Morgan: 59-41

The first Roy Morgan face-to-face poll in a fortnight shows Labor’s two party lead down from 61-39 to 59-41. Labor’s primary vote is down 1.5 per cent to 50 per cent, while the Coalition’s is up 3 per cent to 36.5 per cent. Possum detects a negative correlation between Morgan’s sample sizes and Coalition primary vote. I would observe that there are two clusters of sample sizes, around 900 and 1800, depending on whether the poll was from one weekend of polling or two (the latter being the case on this occasion). Perhaps the correlation tells us something about how Morgan decides whether to sit on its results for another week (conspiracy theories ahoy).

Elsewhere:

• Tune in for live coverage tomorrow night as voters in three of Tasmania’s 15 Legislative Council districts go to the polls. Independent Ivan Dean, who was approached by John Howard to run in Bass at the 2004 federal election, faces a strong challenge from independent competitors in Windermere, which covers outer Launceston and the eastern side of the Tamar Valley. The retirement of independent Norma Jamieson has produced a tight four-horse race in the Devonport seat of Mersey, the field including Jamieson’s daughter Carolynn. Bartlett government Treasurer Michael Aird is unlikely to be troubled in his bid to keep Derwent (outer Hobart and Derwent Valley) as one of four upper house seats held by Labor. In the regrettably unlikely event that you wish to discuss this, please do so on the dedicated thread. Further reading from Peter Tucker at Tasmanian Politics. Further coverage tomorrow from Antony Green.

• Gary Clark, husband of former MP Jackie Kelly, has been found guilty for his role in the Lindsay pamphlet scandal. This was for the benign-sounding charge of “distributing unauthorised electoral material”, which carries a fine of $750. Former Liberal powerbroker Jeff Egan was acquitted, the court accepting his explanation that he was not aware of the content of the pamphlets. Not content with that, Egan has launched a private prosecution (presumably because his complaints have failed to interest the authorities) for assault against the Labor “possé” who caught the Liberal trio in their act, which includes Senator Steve Hutchins.

• Michelle Grattan of The Age reports that Josh Freydenberg has provided a formidable pair of referees in his application for the Liberals’ Kooyong preselection: John Howard and Andrew Peacock (the latter of whom held the seat from 1966 to 1994, in between Bob Menzies and Petro Georgiou).

• The Warrnambool Standard reports that Sarah Henderson, former host of The 7:30 Report and daughter of former state MP Ann Henderson, has entered the crowded field for the preselection in Corangamite. Others mentioned include former Kennett government minister Ian Smith; Graham Harris, head of the Liberals’ Corangamite electorate council; Victorian Farmers Federation president Simon Ramsay; “Internet expert and former Howard government adviser” Rod Nockles; Simon Price, unsuccessful Colac Otway Shire Council candidate and former electorate officer to Stewart McArthur; and Michael King, “Geelong businessman and owner of Kings Australia funeral services”.

• Peter Brent of Mumble comments on the audacity of Liberal Senator Michael Ronaldson expressing concern about the electoral roll in an excellent piece for Inside Story.

• After being reduced to the deadly third position on the Liberal ticket, conservative Tasmanian Senator Guy Barnett reportedly has his eyes on Bass, which Labor’s Jodie Campbell won from Michael Ferguson in 2007.

• If you thought Possum’s booth maps was dope, wait till you see Nathan Lambert’s Google Earth files.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

567 comments on “Morgan: 59-41”

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  1. [It’s getting bad when even Fielding can point out your failings as a flip-flopper who has trouble sticking to your policy.]

    As GB said, four months ago the GFC wasn’t as bad as it is now

  2. Diog’s Daily wRONg Watch:

    [1. #333 – Hmmm. Not sure what happened there. Bloody public service computers.

    2. #443 – Diogenes, you were W’ron’G.]

    Serve you right for bludging on the public. get your own computer and the way you’re going, we will have more amigos than the Mexicans.

  3. Rudd’s change of position confirms what I have been suggesting for some time, his goal was to negotiate “down” with the coalition.

    Given that he’s started off low and gone lower, it looks unlikely that he’ll address the concerns of The Greens and thus they will not pass it.

    So it’s up to Turnbull. Doesn’t look like he’s going to pass it. If he doesn’t then this becomes an election issue at the next election. At the next election, I don’t think Labor can back flip again and argue for something else (closer to The Greens). So even if The Greens do win the balance of power it doesn’t look likely that the government’s going to negotiate with them. This is possibly the very “best” ETS Australia will get.

  4. I love how the same people who lambasted Turnbull so recently are now applauded Rudd for capitulating to him and doing what he asked!

  6. [I love how the same people who lambasted Turnbull so recently are now applauded Rudd for capitulating to him and doing what he asked!]

    It’s called good politiking. Something that Turnbull still has to learn.

    😆

  7. [the way you’re going, we will have more amigos than the Mexicans.]

    Yeah, they seem to be losing numbers due to the flu!

  9. [I love how the same people who lambasted Turnbull so recently are now applauded Rudd for capitulating to him and doing what he asked!]
    I’m not. This is a mistake by the Government. They should’ve put through the legislation as is (well, except for some minor amendments) and actually let it go to a vote before proposing any major changes like they have today.

