Newspoll: 56-44

The Australian reports the latest Newspoll has Labor’s two-party lead steady at 56-44. Kevin Rudd’s preferred prime minister rating is up four points to 65 per cent, and Malcolm Turnbull’s is down one to 21 per cent. More to follow.

Also today was the latest weekly Essential Research survey, which has the Labor lead widening from 58-42 to 60-40. Also featured: “how important are the following issues in deciding how you would vote at a Federal election?” which party do you think best at handling them; the global financial crisis; climate change; and a broad-brush question on “independent Senators and government legislation”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,740 comments on “Newspoll: 56-44”

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  1. LOL! I just got an angry phone call from my sister who has to testify to the Senate committee on the CPRS tomorrow. She is pissed off that she only had two weeks to prepare.

    The Government can’t seem to please anyone on that policy.

  3. The Libs have to asking themselves how long they can stick with Turnbull after the debacle in parliament last week, and the polls staying so bad for so long. They need to either dump Tuenbull and give Costello a run, or convince Costello to leave the Parliament so that Turnbull can have a fair go.

    Anyone remember what Nelsons lowest PPM numbers were??

  4. Lateline concentrating on Aboriginal communities in regards to drinking, another racist article from them. These problems effect all communities in this country and not just Aboriginal communities.

    ACTU wants a pay rise and the government should allow it. To get out of this mess the country needs more demand. Demand is going no where… more money is needed in the economy not less.

  5. It really doesn’t matter what they do just now. The Liberal brand is utterly busted and will stay that way unless and until the voters lose their confidence that Rudd is trying his best to protect them from the Great Recession. I doubt that will be at least for another year. I can’t see why Costello would want to take over the leadership this year.

  6. imacca, i think from memory Nelson did reach 17 PPM at one part, well looks like the honeymoon is well and truly over and we’ve settled into a comfortable co-existence as the chores are finally sorted out. 🙂

  8. Yes, but is Malcolm Turnbull’s head going to explode on national t.v. as he finally realises he’ll never, ever, ever, be P.M.?

  10. [imacca, i think from memory Nelson did reach 17 PPM at one part, well looks like the honeymoon is well and truly over and we’ve settled into a comfortable co-existence as the chores are finally sorted out.]
    I think the low was 9% and his high was 18% the week that he was sacked.

    I believe 20% is the lowest Turnbull has been.

  11. From the previous thread, zoomster, I’ll have a think about those differential responses you were referring to, and see if there’s anything sensible I can contribute.

  12. I agree with Adam @5 that the Libs are busted, but surely they have to be able to show some potential to rebuild?? And what with Cossie?? If he does hang around on the backbench as an inherently destabilizing influence into the 2010 election and the Libs lose, maybe with the ALP increasing their majority in the HoR, and the Greens taking the Balance of Power in the Senate then he will be even less electable then than he is now!

    A gutless twit, who, when his ambitions to have the Prime Minister-ship of the country handed to him on a platter were thwarted, then went flat out to screw over his own party and by extension those who vote or that party. This is not PM material, especially compared to the depth of talent on the current ALP front bench.

    I cannot understand why the Libs are not clamoring for Costello to go. thye can get un-busted with him there.

  14. A lesson for the thick heads in the Labor backrooms who make deals with twits in regards to preference flows, look at how the Greens have conducted themselves in regards to the legislation.. Maybe the dills will get it…

  15. Marky @9

    Rudd falls under a bus, Julia takes over and crucifies whoever the libs care to put up against her. You’d wish that on a poor, defenseless, Liberal member of parliament?? Cruel.

  16. The figure that will torment Mr Turnbull will be Mr Rudd’s PPM 65%

    How dare just about everybody believe Rudd would be the better PM! Will this mean Mr Turnbull’s rants will go into over drive? Will we get more ‘deeply flawed’, ‘ruined’, ‘destroy’, ‘incompetent’, ‘mishandling’ comments? Maybe they should realise that name calling isn’t really a policy.

    People simply cannot take to Turnbull, they see the guy, listen to what he says and the way he says it and it leaves them cold, so far. The problem they have is Hockey is also just a ranter.

    Rudd might waffle but he doesn’t rant, Gillard is precise, Tanner good at making a point, Swan steady and sticks to a message, and the rest can also speak clear sense without the ranting and raving.

    65% is Rudd’s best score since the December outlier and comes just before his meeting with Obama. That 65% sounds ominous to me.

    So the obvious thing that will happen in the MSM is the search for angles to undermine Rudd/Obama, to make sure it isn’t a positive for Rudd.

