Super size me

I guess we’re not getting a Morgan poll tomorrow, so a stand-alone post is required to note recent developments. To wit:

Antony Green has crunched the numbers from the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ latest state and territory population figures and concluded that yet another new seat will need to be created in Queensland next year, again at the expense of New South Wales. Queensland will thus have boomed from 26 seats to 30 in little over a decade, having earlier gained Blair in 1998, Bonner in 2004 and Flynn in 2007. New South Wales lost Gwydir in 2007.

• The Australian Electoral Commission has announced that the finalised new federal boundaries for Western Australia will be gazetted on December 18, and maps published henceforth.

• Possum reckons “it’s time to rethink political demographics&#148, and explains why across a two-part epic here and here.

• A constitutional crisis is brewing in Canada that has some excited observers invoking the example of Australia in 1975. The election on October 14 saw Stephen Harper’s Conservative minority government re-elected, but again requiring the support of Bloc Québécois. However, Bloc Québécois has now signed an accord with the Liberal Party and leftist New Democrats due to dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of the financial crisis. Harper reportedly plans to ask that Governor-General Michaëlle Jean prorogue the parliament so it will not sit until the budget is presented in January. This would avert a sitting on December 8 at which Harper’s government would likely be defeated on a no-confidence motion, and allow him time to pick apart the Liberal-Bloc-NDP deal. This raises the question of whether Jean ought to grant a prorogation to a Prime Minister who might not have the confidence of the House.

UPDATE (5/12/08): Jean agrees to prorogue parliament until January 26. Ben Raue at The Tally Room expresses his displeasure, and proposes reforms to the appointment of prime ministers (citing the practice in the Australian Capital Territory), the scheduling of parliament and the timing elections. I am a little more sympathetic to Jean’s decision, on account of the Liberals’ evident state of disarray – although I can buy the idea that it’s not the Governor-General’s role to make such judgements.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,278 comments on “Super size me”

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  1. WOMAN HECKLER: If I was your wife I’d put poison in your tea.
    WINSTON CHURCHILL: If I was your husband, madam, I would drink it.

  2. goosebumps whenever I see the tally room footage.

    Btw is reith a flipperhead or what,he is suspicously looking more and more like a scarecrow as time goes on

  3. “In your case, we’ll make it retrospective” — Whitlam to a pro-life heckler demanding to know what he’d do about abortion.

  4. Same, Gusface.

    The Howard Years just keeps giving more evidence why not to vote Liberal.

    Today we got a re-affirmation of their sincere belief in Workchoices.

  5. Why oh Why can’t one Liberal MP in a safe seat give it up for Mal Brough, if he’s not in the next Parliament the Queensland Liberals are a disgrace.

  6. [Why oh Why can’t one Liberal MP in a safe seat give it up for Mal Brough, if he’s not in the next Parliament the Queensland Liberals are a disgrace.]
    You don’t need him Glen, he’s self interested, and completely over rated.

    He’s a male Julie Bishop, you don’t need a male version when you’ve got Bishop.

  7. Lady Astor to Winston – You are a drunk !

    Churchill reply – You are ugly. Tomorrow I will be sober and YOU will still be ugly !

  8. Slipper is the obvious candidate to go. Brough lives in Fisher after all.

    Alternatively, the redistribution committee might create a new seat for him.

  9. On the one hand Howard said if he ratified Kyoto Australian industry would be killed.

    On the other hand Howard said ratifying Kyoto would be a symbolic issue that would have no effect.

  10. ShowsOn i like the man and i think he still has much to give to public life.
    I’d have him as leader of our Party.

    If i had a choice between him and Turnbull id pick Brough anyday.
    Brough is different to many politicians in that the man is not a phoney…

    Slipper or Somylay should go for Mal Brough in 2010.

  11. Best apocryphal Churchill/Astor exchange:

    Churchill: Madam, would you sleep with me for five million pounds?
    Astor: My goodness, Mr. Churchill… Well, I suppose… we would have to discuss terms, of course…
    Churchill: Would you sleep with me for five pounds?
    Astor: Mr. Churchill, what kind of woman do you think I am?!
    Churchill: Madam, we’ve already established that. Now we are haggling about the price.

  12. [ShowsOn i like the man and i think he still has much to give to public life.
    I’d have him as leader of our Party.]
    He couldn’t even keep a seat on a big margin!

  13. The LNP has been very unhelpful in making life tough for Mal when he was head of the QLD Libs…i just hope he decides to have another crack.

    I dont care what they say about Brough, he’s a top bloke and one of the better performers of Howard’s last term if not the best.