    Even if it was blocked, the government could still say “we tried”.

  12. The Greens are no better than Turnbull. They demanded 40% targets or they’d block and Rudd has put them in their place (back at the bottom of the garden with the fairies) 😀 fair dinkum you’d swear they think they are the Govt and Rudd is on this earth only to appease them.

  13. From the submissions on the NSW redistribution:

    Rob Oakeshott, MP for Lyne, wants the name of the electorate changed. Not least because it sounds too much like “Lyons” and has apparently caused parliamentary confusion.

  14. [fair dinkum you’d swear they think they are the Govt and Rudd is on this earth only to appease them.]

    You’d swear Rudd thought they weren’t elected on their own policy platform…

  15. Not widely reported. Just wondering why? Thumb up for the Ruddster:

    [Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Social Justice Commissioner Tom Calma says there has been a renewal of optimism in Indigenous affairs. The Commissioner has launched this year’s Social Justice and Native Title reports.

    Mr Calma says since last year’s apology, there have been some improvements, including the formal endorsement of the UN declaration on the rights of Indigenous peoples, and the establishment of a national healing body. He says Australia is also well on the way to a new body to replace ATSIC. ]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/05/04/2560133.htm?section=justin

  16. [Rob Oakeshott, MP for Lyne, wants the name of the electorate changed. Not least because it sounds too much like “Lyons” and has apparently caused parliamentary confusion.]
    It should be renamed “Andren”.

  17. No matter where you stand on the political podium, you will find some very interesting analysis by Aristotle, here on the relationship to the leader’s standing on issued to the party position.

    Going by this, Turnbull has an uphill battle ahead of him. Warning, the post is fairly long but well worth the read and bookmarking.

    [Previously, we were examining how the principles of branding and brand management apply to politics. So I thought it would be worthwhile to investigate how the brand of a leader interacts with the brand of their party. Which is more important? Does the brand of the party influence the brand of the leader? Or does the leader’s brand influence the brand of the party? Before we venture into this twilight zone – a little revision.

    Brands only exist in our minds; they are not tangible items, they are merely our perceptions based on our experiences.

    For twenty years, Newspoll has been asking voters to indicate which party they believe is more capable of handling a variety of issues. Importantly, since 2005, they have also asked voters which leader they believe is more capable of handling five of those issues, namely – the economy, education, health and medicare, national security and the environment. The leaders researched were – John Howard, Kim Beazley, Kevin Rudd, Brendan Nelson and Malcolm Turnbull. When we examine the responses together, we can see how voters perceive the parties and how this compares to how they see the leaders.

    The conclusions are clear and stark. Whilst the brand of the party and the brand of the leader are inter-related, it is the brand of the leader which dominates in the mind of the voter. The analysis of the Newspoll data shows that the ALP under Kim Beazley would have struggled to defeat the Coalition under John Howard in the 2007 election. It also shows that it was John Howard who prevented the Coalition from being wiped out at that election. Significantly, it also explains why Brendan Nelson and Malcolm Turnbull have struggled against Kevin Rudd and why Peter Costello would fare little better.]

    http://www.ozforums.com.au/viewtopic.php?id=5417

  18. Adam:

    To think Thatcher will get a state funeral – she definately made it “grim Oop North”

  19. [He says education is the key, and is calling for urgent action especially in remote areas.]

    Well Calma got that bit right, until the education in remote areas picks up nothing much else can change.

  20. [It should be renamed “Andren”.]

    What did Andren have to do with Lyne?

    Oakeshott’s suggestions are “Pacific Coast”, “Innes”, “Many Rivers” and “Biripai”.

  21. I have just logged in and have not read any of the comments so far today. Rudd had no choice but to stall the introduction of the CPRS. Last week a couple of the big banks reported to the market. The ANZ results especially were alarming. The stock fell some 7%. The media has intentionally zipped up since not to talk the economy down. The fact is that this recession is now hitting harder than expected and the real economy is yet to feel the full brunt of it. When the CPRS is finally introduced we will be in a stronger position to adapt to it.

    Increasing the target to a potential 25% should make the Greens happy and therefore they should now pass the bill. But let’s face facts, if the rest of the world don’t increase their targets in unison, it would be LUNACY for us to do so!

  23. The Italian Job continues:

    [Furious Berlusconi demands apology from wife – Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi demands an apology from his wife after her public complaints over his roving eye, and admits their stormy marriage appeared to be heading for divorce.

    “Veronica must apologise publicly,” Mr Berlusconi told the Corriere della Sera as he went on the offensive in the couple’s media-fuelled row.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/05/04/2560583.htm?section=justin

    Just imagine how long Rudd would last if this happens with Therese.

  24. [Even if it was blocked, the government could still say “we tried”.]

    They still can can’t they?

    It;s still going to be introduced into the parliament this year isn’t it?

  25. [As GB said, four months ago the GFC wasn’t as bad as it is now]

    That is so lame. We’re almost exactly where we were expecting to be. The GFC is running a fairly predictable course.

