Essential Research: 60-40

This week’s Essential Research survey has Labor’s lead at 60-40, up from 59-41 last week. Also featured are interesting findings on development of nuclear power plants for electricity generation (43 per cent support, 35 per cent oppose) and whether Australia has an obligation to dispose of nuclear waste from countries it exports uranium to (26 per cent agree, 53 per cent disagree), along with perceptions of the Australian-US relationship and a quiz question on Australia Day (which makes me wonder how many answered without recourse to Google). Other news:

• The South Australian Liberals have suffered an embarrassing defeat at the hands of independent Geoff Brock in the Frome by-election following Saturday’s distribution of preferences. Crikey subscribers can read my post-mortem here, and a still lively discussion is raging on my live coverage post. The Advertiser reports that Brock’s success might give other potential independent candidates ideas, including “ALP stalwarts such as Rod Sawford and Murray Delaine”, who were respectively Labor members for the federal seat of Port Adelaide and the state seat of Cheltenham. Liberal leader Martin Hamilton-Smith says he is “ready to make deals with any independent candidate who ran next year in safe Labor seats such as Port Adelaide, Croydon, Lee and Colton”.

• Speculation about an early Queensland election continues to stop and start. Mark Bahnisch of Larvatus Prodeo says the Courier-Mail has damaged its credibility with its repeated wolf-crying on the subject, while The Australian’s D. D. McNicoll contends that “the whisper in Queensland political circles is Premier Anna Bligh will call the state election on February 28, a date that ensures bumper superannuation payouts for all the surviving members of the ALP’s ‘Class of 2001’ who were never expected to serve more than one term in parliament.” “Former Howard government senior adviser” David Moore surveys the landscape in The Australian.

• The NSW Nationals’ plans to select a candidate in a winnable seat for the 2011 state election by holding an open primary has caught the attention of blogger Tim Andrews, who is “unsure why this proposal hasn’t received more attention, as it has the potential to revolutionise Australian politics”. Ben Raue at The Tally Room reckons the idea is “at least a good gimmick”. The Nationals’ briefing paper on the subject can be read here.

• Western Australia’s daylight saving referendum will be held on May 16. Daylight saving was previously voted down in 1975 (53.66 per cent against), 1984 (54.35 per cent) and 1992 (53.14 per cent).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

519 comments on “Essential Research: 60-40”

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  1. BB, i’ve missed your thoughtful contributions and as usual that one was spot on, it’s good to have you back. 🙂

  2. BB

    There are recession futures quite literally. Centrebet has a market for Oz being in a recession by the end of 2009, using 2 quarters of negative GDP seasonally adjusted. A recession is currently paying $1.29.

    A 1% interest rate drop by the RBA next week is only paying $1.65.

  3. The Ruddster confirms that the Republic has dropped as a priority.

    [PLANS for Australia to become a republic are on hold, the Rudd Government fearing a voter backlash as economic conditions worsen.

    Despite declaring he’s a “life-long republican”, Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has watered down his response on a republic in the final report from the 2020 Summit.

    In a move that will upset Labor MPs, the chances of holding a plebiscite on an Australian head of state at the next poll are fading. “It is increasingly less likely,” one senior government figure said.]

    Glen, we’re going to get you eventually but I agree with Rudd that now is not the time. The GFC takes precedence. And I don’t think Labor MPs will be “upset”.,22606,24983014-5006301,00.html

  4. Dio, it was only going to be a second term priority anyway, i hope queen Liz lasts a while, the thought of king Charles and queen Camilla gives me the shudders, it’s time we grew up and left the nest.

  5. JB

    Camilla can’t be Queen.


    You could bet on 0.75%, 0.5%, 0.25% or more than 1% so I was a bit surprised they were so sure it would be exactly 1%.

  6. Tom, nicknames are not banned across the board. “Rodent” and “Krudd” have been cracked down upon because they were especially tiresome and overused. “His oiliness” might well become so, and possibly already has – I can’t say I had ever noticed it being used before. It was not being used in the particular circumstance which provoked Gusface’s offensive KKK references.

  7. Dio, oh yes she can, they removed all blocks to that when she married Charles.

    Turnbull is still banging on about his tax cuts and Harvey Norman after all the whining the stimulus package didnt work and they had to close some stores are up on sales a year ago.,22606,24983357-5005962,00.html,22606,24983504-5005962,00.html

    and last but not least the economists think the rates will be slashed by 1% next week,22606,24983467-5005962,00.html

  8. The Rainman’s been at it again, more fibs, more spruking about things he knows nothing about. Surely when he says these silly things (like Rudd doing nothing on everything and anything from GFC to CC) he must realise he’ll be shot down in flames, and people do read the papers and watch the news and read Williams blog :).
    I don’t think anyone missed the $10bil stimulus and the CC 5%-10% targets.
    And now he knows better than the scientists when it comes to carbon storage.
    [Mr Turnbull said biochar had the potential to absorb close to 20 per cent of Australia’s emissions and increase agricultural productivity by improving soil, but the government was ignoring its potential.

