Essential Research: 60-40

This week’s Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead at 60-40, up from 59-41 last week. Also featured are interesting findings on development of nuclear power plants for electricity generation (43 per cent support, 35 per cent oppose) and whether Australia has an obligation to dispose of nuclear waste from countries it exports uranium to (26 per cent agree, 53 per cent disagree), along with perceptions of the Australian-US relationship and a quiz question on Australia Day (which makes me wonder how many answered without recourse to Google). Other news:

• The South Australian Liberals have suffered an embarrassing defeat at the hands of independent Geoff Brock in the Frome by-election following Saturday’s distribution of preferences. Crikey subscribers can read my post-mortem here, and a still lively discussion is raging on my live coverage post. The Advertiser reports that Brock’s success might give other potential independent candidates ideas, including “ALP stalwarts such as Rod Sawford and Murray Delaine”, who were respectively Labor members for the federal seat of Port Adelaide and the state seat of Cheltenham. Liberal leader Martin Hamilton-Smith says he is “ready to make deals with any independent candidate who ran next year in safe Labor seats such as Port Adelaide, Croydon, Lee and Colton”.

• Speculation about an early Queensland election continues to stop and start. Mark Bahnisch of Larvatus Prodeo says the Courier-Mail has damaged its credibility with its repeated wolf-crying on the subject, while The Australian’s D. D. McNicoll contends that “the whisper in Queensland political circles is Premier Anna Bligh will call the state election on February 28, a date that ensures bumper superannuation payouts for all the surviving members of the ALP’s ‘Class of 2001’ who were never expected to serve more than one term in parliament.” “Former Howard government senior adviser” David Moore surveys the landscape in The Australian.

• The NSW Nationals’ plans to select a candidate in a winnable seat for the 2011 state election by holding an open primary has caught the attention of blogger Tim Andrews, who is “unsure why this proposal hasn’t received more attention, as it has the potential to revolutionise Australian politics”. Ben Raue at The Tally Room reckons the idea is “at least a good gimmick”. The Nationals’ briefing paper on the subject can be read here.

• Western Australia’s daylight saving referendum will be held on May 16. Daylight saving was previously voted down in 1975 (53.66 per cent against), 1984 (54.35 per cent) and 1992 (53.14 per cent).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

519 comments on “Essential Research: 60-40”

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  1. Ms Bishop said:

    “Everything should be on the table — personal income tax and business taxes.”

    Can anyone find Mr Turnbull saying anything similar regarding business taxes? I doubt it.

  2. Geez Oz… that’s slanted reporting 101…
    use the visual to go with the words. The words themselves imply nothing, the visual says nothing, but together…

    no doubt Uhlmann would say it was unintentional…

  3. [ruawake, I think you’re thinking of Julie Bishop not Malcolm with that “chestnut” sledge.]

    GG, yes, i have been thinking about Julie Bishop lately.

  4. Sorry guys and gals I’m confused.

    Ms Bishop has a chest but some say no nuts.

    Mr Turnbull, some say he has no nuts, but he has more front than Myers.

    Please explain. 😉

  5. Tax cuts?? Tax cuts??

    Is this the Lib answer to every issue?

    Are tax cuts the answer to CC, infrastructure, employment, social services, education, etc, etc?

    The day that the Libs develop develop some policies beyond “tax cuts” is the day they might have a chance of being returned to Government.

  6. Rua, no, i have not been thinking about Ms. Bishop’s chest or nuts. I have been thinking about her because I haven’t seen or heard from/about her for a little while. Just wondering whether she has melted in the heat.

  7. Winston

    Look at most of Mr Costello’s speeches in parliament – Tax Cuts in 2007,2006,2005,2004,2003 etc, etc. While Govt revenue from PAYG tax increased year after year.

    The con worked for the best part of a decade, why change in opposition?

  8. Ms Bishop has been in the USA blaming Mr Swan for the impending cut in interest rates. Given that it is freezing there, maybe she is being thawed out before the spit roast next tuesday. 😉

  9. Instead of tax cuts it should be tax increases, and for the people who afford to pay more the rich.
    As unemployment rises their is significant risk that the homeless will increase due to very high rents people are paying.
    Time to increase taxes to help the least well off. But will the government do it, i doubt it. It is to busy handing out money to private schools for new computers to people who do not need them, sorry Julia Gillard has joined the ranks of her colleagues another useless hack.

  10. Finn dont stir the pot, it’s been peaceful without her maniac hypnotic stare and snap flourishing of papers, hmm Bishop’s missed her vocation, they’re the exact tools i’ve seen my lawyer pal use in court.

  11. rua @ 408.

    Quite right – a one trick pony.

    BTW I’ve had to extend my prediction for a Qld election to March. Just thought you’d like to know.

