Newspoll: 56-44

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead steady at 56-44. Kevin Rudd’s preferred prime minister rating is up four points to 65 per cent, and Malcolm Turnbull’s is down one to 21 per cent. More to follow.

Also today was the latest weekly Essential Research survey, which has the Labor lead widening from 58-42 to 60-40. Also featured: “how important are the following issues in deciding how you would vote at a Federal election?” which party do you think best at handling them; the global financial crisis; climate change; and a broad-brush question on “independent Senators and government legislation”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,740 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44”

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  1. As I posted the link before…the mysterious missing Heiner were not destroyed but were found and this was reported in The Australian. So they tried to accuse Rudd of advising the Qld Govt (I would assume that would be AG’s role?) that they could destroy these files? When they were not destroyed.

  2. Funnily enough,I belive the libs problems rest with one JWH

    If he had truly left the building, a process of renewal would begin

    I am more and more convinced that Howard is still calling the tune

  5. Oz @ 44
    I was talking about the Latham election (read the post), where the media focussed for a considerable time during the campaign on where the Greens preferences would go, with feature stories on Brown taking Latham down to the Tasmanian rainforests and breathless commentary about what would be in the deal that Labor struck with the Greens and whether Howard would match it.
    As I said, I did straw polling at the time that showed that this entrenched in the minds of environmentally aware voters that Tasmanian forests were the big environmental issue. I remember being shattered at the extent of this belief, founded -as I said in my post – on Brown’s actions, because it made it so much harder for those of us pushing cc as the issue.

  6. BTW, why do Greens insist on putting BB up as some kind of idol? I accept that Rudd isn’t all I’d like him to be, that Brumby could be more personable, etc etc and don’t feel petulant when people criticise them fairly.
    But BB – who does the ‘I didn’t want to be a politician, it’s a burden I’ve got to bear in order to get things done’ line, is apparently beyond reproach.

  7. [But BB – who does the ‘I didn’t want to be a politician, it’s a burden I’ve got to bear in order to get things done’ line, is apparently beyond reproach.]

    Ah BB the ralph nader of Oz politics

    zoom, also in a funny way the greens have set themselves up as the conscience of the people.

    Not that I disagree with a lot of what they say
    🙂

  8. WHAT! On Lateline they said U.K. economists are worried that the U.K. “maybe headed for deflation” (which I guess means it MAY NOT be as well), but LAST week U.K. economists were worried that the Bank of England taking the Zimbabwe option to print money would lead to INFLATION!

    They can’t even hold their opinions for a week?

  9. [zoom, also in a funny way the greens have set themselves up as the conscience of the people.]

    Well the same can be said about the Late Don Chipp and the Democrats before Meg Lees got seduced by Howard over the GST.

  11. There is still plenty of evidence left around to prosecute Rudd over Heiner. We just have to find it before Rudd shreds more of it. Rudd could actually be prosecuted for one count of crimes against humanity and another for perverting the course of justice.

  12. Neither do I, gus, and I’ve already indicated that I’m not happy with Labor’s response to cc…and was with BB all the way when it came to the Franklin.

  13. Frank
    Me Da worked for Chipp (when chip was Customs and Excise Min) and said he was a highly principled person.
    Keep the bastards honest was not a hollow refrain for the times, and as you correctly pointed out meg stuffed it by being blindsided by Howard

    the dems died cos they lied

    the greens better remember that mantra or they will follow the same path once BB leaves the scene

  14. Bree, don’t hold back. They have lawyers nowadays who will run a case on a ‘no win no fee’ basis, so if you’ve got the evidence, go for it.
    If you’re not prepared to, please explain why not.

  15. Bree, send your concerns to Christian Porter, he enjoiys conducting witchhunts based on populist causes whipped up by Police Unions and Shock Joks 🙂

  16. [Rudd could actually be prosecuted for one count of crimes against humanity and another for perverting the course of justice.]
    And another for showering in milk
    And another for bathing in jelly
    And another for murdering an angel
    And another for shredding a shredder
    And another for manslaughter against the flying spaghetti monster
    And another for committing fraud against an invisible pink unicorn

  19. Actually, I like the unintended humour of ‘there’s plenty of evidence around…we just have to find it…’
    The truth is out there!!

