ACNielsen: 55-45 to Labor in Victoria

After a patchy run for John Brumby in recent polling, ACNielsen today gives strong reason to think his Victorian government is not headed down the same path as its counterparts in New South Wales. The survey of 1009 voters has Labor leading 55-45 on two-party preferred, and 44 per cent to 39 per cent on the primary vote. Approval and disapproval ratings are 45 per cent and 36 per cent for Brumby, against 37 per cent and 35 per cent for Opposition Leader Ted Baillieu. Brumby leads 52 per cent to 30 per cent as preferred premier.

Subject for discussion: what are Baillieu’s chances of making it to the next election, due in almost exactly two years? Waiting in the wings is Terry Mulder, Shadow Minister for Public Transport and Roads.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

24 comments on “ACNielsen: 55-45 to Labor in Victoria”

  1. I can’t be the only one who finds constant references to ‘the narrowing’ not in the slightest amusing.

    I don’t see Baillieu lasting much longer, and think they need to give anyone new a substantial amount of time to settle in. If worst comes to worst they can resurrect Baillieu Barnett style.

  2. Typical abysmal result for the Victorian Liberals. These guys have to be the worst opposition in the nation. They’ve been in opposition for nearly a decade and have yet to lead in a single opinion poll. Pretty pathetic since the government is fairly mediocre.

  3. What did the last ACN poll show? Last Newspoll was down from 54-46 to 51-49. At least if there’s been a similar 3% movement we can say it’s consistent, even if the numbers are different. Otherwise who knows what’s going on. Personally, I’d be inclined to split the difference, as 53-47 seems a fair indication of where both parties are. Certainly our government has been nowhere near as bad as NSW (admittedly that’s not hard), or even WA. I wouldn’t expect to see the Liberals leading 56-44 down here any time soon.

    Since I tend to believe governments lose rather than oppositions winning, I doubt changing the leader will affect the Liberals’ fortunes much one way or the other. If Brumby still looks OK in 2010 he’ll be elected, if he stuffs it up he’ll be out.

  4. [I can’t be the only one who finds constant references to ‘the narrowing’ not in the slightest amusing.]
    It isn’t compulsory to laugh.

  5. MDMConnell, there is no reason why the two polls would be the same. Newspoll state polls are accumulated polls. Newspoll do fortnightly Federal polling and ask state questions at the same time. All their in-between election polls are done by accumulating the state questions over a cycle until a valid sample size is reached. So NSW and VIC get an accumulated Newspoll evry 2 months, Queensland every 3 months, WA and SA every 4 months. When an election comes around, Newspoll then do single sample pllls, one in the last week of the campiagn, and depending if there is enough interest, in the first week of the campaign.

    The Nielsen poll is a new poll, done in the last week or two, not accumulated over 2 months. Done at different time,s it may be perfectly valid for the two polls to have different results.

  6. “Pretty pathetic since the government is fairly mediocre.”

    A pretty mediocre Labor government beats a shambolic Liberal government any day.

  7. bob1234, after half a days work, I’ve resolved that old South Australian election problem. My table is correct and the fact the 2PP is less than the primary vote is because the 2PP is not calculated from the primary votes. Fuller explanation in the AC Nielsen federal poll channell where you asked me.

  8. [I can’t be the only one who finds constant references to ‘the narrowing’ not in the slightest amusing.]
    Not only “it isn’t compulsory to laugh”, Shows On, but it’s also not compulsory to read it or take any notice of it, just like any other opinion or idea expressed on this blog.
    [Pretty pathetic since the government is fairly mediocre.]
    Some seem to express these sentiments as a statement of fact. Actually, that’s an opinion which ALL governments have thrown at them from time to time, particularly from opponents and some disillusioned supporters. Nothing new there.

  9. As I think that I have posted before but not in these exact words.

    The usual Liberal Party thing is to sack a Leader just after an election defeat but the current Victorian Liberal Party practice is to dump their leader before an election defeat.

  10. #8

    Wasn’t intended to be profound, of course! I think it’s important to state the bleeding obvious since we’re all guilty of over-analysing polls and the like.

    Key point, obviously, is that panic dumping of an Opposition leader is often pointless. The Vic Liberals have tried this before the last two elections and hasn’t stopped Labor winning easily. If the government is going along okay (which Brumby is; not great, but okay) why would it work now?

  11. How can you be sure that electoral benefit is the main criterion for state Liberal leader?

    Some of the polls before Doyle was ousted showed an increase in Labor`s majority.

    I know my two statements contradict each other slightly.

  12. The Libs will hold their nerve until three months before the election. Then they will panic and axe Baillieu, just as they axed Napthine and Doyle. They will then draft whoever is Head Boy at Scotch in 2010 as their new leader.

  13. The 17% who did not vote for the major parties seems large to me.
    Is this larger than last Poll?
    I presume the Nats are included in the 39%.
    What is the Green vote, DLP FF, and other minor parties?
    Is this information available?

  14. Adam! very funny! I have the daily enjoyment of sharing a tram ride with the lovely Scotch boys!! can any of them lead the Liberal Party!! look I’m sure some of them are nice chaps but many of them seem unable to do something as basic as doing up a Tie correctly and some look like they need a visit to a hairdresser, but as I say some look Intelligence!

    I think the Liberal Party might e better looking to Xavier for its future leaders, or maybe it should go for someone from MLC, there are some very nice looking girls at that school.

  15. #21
    Challenged by whom? I’ve thought for a long time that Louise Asher would be their best bet. She speaks well, handles interviews extremely well and has more charisma than anyone else they’ve got. I don’t know whether her colleagues think differently or she just doesn’t want the job.

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