ACNielsen and Galaxy: 55-45

The latest federal ACNielsen poll, published in today’s Fairfax broadsheets, has Labor’s two-party lead down to 55-45 from 56-44 last month. Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating is down four points to 51 per cent and his disapproval is up five to 35 per cent, while Kevin Rudd is more or less steady on 70 per cent and 22 per cent. Also included are questions on the government’s economic management (positive) and expectations about the economy (surprisingly optimistic).

UPDATE: Galaxy has also produced a poll showing Labor leading 55-45. The poll has Labor on 43 per cent of the primary vote, the Coalition on 40 per cent and the Greens on 11 per cent. No mention of a sample size that I can see, but in Galaxy’s case it’s usually about 800 (UPDATE: It’s 1004 for Galaxy, 1400 for ACNielsen).

UPDATE 2: A surprise from Essential Research: they too have Labor’s lead at 55-45 in their weekly survey. This is down from 59-41 last week, and as far as I’m aware is the closest result they have thus far produced. Also featured are questions on which party is deemed best to handle various issues (huge leads to Labor on climate change, environment and industrial relations, narrow ones to Liberal on inflation, national security and economic management) and the car manufacturing industry assistance package (47 per cent approve, 35 per cent disapprove).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,045 comments on “ACNielsen and Galaxy: 55-45”

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  1. Socrate

    Wealthy retiree?

    My grand parents are on the pension and have a little money in their superannuation fund, that is actually the normal pensioner, who have a little bit of savings and need the pension to pay for their daily expenses

    “Given that their super payments had already been exempted from tax”

    Wrong. All super contribution carry entry tax of 15% or 46.5%, income in the superannaution fund is also taxed at 15%, money that had not been taxed going into a Superannuation fund, will still be taxed on the way out

    “Meanwhile the imputation credits also applied to non-pensioners, so would have had no impact on the proportion of average incomes that pensioners”

    Wrong the fact that a non-pensioner gets it does not means income of a pensioner does not increase. It is actually a red herring

    If you used to receive $70 of dividend, you now receive $70 + $30 as a tax refund, your income increase over 40%.

  2. [Of course all the nonsense about independent retailers is just that. Perth, which has a FuelWatch scheme has the same proportion of independent retailers as other states. The sky has not fallen in.]

    And don’t forget that it was a LIBERAL Govt, which introduced Fuelwatch in WA 🙂

  3. [+A petrol station cannot change their prices for a whole day, ie if I am an independant operator, and no one come to my service station for a whole day I am going to struggle staying competitive.]

    Rubbish. As ltep said, why aren’t all the independents out of business in WA then?

    [+All the caltex/BP etc has to do is incurred losses for a few month and all the independant is out of business, if everyone finds out they are cheapest and do not use the independant ones]

    Again rubbish, see above

    [+2 day FM gives out this information for free, why are you not using it! When I was in Melbourne the same happened]

    that information can be out of date by the time it goes to air

    [+While a Caltex/BP can report the price for all their petrol stations, all the independant operatior has to report theirs every day]

    wtf?

    [+I put in petrol when I run out, I normally do not plan on when I run out of petrol]

    Good for you. Lots of people actually take note of when they are running low and are on the look out for the cheapest petrol they can find, as they pass several petrol stations on the way home or out.

  4. OK, so we will just sit around waiting for FM to give us the latest petrol prices instead of us being able to ckeck that information for ourselves?

    There are two points to come out of Fuelwatch:

    1. The Liberals opposed it for oppositions sake.
    2. The Liberals sticking up for their rich oil company mates.

    Dovif, Glen, GP, you all must be so proud. SHAME SHAME SHAME!

  5. The Liberals sticking up for their private insurance “industry” mates.

    The Liberals sticking up for their distillery mates.

    The Liberals sticking up for their luxury car sellers / drivers mates.

    The Liberals handing a big stick to greedy employers (SerfChoices).

    Shame, Liberals, shame.

  6. The Ford plant decision is surprising but pleasing. Hopefully they’ll continue developing the six as it’s a good engine. They can go back to smaller capacities with the block for fuel economy as well as continue the development of turbos on it. It’s a proven performer with LPG and they can look to cylinder on demand technology as well. Ford don’t have to get out of large rear wheel cars. There will always be a market for these, but they’ll need to find export markets for them to be sustainable.

