The first Roy Morgan face-to-face poll in a fortnight shows Labor’s two party lead down from 61-39 to 59-41. Labor’s primary vote is down 1.5 per cent to 50 per cent, while the Coalition’s is up 3 per cent to 36.5 per cent. Possum detects a negative correlation between Morgan’s sample sizes and Coalition primary vote. I would observe that there are two clusters of sample sizes, around 900 and 1800, depending on whether the poll was from one weekend of polling or two (the latter being the case on this occasion). Perhaps the correlation tells us something about how Morgan decides whether to sit on its results for another week (conspiracy theories ahoy).
Elsewhere:
• Tune in for live coverage tomorrow night as voters in three of Tasmania’s 15 Legislative Council districts go to the polls. Independent Ivan Dean, who was approached by John Howard to run in Bass at the 2004 federal election, faces a strong challenge from independent competitors in Windermere, which covers outer Launceston and the eastern side of the Tamar Valley. The retirement of independent Norma Jamieson has produced a tight four-horse race in the Devonport seat of Mersey, the field including Jamieson’s daughter Carolynn. Bartlett government Treasurer Michael Aird is unlikely to be troubled in his bid to keep Derwent (outer Hobart and Derwent Valley) as one of four upper house seats held by Labor. In the regrettably unlikely event that you wish to discuss this, please do so on the dedicated thread. Further reading from Peter Tucker at Tasmanian Politics. Further coverage tomorrow from Antony Green.
• Gary Clark, husband of former MP Jackie Kelly, has been found guilty for his role in the Lindsay pamphlet scandal. This was for the benign-sounding charge of “distributing unauthorised electoral material”, which carries a fine of $750. Former Liberal powerbroker Jeff Egan was acquitted, the court accepting his explanation that he was not aware of the content of the pamphlets. Not content with that, Egan has launched a private prosecution (presumably because his complaints have failed to interest the authorities) for assault against the Labor “possé” who caught the Liberal trio in their act, which includes Senator Steve Hutchins.
• Michelle Grattan of The Age reports that Josh Freydenberg has provided a formidable pair of referees in his application for the Liberals’ Kooyong preselection: John Howard and Andrew Peacock (the latter of whom held the seat from 1966 to 1994, in between Bob Menzies and Petro Georgiou).
• The Warrnambool Standard reports that Sarah Henderson, former host of The 7:30 Report and daughter of former state MP Ann Henderson, has entered the crowded field for the preselection in Corangamite. Others mentioned include former Kennett government minister Ian Smith; Graham Harris, head of the Liberals’ Corangamite electorate council; Victorian Farmers Federation president Simon Ramsay; “Internet expert and former Howard government adviser” Rod Nockles; Simon Price, unsuccessful Colac Otway Shire Council candidate and former electorate officer to Stewart McArthur; and Michael King, “Geelong businessman and owner of Kings Australia funeral services”.
• Peter Brent of Mumble comments on the audacity of Liberal Senator Michael Ronaldson expressing concern about the electoral roll in an excellent piece for Inside Story.
• After being reduced to the deadly third position on the Liberal ticket, conservative Tasmanian Senator Guy Barnett reportedly has his eyes on Bass, which Labor’s Jodie Campbell won from Michael Ferguson in 2007.
• If you thought Possum’s booth maps was dope, wait till you see Nathan Lambert’s Google Earth files.
So what are Obama’s targets anyway, Oz mentioned UK an EU but not USA?
[U.S. President Barack Obama’s administration will likely be eyeing Australia’s climate tactics as it prepares for its own Senate battle over creating a “cap-and-trade” law that would slash emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.]
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/05/04/AR2009050400567.html
There are many annoying electoral authority websites in the world (which is why I created my own), but the website of the Panama Electoral Tribunal is very nearly the worst.
Thomas Paine, above:
[Rudd could come out and say it wants to hand the Govt over to the Coalition and Turnbull would oppose it.]
That’s one of the funniest one-liners I’ve read in years. Made my day. ROTFL.
It had to come to this:
[Health Minister Nicola Roxon swine flu reaction is not overkill]
Rudd’s imcompetence: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25426831-601,00.html
and this:
[Govt won’t downgrade flu threat level]
[http://news.ninemsn.com.au/health/809530/govt-wont-downgrade-flu-threat-level]
Labor bungling mixed with fatality envy.
