not one cent off debt or deficit.”

    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25485824-5005962,00.html

    And the bulk of the deficit is due to the contraction in taxation revenue.

    So please GP Glen and Bree, keep the confected outrage up, it’s most entertaining.

  16. Bit disappointed that Hockey couldn’t reproduce his historic Q&A ‘wayne or wendy’ triumph tonight.

    Hockey:

    You don’t know if you are Lindsay or Lindsay

  20. On QANDA it was mentioed Bishop has stated she opposes the proposed increase the price of cigarettes. So far nothing has appeared on any of the Net news services I visit. Has anyone seen it anywhere?

  21. I can only assume that Turnbull couldn’t put together a proper budget reply because they have nothing they all agree upon? Health, Education, Productivity, Infrastructure, even dog whistling on border defence, taxation reform…..could find nothing here to make a coherent strategy?

    I can only say thank God he isn’t PM is this it the extent of his abilities at a time of great need.

  22. No 2302

    Pretty simple, cut spending. The ALP is running the specious argument that it has “found” savings even though it has trebled spending to many times any accrued savings.

  23. Pretty simple, cut spending.

    This would make more people unemployed.

    The ALP is running the specious argument that it has “found” savings even though it has trebled spending to many times any accrued savings.

    It has found savings, because most of the infrastructure projects are ONE OFF and SHORT TERM. In contrast, means testing and reducing the indexation of family tax benefits, reducing the hand outs to the private health insurance industry, increasing taxes on alcopops, increasing the pension age to 67 are all LONG TERM savings that INCREASE as every year passes.

  25. This would make more people unemployed.

    No it won’t. The Liberal party savagely cut spending and the economy did not collapse as a result.

  26. Whats the bet labor start tagging turnbull as “Mr 75 cents”

    I don’t think they should do this. I think they should put a bill to parliament and wait for the Liberals to vote for it.

  27. No it won’t. The Liberal party savagely cut spending and the economy did not collapse as a result.

    That’s because the economy was in the process of EXPANDING then! It is now CONTRACTING.

  28. On QANDA it was mentioed Bishop has stated she opposes the proposed increase the price of cigarettes. So far nothing has appeared on any of the Net news services I visit. Has anyone seen it anywhere?

    Lateline had video of her getting in her car saying it was not a policy she supported

  29. Lateline had video of her getting in her car saying it was not a policy she supported

    Aren’t the Liberals great? They don’t just have dead wood back-benchers that don’t do anything, they ALSO have the sort that fire foot bullets at their leaders.

  31. Meanwhile, Robert Mugabe bans zimbabwe dollars from toilets:

    Last week he was telling North Korea to test more weapons. 😐

  33. The Coalition, Greens and Independents are lucky I am not the Leader of the Government. I would just offer that if they can together come up with a better budget than this within a month, that the Government would agree to pass it in both houses.

    With the wish list being offered by the above named now and the blockages proposed, it has almost reached the stage that government of the country has been hijacked by a bunch of destructive dills. Just have a look at this offering.

    THE Greens say the Budget is a missed opportunity and have vowed to try to change it in the Senate, while Steve Fielding said Labor had crushed the dreams of Australians.
    Greens leader Bob Brown, in his official reply to the Budget tonight, warned his party would not be rolling over for the Government.

    “We’re not here to be a rubber stamp and this Budget is far from perfect,” he told the Senate.

    Senator Brown will move an amendment to the Budget bills so that money saved from winding back the rebate for private health insurance goes to public hospitals.

    He supports the opposition’s push to increase the tax on cigarettes.

    He wants fast train links and cycleways built alongside major roads.

    Tax cuts for the rich should be scrapped, the Greens say.

    The unemployed and sole parents need an increase in payments.

    And Senator Brown says the coal industry should pay for new, cleaner technology, not taxpayers via a $2 billion Budget boost.

    “This Budget should be, but is not, a green new deal for Australia,” he said.

    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,25485668-5005962,00.html

  35. man oh man ….. MT’s reply must have really been bad as you guys are burning up the blog tonight 😀 ….. I’ve been out of the house for 5 1/2 hours, get the kids put to bed, washing out on the line, organized my fantasy footy teams for R8 and then settle down to the blog with a snack and find 12 pages of posts 😉 …..

    William, there are 23** post atm, what is your blog’s record for posts on ONE thread? Cheers 🙂

  36. And yet we see responses such as these which seem to be ignored by the so-called economic wizards.

    As financial markets and ratings agencies responded positively yesterday, debate focused on the Government’s assumptions underpinning its plan to take the budget from a $58 billion deficit in 2009-10 to a surplus by 2015-16.