  7. There were four independent petrol stations in my area before Woolies and Coles got the go ahead to sell fuel using vouchers. One has now been leveled and the site supports a new car dealership, one has been boarded up for about 4 years – not sure what the plan for it is, one is now used as a fruit and veg shop and the fourth is a cleared block with a for sale sign on it. I’m not in WA where apparently the independents are still doing OK.

  8. Tuesday morning, the petrol station on the main road into town was selling ULP at $1-10/L and had so many customers cars were blocking lanes on one of the access roads. Obviously, those queuing thought it was cheap. Yet they could have got it for 3.2 cents less at another outlet less than 500 metres away without having to queue. In fact when I passed there wasn’t a customer in sight. With Fuelwatch there probably would have been.

  9. The Liberal Party sticking up for their rich mates; who can pay themselves what they like REGARDLESS of their success or failure, and paying their employees what they like under workchoices!

    SHAME SHAME SHAME!

  10. MF, well apparently, according to the liberals, we should drive around in a 10km radius checking out where the cheapest fuel is and then drive back to where the cheapest was only to find that the price has changed.

    Shame Shame Shame!

  11. Dovif

    Less anecdote (which can be chosen to prove anything) and more norms please.

    Regarding wealthy retirees, it is unfashionable to say it but self-funded retirees are the wealthiest sector of the population.

    Super payment tax was concessional; still lower than tax on the minimum wage. Only excess contributions for people earning in the top marginal tax bracket had super taxed at 46.5%. If you or these groups claim that those individuals need more assistance I strongly disagree. I hope the appeal is ignored as it deserves to be.

    You mis-construed my last claim: I was referring to the proportion of the average wage represented by pensions, which FELL under Howard. Now these Liberal (party member?) rent-an-oldie protest groups are complaining that it should increase. Again my question – why didn’t they complain when Howard didn’t increase the rate?

  12. This might help a bit.

    [If you are seeking to display heavily discounted promotional prices for a short duration, these can not be accepted for display onto the MotorMouth network.

    However MotorMouth are keen to ensure consumers are made aware of all promotional prices and we will display details in the News Alert section of the MotorMouth website. Promotional prices can be advised to Motormouth up to 24 hours in advance. ]

    http://mypriceboard.com/

  13. “why didn’t they complain when Howard didn’t increase the rate?”

    Perhaps they were cowed by Howard (their Otherwise Hero). Or perhaps they weighed their disgruntlement against their delight about his arch neo-liberal decisions on Iraq, refugees, workplace reform etc.

  14. This Liberal front, the Pensioners Coalition, IMO run the risk of hurting the cause of pensioners as a whole. I mean, they’ve just been doled out more than a thousand dollars per pensioner (to be received in time for Christmas), and here they are, just weeks after being advised of their windfall, protesting again.

    While the economy goes into extremely unsettled waters, with the likelihood that everyone will be affected and have to tighten their belts, we have these Liberals with their hands out, grasping, grasping, giving all (or other) pensioners a bad name.

  15. Of course, being “good” Liberals, they would no doubt despise the idea of social security assistance being given to other (equally, or perhaps more needy) groups such as the unemployed, single mothers and invalid pensioners.

  16. Cuppa

    Precisely – there are many groups more in need, with less means, than self-funded retirees. The whole point of super tax concessions was to get this group OFF the aged pension system. There is very little justification to give them more, on grounds of need or equity. I have much more sympathy for carers, those on disabled pensions, or aged pensioners solely dependant on the aged pension for income.

  17. Should the PM come out and tell these whinging pensioners to grow up and stop behaving like spoilt children?

    The absolute undisputed mathematical fact is that funding for all welfare recipients fell astronomically in real terms under Hero Rodente, and is rising under Labor. If these pensioners seriously believe that a conservative government cares for their well being and represents their best interests, they are a serious pack of delusional ignorant old fools!