  12. [BTW I’ve had to extend my prediction for a Qld election to March. Just thought you’d like to know.]

    This time next month you can extend it to April, Winston.

  13. vera
    Posted Thursday, January 29, 2009 at 5:31 pm | Permalink

    “Ron you’re a worry sometimes but we luv you anyway”

    thanks Vera , I can be quite sinful at times….wel truthful even quite sinful regalarly as well , and hope those xx roses arrived as cost th earth

  14. Crikey today has some leadership talk regarding the LNP. Apparently some in the party aren’t happy with Springborg’s strategy and are thinking of replacing him with some block called “Seeney”.

  15. “Springborg’s strategy ”

    pray tell , what is it……..perhaps I’v not been concentratig enough on his words
    Tassie 412.5 C so ? and it rains in Sydney says Andrew Bolt so CC is disproven , but these things can be separate seaonal issues or once/twice offs , whereas CC is proven scientific trends

  16. Tassie has hit 41deg!!!!!, last time i was over there we froze and had to go buy thick jackets, that was in march, they never told us global warming was going this far, they said it would go up a couple of degrees.

  17. Vera , you ar unbelievable 🙂

    after I bought thems roses , he said he was a Lib , I should hav known better

    Now Vera , please read this and see if you can work out why Libs confidence is “boosted” !

    oz on latst Newspoll:

    “While Mr Rudd remains the preferred leader on the question of who would make a better prime minister by 60 per cent of those surveyed, Mr Turnbull’s level of support has INCREASED from 19 per cent in the previous survey UP TO 22 per cent now.

    This is his strongest result since late November, and will BOOST confidence in the Coalition ranks after rumblings late last year”

  18. Ron thats nearly as good as Shanahan’s “the gap in narrowing Howard is back in the race” before the last election, i believe the poll movement was 1% at the time, it settled back at the next poll 🙂

  19. Lordy that’s one mighty big BOOST Malcolm got, a whopping 3%. Kev’ll be starting to panic now.
    And Ron I don’t think “Confidence” and “Coalition” is allowed to be used in the same sentence 🙂

  20. vera
    Posted Thursday, January 29, 2009 at 11:07 pm | Permalink

    “And Ron I don’t think “Confidence” and “Coalition” is allowed to be used in the same sentence”

    Thats true Vera , but am always looking left fields for a positbve….and seeing Libs admit to confidence boost from Malcolm’s 19% to 22% PPM , i tink hell there confidense is reely so low , its sort of a negative confidence when you hav no confidense …so now that oz commetn has NOT made me ilhappy at all ….it makes me feel now positive Labor confidence so thanks oz newspaper

  21. On ABC radio news tonight I heard Malcolm Turnbull claim that Labor wouldnt accede to his wishes for a tax cut because “they are the party of high taxes”. As taxes are lower now than when he was in govt, how can he justify his claim? As it is well known that taxes are lower now than a year ago, how can the ABC allow him to make such a claim unchallenged? What skill levels are required nowadays in order to work in the sheltered workshop that is ABC News?

  22. Michael, Malcolm is like a kid in a mud puddle, he splashes it in all directions and hopes to heaven some of it’ll stick, who was interviewing him? most serious journos are starting to denounce his tax cut ideology so he’s flailing madly about, in the ch9 news tonight he was waffling on and Laurie Oakes came right out and said he was wrong, all depends who it was on 2 but the main ones selling Malcolm’s crap are the Newsltd mob and even Rupert said today Swan was doing the right thing.

  23. apropos the other nites comments

    ““Let us set aside for a moment the fact that the Obamassiah is unqualified, that he consorts with known terrorists, that he is the most Liberal candidate ever to win his party’s nomination for President. No, let’s concentrate on his supporters since without them, he’d still be organizing communities in Chicago.

    His supporters attempt to stifle free speech by inundating phone lines whenever a radio talk show host attempts to discuss His Oiliness in other than laudatory terms. ”

    hopes this helps you to have a better worldview and stops you using infantile insults towards myself.

    Also I sincerely hope you can see beyond your “whitebread’ view of how we treat our indigenies ,even the ones who are not full blood.

  24. Gary, the minute they start quoting unnames sources i usually stop reading, you can write any wild story you want with unnamed sources and then another news outlet will get on the bandwagon and start writing it as fact, how many times have we seen that? you know and i know the GST will be left strictly alone, to fiddle with it would be political suicide and lets face it Rudd’s not the self destructive type.

  25. #428
    “I would like to see the proof of this.”