    The Treasurer defended the Government’s optimistic projections of the return to surplus being powered by 4.5 per cent growth for two years and 4 per cent growth for another four years. “I don’t regard those projection figures … as being excessively optimistic. In fact I think they are reasonably conservative,” Mr Swan said.

    He disagreed with the International Monetary Fund’s assessment that recovery from the recession would be very slow and prolonged, saying he backed the view of his Treasury advisers.

    Credit ratings agencies endorsed the Government’s budget strategy, saying the rapid increase in government debt would not jeopardise Australia’s AAA credit rating.

    Standard & Poor’s credit analyst Kyran Curry said: “We believe that the strategy that the Government has articulated in the budget should be achieved over the medium term, given this party’s previous track record in adhering to fiscal conservatism when it has previously been in government.”

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25476873-601,00.html

  37. Hockeys effort on Q&A this evening was the worst I have ever seen so far on this program. No matter how badly people could bag him for this effort, it would still be too kind for him and he is the “alternate Treasurer” of the country. Wow! What a bitter disappointment he must be to all loyal Liberals.

  38. 1755 Frank,

    Unless you are in the media gallery, you can NOT get into QT with a mobile. You must check them at the window when you pick up your tickets. Been there and done that, saw QT about 6 times last year while we lived in Canberra. After the first two times, I gave up and left my mobile in the cars glove box so I didn’t have to backtrack to the counter to pick it up. And if you manage to sneak it in, they will find you if you try to use it. Security have eyes everywhere. One time I had my head down and was trying to do all I could to avoid looking at MT who was ranting on one day about something or other and I was asked to sit up and look straight as they didn’t want anyone in the gallery to look like they weren’t paying attention or sleeping or whatever. It wasn’t a good look if the camera happened to pan over that section of the gallery 😀

  39. No 2336

    It’s funny that the Government suddenly has faith in Standard & Poor when only months ago they failed to foresee the grand banking collapses that brought down the world’s economy. They also failed to adequately consider how leveraged institutions really were.

  40. Can’t say i’m too happy with this…

    Australia’s government is being accused of a massive breach of trust and security with almost a hundred other countries, after a secret list of bilateral negotiations was inadvertendly made public.

    Canberra admits its embarassed but is playing down the importance of the 58-page document. But there is sensitive information in the document, for example on legal arrangements to allow uranium sales to China, Australia-Indonesia defence negotiations, civil space tracking talks with Russia, the U-S and Europe .. and, ironically, the fact that talks with Indonesia and Malaysia on an agreement to protect classified information is on hold.

    There is now concern that Australia’s international relations could suffer.

    http://www.radioaustralia.net.au/asiapac/stories/200905/s2570865.htm

  41. Oz @ 1802,

    Oz
    Posted Thursday, May 14, 2009 at 7:02 pm | Permalink
    HAHA Malcom wants to increase cigarette taxes!!!!

    No alcopops tax but yes for cigarettes. This is funnier than any comedy show.

    The more unhealthy it is, the more he wants us to use it 😀 …… sorry MT, this Laborite isn’t buying ;-), give me the Bundy over the smokes any day 😉

  42. I would go further than Turnbull on the Tobacco tax. I would increase it by 12.5% as he suggests, AND ALSO index the increase to the C.P.I., so that every year it increases further.

  43. Drinking intoxicates someone. It can cause fights and assaults and even killings, it can kill people on the road. Smoking doesn’t.

    Turnbull is an idiot. For once I support Bronwyn Bishop. I wonder if others in the party will begin to speak up like they did with Nelson before they knifed him.

  44. On QANDA it was mentioed Bishop has stated she opposes the proposed increase the price of cigarettes. So far nothing has appeared on any of the Net news services I visit. Has anyone seen it anywhere?

    Yes it was on ABC, she said it as she was getting into a car. They really are a rabble.

  45. I support Turnbull’s policy, but the fact he thinks it should be done as a SUBSTITUTE for ending hand outs to the private health insurance sector suggests he is posturing, and actually not interested in improving health.

  46. Yes it was on ABC, she said it as she was getting into a car. They really are a rabble.

    I so hope the government introduces it. I want to see Bronnie vote for something she has just told the media she opposes.

  47. GP @ 2339,

    Totally agree about S&P’s. I can’t see that they have a shred of credibility left any more after their US fiasco.

  48. No 2340

    Just goes to show how incompetent Labor is. The leak of the conversation with George Bush now has much more credibility.

  49. The leak of the conversation with George Bush now has much more credibility.

    Bush got exactly what he deserved.

  50. No 2347

    The opposition should clearly be using this against the government but clearly Turnbull has no clue or has forgotten about it.

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