Morgan: 58.5-41.5

The latest Roy Morgan face-to-face poll has Labor’s two-party lead up to 58.5-41.5 from 56.5-43.5 a fortnight ago. Labor is up 2.5 per cent on the primary vote to 49 per cent, the Coalition is down 1.5 per cent to 36 per cent and the Greens are steady on 8.5 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

655 comments on “Morgan: 58.5-41.5”

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  1. You’re exactly right, the idea of the GG advising the PM to do anything, let alone start up an inquiry in the Heiner Affair is ludicrous. If it did happen the PM was right to shoot it down in flames.

  2. [“OPPOSITION Treasury spokeswoman Julie Bishop has urged the Government to lighten up on the economic crisis,”]

    Maybe she thinks if they “lighten up” up a bit she might have a shadow of a prayer of keeping up.

  3. DRUDGE NEWSFLASH
    JULIE BISHOP THREATENS TO MURDER SHANAHAN AND LABOR CRITICS WITH AN AXE

    Call the police someone!!

    [DEPUTY Opposition leader Julie Bishop has joked that she might take an axe to her critics after revealing she once did so against her sisters.

    Ms Bishop recently told the Network Ten’s Good News Week program that when her sisters would not let her have a turn on the swings, she grabbed an axe and tried to hack down the swings before her mother stopped her.

    “I knew I’d regret saying that story on television, it was going to come back and haunt me,” Ms Bishop said on Channel 9 today.

    But she warmed to the axe theme, joking she might dust off the axe and use it again.

    “I would say the Labor party shouldn’t just assume they can mess with me and get away with it,” she said.

    Ms Bishop was asked if reporter Dennis Shanahan, who writes for The Australian, should beware of her axe after he wrote an article criticising her performance.

    “Maybe he should,” she said. ]

    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,24659237-5005962,00.html

  4. [“I would say the Labor party shouldn’t just assume they can mess with me and get away with it,” {Bishop} said.]

    I would say Bishop shouldn’t just assume they can mess around with the pay and conditions of Australian employees and get away with it.

  5. Before I go out into the yard and tackle the lawnmowing…

    Today we’ve seen Rudd accosted for not following the directions of a defunct Governor General on a a 20 year old beat-up, defying the toadying advice of an ex-equerry who nailed his colors to the mast long ago when he skipped Australia and got himself a UK knighthood.

    We have also seen almost universal condemnation of a single handshake, and the argument put by “senior” journalists that Rudd has disgraced Australia. Did they not consider that Rudd is one of the leaders of the anti-Bush free-market side at the G20 conference and that this could have something to do with it? Did they not see the other clips showing Bush and Rudd just about nibbling each other’s ear lobes? Clearly not. All they want to do is denigrate and thereby big note themselves as diplomatic protocol experts.

    Both scenarios have the same theme: Labor is incompetent to be in power because they just don’t know how to behave in polite society. It’s a “cut ’em off at the knees” argument.

    And as for Wreith – and who didn’t get out the sick-bags when they saw his ugly mug reappear after all these years? – saying he was chuffed by Howard telling him the Howard children supported him (and that this must have meant Janette supported him too .. OMFG!

  6. Dio 555

    Looks like those decriptions of Bishop as “Chickie’s mon” were alarmingly close to the mark! Thats the sort of “humorous” anecdote that should go down so well with the conservative family set 🙂 It merely underlines her bizarre personality. What an appalling lack of judgement.

  7. BB

    You are quite right, as usual. Most of the western world is ready to repudiate everything Bush stands for now. Contrary to the todying of our former PM, lots of leaders elsewhere have been quite public in calling for change in US policy direction, even before the POTUS election result. If Rudd had continued grovelling to Bush it would have sidelined Australia even more than became the case under Howard.