    Mr Burke said the government was examining “soil carbon”, but stressed biochar was an untested and unproven technology.

    “In terms of the importance of sequestering carbon in soil, we’ve been absolutely on the front foot on this the whole way through,” he told Sky News on Friday.

    “Biochar is but one of those technologies, and Malcolm has certainly decided to put all of his eggs in one basket very early on, and certainly a long way in advance of where the scientists are at.”]

  9. JB

    Looks like I’m wrong again. Camilla can be Queen but she is going to elect not to be called Queen, which I think is Her Majesty.

    [Also, unless a specific Act of Parliament is passed in the United Kingdom to the contrary, Camilla will, upon the accession of her husband, legally be queen. However, it has been indicated that when the Prince of Wales acceeds to the throne, Camilla will remain styled as Her Royal Highness, with the title of The Princess Consort.]

  10. [The Princess Consort]

    Ah, what every Dad hoped their daughter will grow up to be… Geez the monarchy has to be the dumbest thing to have been invented since the idea to have dumb things was invented.

  11. Diogenes I admit to not being knowledgable on the topic, it was just the fact that Malcolm is all gung-ho saying the govt are ignoring the idea (which could be a good one) when this plainly isn’t true as Burke says that biochar is one of the technologies the govt has been investigating but he also said it was untested and unproven? Just taking his word for that.

  12. vera

    They’ve been doing it in the US for a while with great effect, although it’s quite expensive. If you can get hold of Tim Flannery’s Quarterly Essay in the last edition, there’s a great essay on CC. Turnbull appears to have read the same essay.

  13. [Dolphin “Chef” Follows Cuttlefish Recipe – National Geographic News. January 28, 2009. A wild dolphin has been observed following a specific recipe for preparing a mollusk meal, even stripping the animal of its internal shell and beating it free of ink, a new study says. “It’s an example of quite sophisticated behavior,” said study co-author Tom Tregenza, a research fellow at the University of Exeter. Despite their lack of limbs, dolphins have developed clever ways to use their snouts, Tregenza noted. “A dolphin is like a genius trapped in the body of a fish.”]

    Yes, we are the clever ones. Do it everyday.

    [JB – Looks like I’m wRONg again]

    Diog, when you will ever learn. Methinks it’s time for you to visit the Knowledge Trees of Macchu Picchu.

  14. hey Finn, Dio doesnt try to intimidate me like Glen or dovif so i dont bother to argue the point when he’s wrong, i can be just as wrong as him, so theres no need for duels to the death. 🙂

  15. [so theres no need for duels to the death]

    Judith, as that great man like to say: “Dont you worry about that” – i am just channeling the delightful Mrs. Diog.

  16. Diogenes of course eventually but you’ll win more converts depending on what type of Republic you want and how many symbols of the Commonwealth of Australia Republicans wish to destroy…

    Maybe a 2nd/3rd term priority for Kev…but i will be voting No whenever they bring it up again for the simple reason that there isnt anything wrong with the system we already have which has worked well since 1901…

  17. Michelle hasnt done a bad job in that article, she’s basically said it how it is, dunno that Malcolm would be too impressed seeing his precious tax cuts be dismissed so easily, Gary thanks for that i never saw it when i trawled the sites earlier.

  18. Amigos

    I’m off to see Neil Young this evening at the BDO. He’s been wearing a “Hippies of Obama” badge. If they’re on sale, I’ll buy a few for you.

    “Hippies for Hillary” doesn’t quite have the same ring, does it. :O

  19. Tom

    You share th same selective indignation as GB Th mistake you hav now made however , is to post after I clearly defined in #440 th term oiliness , and its adjective not nick name attributes BTW , I also note you did not even spell it right

    It is you who has therefore deliberateley chosen to , either to ignore that definition due to your possible indesent ideas on racism and/or your over precous partisien sensititivity for your politcal man ….as reely uncritisable, not that frankness to actualy say that is shown

    Either way a none too cute rather amateurish attempt to moderator at selective censorship to your selective standards …and I notise you , like GB hav th gall to never object to th numerous ‘adjectives’ added (quite corectly) to Turnbull made by posters here

    And youse alleged intelectuals accuse th ‘right’ of selectiveitity , double standard indeed I shall continue to occasionally use that adjective as appropriate so deel with it

    If cann’t handle rough & tumble of tough politcal debate , play tiddlewinks… 3 Libs here handle it …and what , some ‘left’ ar fairy floss sensitive politcaly

  20. Dio, are you bluddy mad????? going out in that heat for a ruddy singer, there’ll be one hell of a squash, sigh well i guess we all revert to our second teenagerhood every now and again, have fun. 🙂

  21. Diog, now i know why Caroline Kennedy withdrew and you running:

    [Maybe The Beach Boys
    have got you now
    With those waves
    singing “Caroline No”
    Rollin’ down
    that empty ocean road
    Gettin’ to the surf on time.

