Taverner: 64-36 to Liberal in Ryde

Today’s Sun Herald brings us a poll of 500 respondents in Ryde, one of four New South Wales state seats which face a by-election next Saturday. It points to a 24 per cent two-party swing against Labor and an easy win for Liberal candidate Victor Dominello – a barely believable result in normal circumstances, but one that sounds entirely plausible in the current environment. The other Labor-held seats which go to the polls are Lakemba (margin 34.0 per cent, being vacated by Morris Iemma) and Cabramatta (29.2 per cent, vacated by Reba Meagher). The fourth seat is Port Macquarie, which is vacant as a result of independent Rob Oakeshott’s move to federal politics at last month’s Lyne by-election. This looms as a contest between Nationals candidate Leslie Williams and independent Peter Besseling. More on all this at some point in the next few days.

UPDATE: Crazy large overview of the Ryde by-election from Antony Green at ABC Elections.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

80 comments on “Taverner: 64-36 to Liberal in Ryde”

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  1. 24%… that’s incredible

    I know their hated but 24 seems like an extraordinary amount to me. If it did eventuate, would that be some kind of record?

  2. I would love to see a national poll result now too. I suspect that with Rudd and Swan remaining calm and Turnbull sounding a bit too shrill, there may eb a slight swing to Labor nationally, even though NSW Labor is suffering badly. Good for the voters I say; the two are chalk and cheese.

  3. [It’s too bad the system only allows a real choice between 2 equally repellant parties in NSW.]

    Eer, heard of Greens, independents?

  4. Labor’s 2007 vote in Ryde was artifically high so a dramatic correction is likely. I suspect that NESB voters might be underrepresented in the sample however. But overall Labor is headed for a severe defeat as in 1988, remember the 18 & 15% swings in the 1986 by-elections, today with voters more volatile by-election disasters get worse. A bad result in Ryde would suggest problems in Oatley & Strathfield at the election.

  5. And so Geoff Robinson starts the expectation game – our vote last time was high, we expect a large swing, by-elections swing more now than they used to… blah, blah, blah

    So when the actual result is less than a 24% swing I suppose we will hear about how it was a better result than expected, Nathan Rees reduced what would have been a wipeout under Iemma… blah, blah, blah.

    I suspect Labor in Ryde will get exactly what they deserve.

  6. But will the people in Ryde get what they deserve? It’s a sick joke surely that the Liberal party and its fellow travellers successfully demonised public infrastructure borrowing/ spending over the last generation and now stand to benefit electorally from its rundown and the mismanagement of ‘partnerships’ with the glorious private sector. Still, it’ll be fun watching the Alastairs and Marigolds forced to come to the party in pink.

  7. Mogfreatures – I assume you are joking. You are blaming a party that has not been in government for over 13 years for the current problems. So I suppose I can blame Paul Keating for the current stock market meltdown?

  8. Actually steve you can thank keating for the reforms he introduced that have allowed our economy to weather the asian meltdown and now the WEC

    As for howard the % spend on the states went from close to 49% of Gov revenue to less than 41%

    You do the math steve and you’ll see howard was woeful in regards to state funding
    Hope this helps πŸ™‚

  9. It’s the dominant neo-con paradigm over the last generation which has been responsible for both. But hey, we’re all over that now, so the forthcoming electoral results can in no way be represented as a new found love afffair with traditional Liberal Party ideology.

  10. Gusface, I do thank Keating. He was the best Labor Treasurer we have ever had. Not that that would be hard.

    Howard was many things but he was not “woeful”. Woefull PMs do not last for 11 years. In relation to state funding, I never understand the whining about federal grants. State governments of their own volition abolished state income taxes and death duties .. to their own peril.

    The NSW government had the greatest economic boom during the 90s and early 00s but somehow managed to waste money of wigwams for a goose’s bridle. Nathan Rees hardly inspires confidence with his $30million dollar V8 extravaganza.

  11. steve your feint praise of keating does you no service.

    As regards howard-you know im right ,just admit it and get on with healing the pain of losing the little man and his neo con agenda.

    I sincerely hope that the liberal party does admit its past failures and grows up to become a viable mature and representative choice.

    your denial of past wrongs and ill-judged policy does not bode well for short term reform
    (if of course your views are representative of mainstream libs)

  12. [State governments of their own volition abolished state income taxes…]

    Er no they did not. Only the Federal Govt. can levy income tax. The States thought they may be able to levy excises, but the High Court found this to be unconstitutional.

    When Joh abolished death duties all the other states had not choice but to follow. πŸ˜‰

  13. You can blame whatever you want. Mogfeatures is not “blaming” the Liberal party for the woes of the State, he’s saying that there are certain things that voters are unimpressed with and those are the reasons they are leaving Labor – inadequate public transport, failed PPP’s and pathetic public infrastructure.

    But cutting spending, not investing in infrastructure and letting the magical private sector look after everything is core Liberal policy.

  14. “The Income Tax Assessment Act 1942 said that individuals had to pay Commonwealth tax prior to State taxes. In effect, the scheme meant either the states had to accept grants and stop taxing, or decline grants and try to collect tax at rates which were unsustainable.”

    Hardly a voluntary action. πŸ™‚

  15. Thanks OZ – not everybody (and obviously most of those surveyed in Ryde) sees the irony.

    Steve, I think you’ll find the Commonwealth has been the sole collector of income tax since 1942.

