Morgan: 57.5-42.5

No joy for Malcolm Turnbull from the latest Roy Morgan face-to-face survey of 1221 respondents, which has Labor’s two-party lead up to 57.5-42.5 from 55.5-44.5 in Brendan Nelson’s last poll (which was an unusually good result for him). There has been a straightforward 1.5 per cent primary vote shift to Labor from the Coalition, who are respectively on 46.5 per cent to 36.5 per cent. However, the number of respondents who think Labor will win is down from 57.5 per cent to 54 per cent, while the Coalition is up from 26.5 per cent to 29 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

419 comments on “Morgan: 57.5-42.5”

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  1. G.P. You’re certainly game. More game than Costello, I’d reckon. Maybe you should chance your arm? You couldn’t do worse that any of them really. Costello=yesterday’s remainders; Nelson=just yesterday; Turnbull= brief thought – nah!

  2. [1) Costello was able to deliver surpluses thanks to the mining boom. Either party or any treasurer could have done the same in the circumstances.]

    Costello delivered surpluses before the mining boom even began. Just deal with it.

    The fact of the matter was that Keating’s mismanagement resulted in a trainwreck of an economy and he was rightly dumped in favour of Howard by a huge margin in 1996.

  4. Well, while we’re offering gratuitous history lessons. The fact of the matter was that Howard’s mismanagement resulted in a trainwreck of an economy and he was rightly dumped in favour of Hawke-Keating by a huge margin in 1983.

  5. Second thoughts, G.P. just read through the comments back one page. Ferget aboudit. That stuff you think is a true representation of the world is about to go down an extraordinarily large and nasty gurgler called climate change plus major geopolitical/economic shift from the U.S. to Asia. The noise you hear is the seismic shift.

  8. HSO, There was obviously disharmony between the two, going back many years. The fact that the Howards never, in 11.5 years, had the Costellos over for dinner indicates the relationship might have been “strained” as far back as their first days in government. For Howard to say that disharmony between PM and Treasurer leads to sub-prime management of the economy was a glaring admission of failing on his and Costello’s parts.

  9. No 106

    Utter rubbish Cuppa. Howard could have sacked Costello if the relationship was so disharmonious. They probably didn’t like each other personally, bu their professional relationship was one of the most enduring and most successful in federal politics.

    No 108

    [leads to sub-prime management of the economy was a glaring admission of failing on his and Costello’s parts.]

    That’s a new one. Now you blame them for the subprime crisis which is occurring in the United States. More nonsense.

  10. GP, are you Dennis Shanahan?? It might be exciting that Turnbull’s PPM is out of the gutter that Nelson’s was, but guess what its the 2PP that counts, and even if you wanted to talk PPM, Turnbull is still way behind. Howard, Nelson and now Turnbull are ALL getting that same 2PPs?? Do you think it might mean the PARTY is the problem?? How about some soul-searching, introspection, policy review???

  11. No 103

    You say that as if it was a bad thing. I hope you’re not arguing that Qantas, the Commonwealth Bank and Telstra should still be in public hands. If so, you’re more deluded than I had imagined.

  12. And yes GP, Howard was the best PM ever, Costello the best treasurer ever, their management of the economy the best ever. Which is why they got booted out of office and Howard loss his seat, I guess

  13. No 110

    No, I’m not Dennis Shanahan.

    The 2PP may count, but never has an Australian political party achieved 57% of the 2PP vote in an actual election. Anyone who believes the primary vote of the Libs is in the low 30s, also needs to be shot.

  14. No 113

    Even the best leaders lose elections, Andrew. Longevity plays a huge role.

    Either way, I respect the decision of the Australian people as all supporters of democracy would.

  15. Generic Person @ 97-

    Such prudent economic management is now being claimed as the plaything of the Labor Party; the same party who delivered the worst economic slow down since the last World War, 1 million job losses and 17% interest rates.

    What you fail to mention is that this was the result of the Reagan inspired Savings and Loans disaster which began in 1987, really started to bite a couple of years later and wasn’t fully resolved until late 1994.

    To date, that was much worse than the current Republican created crisis. Then over 3,000 American banks/financial institutions went belly up, with another 2,000 worldwide, including the State Bank of SA. The ANZ and Westpac also suffered huge losses and I suspect were much closer to collapse than was admitted at the time.

    OTOH, Treasurer Howard stuffed the economy all on his own, and the Howard/Costello interest hikes to a 16 year high were at a time when rates were falling everywhere else.