    Adam

    I said Turnbull would agree to pass the Mark II ETS and although I’m not wRONg yet, it’s not looking very promising. What really gets me is not that I was wrong but that my error was in not being cynical enough about a Liberal politician. I won’t be making that mistake again for a long time. 👿

  26. [What really gets me is not that I was wrong but that my error was in not being cynical enough about a Liberal politician.]

    Diogenes, does that mean we can expect a bounce in Turnbull’s ratings in the next Newspoll based on his refugee dogwhistling over the past couple of weeks?

  28. [That is so lame. We’re almost exactly where we were expecting to be. The GFC is running a fairly predictable course.]

    Bulldust

  29. 477 Vera,

    GOODIE 😀 …………… QT is back, it is always a long, lean haul without much going on to get all the way from the end of summer parliament session to the Budget one in May ….

  30. The unbelievable thing is that Turnbull could have declared victory on this and made it sound like he was the real author of the plan. Instead he comes out YET AGAIN on DAY ONE and says
    [On the basis of what we’ve seen today, no we wouldn’t support it]

    Why does he need to go anti straight away??? Did this guy have a policitical nous bypass in an earlier life?

  32. [Grog, it’s going to be introduced into parliment next week according to Brissleton on 7.30 report]

    Cheers just caught that bit.

    Kerry asking the DD question. Wong gives the straight bat answer.

  35. [Why does he need to go anti straight away??? Did this guy have a policitical nous bypass in an earlier life?]

    Quite clearly his party doesn’t want an ETS under any circumstances, and have told him so. He’s screwed.

  37. [That is so lame. We’re almost exactly where we were expecting to be. The GFC is running a fairly predictable course.]

    I thought Treasury was predicting above trend growth by the end of 2010 anyway.

  38. [We’re almost exactly where we were expecting to be. The GFC is running a fairly predictable course.]

    No Diogenes sadly that’s not true. Things are looking more alarming every day, and I have had reluctantly to agree that GFC+CPRS+2010=CFD*
    *complete freakin’ disaster (NOTE: Previous phrase neutered by editor to ensure compliance with article 2 of comment moderation guidelines – The Management).

  39. So if there’s a DD, or this isn’t passed by the next election, you’ll have Turnbull with no policy (or at least no credibility on the issue) Rudd with his 5-15-25% and The Greens with 24-40%.

    You’d have to say the most likely situation is still a Rudd win with a Green balance of power. And since it’s very unlikely Rudd would go completely the other way just after being elected on a different policy, and if Turnbull still didn’t pass we wouldn’t get anything.

    But depending on the timing of the election you’d have Copenhagen as well and whatever that throws up. At this stage (and most likely) we’ll still be arguing for lower cuts than Europe.

    Is that a situation anyone here supports? The EU officially says “We will go up to 30%” but the UK says 42% and we say “No, go back down the 25%”.

  40. [No Diogenes sadly that’s not true. Things are looking more alarming every day, and I have had reluctantly to agree that GFC+CPRS+2010=CFD*]

    So Treasury and Swan are wrong?

    This is what I meant at #454 btw. lololol.

  41. Oz, unemployment should get to 8.5% in 12 months (an election year). They are doing the right thing by delaying it. 😉

    Btw, Turnbull is so ROYALLY WEDGED! lol

  42. vera

    Here’s Turnbull saying the same thing. And they’re just quoting Rudd, whose own words are coming back to haunt him. A bit like Climate Change being “the greatest moral challenge of our generation.”

    [Opposition leader Malcolm Turnbull said the Prime Minister had made a “humiliating back down”.

    “Only a few months ago Mr Rudd said that any delay in the start of his emissions trading scheme would be reckless and irresponsible both for the economy and the environment,” he said.]

  43. Grog, i realize that 😀 ….. but you couldn’t have read into my mind. I saw Vera’s post where she said ” …. next week …. ” and I said ” QT is back ” where perhaps what I should have said is ” …… QT is back next week ….. ” instead of leaving that part unspoken and assumed (as you didn’t make that assumption). 😉

  45. [What did Andren have to do with Lyne?]
    Nothing, but he is a well respected rural independent who received huge support.

    Kind of like Oakeshott

  46. Adam

    [GFC+CPRS+2010=CFD]

    I completely agree but that was not my point. I was saying that the GFC looks very much the same as it looked 4 months ago. It wasn’t pretty then and it’s not now. We were always going to get three years of pain.

  47. Doigenes
    I’m a bit confused here (that could be my new head, Finns did warn me)
    So you are saying you didn’t quote Fielding, but are now quoting Turnbull quoting Fielding quoting Rudd?

  49. [I completely agree but that was not my point. I was saying that the GFC looks very much the same as it looked 4 months ago.]

    Again, bulldust

  50. [a well respected rural independent who received huge support.]

    So was Sir William Lyne. It was he who called out “Judas! Judas! Judas!” at the top of his voice in the House when Alfred Deakin did his dirty deal with George Reid in 1909. This enabled Billy Hughes to come back with the immortal line, “No, that is unfair to Judas, who did not fail to hang himself afterwards.” Lyne should keep his electorate.

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