The latest fortnightly Newspoll survey shows Labor’s two-party lead down slightly, from 58-42 to 56-44. Kevin Rudd leads Malcolm Turnbull as preferred prime minister 61 per cent to 21 per cent. More to follow.
UPDATE (10/3/09): Reporting a day later than usual, Essential Research also shows a four point narrowing on two-party preferred, from 62-38 to 60-40. Also featured: “political party characteristics”, executive salaries, climate change, maternity leave and “confidence in Australian economy to withstand the current financial crisis”, which Essential Research has been tracking since October last year (and which has taken a big hit in the current survey). You also probably know by now that yesterday’s Newspoll featured a headline-grabbing supplementary question on the Liberal leadership showing Peter Costello favoured by 53 per cent against 40 per cent for Malcolm Turnbull.
Dear Gus
I predicted on election night Costello would walk away from the leadership. This was on the understanding Opposition leaders after a loss do not win first elections.
However after the first term chances improve.
Rudd et-al are struggling under the weight watch Costello swoop when he thinks he has a chance. Otherwise he would have left Parliament.
[However their are many scandanivian countries which practise the type of socialism]
Which Scandinavian country has abolished private property and transferred political power to the proletariat? Clue: None. If we’re just talking about the Swedish mixed economy and the welfare state, then ho hum, we can all go to bed. That’s called *social democracy*, duh. I thought you were talking about *socialism.* Anyway all the Scandinavian countries except Norway have conservative governments at present.
Be careful Scotty J Adam will get personal.
[Which in my opinion is not a very useful indication of anything.]
Why not? Would it be better for those people to be living on under $2 a day?
Or what about GDP per capita? 119 RMB in 1952 (about US$17) compared to 16000 RMB in 2006 (in 1952 money value) (about US$2400).
So saying, he went to bed.
[Dear Gus
I predicted on election night Costello would walk away from the leadership. This was on the understanding Opposition leaders after a loss do not win first elections.
However after the first term chances improve.
Rudd et-al are struggling under the weight watch Costello swoop when he thinks he has a chance. Otherwise he would have left Parliament. ]
A simple yes would have been easier
🙂
[How is chavez corrupt and how is he a thug?]
He doesn’t vote ALP.
[He doesn’t vote ALP]
steady Oz!
😉
Their are big differences between many of these countries and our own Adam on policies.
But i will not elaborate tonight, it is 12 20 and some of lucky ones still have jobs to attend.
Night.
[So as the government cedes economic power to a burgeoning middle-class, they’ll eventually cede political power as well.]
I don’t think they will cede it without a prolonged period of violence.
Of course Marx completely missed the whole potential for a middle class, i.e. a class that worked but also owned assets, and thus quite liked capitalism.
[Why not? Would it be better for those people to be living on under $2 a day?]
I don’t see how minority of the country going from say, $1 a day to $3 a day, not accounting for inflation, is anything to boast about.
Dear Gus
No
[I don’t see how minority of the country going from say, $1 a day to $3 a day, not accounting for inflation, is anything to boast about.]
It accounts for inflation, when it it is millions of people it is important, when it is combined with a massive increase in GDP per capita, in a country with 1.3 billion people it is significant.
GDP per capita has multiplied by 16 times in 55 years. That’s quite astonishing. Ours has increased by about 5 – 6 times in that same period.
And by the way Gus nor do I vote liberal
[Of course Marx completely missed the whole potential for a middle class, i.e. a class that worked but also owned assets, and thus quite liked capitalism.]
Well no, not really. He suggested that the dynamics of capitalism would eventually squeeze out most of the middle class, but I don’t recall him saying it didn’t exist and that it wouldn’t fight to keep the system that supported it.
[Dear Gus
No ]
dear robert, my apologies for insinuating you were a victorian lib, its just that logic and nous say that costello should be leader
(and I actually believe he would “galvanise’ the libs)
unfortunately, the cult of howard has stymied both his ambition and the libs thinking
Basically its now or never for the “heir apparent’.
Tho his ‘base’ aint really coming to his aid.
ie: Vic Hq
[He suggested that the dynamics of capitalism would eventually squeeze out most of the middle class]
So there would only be two classes left, labor and capital, workers and owners. So he got things completely arse backwards, because the biggest class now in developed countries IS the middle class.
[Based on household surveys, the poverty rate in China in 1981 was 64% of the population. This rate declined to 10% in 2004, indicating that about 500 million people have climbed out of poverty during this period]
Dear Gus
It’s not should that I am saying but will. Where else will they have to go after the next election?
Where else will voters go in the 2013 election when Rudd, Wong and others prove their ineffectualness?