  18. The new battle-cry for the Howardista “pensioners” (aka self-funded retireees)
    “What do we want?”
    “More money!”
    “When do we want it”
    “I can’t remember.”

  19. Helen Coonan, now she is good. The shadow foreign minister has come out and said that what Howard said about Obama was acceptable because Obama at the time had not denounced terrorism.

    The Liberals have kept criticising Labor for appointing a set number of women as members, and not like the Liberals based on merit.

    Have a look at the talent on both sides!

    Coonan, the two Bishops, they must be so proud LOL.

  20. Of course a union for pensioners is going to do all it can to pressure the government for a pay increase to its members. One way to put a lot of pressure onto the Government is via the media. I’m finding all this outrage a little hard to understand.

  21. ltep

    partly its the inconsistency – this group of self proclaimed “pensioner advocates” said nothing during the Howard years, even though the relative position of pensioners then slipped much further, despite that government having ample means to address the problem.

    For that matter, its also a question of their legitimacy. They are not a union. Who elected them? Who do they represent? Who funds them?

    But most of all, for me its the (ill) legitimacy of their cause, as per my previous posts.

  22. http://news.smh.com.au/national/australia-to-sign-transpacific-pact-20081120-6cjh.html

    [Australia is set to sign up to a trans-Pacific trade pact which could lay the foundations for a free trade agreement in the wider Asia-Pacific region.

    Canberra is expected to announce Australia will join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) initiative this weekend when 21 regional leaders gather for the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Lima.

    A recent United States decision to join the grouping made up of Singapore, New Zealand, Chile and Brunei has boosted the profile of the little known accord.]

  23. this lot tried to draw me in to their little schemes, i just reported them to major crime at the time.
    this idea came from Alan’s trial when a witness, Mr. B, said VE told him they were going to make a movie of Alan’s torture and death, i dont believe senior members of the judiciary are involved in the “family” maybe a couple of minor members at a stretch and as far as i know no movies were ever made.

    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24680559-5006301,00.html

  24. [Of course a union for pensioners is going to do all it can to pressure the government for a pay increase to its members. One way to put a lot of pressure onto the Government is via the media. I’m finding all this outrage a little hard to understand.]
    No argument there but I think it is all about timing ltep. The fact is the government is about to hand them a large lump sum with a long standing committment to better their situation in the next budget. Given that is the case, why the union action? It would be different if the government was arguing against what they want but they’re not.
    It really is not a good look for the pensioners at this point in time.

  25. Now I’m beginning to get really p’d off.

    The Australian runs with a story the first sentence of which says in part “David Hick’s father has made an emotional plea to Kevin Rudd not to impose a second control order on his son …”

    Never mind that the story does not report one word that Terry Hicks has said which refers to Kevin Rudd or any requested intercession by him.

    Never mind that it is an issue entirely (and properly) outside any powers that Kevin Rudd possesses.

    Never mind that Kevin Rudd has said not one word on the issue.

    Suddenly Kevin Rudd is involved because some half arsed Murdoch flake says he is.

    Now watch the press quote themselves as authority for the proposition.

    And for the record, may I say that David Hicks, fool that he is, is owed a profound apology for the abuse of power exercised over him by the Howard Government, and its abrogation of its duty to protect him to the limits of the law. But that does not in any way impact on whether or not, on an objective overview by a lawful and competent authority, he poses a risk to our country.

    That, unlike in the days of the Howard Regime, is for a proper court to decide, not Mr Rudd or anyone else.

  26. This makes a nonsense out of the Oz article.

    [Australian Federal Police say they will not seek to extend a control order on former Guantanamo Bay inmate David Hicks.

    The convicted terrorism supporter on Thursday spoke publicly for the first time, saying he was worried his current control order, due to expire in December, may be extended.

    But the Australian Federal Police (AFP) said no extension would be sought.

    “Following extensive consultation with a number of agencies, the AFP has decided it will not be seeking a further control order in respect of Mr Hicks,” the AFP said in a statement.

    “The AFP has today advised the attorney-general and Mr Hicks’ legal representative of its position.”]

    http://news.smh.com.au/national/no-new-control-order-for-hicks-afp-20081120-6bss.html

  27. And, by the way, you can see where it’s going.

    If the court removes the control order, Rudd is soft on terrorism.