  8. A little bit of alternative history follows…

    Howard won the election. Against the combined opinions of the rest of the world, Howard sides with Bush at the G20. Says, “GFC isn’t as bad as some, such as the Leader of the Opposition, Julia Gillard, like to make out.” Spruiks for other countries to do what Australia has done: cut back on wages via instituting their own AWA-type IR laws, abandon Global Warming countermeasures because the science isn’t definite and now it’s too expensive to bet on a whimsy, ban unions and force more bludgers off the dole. Sends Alexander Downer to heavy small Pacific countries into accepting more refugees, appoints Wreith to High Commissioner to London to deal with left-wing government led by Gordon Brown. Says no apology to Obama is warranted as he lost the election. Volunteers Australian troops to join Iran task force blockading the Gulf of Hormuz. Says, “I feel fighting fit. I could stay in the job for another two terms.” Backbencher Peter Costello when asked for his reaction to this says, “I might write a book about it one day.”

  9. Bill, you’ve portrayed a far right wing autocrat who bans unions, goes on the warpath, and sends emissaries to browbeat “communist” governments. You’re describing a situation where we’d be well on the road to fascism.

  10. [“I would say the Labor party shouldn’t just assume they can mess with me and get away with it,” she said.]

    But they have and they did.

    Bye bye Julie. Enjoy the Health portfolio.

  11. [Bill, you’ve portrayed a far right wing autocrat who bans unions, goes on the warpath, and sends emissaries to browbeat “communist” governments. You’re describing a situation where we’d be well on the road to fascism.]

    You really think Howard wouldn’t have been capable of any of the things Bill mentioned?

  12. More than capable, and willing to boot, Dario. Just thinking what would have happened to the Labor Party if he’d been able to ban – or at least use SerfChoices to legislatively handcuff unions. Labor’s financial base would have shrivelled, pretty much putting them out of contention as a viable opposition in the medium term. Result: the virtual one-party fascist state.

    Of course we’d have fanatical followers like Geriatric Person on here evangelising how Howard was the best “PM” we’d ever had.

  13. 561 BB Julia Gillard in QT on Thursday did a bit of alternate histroy:

    [Ms GILLARD… Let us just imagine a parallel universe where in 2007 John Howard had won the last election. Let us imagine a parallel universe where John Howard is in the prime ministership—the member for Higgins has been reassured by him that he will hand it over when he is 94, so the member for Higgins is patiently waiting— and the presidential election is over; we know that President-elect Obama has won. Let us just imagine how that phone call would have gone between Prime Minister Howard and President-elect Obama. I do not think it would have escaped President-elect Obama’s notice that Prime Minister Howard said about him:

    I think that would just encourage those who wanted completely to destabilise and destroy Iraq, and create chaos and victory for the terrorists to hang on and hope for (an) Obama victory.
    These are the words of former Prime Minister Howard:

    If I was running al-Qaeda in Iraq, I would put a circle around March 2008, and pray, as many times as possible, for a victory not only for Obama, but also for the Democrats.

    Just imagine how that telephone conversation would have gone. Just imagine it.

    Dr Southcott—Mr Speaker, I rise on a point of order.

    Ms GILLARD—I was asked about the question of apologies to President-elect Obama and I am just asking the House to imagine the first telephone call, had it ever occurred, if we were in that parallel universe between Prime Minister John Howard and the man he had called—

    Mr Turnbull—Mr Speaker, I rise on a point of order. The Acting Prime Minister said she was asked about apologies to President-elect Obama. Without wanting to declare a war on irrelevance, she was actually asked about an apology to President Bush and she should return to it.

    The SPEAKER—The Acting Prime Minister has the call.

    Ms GILLARD—The question actually did refer to President-elect Obama, but putting that to one side, of course what should be happening here is that we should be noting not what the Leader of the Opposition says but what he does. When the greatest offence was paid to President-elect Obama by the then Prime Minister of this country, when the then Prime Minister of this country described the man who is now going to be
    President of the United States as a terrorist, did we see the member for Wentworth go out and condemn it publicly? Did we see him disassociate himself from it? No, we did not.

    Mr Hockey—Mr Speaker, I rise on a point of order to do with relevance. I ask the Acting Prime Minister to come back to the question that was asked.

    The SPEAKER—The Acting Prime Minister will respond to the question and bring her answer to a conclusion.

    Ms GILLARD—I am very happy to. The opposition day after day has raised this issue when it has been fully dealt with by the Prime Minister. What I am asking for is an explanation of their hypocrisy, given the actions of former Prime Minister Howard.]

