Newspoll: 57-43 to Labor in Victoria

Newspoll’s state polling onslaught today provides a morale-booster for another Labor government, this time Victoria’s, whose two-party lead over the Coalition has shot up to 57-43 from 51-49 two months ago. Labor’s primary vote is up eight points to 45 per cent, the Coalition is down four to 37 per cent and the Greens are down two to 13 per cent. Like yesterday’s Queensland poll, this one offers anomalous results on leadership ratings, perhaps indicating that both governments have benefited from the surge in support for Kevin Rudd. Ted Baillieu’s satisfaction rating is up six points to 42 per cent, while his dissatisfaction is down two to 38 per cent. These figures are competitive with John Brumby, who is on 45 per cent (down three) and 42 per cent (steady). However, Brumby’s lead as preferred premier has increased from 45-27 to 49-27.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

21 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Labor in Victoria”

  1. Newspoll Vic 57/43 not surprising …good sensible balansed Labor Govt , and inefectual opposition Newspoll Q’ld similar huge Labor lead and ditto reasons ..sensibl policy based balansed Labor Govt , and inefectual opposition Whereas NSW Labor 26% because they ar an old incompetent Labor govt and sooner they’re gone th better for NSW people even though opposition there ar ahead by default , but thats all need in politcs

    Dificult policy problams Vic Gov faces is water , and equity of this scarce resourse , and varying options chosedn for securing future supplies

  2. I wonder if the release of the transport plan has caused this jump for Labor? Although it’s a bit of a half-baked and ‘construction won’t commence until 2012’ type policy, the public do tend to like these Grand Plans.

  3. A surprise but there again maybe not!!

    The Government is under pressure on Public Transport & Water policy!! The Government is winning the water debate, I cannot say the same for the Public Transport debate.

    This issue should be hurting the Government but there is a small problem the opposition are a complete non event inregards to Public Transport! Red Ted has disappeared, lets take the piece meal response to the Transport plan, Red Ted comes out critises it, but when asked for a policy response he gives the o I’m not here to tell you mine line.

    MDMConnell is crroect Victorians like Governments to get on with the job of building things, Premier John Brumby has been outstanding in this regards, sadly the Liberals are very lazy and if this lack of effort keeps up they may well loses seats come next election day!! now that would be irony.

  4. It’s interesting that Ted’s satisfaction rating has risen in the period where he has pretty well gone underground. That says it all I think. Good bloke but uninspiring at best.

  5. Piping Shrike, I just read your blog post on the recent CC debate, but I can’t figure out how to comment so I’ll just say it here quickly, very well written and lots of good points. Thanks.

  6. The Piping Shrike!!!!!!

    I agree with Oz!!!! your blog post makes several Interesting points, the one that stood out the most was the comment about where the public really stand on this issue and the meida seem to misunderstand the reality that the public like strong leadership beyond the hip pocket.

    Previously I have written here that I opposed the signing of Kyoto, and there was one reason for that position, the gains were so small yet over 200,000 jobs could have been lost if Kyoto was actually inacted.

    I have long argued that if we are to cut jobs we need to have a benefit that matches, I suspect its like anything people want to see the benefits of a policy but as is too often the case in this country the media plays to headlines and not the details!!!!!!

  7. a deserved result but hardly time for Labor to become complacent. After 6 months back in Victoria after nearly 10 years in the topend, it seems to me that John Brumby is travelling well. He must have stolen Steve Brack’s picture of Dorian Gray. Doesn’t seem to have aged at all, either in appearance or energy. The 2 black clouds are water and traffic.

  8. It is transport in general not just traffic. Arrogance also has the potential to get at Brumby. I think that the Greens are going to get more of the vote than they did last time. This result is not deserved by the government because they make toomany bad decisions.

  9. i find it unbelievable that after 10 years in opposition, they have not come up with one substantial big ticket promise/policy. The only things i can think of were there promise to keep eastlink toll free, which they broke and ended up with a half-baked half-price thing, and the plan to abolish zone 3 in public transport, which labor stole. I think the Vic (as well as Qld) opposition could learn alot from Rudd’s strategy

  10. Who knows? But as the past few months have shown, the polls change pretty damn quickly.

    I have a feeling that there’s a good chance Queensland could fall, NSW definately, don’t know much about South Australia and a funny feeling that the situation in Victoria could turn quite bad for Labor quite quickly (maybe a Lib leadership change is on the cards?).

    The Libs are at a structural disadvantage in Tasmania and the ACT. The NT will fall next time around.

    The fact is there isn’t much of a difference between the policies of the major parties here (or in any Western country for that matter). However, that doesn’t preclude the public from getting tired of a particluar party, ousting them and replacing them with a slightly different one. The Conservatives are on the ascent in the UK after nearly a decade in the wildnerness. The Democrats in the US seized power last month and the ALP did the same last year after dithering around for 11 years. It’s called electoral gravity.

  11. Interesting comments from Kroger!

    The Liberal Party is very lazy in Victoria, when the Kennett Government was in office every night you would have one of several people appear without failure (Bracks, Brumby, Thwaites, Pike)

    You can go weeks without seeing or hearing anything from the Liberals, Red Ted appears unable to show what he is about, now going back to 1999 for a moment Bracks and Brumby started outlining the ALP policies a good 9-12 months out from election day and they hammered the same message over and over to the point that come September 1999 most people knew excelty what the ALP stood for.

    Interestingly the last good campaign ran by the Liberal Party was the 1998 federal campaign but since then they have relised on the ALP to slip up.

  12. fredn @ 17

    Thanks for the link. Best very short summary of the geopolitics of the melting Arctic sea-ice that I have come across.

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