Essential Research: 58-42

The latest weekly Essential Research survey (which gets its own thread in Newspoll off-weeks when there’s no Galaxy poll on the Sunday) has Labor recovering from an unheralded dip over the past fortnight, its two-party lead increasing from 56-44 to 58-42. Also featured are questions on leadership preference, which find Julia Gillard favoured over Malcolm Turnbull 39 per cent to 34 per cent and Kevin Rudd favoured over Gillard 63 per cent to 14 per cent, and expectations regarding the economy.

UPDATE (2/12/08): Today’s Courier-Mail provides further figures from yesterday’s Galaxy poll of 800 voters in Queensland, showing 38 per cent would like to go back to John Howard and Peter Costello, against 54 per cent preferring Kevin Rudd and Wayne Swan.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

706 comments on “Essential Research: 58-42”

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  1. “and tink her (Julie Bishops) consevative power base is stronger than that anyway”

    William Bowe
    “Perhaps more to the point, the WA Liberals account for 20% of the party room”

    I downplayed th numbers in that quote only to reely highlight almost insummountable reel life politcal problems Tunbull would face in any event trying to ‘sack’ his treasurer , which seemed to hav been overlooked Cabinet size of WA Liberals makes th suggestion pie in sky now , with later ‘reshuffle a thin window out On other hand Treasury is a dificult portfolio and Julie Bishop may improve , things ar possible , and do not tink she comes accross TV medium genericly as poorly as some feel , its more her handle on job itself at moment eg arguing Lib GFC alternatives

  2. What a pity that Essential Research did not ask head-to-head questions about Julie Bishop and Julia Gillard as PPMs! Miaworr.

    In trying to sort out the decision-making processes in the Credible Alternative Government I believe I have identified the following factions, but would be interested in other views:

    The Fud Faction (Hockey, Abbott, Minchin, Robb), the Nat Fud Faction (pretty well all of the Nats), the WA Mostly Crazy Right Faction (Bishop, Iron Bar, Haase, etc with help from individual Crazy Right folk from the other side of the Nullabor (Sophie, Alby et cetera); the Young Turks Faction (Hunt, Dutton, Keenan et al). Turnbull and Costello are factions of One, each; the Odds and Sods non-Faction – folk like Broadbent who really no home in today’s Liberal Party, and Joyce, ditto for today’s National Party.

    For what has become a very narrow church they certainly have a lot of different congregations.

  4. More Pakistani’s, soldiers and civilians, have shed their blood and lost their lives in the so called “War on Terror” than any western country. Statements like that are ignorant and only highlight how token the “coalition” effort to tackle the problems of extremism is.

  5. Oz, interesting point of view…and, yes, probably a bit too much of a smart-arse comment from yours truly. On the other hand, how would you rate the role of Pakistan’s security organisations in the rise of the Taliban and the failure of Pakisatani central authority to assert itself in the tribal regions?

  7. “What a pity that Essential Research did not ask head-to-head questions about Julie Bishop and Julia Gillard as PPMs”

    Wouldn’t mean much evidensed by Gillard only leading Turnbull 39/34 whereas Rudd leading Tunrbull 63/14 I tink PPM is just Shanahans baby to irrlevantly talk about , approval ratings ar more important

    Essential Research seems to hav had past success , but wonder why they go for 50/50 male/femle when thaats not Aussie gender split Also wonder if they will decalre what th voting intentions ar of there total online panel seeing they did not use traditional off line methodologies to select th lot

    Tink you ar being restrictive on Liberal Party , which is reely a split of conseative and liberal and 1/2 ways …broken up by econamic and social leanings sometimes criss crossing , which Howard by strengh of personality & position moved Party completely consevative econamic and social….time is needed for many members to regain there former varying stanses , and at least 30% of Party follow th Costello position thats different to ‘howardism’ and especialy socialy That may take more than one opposition term subject to politcs and GFC As for Nats yhey’ve always been cowboys , often agricultural socialists but even more consevative socialy

  8. [On the other hand, how would you rate the role of Pakistan’s security organisations in the rise of the Taliban and the failure of Pakisatani central authority to assert itself in the tribal regions?]