    “The Member for Higgins patiently waiting” Damn, she is good. 😆

  14. “The Member for Higgins patiently waiting” Damn, she is good. (Grog)

    She’s good but she’s not as good as Costello….and probably never will be.

  15. Costello had the element of what could be called “nastiness” in his “humour”. Who’d want to be like that (and a failure to boot)?

  16. Costello is a blowhard. JG is calm, measured and calculating. She is just as effective in parliament as Costello and a much better performer in public speaking and interview situations.

    Costello abandoned the cause as soon as the going got tough. JG worked hard in opposition and just as hard in government. It’s easy to see who has the true leadership qualities.

  17. Costello indulged in histrionics and over egged the cake, who could forget his confected rage over Rudd’s supposed liaison with Burke, that little dramatic tantrum resulted in the sacking and ruined career of one of his coleagues.

  18. [… Rudd’s supposed liaison with Burke…]

    God, it all seems so long ago.

    One thing we all got right: Howard spat the dummy when Costello started smirking regarding the leadership succession. You can understand his thoughts on the matter: if you push me I won’t go. Whether they are his true thoughts is another thing, though.

    Interestingly, who was it that published the story about the note=to=self in MacFarlane’s wallet? None other than our tiny friend, Glenn Milne.

    Just imagine if Costello had gotten hold of the reins of power, with Milne as Prime Ministerial Press Secretary. What a laugh-a-minute that would have been!

    Gee willikers, Howard took them both for suckers didn’t he? No wonder he sent Milne a birthday card that year. Milne though it meant “No hard feelings, Glenn”. It actually meant, “Thanks for the help, mate.”

  19. Howard was never going to stand down from the PM’s position – his wife would never have tolerated it to start with.

    He can say what he likes now but why would he start telling the truth after all those years of being mean and tricky.

    If in any doubt just recall that interview with red kerry just prior to the election when he basically BEGGED the nation for another term, “during which he would possibly…certainly… handover towards the end end of that term to costello.”

    rodent can try all he likes to try and rewrite history to his own suiting but I say again who would believe anything he says. We know him too well.

  20. Just a couple of things,earlier on there is a discussion about this clown Conroy and his great wall of OZ,Conroy and his faction are the ones who inflicted us with the idiot Family Faust,as for censorship I do not want anyone telling me what I can and cannot watch in my own home.
    Why the hell should I have to pay to babysit some clod who cant watch his own kids and what they do on the net,I just switched providers to get a higher internet down load speed,and this goose wants to slow it down,Bugger off pal.
    On Ackerman and his rantings on Henier,the only thing you can say is if he did not exist some one would have to invent him,why the hell has the ABC inflicted Blair on us as well,if ever there was a to clever by half smart arse its him,I stopped watching Insiders as soon as he turned up, I did not watch it for quite some time after getting utterly frustrated at the lack of some one who would have a red hot go at Bolt Ackerman and the mumbling Henderson.
    It has gone backwards in my humble opinion.

  21. I know this is Victorian politics not national, but I find the Nixon story in Victoria a bit concerning. http://www.theage.com.au/national/qantas-trip-blown-out-of-proportion-nixon-20081116-67yl.html

    Commisioner Nixon accepted a gift (two return flights to LA) worth at least $5000 without declaring it until the matter was raised publicly. She is a public servant. AFAIK every public service in Australia has rules prohibiting accepting gifts of such value. Some agencies would deem it as a sacking offence. For her to say it has been “blown out of proportion” is extremely dissappointing – Victorain police would have had a code of conduct, with ethics or probity officers she could (and should) have checked with. This is a serious error of judgement.

  22. For the record, I’m not much bothered about state or even international politics creeping on to federal poll threads, except when there’s a more appropriate thread up and running elsewhere.

  23. Just been listening to Rupert Murdoch saying that he has always been committed to responsible journalism that tells the truth and in which readers can trust.

    “Ladies and Gentlemen of the jury I give you three exhibits:

    EXHIBIT A: Fox News

    EXHIBIT B: The Daily Telegraph.

    EXHIBIT C: The Australian

    I rest my case, m’lud.”

  24. Interesting Julie….
    [The Government is still pointing to comments former prime minister John Howard made before US President-elect Barack Obama was the Democratic nominee, when he said terrorists would pray for an Obama win.

