Newspoll: 57-43 to Labor in Queensland

After yesterday’s New South Wales disaster, Labor today enjoys a surprisingly strong result from Newspoll’s quarterly survey of Queensland state voting intention. Labor’s primary vote has shot up seven points to 45 per cent, while the Liberal Nationals are down four to 37 per cent. The gap on two-party preferred (remembering the limitations of this measure under optional preferential voting) has blown out from 51-49 to 57-43. However, the bounce is strangely not reflected in Anna Bligh’s personal ratings: her satisfaction rating is down four points to 50 per cent and her dissatisfaction is up eight to 36 per cent, while Lawrence Springborg has narrowed the preferred premier gap from 53-27 to 49-30. Springborg’s satisfaction rating is steady on 45 per cent, while his dissatisfaction is up two to 32 per cent.

For more on state politics, my end-of-year coast-to-coast overview is freely available at Crikey.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

13 comments on “Newspoll: 57-43 to Labor in Queensland”

  1. Wow, banana benders are swinging all over the shop. This is shaping up to be the most open race Queensland has had in decades. *Grabs popcorn*

  2. This will be interesting. As the mining sector slows down the state budget will come under pressure and they have just raised a bunch of fees and charges. OTOH they do seem to be doing something about the congestion and infrastructure needs in SEQ.

    As an aside, I have been checking the Courier Mail website lately and, amybe its just me, but it seems to have improved. Do others have a view on this. Maybe I’m just biased by living in Adelaide, where anything would look better than the Trashvertiser.

  3. Ryan, was it the Liberal National Party or the urgers at the Curious Snail who sold you on the early election theory? Both have been running hard on an early election is a good election as it suits their purposes but I fail to see the need for the enthusiasm.

  4. Actually Ryan,I’ve changed my mind on the popcorn eating. Perhaps it might pay you to buy a short term popcorn futures contract. Hell, take out another on behalf of Queensland Labor too.

    I think that you have succinctly pointed out the key to analyzing this poll. The more the General Public are convinced we are near an election the less they like the Liberal National Party and its election chances.

  5. Steve

    Or maybe the electorate like WA are trying to make the ALP comfortable in going to the poll (like WA) and on the day the election is call, the Qld poll led disappears (like WA)

  6. [on the day the election is call, the Qld poll led disappears (like WA)]

    Ah, yes, indeed Dovif, now where have I seen that very thing happen before? Oh, I remember it was the previous two Queensland elections where Springborg leapt out of hibernation and fellover immediately the election was called.

    I will be watching with interest to see if he can perform better in his third crack at Opposition Leader but I really think that the talent behind Springborg is extremely thin and brittle. September could be an interesting month. Wonder if the Liberal National Party candidates out waving at cars every day will be sick of it by then?

  7. A Liberal National primary vote the same as the last election well done Liberal National Party. Two years in Opposition and absolutely no progress.

  8. [Shhh troll, they’ll come for you soon enough.]

    Not between now and the next election if the Liberal National Party can’t get a primary vote bigger than the 37% they got at the last election drubbing.

  9. Another thing too: how are you going to increase the primary vote when the Western Australian option of changing leaders at the last minute doesn’t seem likely? Bring back Jeff Seeney or make Shane Knuth a novelty leader perhaps? That’s the problem with parties without policy development due to laziness the only other option is reshuffle leaders.

    The September election will be fun!

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