    On the first point, pathetically. But two things have to be said about that. First, one can not neglect the role the US played in creating and supporting various extremist groups in the area, including the Taliban, and using the ISI as their proxy. For the majority of its history Pakistan has merely been a tool used by the US through corrupt dictators. The other part is regardless of elements within security services that are playing their own politics or being played by the US, the sacrifice and general level of crap most Pakistani’s put with up in terms of terrorism can not and should not be understated. We can talk about Bali and John Howard being in Washington during 9/11 all we like, but those guys are experiencing it almost every day. Just because they’re a developing, Islamic nation doesn’t mean that they somehow feel the impact less than we do.

    [failure of Pakisatani central authority to assert itself in the tribal regions?]

    The “Pakistani central authority” is so corrupt, decadent and bloated after half a century of sucking on Washington’s teat that it can’t assert itself in the capital let alone in the tribal areas. Tribal areas, it should be noted, where the locals are a different ethnicity, speak a different language and have different customs and laws. Tribal areas where the people were never really conquered or “domesticated” by the British. Tribal areas that are only part of Pakistan because of the hurried and botched caesarean section called “partition”.

  9. Amigo FINNS

    I’ve lost that song by some guy , something like ..can they hear me now , will they ever hear me , will they ever understand

    US FA…supported Shah of Iran (what there now) , Gaza (what there now) , suported in 80’s Saddamm (but what he became) , Iraq war (what there now) , non suport democrat Lebanon ( Southern Lebanon is Hezzbala is what there now) , armed Afghan insurgents against Soviets (what there now) , encouraged groups in nothern Pakistan (what there now) , suported Pakistan dictators like Mussaref ( and so Pakistan people tink of US what rhere principals ar now)………and dynamites to come ..India & Pakistan ar nuclear …and US still supports despotic Saudi Oil Sheiks (what there now…will not be in future , sooner or later) and that song…can they hear me now , will they ever hear me , will they ever understand

  10. Oz @ 108

    “We can talk about Bali and John Howard being in Washington during 9/11 all we like, but those guys are experiencing it almost every day. Just because they’re a developing, Islamic nation doesn’t mean that they somehow feel the impact less than we do.”

    Good point, and thank you also for the other comments.

    I would be curious about your views on ‘failed states’, perhaps Somalia? Perhaps Pakistan? and possible pathways to the future?

    Ron @ 109 That is one hell of a litany of “The US wuz here.” Not very inspiring.

  11. [Apparently he doesn’t want employers to be held accountable to the laws of the land.]

    That was also Howards and the rest of the libs big catch phrase, you can trust business to do the right thing, they don’t need all this regulation and imposition.

    I’ll trust business when they initiate that trust and replace their cash registers with honesty boxes.

  12. Amigo Ronnie,

    that was Don McLean’s Vincent, about Goghie:

    [And now I think I know what you tried to say to me
    how you suffered for your sanity
    how you tried to set them free.
    They would not listen
    they’re not
    list’ning still
    perhaps they never will.]

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dipFMJckZOM

    btw: on Pakistan. I just think there is a double standard here. Pakistan is an easy pick. Did anybody really blame and threaten Saudi with war even though the majority of the 911 terrorists were Saudis. Saudi’s wallet is too big for anybody to get upset with them.

    Dont forget, Pakistan best hotel was bombed and demolished few months ago.

  14. Ron 109

    I agree. You could add dictators in Chile and Argentina to the list as well.

    The problems in Pakistan predate the stupid US meddling. The invasion of Kashmir right back at independence in 1948 was home grown stupidity. A lot of Pakistani soldiers have died in a virtual civil war for control of the NW area. Debateable if that counts as a war on terror. Either way, the coutnry has been rife with fundamentalists for a long time. Does anyone remember the death squads in the 1980s?

    As for Saudi Arabia, well I argued that they and Pakistan better met Bush’s “axis of evil” criteria than Iraq did BEFORE the invasion, but nobody listens do dumb engineers.