    If the court extends it, Rudd is just as bad as the previous regime.

  28. [because the then senator had not made it clear he was against terrorism at the time the comments were made.]

    I would think it would be proper to assume that all US politicians and most certainly 100% of Governors, Senators and candidates for the Presidency would at the very minimum be against terrorism toward the USA and its allies. The vast majority of Americans would of course be against it as would Australians.

    So is Coonan saying there was something about Obama’s character that made it proper to assume that he could be in favour of terrorism and up until the time he made it obvious there was some doubt?

    I think that is more offensive than Howard’s original statement which we all interpreted as an attempt to help the Republican party by dissing on him. Coonan however is now making a character assessment of Obama. She thought it was reasonable to assume he could have been a supporter of terrorism. Thanks a lot.

    The Libs desperately using any argement to rjustify obviously bad acts. Turnbull already went some way to disowning Howard’s statements the other day, now Coonan adds more insult to Obama. I think the Libs would do much better of people like Bishop and Coonan actually didn’t speak. And quite often Turnbull for that matter.

  29. [This is bullcrap about Hicks, being a free man after a couple of months…i mean for gods sake what is wrong with the law??]

    How long was he incarcerated for?

  30. Dio,

    Have you seen this? 😀

    [
    The Washington Post reports that, beyond the vetting, there may be another roadblock to Hillary Clinton’s Cabinet seat: a clause in the Constitution.

    It’s called the Constitution of the United States, specifically, Article One, Section Six, also known as the emoluments clause. (“Emoluments” means things like salaries.) It says that no member of Congress, during the term for which he was elected, shall be named to any office “the emoluments whereof shall have been increased during his term.” This applies, we’re advised, whether the member actually voted on the raises or not.

    In Clinton’s case, during her current term in the Senate, which began in January 2007, cabinet salaries were increased from $186,600 to $191,300.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/13/hillary-clinton-secretary_n_143735.html
    ]

  31. Glen, I suppose the good cookies are those corporate bosses from GMH who are asking congress for $Billions to keep them afloat for another 6 months, and those mega rich (pay themselves anything) corporate bosses responsible for the GFC.

    Hicks was caught playing war games with the Taliban. Bush had in the past made deals with the Taliban before 9/11.

    Given a choice, those corporate bosses (or even Bush) should do Guantanamo, before Hicks.

  32. Has anyone heard of the Enhanced Primary Care Program? This was the Rat govt. Dental scheme for people with “a chronic medical condition and complex care needs and your oral health must be impacting on, or likely to impact on, your general health.”

    A chronic medical condition is one that has been or is likely to be present for at least six months. It may include, but is not limited to, conditions such as asthma, cancer, cardiovascular illness, diabetes mellitus, arthritis, mental illness, musculoskeletal conditions and stroke.

    Complex care needs means that you are receiving ongoing care from a multidisciplinary team, which includes your GP and at least two other health or care providers.

    “In line with its election commitment, the Government planned to close the Medicare chronic disease dental scheme to all patients by 1 July 2008, and to re-direct the savings to its new dental programs (Commonwealth Dental Health Program and Medicare Teen Dental Plan). However, on 19 June 2008, the Senate blocked its closure. On 16 September 2008, the Senate blocked the Government’s second attempt to close the scheme.”

    I qualify, in spades, for this program. But, as I have found out, it is impossible to access. 8 weeks and zero progress. Even if I could get the relevant Medicare approval can I find a Dentist who will do work under the EPC scheme? NO.

    Come on Senators scrap this sham scheme, that no one can access and that Dentists won’t join. It was a Rat Con at its sleaziest. 🙁

  33. Clarke and Dawe were excellent doing up Peter Reith on the 7.30 Report.

    To this day I rate Reith the sleaziest grub that I have ever seen in parliament.

  34. #898

    Centre,

    Its hard to nominate who is a the biggest GRUB in the the last Federal government. How can single one out? A whole cabinet of rightwing workchoice loving baffoons. GRUBS the lot of them!!! King GRUB Howard got the boot from his own electorate…how sweet.

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