  16. No 17

    Do you even know what neo-con means mog-features? I’d guess most of the people who parrot the dumb label don’t.

    Nevertheless, the NSW Labor Party deserves two decades of wilderness of their absolutely pathetic management of the state. I was campaigning in West Ryde yesterday and several people told Nicole Campbell and her sycophants, literally, to f**k off. And it appears that the ALP’s photoshoppers have been at work again: just like Belinda Neal’s amazingly youthful corflute photo, Nicole has been given a nip & tuck. LOL! Such appalling vanity!

  17. ‘I was campaigning in West Ryde yesterday and several people told Nicole Campbell and her sycophants, literally, to f**k off.’

    you young fibs and your alcopops-best argument yet to raise the drinking age to 21

    πŸ™‚

  18. “Ominously for Labor, Opposition Leader Barry O’Farrell outpolls Mr Rees 44 to 32 per cent on who would make the better premier, with 24 per cent undecided.”

    Why is this ominous? I would suggest the 24% undecided is the relevent figure.

  19. No 27

    Fibs!? The ALP has has treated the people of NSW as idiots for 13 years! I’m surprised that you’d even come to their defence!

  20. That’s not the point. The point is that it was a voluntary ceding of power, so that state governments could get all the credit for spending money but none of the pain for levying the taxes to pay for the spending. The premiers liked it so much that when Fraser offered to give taxing powers back to the states they all said Noooooo thanks!

  21. GP
    not defending state labor as such,just that the young fib hoon element seems to begiven a free rein lately -my god man even I wouldnt have yelled F off at coconut.(the fact he probably wouldnt have heard me is irrelevant)

  22. No 34

    Gusface, I don’t believe I said that Liberal campaigners yelled obscenities at the Labor candidate.

    If you think I was implying that, then you’d be mistaken. I meant average people whose attention both parties were trying to attract.

  23. Adam

    The States then flirted with Section 90 of the Consitution for close on 50 years. They then came up with some doozies to balance the books – Neville Wran’s rounding down of TAB payouts was a classic.

    What is left for the States to raise revenue without begging the Federal Govt. ?

    Pokies ? πŸ™

  24. Because that’s what average people do – swear at candidates. We all know the Young Liberals are the rational voices of reason in the Australian sphere of debate.

  25. Ryde is truly a marginal seat on current boundaries prob more inclined towards liberal
    than labor maybe by 5%.John Watkins had a personal vote of at least 7% which has now been lost to labor. If the opinion poll figures are correct then this will be like a British byelection when a party is unpopular even safe seats can be lost in the climate of the time then at the general election they vote on normal lines

  26. No 38

    Oz, please don’t be so patronising. No Liberal or Labor Candidate shouted obscenities. But the voters did and Labor bore the brunt of them. That is the honest truth.

  27. Why does AG link to the Liberal Party’s website for the Liberal Candidate for Cabramatta.

    Is this in some way related to the fact that she is an ABC employee?

    I think we should be told.

  28. I recommend an inquiry investigating pro-Liberal bias at the ABC.

    Who knows how many fancy “chamber graphics” and “swing pendulums” have been doctored by Antony Green.

  29. It’s an amusing idea: blast a few obscenities in the face of the ALP candidate then pop inside and vote Labor!

    Spleen venting par excellence …

  30. Adam is quite right WRT to states ceding tax powers. Thus students have the joys of learning about vertical fiscal imbalance. And yes, states can deleiver goods and services, but blame the Feds if it goes wrong (“they didn’t give us enough money”). but the end issue has already remained that governments at both levels have always tried to take maximum credit for minimum pay out – and local govt has seen this agenda pushed at them, with a raft of programs and decisions forcing them to look for increased revenue to fund decisions they didn’t make.

    Perhaps the abolition of states might achieve this, or a complete re-negotiation of federal-state funding arrangements, but I can’t help feeling that short of only one level of government raising the funds, making the decisions and then implementing (ie have only one tier of govt) there will always be this argy-bargy. There is a case for states receiving a bigger slice of the federal pie, but then states also need to be delivering the services… The equalisation factor of the federal government is often forgotten when people don’t get what they want (thus WA always complaining about the eastern states taking all the money and giving nothing back, or rural WA (aka The Nationals) wanting money raised from regional WA returned to regional WA), but without it there would be severe dislocations between the resource rich and poor.

    Back to Ryde – I’m not all surprised that people are heckling ALP candidates and workers. I’m sure Liberals received the same prior to the last federal election. But in a state (by)election I’ve found it more prevalent as the issues are so much closer to home. What I’m interested with this Taverner poll (and any others we might see twixt now and next Saturday) is where is the rest of the vote going? By my reckoning there’d be about 30% going to everybody else (or undecided?) – and if someone collected all that up, they’d pass the ALP and maybe even the Libs. Full figures would be interesting indeed.

    Has anyone seen any polling for the other 3 by-elections? I’m interested in how Besseling is going as I’ve heard he is doing well publicly (and the Nats are worried he’ll take the seat).

  31. SNIP. New item of coarse language case law: “f**k” is permissible in quotations, but it amounts to an evasion of my moderation filter when it’s your own work – The Management.

  32. It is sensible to have income tax (and many other taxes) on the largest scale possible so as to avoid tax evasion and races to the bottom.

    Bring on a democratic world government with tax powers.

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