  16. William, your intro is in error. The 63% to 14% result was Rudd over Gillard, not Rudd over Turnbull.

    (Maybe we can amuse ourselves inferring the Rudd/Turnbull figures, though. Gillard on 14% is ahead of Turnbull 39% to 34%, so that puts Turnbull at around 12%.)

  17. Oz @ 108,

    [
    Tribal areas that are only part of Pakistan because of the hurried and botched caesarean section called “partition”.
    ]

    Same arguement could be made that British colonial rule is the root (although not the only) cause of troubles in more than one place in Africa as well …..

  18. Could somebody please let me know if theres a clip somewhere of Julie Bishop doing the “claw” thing. I think it’s all a bit silly, but I would like to include it in a video I’m making.

  22. the Adelaide Advertiser has devoted a full page to the Gillard/Bishop incident with a huge pic of Bishop making the gesture, perhaps they’d better build a safety barrier in parliament, Bishop is so acting weird and erratic lately she might get a yen to bring her machete into question time.

  24. The GG may just refuse to accept Harper’s resignation if it comes to that…or force another election…Itep

    If Dion is made PM…it would be like having Simon Crean as PM what a joke…it’s because of the Sepratists that it makes it hard for the federalist parties to form government in Canada…i suspect the Canadian people wont be happy at Dion and the Liberals because they recieved their lowest ever % of the vote in the 2008 election since Confederation and just hold 70 odd seats the Tories were the most preferred party to Govern with 143 odd seats.

  26. Yes she would…it is in her power to call another election or refuse Harper’s resignation or Harper could proroge Parliament…

  27. If the same applies in Canada as in Australia, Antony Green’s recent comments would mean that a successful “no confidence” motion doesn’t necessarily mean the GG asks Dion if he can form a new Government. But if the coalition blocks supply, then it’s all over.

  28. If all the other parties block supply then Jean would probably call another election…i think it is obvious the Canadian people wanted Harper to govern them he won 143 seats and Dion lost 30 seats…if this does happen and Harper stays on I believe the Tories would win a majority in the next election.

  29. Mainly because the Bloc has said it would back the Red/Orange Coalition for 2.5 years…Harper could take it to the people that the Government was kept in power by people who want to destroy Canada…

  33. [There is a clear preference for Rudd and Swan over teh previous Howard/Costello leadership team]

    You have to love some of the comments posted to that article… the usual denials of polls because ‘everyone I talk to says otherwise’. Classic!

  35. Unaccustomed as I am to climbing up on hobby horses, I’m jumping aboard a favourite one of mine. Giddy up!

    The Kubler-Ross stages of grief are denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance. And they are WRONG. They don’t normally happen, they don’t happen in that order most times and they are not helpful.

    The myth of the stages of dying, death and grief
    http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_kmske/is_2_14/ai_n28565933/pg_1?tag=artBody;col1

  36. Dio

    (just a joke I’m as skeptical of psycho-babble as the next philosopher). Actually thats great news – then there is no guarantee the Libs will move past their current irrational world view in the foreaseeable future. 🙂

  37. Socrates

    The Libs current world view is seriously at odds with the reality of their situation. They have chosen to ignore all the evidence that they need to move on and do something differently. This has created enormous conflict in their psyches ie cognitive dissonance. They have a lot more pain to go through yet. Even the Repugs have taken their defeat in a more intellectually mature manner. I see Palin, Romney and Jindal are now in a three way tie to be their next candidate. Palin was way out ahead a few weeks ago.

  38. Agree on Palin – can you seriously imagine her winning in Florida, let alone California, New York and any of the other better educated eastern and western states which are now almost a lock for the democrats?

    Likewise the Libs – to hear some of them still push the union power genie in recent days (echoes of Workchoices rhetoric), when most people are more worried about losing their jobs if we go into recession. At least Howard was smart enough to lie about his GST plans until after he won the relevant election. His successors seem to prfer to lead with the chin.