    Long may you run.
    Long may you run.
    Although these changes
    have come
    With your chrome heart shining
    in the sun
    Long may you run.]

  22. Ron

    Far be it for me to pick you up on grammar but the word “oiliness” is, in fact, not an adjective. It is a noun. “Oily” would be an adjective, as would oleaginous or unctuous, which may be satisfactory substitutes.

  23. With the heat wave we’re having thought I’d share this line from an email titled
    “You know you’re Australian if….”
    [ You’ve made a bong out of your garden hose rather than use it for something illegal such as watering the garden]
    well it made me smile

  24. The other two things I remember from the Tim Flannery essay were using the internet to engage tribal people living in PNG, Indonesia etc. They could be paid ETS funds in exchange for reforesting their lands, as Rudd’s ETS allows global exchange of carbon credits.

    There was also a way of rotating herding lands into pens so the cows etc ate all the forage in that pen and then moved on to the next pen, instead of eating all the good stuff in the field and having weeds take over the field. I think it was call “Holistic farming”.

  25. Ron, Dio is right. His Oiliness is a noun not an adjective. I don’t object at all (and have said so in the past) to the describing Obama as being oily in his presentation or whatever. It’s the contant replacement of “Obama” with “His Oiliness” I don’t like. Such name calling is unnecessary and adds nothing to the argument. If anything, for me it detracts from it because it’s at that stage where I stop reading and that applies to any stupid name calling from anyone. I stop reading when I see “Howrudd”.
    You argue that I don’t complain when Malcolm is called names. I didn’t complain about your “His Oiliness” either for a long time, not until it finally got on my wick and I’m not asking it to be banned. That’s up to William. I’ve said that before too. I just deal with it in my own way and will continue to do so. I will also continue to refrain from this purile practice.
    You continue to misrepresent my position on this Ron.

  26. Imagine Kevin Rudd or Julia Gillard’s head on the back of a 50 cent coin. Thats what will happen if Australia becomes a republic. Australia, YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED!

  27. I thought Obama is supposed to be the Man of and for the World, you know USA, Hawaii, Indonesia and Kenya. Can’t mention the “O” word, but he is slip-sliding away just the same.

    [Alarm over ‘Buy America’ – WASHINGTON – A NEW ‘Buy American’ push in President Barack Obama’s economic stimulus plan is sparking protests about protectionism from US businesses and trading partners. Mr Obama has pushed for swift passage of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act as vital to prevent the collapse of the fragile US economy as it reels from the global financial crisis.

    The US House of Representatives passed an $819 billion economic stimulus package Wednesday with a ‘Buy American’ provision that generally prohibits the purchase of foreign iron and steel for any stimulus-funded infrastructure project.

    The massive tax cuts and spending package has moved to the Senate, where lawmakers are working on their own version that extends the ‘Buy American’ initiative beyond the House’s iron and steel mandates to include all US manufactured goods.]

  28. Actually, it’s a terrible policy and plenty of economists and trade analysts are arguing that it’s harmful to US interests. If the US condones protectionist trade policies and then other countries around the world also constrain themselves to “Buy China” “Buy India” “Buy Australia”, then the US itself is harmed.

  29. So you Obama supporters here are quite happy for USA to ffffup the rest of World (as if it has not ffffup the rest of the World enough already) just because the precious one is on the throne.

  30. 494 – It wasn’t the policy I was commenting on, it’s was the anti Obama spin you placed on it I was referring to. To say he is slip sliding away suggests he is going back on his word. I don’t recall him promising any different.

  31. Finns

    I seem to recall Obama and Hillary having a hairy chested competition about who would be the most protectionist. Looks like the Great Man won.

    And on another topic, I for one have been bitterly disappointed with the lack of progress that Special Envoy Downer has made in Cyprus. As a taxpayer funding his job, I would like an explanation of how he’s been using his time and why it has been so unproductive. If he doesn’t have a clear plan forward, I think we need to rethink our strategy and that includes leaving open the door to changes in personnel at the top.

  32. “Imagine Kevin Rudd or Julia Gillard’s head on the back of a 50 cent coin. Thats what will happen if Australia becomes a republic. Australia, YOU HAVE BEEN WARNED!”

    Oh come on… is that the best you can do?

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