    Do not need it , its obvous December stimili went to ‘spenders’ only , so they spent….as Rudd wanted them to do , and giving short term ‘kick’ (as govt planned to halt GFC efects already then hurting econamy0

    As for your GST referense link, GST cuts ar as bad as tax cuts…too slow in having an efect and unfairly distributiv and also not to just ‘spenders’ these econamic rationolists philosophys days finished in Wall St ruins Centrists Labor Keynes’s thoughts now finaly back in charge , about time

  26. Sorry, Judith, but I was so gobsmacked by the inanity of the article that I didnt note the imbecile who was the purported “reporter”. I couldnt even say if it was a male or female.
    You are right about the GST cut, it will never happen. In any case, does a percent or so cut on the price of a toaster or kettle tempt you to go out and buy? I only buy anything when I really need it, not when it is a dollar or so cheaper than it was last week. We need remedial work on our infrastructure in the short (and long) term, and then long term we need new infrastructure projects. The very existence of the Pacific Highway in its current state is an indictment of all governments state and federal of the last 25 years. Every state has a similar horror story. Howards wasting of money on the Alice to Darwin rail rort is a disgrace.

  27. GG
    Good to see that as usual you spread disinformation

    PS got the cojones to answer ny Q’s at LP

    nah thats right ,they havent dropped yet LOL

  28. Gusface: Since when was Free Republic the KKK site? Even if it was, the fact that one commenter among thousands on the site has seen fit to call Obama “oily” – defined by as “smooth or unctuous, as in manner or speech” – would prove nothing at all. It’s also a complete mystery to me why you’re addressing my “view of how we treat our indigenies, even the ones who are not full blood”.

  29. Furthermore, the comment you compared to the KKK was this one: “Obama did not win because he was black and if he’d lost it would nott hav been becasue he was black , times favourd a Democrat”.

  30. WB
    simply put “oiliness” is unacceptable to anyone , or for that matter any attempt to denigrate Obi’s win by lines such as you quoted @ 436is unacceptable.

    re the aborigine quote,I was wondering if you believed it “nice’ to say to one of our people that obi was “oiliness”

    If you cannot see the outrage then unfortunately the tag of ‘whitebread” fits.

  31. 728
    Posted Monday, January 26, 2009 at 5:47 pm | Permalink
    “….ps (to WB) If you get a chance go to the KKK site and surprise surprise, you will find an exact copy of the quote I took exception too”

    William’s #436 abov supplied th actual quote you objectd to (from your own #671 post , where you also implied my KKK referensing)

    About time Gusgace you showed us all th KKK website link showing this “an exact copy of th quote “ you claim to hav
    BTW , notwithstanding you slectively extracted th quote quite out of context of a whole para explainig Obana’s win anyway
    Now if you can not supply that exact quote link , sugest blogers take no notise of any future Gusface coments on this subject …seeing they’d be red herringly simply avoiding suplying that ‘exact quote’ , and so therefore th innuendo will be shown to be false

    Whilst smeering me with KKK may convinse some seeing throwing innuendo mud always leaves some effect on some posters , I’m still here & some will take no notice reely…. same thing as I’ve said same thing to numerous posters who criticise eduction lingos , but today is Friday and enjoy it there’ll never be another 30/1/09 as Gusface you simply made a blue

  32. Whilst I do not wish to ofend William in carrying on someting thats a non event , I feel on re- consideraton that my coments and Williams to Gusface , do not adequately rebut gusface’s coments because I’ve now notised Gusface did in ffact muddy waters tonite , to confuse posters unaware of factual sequenses

    1/ I made a post #670 th other nite explaining Obama’s win …being in part Bush factor and GFC and times favourd Democrats a change , but it needed a clever campaign and articulating , and Obama did both

    Later in same para I said as per Williams #436 quote :
    “Obama did not win because he was black and if he’d lost it would nott hav been becasue he was black , times favourd a Democrat”.
    (NB/ th term “Oiliness” was NOT used at all

    2/ Gusface in reply in #671 falsely claimed this abov quote was
    “Geez ron if I didnt know better,I would have thought that line was from the KKK’

    3/ I repled to Gusface #674 that had a woman , Hillary been th Nominee , my same politcal assesment principals and caveats wuld still apply

    4/ Gusface out of blue th next day , still smarting maybe , posts #728 to WB
    “ps (to WB) If you get a chance go to the KKK site and surprise surprise, you will find an exact copy of the quote I took exception too”

    5/ WB per his #436 gav Gusface opportunity to supply this KKK quote
    Gusface did not take up WB’s invitaton He can not because it does not exist
    So Gusface made a false KKK innuendo that he can not bak up as it is false

    6/ Gusface instead of remainig silent , seeing a retraction by Gusface wasn’t on his agenda , Gusface tonite then tried to muddy red herring waters with a quote from “Free Republic” (whoever th hell they ar) where a single blogger used a term ‘oiliness”