  14. Brough is a time bomb. He still thinks he commands and people jump.

    WRONG WRONG.

    Please fibs find him a seat. Please.

    Make him Dear Leader. Way to go !!!

  15. [The LNP has been very unhelpful in making life tough for Mal when he was head of the QLD Libs…i just hope he decides to have another crack.]
    How can he run if he doesn’t join the LNP?

  16. [How can he run if he doesn’t join the LNP?]

    If you’re a member of the LNP in QLD do you caucus with the Nats or Libs Federally? How is this going to work with Joyce…

  17. [If you’re a member of the LNP in QLD do you caucus with the Nats or Libs Federally? ]
    For the current members, it is based on their previous affiliation.

    For new members they have a choice.

    Joyce is with the Nats.

  18. Thoroughly enjoyed Howard’s end (no pun intended). My god what a bunch of selfish and/or gutless pr**ks, and Reith, completely mad or what? One thing I took away from it is that if tip ever had the guts and time to embed himself he could have won back the centre right (which is where a lot of PBers say the Libs have to go). I still think he’s a credible threat to Rudd if they ever give him some clear space to set up a mission statement. I know he’s been seen as the lion in Oz, but he’s potentially up for rehabilitation, as much as the thought galls me.

  19. I think Snedden did the most self damage with either,

    “I didn’t lose, I just didn’t get enough votes to win the election” or “Everwhere I go, people say there is trouble”.

  20. [On the one hand Howard said if he ratified Kyoto Australian industry would be killed.

    On the other hand Howard said ratifying Kyoto would be a symbolic issue that would have no effect.]

    Clearly a conviction politician

  21. Well, mesmerized as I was by the final ep of THY, the Black Helicopters were VASTLY more interesting.

    Today, all day, the SAS has been running Blackhawk exercises across mid-western Sydney. This afternoon they flew about a thousand feet over where I’m working, but tonight was the piece de resistance. Just as Johnny got stuck into Lie #3,458, all four of them flew right over our house at 500 feet. I think it must be the aviation beacon at Pennant Hills that attracts them, just a k from here as the helo flies.

    Shook us to the rafters, scared the dogs, even caused the cat to put his ears back 15 degrees. Most amazing, Her Indoors (not known for Black Helicopter sentimentality) came out with me onto the back deck and we watched them together, thumping, rifting the air, rattling the windows, terrifying the fruit bats of Beecroft Bush, as they banked hard across our little forest valley.

    I felt a certain pride, and a definite exhiliration. Strange, really, I’m not particularly martial, but I even felt a little bit of pride that these guys were exercising in the dark, on a moonless night, to practioce saving our bacons should we Sydneysiders be attacked by terrorists.

    I often wondered why the SAS types train to combat armed insurgents, when its bombs (and their indiscriminate slaughter) that are the usual tools of terrorism. I mean, terrorists don’t get involved in shooting wars do they? I guess Mumbai solved that riddle… some of them like to see the whites of their victims’ eyes before they cut them down.

    WOW! Another pass! Opaque shadows against a black sky. Rattled the rafters again. Bob the dog is hiding under my office desk. Cozzie (the other dog) is out with us on the deck. They were so close we could almost touch them. The cat has gone to sleep. He hasn’t seen it all beofre, but he’d like us to believe he has.

    Youse’d have to admit, why watch old Baldy Bill tell more lies when the airborne put on a show like that… and for free.

    What was that Johnny Araldite was saying about “There was no deal?”

    Who cares, actually?

  22. tink read that McMahon PM announsed electon for 2nd Dec 1972…and history Gough gets up and says somting like , well 2nd December is very appropriate as its th anniversary date of when another ramshackle consevative mob got done… at austerlitz

  23. Heckler:what are you going to call it george(referring to his large belly)
    George Reid:”If its a boy,I’ll call it after myself,If its a girl ,I’ll call it Victoria.But if,as I strongly suspect,it is nothing but piss and wind,I’ll name it after you”

    best line ever

  24. The ‘newness’ of Rudd was a contrast to the ‘staleness’ of Howard?

    How about the ‘sincerity’ of Rudd was a contrast to the ‘deceit’ of Howard.

    (Sorry, Qld – an hour behind!)

  25. OZ
    “He’s done nothing to implement Labor’s election policy of 20% renewable energy by 2020”

    How would you know with a one liner nonsense You could start by looking at RET schme

  26. Despite my fascination with the Black Helicopters, I did notice Joe Hockey pooh-poohing Work Choices, without mentioning once that he was its Chief Spruiker.

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