[but you couldn’t have read into my mind.]
nope will have to wait for the NBN till we’re able to do that on blogs.
He probably WOULD oppose it. He knows he doesn’t want to be in government at the moment because it’s all too DIFFICULT and he could not possibly cope with simultaneous economic and climatic crises so he is happy to leave it to Kevin to do all the hard work while he snipes from slidelines like the (rhymes with banker) he is.
Sorry for triple posting, but my point was that after a week of crisis and pandemic in the Press, they dare have the hide to accuse the government of going over the top.
They’re just disappointed that the only Aussies they could lumber with the Swine Flu were a few expats in London, who aren’t really all that sick, as it happens. Fair dinkum, if I was an emotional man, it’d bring a tear to my eye how Goddamn, desperately, bloody awful our media can be.
[ He knows he doesn’t want to be in government at the moment because it’s all too DIFFICULT ]
Well he didn’t exactly cover himself in glory while Minister…
Bernard Keane on why Turnbull has gone anti:
[The watering-down of the scheme leaves Turnbull with the choice of supporting the Government and publicly displaying the splits within his own Coalition, or maintaining his opposition on other grounds and playing to the Government’s portrayal of him as ideologically extreme and contrarian. The pre-emptive nature of the announcement also continues the peculiar Government obsession of not negotiating with the Coalition in the Senate, enabling it to persist with its strategy of claiming the Opposition is remorselessly negative. The Coalition is now in a very difficult position on the issue.]
he also makes a good point:
[There is still no additional assistance to the coal industry, but Climate Change Parliamentary Secretary Greg Combet, in an implicit rebuke to Minister Penny Wong, will be tasked with negotiating with the sector.]
Combet needs to be a Minister. Too much talent wasted at the minute.
http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/05/04/ets-changes-a-complete-surrender-to-the-big-polluters/
[Sorry for triple posting, but my point was that after a week of crisis and pandemic in the Press, they dare have the hide to accuse the government of going over the top.]
Ch 7 Perth had a story on passengers on a Garuda Flight being quarentined on arrival in Perth when a passenger complained of flu symptoms – with one passenger saying it was a joke that they quarentined the plane.
Oh and the London woman was complaining how SHE had to notify British Authorities.
vera
Both Fielding and Turnbull quoted Rudd’s “delay would be reckless and irresponsible” comment. I think we’ll be seeing it during the election.
Dec 2008 Press conference- “to delay any longer, to stay in denial as the climate change sceptics and some members opposite would have us do, is reckless and irresponsible”.
April 2009 Press conference- “we’re going to delay blah blah blah”
Finns, just reading some of todays comments. After reading 348, I think it was a bad idea to allow any of us to become Amigos if we prove that Diogs was wRONg.
At this rate you blokes will be runnunig out of telephone numbers lol. 😀
Diogenes, would you rather have a PM who says: “Last year I said I was going to do X, and even though the economy has gone into a nosedive since then and it would now be grossly irresponsible to do X, I’m going to do it anyway because I said I would and I’m too stiffnecked and stubborn to acknowledge that circumstances have changed.” Would you?
[Both Fielding and Turnbull quoted Rudd’s “delay would be reckless and irresponsible” comment. I think we’ll be seeing it during the election.]
Doubt it. What do they say with it?
[Rudd promised to introduce an ETS in 2010, he then changed it to 2011. We opposed the 2010 version and we opposed the 2011 version – when you want consistency vote Liberal – we’ll oppose everything.]
moving the ETS back to 2011 is hardly L.A.W. tax cuts.
Diogenes we might see some of that in the ad campaign against Rudd’s climate credentials to be released by the Greens before the next election 😉
[and even though the economy has gone into a nosedive since then and it would now be grossly irresponsible to do X,]
Why would it be grosely irresponsible for the scheme to start at a time when industry isn’t as active, and thus doesn’t need to buy as many credits (because they aren’t creating as much pollution). I think that is a GOOD time to start the system.
I also don’t understand why there will be an arbitrary price limit of $10 on carbon at the start, and unlimited number of permits, that defeats the purpose of MARKET based solution that sets the price of permits based on DEMAND.
Adam. From Bernard Keane’s article;
[The Government’s unambitious targets and generous handouts to big polluters and Penny Wong’s dreadful handling of key stakeholders has seen the Government lose its climate change advantage and appear as recalcitrant as the Howard Government on the issue.
