Morgan: 58.5-41.5

The latest Roy Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s two-party lead up to 58.5-41.5 from 56.5-43.5 a fortnight ago. Labor is up 2.5 per cent on the primary vote to 49 per cent, the Coalition is down 1.5 per cent to 36 per cent and the Greens are steady on 8.5 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

655 comments on “Morgan: 58.5-41.5”

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  1. [“I would say the Labor party shouldn’t just assume they can mess with me and get away with it,” she said.]

    Far funnier than anything she said on GNW

  2. Diogenes,

    I’m in serious danger of losing the thread here.

    The selection of Hillary for SOS would be a (belated) recognition of her political talents by the Obama camp.

  3. Adam

    Any chance of that happening? It’s clearly what Shanahan etc are shamelessly plugging for. Could Cossie use the “my country needs me in this time of economic crisis” to overcome the embarrassment of coming crawling back to “high office”?

  4. [While she obviously should go, who would they replace her with?]

    Well Robb would be the obvious one, but the ALP would have all his comments attacking Ken Henry ready to go…

  5. [Could Cossie use the “my country needs me in this time of economic crisis” to overcome the embarrassment of coming crawling back to “high office”?]

    My country needs me to be second banana again…

  6. Diogenes,

    Back in harness now!

    If Cossie is coming back, it is in the top job. Treasurer……. Been there and lived the T shirt.

    JB will go down for Andrew Robb.

  7. The only hope for the liberals is to take out the cheque book and poach Julia and Tanner from Labor for heaps and heaps of cash LOL.

  8. One might imagine there’s a fair amount of Costello-arm-twisting in the business world at the moment – they must be appalled at the lamentable state of “their” party right now. Assuming he wants to stay in politics, Costello can choose the high road or the low road. The high road would be to say “this partisan bickering must stop, the GFC requires national unity so I am returning as Shadow Treasurer to offer the well-meaning but hopeless Kevin and Wayne my sage advice,” and the low road would be to say “We must get this Labor rabble out as soon as possible so I am reluctantly returning as Shadow Treasurer to lead the fight.”

  9. [The only hope for the liberals is to take out the cheque book and poach Julia and Tanner from Labor for heaps and heaps of cash LOL]

    Well I guess they could hope to pick them up in the pre-season draft…

  10. Adam,

    The problem for Costello is that he does not have the wisdom of Treasury behind him. Life’s different twelve months down the track.

    Labor would be delighted to have Cossie as the Treasury spokesman.

  11. I’m sure they could pick up Mark Latham. I’ll tell you something, and I can’t believe I’m saying it, but he would have been doing a much, much better job than this lot.

    What about Julie B as treasurer for real, she couldn’t count to ten unless she was wearing sandals.

  12. GG, I agree on both counts. But he must be tempted. Otherwise why is he hanging around? He obviously can’t quite bring himself to write that letter to the Speaker and finally let The Dream go. I can *almost* feel sorry for him sometimes…

  13. Adam,

    Why is he hanging around?

    1. No acceptable job offer appeared.
    2. Costello is 51, Turnbull, is 58. Who you gonna call after the next election loss?

  14. Costello is hanging around because he believes he will only get one election at being PM and his chances of a victory in 2013 are greater than 2010. He’s only got to wait another two years before he is opposition leader. Good strategy in my opinion, I would have done the same myself. Although I would have challenged Howard for sure when in government.

  15. If he sits on the backbench for the next two years and does nothing to help, he will be *blamed* for the next election loss, and rightly so, and then they will turn to “youth” – Alex Hawke will be ready by then 🙂

  16. Man, anybody comes at me with JB’s eyes and with an axe swinging, yelling ‘1,2, um, 4’, I’m jumping off the swing. She can have it.

  17. I am sure Costello would love being ripped to shreds in QT by Tanner, Gillard, Swan and Rudd. There is the missing $370 billion odd in wasted surpluses and Costello’s admission that Howard’s spending was prolifigate and not sustainable but he did nothing to stop it.

    It is a bit different sitting on the other side. He can ask a question then suffer a long humiliating diatribe in response. Costello would be having nightmares of Keating and ‘low altitude flier’.

    There is also a certain reality in that Costello doesn’t know that much about economics without a Treasury giving him talking notes and also the fact that he was not very good in front of the camera.

    However if Costello did take the leaders job and lost the next election (most likely) then Howard would have fun dissing on him.

  18. What Costello would really, truly, love:
    1. The liberals crawling to him, begging him for forgiveness, and begging him to become their divine ruler.
    2. Demoting a few Howard Huggers and promoting a few of the incompetents currenly out of favour.
    3. As ruler of the Opposition, smashing the Government in Parliament.
    4. Being swept into the PM’s job in an overwhelming tsunami of popular adoration by an electorate that has, at last, conttoned on to his god-like qualities.
    5. Then, as his first act as PM, saying, ‘Howard who?’ to Janet Albrechtson.
    6. And then, uh, and then, uh, well, and then, well…

  19. Diogenes, I think Tip chanced his hand by declaring that the markets had about bottomed out. I think they went for a run immediately thereafter but have subsequently tanked below Tip’s bottom, if you get my meaning.

  20. There still is an issue of national concern that should be addressed as matter of urgency by the media and the political parties and that is the Coalitions refusal to retract or repudiate the attack of Prime Minister Howard on Obama.

    How can we have a major political party, the apparent alternate government, have a position of supporting their ex-leader’s condemnation of Obama, which is what they are doing by refusing to repudiate that position. It was a position taken by Howard as Prime Minister for and on behalf of Australia’s government and as leader of the Coalition. In not being repudiated it thus remains the current position.