    Speaking on Channel Nine, Deputy Opposition leader Julie Bishop stopped short of repudiating Mr Howard’s remarks.

    But Ms Bishop says she would not have made the comments.]

    Pathetic. Why not repudiate them? The guy is out of office. Oh well, let him continue to be an anchor on the Liberal Party I guess. Next QT I’d be asking the LIberals who controls the party – Turnbull or Howard?

  25. [She’s good but she’s not as good as Costello….and probably never will be.]

    ?? She’s already gone past him in my opinion. The best he could do was call her a communist, “the most left wing treasurer since Jim Cairns”, was all he could do. She nailed his entire career with:
    [the member for Higgins has been reassured by him that he will hand it over when he is 94,]

    Has anyone worked out why the old hammock hack is still in parliament??

    I heard something about his super getting a bump in March for some reason (30 years or something). Anyone heard anything?

  26. [The Government is still pointing to comments former prime minister John Howard made before US President-elect Barack Obama was the Democratic nominee, when he said terrorists would pray for an Obama win.]

    Like the Liberals hadn’t expected that when they beat up “phonegate”. “Phonegate” was the tool they employed to facilitate the re-airing of the Howard comments. Just in time to make headlines upon his election.

  27. Update on the phonegate:
    [Mr Bush appeared to give Mr Rudd the cold shoulder during an arrivals ceremony at the White House on Friday evening, the Australian leader receiving a brief handshake and not a hint of a smile.

    But by Saturday morning relations between the pair seemed much more cordial, with Mr Bush greeting Mr Rudd with a friendly: “Good morning Kevin. How you doing?”]

    http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,24659434-38198,00.html

    No doubt this will be written up as “Bush show’s he’s the bigger man”…

  28. I don’t share what seems to be a widely-held view on this thread that “The Howard Years” will be a free kick for the Liberals.
    While it is an opportunity for those who appear to provide their post hoc justifications, since there are multiple bones of contention, imho it’s bound to end in tears for them.
    The precedent is surely “Labor in Power”, which was filmed just prior to the 1993 election, when the participants assumed Labor would lose. The various prominent Laborites involved wanted to get their first draft of the history of the period down, to justify themselves individually and factionally. The program drew obvious attention to Labor’s divisions. I confidently predict that the same will happen with “The Howard Years”, because there seems to be so little consensus of the reasons for their defeat,among those most closely involved.
    As for Howard’s claim that he was going to leave until the publication of the McLachlan note, I think that is entirely implausible, although I think it very likely that Howard has reached the stage of convincing himself. In truth, I believe that he would always have found a reason why “the Party still needs me”, because he had come to believe absolutely in his own indispensability (and the inadequacies of the alternative(s)).

  29. [I don’t share what seems to be a widely-held view on this thread that “The Howard Years” will be a free kick for the Liberals.]

    I agree – I think it will be among the most boring hour of TV since Howard and Costello went on TT pretending to be mates. Ok, that was at least funny.

  30. PF @ 592.

    Nice post. I agree that the urge to get your personal take out there is irresistable for most politicians. You think they’d wait for a chance to publish in their own right without annoying naysayers who were at the same meetings.

    Agree that Howard was never going to leave even if he died on the job. The libs would have been too obsessed with saying he was “just resting his eyes”.

  31. I defy any of you to repeat Julie Bishop’s phrase from her interview today and keep a straight face. It is one of the most juvenile and pathetic things I’ve ever heard a politician say. I honestly cannot force myself to say it. Has she no self-respect. My ten year old couldn’t say it without laughing, and it even sounded lame coming from my six year old.

    [“I would say the Labor party shouldn’t just assume they can mess with me and get away with it,” she said.]

  32. Diogenes,

    I would say the Labor Party are the least of her problems.

    The knives are out and she can’t afford to take a backward step.

  33. A few more QTs like those of last week and they will have a full-scale leadership crisis brewing. They’re playing a high-risk game, risking our economic security and international relations for the sake of their childish partisan games, and it will probably blow up in their faces soon.

  34. GG

    You might as well get it out of the way and kick me about Hillary being offered SOS by Obama. It’s hanging over me like the Sword of Damocles.

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