The Labor party should get rid of Kevin now and promote Julia in two elections time it will be too late.
Gillard may just save their bacon but it needs to happen soon.
[The Labor party should get rid of Kevin now and promote Julia in two elections time it will be too late. ]
Yeah, and the Liberals should promote Bronwyn Bishop to leader, else they’re stuffed.
[It’s not should that I am saying but will. Where else will they have to go after the next election?
Where else will voters go in the 2013 election when Rudd, Wong and others prove their ineffectualness?
The Labor party should get rid of Kevin now and promote Julia in two elections time it will be too late.
Gillard may just save their bacon but it needs to happen soon. ]
And I thought this was the begining of a beautiful friendship robert s
🙁
Turnbull wants to amend the unfair dismissal provisions from 15 to 25 employees:
[The Opposition Leader is demanding that small businesses be allowed to employ more workers before being hit with Labor’s tougher new unfair dismissal laws.
Under Mr Turnbull’s proposal, a small business would be allowed to employ 25 full-time equivalent employees. Labor’s legislation is set at 15 employees, a figure Mr Turnbull had not previously opposed. ]
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25179463-601,00.html
Shows On
The general voter will forgive most that is happening now but what happens when we have 10% unemployment again and we are still having reviews and the the government says they have been a waste of time i.e. Garnaut?
Oh Gus
But it is, I am not Victorian nor do I vote liberal!
[The general voter will forgive most that is happening now but what happens when we have 10% unemployment again]
Unemployment was 10% when Keating won the 1993 election, and Labor was going for a fifth term, not its second.
Of course increasing unemployment is sad, because it means people suffer. The current Government will be judged on 1) what it does to slow the increase in unemployment 2) what it does for people and their families who are unemployed.
It will not be judged on causing the recession, people understand that it started in the U.S.
[But it is, I am not Victorian nor do I vote liberal! ]
Well, at least there is hope for you
🙂
Nite all
[Turnbull wants to amend the unfair dismissal provisions from 15 to 25 employees]
That’s the best Turnbull can come up with?
[That’s the best Turnbull can come up with?]
Looks that way. This is another part of his employment policies, he wants it to be easier for businesses to sack people.
Shows On
Exactly.
The government will be judged on what they do on a number of issues, unemployment and Global Warming and by 2013 neither will be looking good. We will have a government in big debt having hoped the world economy will improve.
The unknown of course is who will buy their bonds.
[The government will be judged on what they do on a number of issues, unemployment and Global Warming and by 2013 neither will be looking good.]
I think the Government is more worried about the next election, rather than the one after that.
[The unknown of course is who will buy their bonds.]
When the economy and share market is as shaky as it has been for the last six months, government bonds are a very attractive investment.
These guys are economic pigs.
Having just destroyed the global financial markets, ruined their country, stolen billions to give to themselves as ‘bonuses’ and having received billions in bail out monies….they are still like pathological killers, unrepentant, oblivious to the fact that it is them that are the problem and the whole root of the collapse.
They worry about ordinary people having a choice but not about total unrestrained unregulated extreme risk financial market activity. They should have made the sacking of the boards of banks a prerequisite to receiving bail out money.
What these guys are all about is protecting the aristocracy of the wealthy a powerfully connected.
Citigroup Enters Union Fray With Anti-EFCA Call
Embattled financial giant Citigroup Inc., which has received at least $50 billion in federal bailout funds, hosted a private conference call on Wednesday to build opposition to the Employee Free Choice Act.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/03/12/citigroup-enters-union-fr_n_174106.html
The Australian media is pathetic. They can barely between offer up a non partisan analysis of government or the economics of the day between them.
Some journos at the OO are just plain dishonest while others are just flat out liars, the remainder of the media want to engage in similar dishonesty and scare mongering, maybe to hurry the country into recession (maybe they think they will have more to write about if they can ruin the country).
It would be hard for an Australian to discover the honest truth of things in Australia at the moment. And the Sydney Morning Herald joined the trash pile when they changed management just before the election. Channel 9 uses its morning show as Liberal party support hour and the ABC lamely manipulates its on-line news.
They wonder why the bloggosphere treats them with contempt. Most of them deserve little more than contempt. There are only a handful of decent journalists out there.
I think we are going to end up with a race for a quality on-line news and C/A site – though we will still probably get the partisan crap served up in the dead tree news.
Crikey could have been that site, but I gave up on it when it decided to include partisan crap.
I don’t get why people think it is ok for media sites that have partisan crap from both sides of the spectrum in a rage or site and say that makes it balanced. A balanced media out let is one that bins partisan pieces and aims to produce non partisan pieces.