It continues the remarkable string of victories big polluters have scored in neutering action on climate change, coming after last week’s exemption to the mandatory renewable energy target.
However, the Government will have regained control of the issue, which has always primarily been a political tool for it rather than a serious challenge to prevent climate change.]
I completely disagree that the reason the lamest CC policy in the world just got lamer is because of the GFC. It’s because Wong has completely stuffed up. He won’t replace her but the whole thing has been a disaster. The GFC is just being used as an excuse.
[Both Fielding and Turnbull quoted Rudd’s “delay would be reckless and irresponsible” comment. I think we’ll be seeing it during the election.]
Pffft. Then you’ll see footage of Malcolm repeatedly claiming it should be delayed till 2011, followed by footage of him still saying no after exactly that.
[I completely disagree that the reason the lamest CC policy in the world just got lamer is because of the GFC. It’s because Wong has completely stuffed up. He won’t replace her but the whole thing has been a disaster. The GFC is just being used as an excuse.]
Oh good grief…
These “big polluters” that Bernard is so Keane to demonise are in fact the industries that employ large numbers of blue collar Labor voters, and which also earn most of our export income and keep all of us in the affluent lifestyles to which we have become accustomed. They can’t just be made to walk the plank. As I have said before, trying to decarbonise the Australian economy was always going to be immensely difficult, and is now even more so because of the recession. Where’s your evidence that Wong has stuffed up?
[the lamest CC policy in the world ]
Good thing for the ALP they don’t have to beat the rest of the world at the next election, only a party that won’t even support this “lame” CC policy.
Has the EU just adjusted it’s CC targets because of the GFC? No.
Have they delayed them because of the GFC? No.
Do they have a GFC in Europe? Yes.
That’s because the EU’s ETS is a phony as everyone knows. They’ve given away so many permits that their market value is now zero.
Did anyone see this?
[Graham Morris, former chief of staff to John Howard, claims on Sky News that a Labor Senator (male) is considering resigning over this. ]
any ideas who?
Resigning over what? Morris is hardly a credible source when it comes to the ALP
[These “big polluters” that Bernard is so Keane to demonise are in fact the industries that employ large numbers of blue collar Labor voters, and which also earn most of our export income and keep all of us in the affluent lifestyles to which we have become accustomed.]
And they are same industries who have PROFITED from putting CO2-e into the atmosphere for decades, even though they have known for at least the last decade that eventually they would have to pay for the right to pollute.
[They can’t just be made to walk the plank. As I have said before, trying to decarbonise the Australian economy was always going to be immensely difficult, and is now even more so because of the recession.]
They weren’t being made to walk the plank! They were going to get 90% free permits up front, with that amount decreasing by just 1.3% a year. Now they have managed to get EVEN MORE permits for free, and have the automatic decrease removed!
[That figure in Essential Research re ’soft on asylum seekers’ is a worry. I had hoped we had grown up but obviously Malcolm’s nasty message cut through.]
But it didn’t translate into votes for the Libs. a 1% on and 1% off is within the MOE. Did it really get through? Does it really matter that much that it will change votes?
[Where’s your evidence that Wong has stuffed up?]
The fact that the mining industry seems to be writing her CC policies, which incidentally is literally what they did under Howard. Not much has changed.
Is this Senator alleged to be resigning because the CPRS goes too far, or because it doesn’t go far enough? There are members of Caucus who have very strong views in both directions.
[Where’s your evidence that Wong has stuffed up?
The fact that the mining industry seems to be writing her CC policies, which incidentally is literally what they did under Howard. Not much has changed.]
That’s not evidence. That’s just a restatement of your opinion.
[Is this Senator alleged to be resigning because the CPRS goes too far, or because it doesn’t go far enough?]
Well the changes today weaken it, so surely because it doesn’t go far enough.
The Government had a better plan yesterday.
[The fact that the mining industry seems to be writing her CC policies, which incidentally is literally what they did under Howard. Not much has changed.]
Except as I said previously you will see the CFMEU swing their support behind Turnbull Tasmanian style.
I know at least one Labor Senator who thinks the CPRS ought to be abandoned altogether unless and until there is a global agreement, because we will be committing national economic suicide by adopting it unliaterally, for no gain in stopping climate change. I don’t share that view, but it is a not uncommon one in the labour movement. So there could be dissidents in both directions. This is the situation Rudd has to manage.