  20. Hmm, GP, Glen and doveif haven’t been heard of since the Qld Election result – Have they banned email use from Liberal HQ as punishment ? 🙂

  21. [And another for showering in milk
    And another for bathing in jelly
    And another for murdering an angel
    And another for shredding a shredder
    And another for manslaughter against the flying spaghetti monster
    And another for committing fraud against an invisible pink unicorn ]

    Have you sent that list to Piers ???
    🙂

    [Bree, it’s taken me too long, but I’ve finally arrived at the conclusion that you’re too stupid to post here. ]

    I thought Bree raised the IQ level here
    😉

  22. Long time reader, first time bludger. 🙂

    Is Bree serious??? It’s like reading the majority of comments displayed on the Hun or Terror.

  23. 65% of voters oppose the Government sending MORE troops to Afghanistan. 28% support more troops:
    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25232849-601,00.html
    [Newspoll found 65 per cent of voters were against sending more troops if the Obama administration made a formal request.

    A total of 42 per cent of those polled were strongly against and 23 per cent somewhat against. Of the 28 per cent in favour of sending more troops, 12 per cent were strongly in favour and 16 per cent somewhat in favour.

    Women (74 per cent) easily outnumbered men (55 per cent) in opposing troop reinforcements.

    Labor voters were also more inclined to oppose troop increases, with 65 per cent against compared with 55 per cent for Coalition supporters.

    In a Newspoll conducted in 2001, 66 per cent of voters were in favour of sending troops to war in Afghanistan compared with 27 per cent against. ]

  24. I just noticed on my Set top box program guide that on the 30th of March SBS are repeating A Hidden History of Homos*xual Australia which features our own Adam In Camberra, who gives us an academic view on the subject 🙂

    [The journalist Adam Carr, researching the history of people brought before courts in these early years, says he expected to find lots of harsh sentences for such offences. In fact, he found very few. S*domy convictions were routinely commuted. The film suggests, somewhat tentatively, that life in the 19th century may have been easier for homosexuals than one might think. It argues that things certainly deteriorated in the 20th century before they improved.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/Reviews/The-Hidden-History-of-Homosexual-Australia/2005/03/09/1110316087915.html

  26. The WestAus gives Fielding an unrestrained shellacking. I guess WA Labor will enjoy the rest.

    [If the alcopops debacle is Senator Fielding’s way of making the Government take him more seriously, it’s failed. The episode has only confirmed to Government he is an inconsistent amateur who is out of his depth and a man whose actions often defy the rhetoric.

    His decision last week to vote down Labor’s electoral reform which would have lowered the political donation disclosure threshold to $1000 was tremendously perplexing given he had attacked the Howard government for increasing the threshold to $10,000 in 2006.]

    http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuID=9&ContentID=131376

  27. William @ 54

    I had a look through the links you provided to Bolt’s Blog and it seems to me that he is very clear about his position on the Heiner Affair. Bolt wants absolutely nothing to do with it. Is this your reading?

  28. Well, normally I am all for diversity, but Bree was a bit too diverse for my tastes so I usually just skipped the posts.

  29. Is Andrew Probyn one of ours, or just a hired gun from over east like Gerard Henderson (who also gets frequent columns in the West)? I googled him and he seems to turn up in a few papers.

    In any case, any good news for WA Labor is strictly federal for now, unless any MP’s in marginal Liberal seats decide they want to resign for some reason. Labor oughta win a few seats over here in 2010, especially if they get MacTiernan running.

  30. Andrew is a old mate of mine from community radio in Melbourne’s west. He’s Labor through and through but I expect when you are as close to politicians as he then you can’t help but notice bad smells coming from all quarters.