    How can the go to the next election and claim any National Security credentials if they do not unequivocally rectify this glaring problem. How could they if the Government face Obama and his administration? They need to more than say they don’t take the same position, they have to repudiate the position as wrong in every respect.

    This and Workchoices will be live issues at the next election. But I find it bizarre that the media isn’t going ape over the LNP’s equivocal position and instead concentrated on something boring and trivial. This by contrast is a major unresolved issue.

  21. TP @630
    The media are probably waiting to see whether Obama will bomb New York before firming up their position on your suggestinn.

  22. shhh dont tell Juliem, Esmerelda’s another one who originally comes from South Australia, Juliem already thinks we croweaters are a little strange, i think JB comes from Lord Downers way—-well so what if Lord Downer has a fancy for net stockings and esmerelda for chasing folk swinging an axe, the cane toad’s definately obsessing over Rudd’s past doings,{strange man that} but it could be worse, we could have spawned the mad monk or the mobile ego. or even Bolt, it must be the water here, or lack of it, it makes one frightened at who/what wer’re turning loose on the unsuspecting public next.

  23. [But I find it bizarre that the media isn’t going ape over the LNP’s equivocal position and instead concentrated on something boring and trivial]

    Why bizarre? It follows their pretty standard anti-government pattern…

  24. The Relevant bits.

    [The latest Age/Nielsen poll also shows voters are continuing to give high marks to Kevin Rudd for his handling of the economy — 68% approving of his actions, including the $10 billion of hand-outs eating into the budget surplus.The poll finds that a year after coming to power, the Rudd Government has more support than at the last election. On two-party preferred terms, Labor is on 55% and the Coalition is on 45%, which amounts to a 2% swing to Labor since the election in November 2007.

    Fifty-six per cent of poll respondents felt optimistic (down 2 percentage points in a month) while 40% (up 3 points) were pessimistic.

    Greater uncertainty was revealed when those polled were asked about their planned spending habits over the Christmas holiday period.

    Just over half (51%) said they would spend the same amount on Christmas as last year, but 35% said they would spend less.

    Only 13% said they would spend more, despite the Government’s $10 billion package, including hand-outs to pensioners and families, designed to spark pre-Christmas spending.

    On the broad political front, Mr Rudd’s personal standing has hardly shifted in the past month, despite the deteriorating economic climate, claims from the Opposition that he has been complicit in manipulating growth forecasts and continuing intrigue over a telephone conversation with Mr Bush.

    Mr Rudd’s personal approval rating is at 70% — down just 1 percentage point since mid-October, though his disapproval is up 2 points to 22%. Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull has not fared so well. His approval rating dropped 4 points to 51%, while disapproval with the way he is handling his job is up 5 points to 35%.

    However, these is considerably better than for the previous leader, Dr Brendan Nelson. Nielsen pollster John Stirton said Mr Turnbull’s approval rating had averaged 50% since he became leader.]

  25. Another relevant bit.
    “Mr Rudd continues to thrash Mr Turnbull as preferred prime minister, by 65 per cent to 27 per cent. The 38 percentage-point lead, the highest Mr Rudd has held over his opponent, is unchanged from a month ago.”

  26. [Is it me or are these papers being particularly positive to the government?]

    Dunno about that, but even Shannahan would have trouble spinning these numbers. What could they possibly write other than a positive report without looking like total frauds?

  27. “There still is an issue of NATIONAL concern that should be addressed as matter of urgency by the media and the political parties and that is the Coalitions refusal to retract or repudiate the attack of Prime Minister Howard on Obama.”

    Howards comment was simply ill judged and partisan , nothing more Applying that argument Rudd’s alleged isulyt of a US POTUS….any US POTUS in American eyes is far more serious But again reely nothing

  28. [any US POTUS in American eyes is far more serious]

    Given GWB’s approval numbers I’m not so sure that is the case. Regardless, I’m not quite sure how a documented insult vs an alleged and subsequently denied insult compares in any way.

  29. The LNP have been given a few opportunities to unequivocally clean the slate on the Obama thing, an easy thing to do but they refuse to do.

    The issue is that they won’t condemn an obvious inappropriate and deliberate attack on Obama. Howard was PM and leader of the LNP at the time of making the attack. His people at the time did not stand up and so that it was out of order. Those same people are there now leading the party and still refuse to.

    Nobody believes that the LNP hold that view or that Howard actually honestly held his views either and know that it was simply an attack to help the Republican Party. Given the media’s obsession with trivial things to do with Rudd it is extraordinary that here we have a live serious issue that is still to be resolved. The media should be forcing the LNP to repudiate the Howard position. Can anybody imagine what the media would do if it was Rudd as PM making those comments? They would be demanding his resignation, as they should.

    The media is deliberately soft on this issue because it is the LNP. However as it isn’t fully resolved, it can be used by Labor during the election year, especially if an Obama visit is in the offing. (one can hope).

    It is also an indication of the weakness of Turnbull’s leadership. He knows what he should do, but that he doesn’t says a bit about his position.

  30. The Nielsen Poll would have to be very worrying for Turnbull of course. His personal ratings have stalled and are slipping backwards. Almost no honeymoon and no positive impression thereafter.

    You can see them now sitting in their backrooms cursing that Rudd who has obviously drugged and duped the public. They know they are better at everything and are infuriated that Rudd falsely holds his position. So they will further enraged swing even harder and more wildly hoping to get lucky.

  31. Oh , and Kevin Rudd PM should appologise for Paul Keating PM insultingly calling th Malaysian PM “recaliant”

    Your argument deteriorates as you go , making a 12 months old grain of sand into half

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