  39. the opposition still cant believe they’ve been voted out by a fed up public and their born to rule mentality cant accept that they finally wore out their welcome, now they’re running around like headless chooks and the right hand cant seem to controll what the left hand is doing/saying or vice versa, their only hope is to get rid of the dead wood– theres quite a few swinging old logs there, they need to bring in new blood with bright modern ideas, until then Minchin, both Bishops, Iron Bar, Cozzie, Conan, Abbott and their ilk will only weigh them down

  40. This born to rule crap is just nonsense! One could argue that after the ALP lost in 1996…it’s just a weak argument to use…

    Say what you will about the tenants of Workchoices but unemployment was at 4% and under Labor’s IR policy it could got 6% +…not good at all.

  41. [Say what you will about the tenants of Workchoices but unemployment was at 4% and under Labor’s IR policy it could got 6% +…not good at all.]
    This sort of simplistic nonsense reflects badly on you Glen.

    It’s EASY getting unemployment low when the world economy is growing. It is HARD keeping unemployment low when most developed countries are either in recession, or on the brink of recession.

  42. Which is exactly why you need more flexibility that WCs provided…especially in this GLC. If unemployment continues to rise and Labor’s policy does nothing to stop it then the Opposition can score points…

  43. [Which is exactly why you need more flexibility that WCs provided…especially in this GLC.]
    What!? The world economy is bad, so it should be easier to sack people and pay them less?

    That’s dog eat dog, there is nothing fair or civil about such a policy.
    [If unemployment continues to rise and Labor’s policy does nothing to stop it then the Opposition can score points…]
    And Labor will be able to say “oh, we know what the Liberals’ solution is – bring back WorkChoices, get rid of everyone’s pay and conditions.”

    Turnbull is right, the less the Liberals talk about industrial relations the better for them politically.

  44. [Say what you will about the tenants of Workchoices but unemployment was at 4% and under Labor’s IR policy it could got 6% +…not good at all.]
    So you still think Workchoices was the bees knees Glen? You don’t think the world economic crisis is having any effect on unemployment and that in fact it is all the fault of Rudd’s IR policy? Fantasyland my friend, pure fantasy.

  45. [If unemployment continues to rise and Labor’s policy does nothing to stop it then the Opposition can score points…]
    Oh, I hope they try. I would love them to stand up for Workchoices at the next election.

  46. Actually I’m very pleased to see Glen and other Liberals still support the ideas behind Workchoices. The economic evidence showing its negative impact is beside the point. The public hate Workchoices. That hatred will only grow in tough times. Its a political deathsentence, and proves everything Labor have been saying about their ideological obsession is true.

  47. No i dont Gary…but the tenants behind it were good accept i would have simply kept the no disadvantage test on AWAs that came into being in 1996…Howard went further…bad move indeed.

  48. Ah, Glen! I do admire your consistency! You are a rock in a tumultuous world!

    It’s hard not to think that the Libs don’t really buy the legitimacy of last year’s election result, that it was all down to Howard hanging around for too long. “People Skills” Abbott is usually instructive in this regard (as he clearly has no control over when and about what he speaks), with his constant pleas that the Howard government “was a good government”.

    I’ve posted before that the Libs feel that 2007 was a protest vote gone wrong, and that once they can make the Oz public see what that they can see – that Rudd is a phony and a fraud – then the electorate will turn back to the rightful governing party. Glen is right to compare this to the ALP post-96; people like me just couldn’t believe that anyone would vote for Howard, so we kept making excuses for his wins. In ’96, Howard won because he wasn’t Keating, in ’98, Labor won the popular vote, in ’01, Howard won by exploiting xenophobia through Tampa …. it wasn’t until after 2004 that we on the Left started to realise, “hang on, the general public seem to actually like this bloke Howard”. The results of this realisation can be seen in Rudd’s approach last year, when he refused to engage in all the old wedges (NT, Haneef etc) and distanced himself from the “Howard Haters”.

    On this analogy, it’s only ALP-1997 for the Libs, but maybe Senator Fielding will have an affair with Mesmerelda over the summer and jump ship to the Liberals (a la Cheryl). But it also means they won’t even have a shot at winning until they learn to accept that they are now in Oppostion, something they are yet to demonstrate.

  49. [Say what you will about the tenants of Workchoices but unemployment was at 4% and under Labor’s IR policy it could got 6% +…not good at all.]

    What was the unemployment rate before WorkChoices came in Glen?

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