  31. [GIRLS as young as 13 born with foetal alcohol syndrome are now having their own syndrome babies in the troubled Western Australian town of Halls Creek Owners of Halls Creek’s two licensed premises are finalising formal objections to Mr Sargeant’s plan to ban full-strength takeaway alcohol in the town, and they have the backing of the Australian Hotels Association.]

    I hope comment is being sought from Fielding and Turnbull.

    http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25233283-1245,00.html

  33. [Trying to blame the Opposition and Fielding for everything bad that happens due to alcohol is ridiculous]

    I don’t think anyone is blaming them for everything that happens with alcohol. However, with alcohol and young girls, as per the story, they certainly have a bit of explaining to do. Their vote in the Senate was, in effect, for lower-priced alcopops, a product with a demonstrated massive appeal to just that demographic.

  35. Trying to blame the Opposition and Fielding for everything bad that happens due to alcohol is ridiculous.

    Yes, but they did set themselves up for it, and this is politics.

  36. [But BB – who does the ‘I didn’t want to be a politician, it’s a burden I’ve got to bear in order to get things done’ line, is apparently beyond reproach.]

    What a pathetic strawman.

  38. William there are a lot of people who think like bree and Howard attracted them to the Liberal party. If your trying to understand Australian Politics today you have to understand the bree’s of the world.

    My view ( worth nothing I know): The labor party has it’s ratbags under control and there is something the Labor party does that attracts bright people.

    The greens seem to be getting there act together as an opposition, they have moved to treating politics as the art of getting the achievable (I think zoomster has pretty much hit the nail on the head when it comes to their past).

    The Liberals have a serious power vacuum and they are not attracting bright people. Bree is probable a member and gets a vote, why would a sane person put themselves through it.

  39. [Bree, it’s taken me too long, but I’ve finally arrived at the conclusion that you’re too stupid to post here.]

    William is this a simple comment, or have you taken steps to remove the stupidity of Bree?

    [No 68

    I concur.]

    When GP is on your side, you know the jig is up.

  41. Maybe the Liberals should change their parliamentary tactics? I get the sense that the Australian public doesn’t approve of an opposition blocking key government measures in the Senate.

  43. The Essential Research poll would be comforting to the Labor supporters here. As an issue, CC has died. It rated second lowest in importance (which is about where Rudd thinks it should be 😉 ). And Labor had a 25% margin over the Libs as good CC managers so there really is no political reason for them to change their approach to CC, unless opinions change.

    The posters here, myself included, are in the minority is our vehement criticisms of Rudd’s approach to CC. It doesn’t mean we are wrong (I’m never wrong so that’s a given), but it does mean we are unlikely to win.

  44. fredn, isn’t possible to understand the dark place under rocks and mushrooms 😀 ….

    [
    why would a sane person put themselves through it.
    ]

    EXACTLY 😉 …. the people with any modicum of sense aren’t supporting the Libs.

  45. [The Liberals have a serious power vacuum and they are not attracting bright people.]

    It seems to be becoming a magnet for all the right-wing kooks out there. Free market cranks, religious fundamentalists, climate deniers, neo-fascist nutters. At this rate it is heading for fringe party status.

  46. Thanks for the article Castle. A copy is going straight to Fieldings office. I will be sending every alcohol related death/ injury to his office from here on.

  48. We’ve been talking about nuclear as a possible solution to CC here. We’ve talked about the new Integral Fast Reactors, which have much less waste and use uranium very efficiently, meaning we have enough uranium to last for thousands of years. This site offers you a variety of ways of finding out more about IFRs, either looking at a book, an article, a blog post or several radio interviews. There’s plenty of food for thought there.

    Labor’s blanket no uranium policy is starting to look very short-sighted. I wonder if they ever change their opinions when the information changes (they probably just avoid new ideas so they can stay in their comfort zone).

    I’m not saying we should have IFRs but we should at least consider them.

    http://bravenewclimate.com/2009/03/22/fast-reactor-radio/

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