  17. [If he does hang around on the backbench as an inherently destabilizing influence into the 2010 election and the Libs lose, maybe with the ALP increasing their majority in the HoR]
    This would be ideal, if the instability created by Costello results in Labor winning 100+ seats, which would effectively give them another 2 terms.
    [and the Greens taking the Balance of Power in the Senate then he will be even less electable then than he is now! ]
    If Labor wins the next election, I think it is a formality that the Greens will hold the balance of power in their own right. Perhaps that is why the Government wants the ETS so badly now, because they know the Greens are going to insist on a much tougher one when they hold the balance of power.

  18. Good if the Greens do want a tougher stance on the ETS because where in the world has an ETS worked, where i am waiting for answers?

  21. [So the obvious thing that will happen in the MSM is the search for angles to undermine Rudd/Obama, to make sure it isn’t a positive for Rudd.]

    They’ll probably try for the travel angle again I reckon. Get ready for the right wing radio ratbags to start drumming up the hounds…

  24. I think even more ominous for the Liberal Party is that this result has been achieved now that we have basically entered a recession, jobs are being lost and all are now acutely aware where the economy might be headed and they are worrying for their jobs. Yet Rudd’s PPM climbs and the TPP is nice and steady.

  25. So where has an Emissions Trading Scheme in the world helped reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions.. Yet not one scheme has acheived its aim. That is why the policy is like the Victorian Governments pipeline project a waste of taxpayers money which we will only find out about in about ten years. Pathetic cowardly policy put place to show, actually con the electorate that we are pretending to do something…

  26. Yup, i think the Greens will insist on a tougher ETS if they have BOP in the Senate after the next election. I also think that knowing that:

    “If Labor wins the next election, I think it is a formality that the Greens will hold the balance of power in their own right.”,

    they will pass what gets put up this year to get things started, and then look at building on it when they have greater leverage.

    Xenophon will get some amendments and Fielding may have learned something by then? Unless the Libs have learned something like not simply opposing for sake of it. If they are willing to learn from experience they may be able to build some credibility during the ETS debate, but i doubt it.

  28. [That is why the policy is like the Victorian Governments pipeline project a waste of taxpayers money]
    The CPRS actually RAISES money – $14.2 billion in its first year – because it puts a price on carbon pollution for the first time ever.

  29. Good grief! 65% preffered PM for Rudd. He’s back on seventh heaven. Turnbull is a dead man but I still think Costello will go for the safer option and take the leadership AFTER 2010.

  30. Rudd’s off to the G20 and Turnbull today was on about Bikies. WTF.
    Surprised, really, that he can muster 21% PPM.

  31. So where in the world has it worked? Better keep searching the net Shows.
    It will do nothing except allow big polluters to go on doing what the want, allow accountants and lawyers to fight over the handling of the credits whilst carbon continues to build in the atmosphere… Shows stop preaching government policy how much do they pay you an hour…

  32. [but I still think Costello will go for the safer option and take the leadership AFTER 2010.]
    Yep, Costello is such a strong political operator that he is at his best AFTER letting the opposite side of politics win.

  33. [21% PPM]
    Woah! It’s 20%, let’s not get ahead of ourselves 😀
    [So where in the world has it worked? Better keep searching the net Shows.]
    I don’t need to search the internet, I’m in film geek 7th Heaven – Warner Home Video is releasing 150 previously unavailable films on DVD, some of them have never been released on any home video format:
    http://www.wbshop.com/Warner-Archive/MOVIEARCHIVE,default,sc.html?prefn1=format&prefv1=Warner%20Archive&psortb1=name-sort&psortd1=1
    [It will do nothing except allow big polluters to go on doing what the want, allow accountants and lawyers to fight over the handling of the credits whilst carbon continues to build in the atmosphere]
    This is not how the CPRS works, maybe YOU need to do some net searching?
    [Shows stop preaching government policy how much do they pay you an hour…]
    I just stated a fact, sorry to upset you…

  34. Nelson was actually picking up momentum when Turnbull tossed him out. I wish we still had Nelson. Unlike Turnbull, Nelson had a heart.

  37. [Nelson was actually picking up momentum when Turnbull tossed him out. I wish we still had Nelson. Unlike Turnbull, Nelson had a heart]

    Bree, you know from the mouth of babes etc etc

    The libs are living the wizard of oz
    turnbull needs a heart
    nelson needs a brain
    Costello needs some…

  41. Dario, Sydney radio this afternoon was running Tuckey’s comments about Rudd’s trip overseas! You can be sure that the MSM will look for whatever negative angle they can find!

  44. Zoomster from the last thread:

    [if Brown had made it a preference deal breaker in 2006, climate change would have been a front ranking issue.]

    What rubbish. The Greens had no chance of participating in the policy debate in 2007, let alone leading it.

    Anyway, you weren’t talking about the 2007 election, you were talking about “years ago”.

  47. I wandered over to Blair and Ackermans blogs today what a miserable bunch they still rehashing Heiner no wonder the Libs are stuck in the late 17th century,with friend like Bolt Ackerman and Blair who needs enemy’s.

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