A site / newspaper or whatever that had a reputation for rigorously avoiding partisanship in its news and C/A would become the reference point of truth. People would cite it in support of their arguments. At the moment if you cited something from the OO as support of an argument you would get laughed at.
disgruntled.
Ugh, that partisan hack John Buchanan was polluting the airwaves on Lateline last night.
Terrible.
Michael Costa in Today’s Australian:
[Having so publicly rejected traditional economics, and faced with the obvious global failure of initial neo-interventionist Keynesian inspired responses to economic problems, Rudd finds himself with narrowing policy options.
For somebody whose personal activism is more and more his sole response to concerns that the Government has no solutions, this is a real problem. He has framed the debate in terms of the rediscovered benefits of neo-interventionism rather than conventional explanations of the bursting of asset price bubbles, inappropriate government regulation and the vagaries of business cycles in a mixed economy.
Rudd wants us to believe that he and his personal attributes are part of the solution. After all, he has produced a “path breaking” analysis of the problems with neo-liberalism and “visionary” government-focused solutions. With his self-indulgent foray into political and economic philosophy, he has dug a political hole.
The absurdity of his position is highlighted by the fact that his speech to the Business Chamber lunch goes on endlessly about the failings of so-called turbo-charged capitalism.
Somebody should have pointed out to him that many in the room were beneficiaries of the system he is trashing. ]
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25178500-7583,00.html
[The absurdity of his position is highlighted by the fact that his speech to the Business Chamber lunch goes on endlessly about the failings of so-called turbo-charged capitalism.
Somebody should have pointed out to him that many in the room were beneficiaries of the system he is trashing. ]
How is that absurd? He knew full well who was in the room. What a load of rubbish.
Michael Costa is to economic wisdom as the NSW economy is to…
Boerwar,
completing one colour on a Rubiks Cube.
I said it before. I am saying it again and I will say it again.
Turnbull is doing a “costello” and it will damage him forever.
Howie satred at cossie and said: “come and get me”. Cossie didnot have the balls and was damaged forever.
Like the little wave Cossie did yesterday in the Parliament:
Cossie was taunting at Turnbull and said: “come and get me”. If Turnbull also does not have the balls, he will also be damaged forever.
Turnbull should give Cossie an ultimatum, challange me or quit parliament.
btw: Julie Bishop was crucified for doing a little cat claw thing. How come Cossie can get away with his little pathetic wave? A clear case of double standard here. Yes, it just a boyo thing.
Will the Vic Bushfire Concerts tomorrow be televised? anybody?
Wow Rudd must be doing the right thing, to have Latham AND Costa criticise him.
I also note that the AFR, yesterday, had a particularly scathing opinion of the Fair Work bill “anything but [fair]”.
I’m beginning to appreciate Costello.
The longer he keeps this up the more more destabilised the Liberal Party. If he eventually takes over the leadership, he’s such a lazy oaf and Labor having so much to use against him, he’s virtually assured an electoral thrashing.
If by some perverse miracle he should become PM his commitment to neo-liberalism, including a low-wages “free market” for labour, will unravel the domestic economy such that he will go out in shame with the Liberals’ economic credibility shattered forever.
GP must have been on night shift in the Young Liberal Ready Response Room.
[including a low-wages “free market” for labour, will unravel the domestic economy such that he will go out in shame with the Liberals’ economic credibility shattered forever.]
Cuppa, despite your partisan rancour, there is a body of economic opinion that suggests the Fair Work bill will cost jobs due to much increased scope of unfair dismissal and union powers.
No 1242
Unlike your aged self, I am a bit of young night owl. Cannot go to sleep early.
No 1244
I am a bit of [a] young night owl.
[GP must have been on night shift in the Young Liberal Ready Response Room]
I wonder if they have to provide their own coffee and toilet paper. And are they paid per post or per hour (no penalties).
[Cannot go to sleep early]
Tormented by guilt, no doubt.
Dennis Shanahan PROVES Rudd is scared of Costello:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25179500-17301,00.html
No 1247
Guilt? LOL
Kevin07, Recession08, Depression09. That is the guilty legacy of Labor.
[
Yes minister! Still the good Oil
Garrett’s role as Environment Minister had robbed them of all but a couple of hours of rehearsal together. Garrett spent the first part of this week in Papua New Guinea discussing the environment with “Coral Triangle” leaders. He arrived in Canberra late on Wednesday night for a quick midnight rehearsal with his old mates and spent yesterday on ministerial duties, enduring a question time that dragged on for almost two hours and issuing a press release about reforming the International Whaling Commission.
Only then was he able to transform into his alter ego of rock singer and get prepared for some wailing of his own.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/yes-minister-still-the-good-oil-20090312-8wmo.html?page=-1
]