    But th term “oiliness” was NEVER in my #670 blog to which Gusface objected to at all Instead Gusface extracted above ‘times favourd a Democrat’ etc quote and implied THAT quote came from my KKK referensing , and later told WB an exact copy of THAT quote was in a KKK Site…nothing to do with term ‘oiliness”

    So tonite , Gusface’s red hering switch from th quote he claimed was KKK referensing to now all of a sudden convenentley th term ‘oiliness’ (where he has a single link of) , is quite misleading & intanded to confuse posters here
    ps/ Fact that i hav indeed used oiliness” regarding Obama at other times (and will continue to do so) is irelevant to Gusfgace’s falsely claiming my abov quote was KKK referensing , a slur once made does/will influense some posters…so beit
    BTW , WB has quite adequateley defined ‘oiliness’ as derititve in his #435 , although its ‘conversion’ from what Vera corectly & kindly calls ‘ronlish’ owes to aChicago famous castrol add “linked” to “smooth nuancing” speech , a skill oiliness is an expert in ie what is said may not be what is actualy said/promised, ….and then he delivers same in probaley (as I’ve said before) as th best orotorial speeker in US political history , two exceptional skills …a point made to GB and others who don’t like , so beit also , its there problam with dialec educatons

    As to some looney in a US Site I’ve never heard of (why wuld anyone go to a crazies site anyway Gusface) how these crazies cloned a patanted ronlish , can I just hope & prays they’re milionaires as there’s no point suing poor broke patents abusers

    US future rest with he and US Congress , only a moron wuld not hope for positive outcomes , as do I but with cautions….not predictons , only nostradomas
    did that

  33. Did I miss something or did the HowRudd convergence announce a timely $10m project to enquire into what to do about all the extra people who are going to die as a result of CC by 2030? If so, bit by bit, we are starting to get to the nitty gritty.

    Climate change kills people.

    If I have the details right, this is a sensible climate change adaptation step (albeit with a hopelessly limited TOR)and money far better spent than on a useless solo 5% ETS.

    Anyway, if the researchers are really agile they might be able to set up some relevant case studies around South-eastern Australia right about now. (The death toll from a single over-hot summer in Europe a few years ago was reckoned to be about 25,000.)

  34. William, if it is not allowed to call JWH a r*dent, Rudd Kr*dd but it is ok to Obama oilyness, you are sending out the clear message that insulting nicknames are only allowed where you do not like certain political personalities. Not what I would call an impartial mesage.


  35. Gusface,

    Since Obama is the most liberal POTUS ever elected, i will repeat the saying of that famous Liberal:

    “I will decide who I criticise and the circumstances in which I criticise.”

    JF Kennedy was never criticised when he was a POTUS because he was regarded as lilly-white. We now know what he was really up to.

  36. Gusface

    Not sure what all the fuss and feathers is about.

    Thankfully, OBama is very different from Bush. (Come to think about it, what really strange people that Bush chap and his little lickspittle were! They were third-rate character actors, up to their knees in blood and peace medals, in a real-life tragi-comic opera of torture, war, economic ruin and egoistic self-delusion. How did they manage to seem so normal for so long?)

    I am sceptical about Obama (not nastily, but as in the proof is in the pudding sort of way), and am not sure how he will measure up, but I will be very pleased if he manages:
    1. not to start any new wars
    2. to get out of some old ones
    3. to develop a functional working relationship between the West and about 1 billion muslims
    4. to set some frameworks in place to put the robber barons and corporate pirates into Gitmo (why close it when it could really do some good?) while simultaneously encouraging enterprise
    5. to get an equitable resolution to Palestine/Israel
    6. to get the US economy kick-started, avoid a complete collapse of the US dollar and avoid runaway inflation…
    7. set in place a global CC response that is adequate to the task.

    All in all, if Obama goes even part way to achieving any of these he will be light years ahead of Bush whose achievements were more or less the opposite for all seven items. (Not forgetting the cameo support appearances on the world stage by his little lickspittle.)

    Therefore, from my perspective, cut Obama a bit of slack and cross your fingers. For better or worse, during what will probably the most critical decision point for a century or so, he is the only game in town.

  37. … and another thing…

    … since when has the Business Council Of Australia been a bunch of hippie lefties? Calling for a $35 billion deficit? They’ll be the first ones to condemn Rudd when it happens. Any deficit that comes about will have been either “too late”, “too little”, “too much”, “wrongly targeted” or “out of step with international trends”.

    Secondly, this “we’re already in recession” business: a recession is two quarters of negative growth. So far we haven’t even had one. What’s with all the “experts” trying to outdo each other announcing a recession? Recession futures? I suppose somewhere in some deep dark think tank recession futures exist, but why do the misery gutsers spruiking them get the prime gig on our radio and TV news? A good proportion of a recession can be put down to gloom. There’s plenty of it about, for no good reason as far as I can see, except oneupmanship among economic commentators.

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