[That’s just a restatement of your opinion.]
It’s a fact, get over it.
[Morris is hardly a credible source when it comes to the ALP]
Agred, and given I got the quote from a certain news.ltd shock blogger, I wouldn’t vouch for its accuracy.
[Except as I said previously you will see the CFMEU swing their support behind Turnbull Tasmanian style.]
We saw a rump of Greens arguing in the recent Queensland election for a closer alliance with the Tories too, Frank.
[you will see the CFMEU swing their support behind Turnbull Tasmanian style.]
Why, what is the policy that they would be supporting?
[Except as I said previously you will see the CFMEU swing their support behind Turnbull Tasmanian style.]
If they do this Labor should disaffiliate them immediately. Labor has compromised their position as far as necessary. if the AWU or CFMEU can’t accept the concessions the government has made, then they should be treated like climate change deniers.
The fact is simple, if we want to hit big targets down the track, SOME AWU and CFMEU will no longer work in their current jobs in a decade from how.
[you will see the CFMEU swing their support behind Turnbull]
No you won’t.
[Why, what is the policy that they would be supporting?]
The Turnbull policy – each year say that you’ll legislate for an ETS in the next year.
[I know at least one Labor Senator who thinks the CPRS ought to be abandoned altogether unless and until there is a global agreement, because we will be committing national economic suicide by adopting it unliaterally, for no gain in stopping climate change.]
So that Senator supports the Liberal “after you, no, after you, no after you” policy. S/he should be reminded that Australia has the most to lose from global warming.
[you will see the CFMEU swing their support behind Turnbull]
Good luck with that…
[It’s a fact, get over it]
hahahahahaha
[The Turnbull policy – each year say that you’ll legislate for an ETS in the next year.]
That’ll look good on an election banner. 😀
[S/he should be reminded that Australia has the most to lose from global warming.]
No doubt that is occurring. My point is that Rudd has a difficult task of party management here as well as extremely daunting objective circumstances. It’s no use saying Oh they can do it in Sweden or wherever. Apart from the fact that EU ETS is a fraud as I said, there is also the small fact that we, having (unlike the EU) renounced nuclear, are probably the most carbon-dependent of all developed economies. Rudd is trying to turn around a century of carbon-based industrialisation in a decade.
ShowsOn
Welcome to my world. I suggest you find a nice soft wall and pad it a bit more. You’re going to need it.
Oz @ 489
If there was a DD over the ETS, and Labor won, it could then have a joint sitting of both houses to pass it. Unless the Reps result was an absolute squeaker, Labor’s margin in the Reps would give it the numbers to do so. The Bill would have to be in the same form as the one that triggered the DD.
[Apart from the fact that EU ETS is a fraud as I said, there is also the small fact that we, having (unlike the EU) renounced nuclear, are probably the most carbon-dependent of all developed economies.]
My main point is that this is a wasted POLITICAL chance. The Government should’ve put the original plan to the floor of the senate, and forced the Liberals, Greens, Xenophon, Fielding to vote it down. That should’ve been the first step because they are the Government, if the initial draft legislation wasn’t closer to what they wanted, then why did they propose it? We already knew the world economy was screwed when the draft legislation was released, so I don’t buy that argument that circumstances have changed.
Your second point about nuclear is simple. Why didn’t Rudd put that issue into the mix, and tell the Left that they the Government would support say a 10% unconditional cut if they were willing to support removing the ban a domestic nuclear power industry? (Which of course would make a 10% cut easy to achieve)
[Welcome to my world. I suggest you find a nice soft wall and pad it a bit more. You’re going to need it.]
I just don’t like seeing this thing get compromised more and more. All it means is some SERIOUS pain 4 or 5 years from now when the price of carbon completely sky rockets in ONE year. How does THAT help business out, going from a restricted $10 carbon price, and an unlimited supply of permits to a system where the carbon price is driven by a market? How is THAT useful for them?
We can’t keep delaying this, especially considering that we don’t have the ability to use nuclear power, which is the easiest way to make huge cuts.
The EU recession is far worse than expected according to a French news agency.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20090504/bs_afp/eueurozoneeconomyrecession_20090504093716;_ylt=Agf4DTkcwk3ma6na2TOhjReFOrgF