    You might also want to ponder why after supposedly 11 years of expert economic management and the once in many generations mining boom, our balance of payments had deteriorated to heart stopping levels, the national infrastructure is in a diabolical state, housing is the least affordable it’s ever been and pensioners were/are supposedly doing it tougher than ever.

  16. The general belief would be that by election time the polls would have closed considerably and we would get a result in the range 50-53 as per normal. I believe that is likely to be the case since it usually is – but I am never surprised when history gets made. Who knows the sequence of events that will lead up to the next election? There might be some huge scandal to hurt Labor or a series of events might shoot Labor miles out in front. Who knows President Obama and the Chinese premier may pay a ‘courtesy’ call around election time to say hi to Rudd. lol

    One thing is for sure – Rudd will have incumbency, the fear of change will be reversed and no Howard mystique to keep Liberal party voters on board. And those that wanted Howard booted might come back to the LNP – wonder how many that was?

  17. Thank goodness we now have a real treasurer in charge of the purse strings in difficult global economic times.

    Hawke and Keating had to fix the mess left before them by Howard. And then placed the country in a strong position of prosperity for the future, before losing office in March 96.

    Coconut inherited a strong economy and Tip was able to deliver his first surplus two months in the job. Now times are tough again. Move over lightweight, a real expert is needed.

  18. GP at 110, your completely missing the point. When have I said the the next election would be 57% 2PP for Labor. The point is that the Libs have trailed in the polls under Howard, Nelson and now Turnbull. Maybe its the PARTY and its POLICIES not the leader, a question your side cant bear to consider

  19. Given Howard’s dismal record as Treasurer (often cited as the worst Treasurer in Australia’s history), it makes one wonder how much worse a mess he’d have made of the economy as PM without the advantages – which were in no way attributable to his being in the chair – of the resources boom coupled with a period of remarkable sustained global growth. I would guess that if he’d governed in less a less buoyant era, the economy after a decade + of his “stewardship” would now be in a very grave state indeed. The torpid Costello would have been even more ineffective in the role.

    Telling, I think, that Howard, Costello and their government were rejected / replaced as the storm clouds gathered on the horizon…

  23. You guys seem to be obsessed with disparaging and finding ever more juvenile names for Peter Costello.
    My memory of him is announcing almost on a monthly basis that interest rates were falling by one per cent each time. From 13% to 6%.It cut 11 years off our home loan and has basically set us up for the rest of our lives. Even though interest rates have risen since, it is probably what has saved us from the excesses in the U.S. and elsewhere.

  24. [Even though interest rates have risen since, it is probably what has saved us from the excesses in the U.S. and elsewhere.]

    It has nothing to do with why Australia is better placed to face this economic crisis

  25. That would have everything to do with reforms of Keating and Howard. Howard admitted that he inherited a very good economy at the time. And of course there is the observation that Costello was in hit in the arse with a rainbow (a Keating economy rainbow).

    This is why economists like the chief one at the ANZ were slagging off at Howard/Costello – for wasting every dollar of the surpluses. But Costello just slept in his hammock and did nothing to help the economy instead of sleeping and enjoying the Keating economy and resources revenue raining from heaven.

    If people want to thank someone for low rates in the late 1990s and early 2000s thank the Keating economy. IMO

  27. chrisl

    Whe John Howard became PM in March 1996 the RBA cash rate was 7.5%. when he Left office it was 6.75%.

    Interest rates were never cut by 1% when Howard was in power.

  28. I agree with William! Jim Cairns is this countries worst performing Treasurer! before anyone starts on Howard’s record I would suggest that you would have to be very bias to not see Jim Cairns for his record was woeful, just as Howard’s was.

  30. chrisl

    These are the dates of the 1% interest rate falls since interest rates were at 13%

    24 Oct 1994
    6 May 1992
    8 Jan 1992
    6 Nov 1991
    3 Sep 1991
    16 May 1991
    18 Dec 1990

    Now I wonder who was in power then? 🙂

  34. DC, he probably read the RBA details on the subject.

    [The Australian financial system has coped better with the recent turmoil than many other financial systems. The banking system is soundly capitalised, it has only limited exposure to sub-prime related assets, and it continues to record strong profitability and has low levels of problem loans. The large Australian banks all have high credit ratings and they have been able to continue to tap both domestic and offshore capital markets on a regular basis. Credit standards in Australia over the past decade were not eased to anywhere near the same extent as in the United States. In Australia, non-conforming housing loans – the closest equivalent to US sub-prime loans – account for less than 1 per cent of outstanding housing loans, with virtually all of these loans made by specialist non-bank lenders. Moreover, arrears rates on prime Australian mortgages have historically been lower than in many other countries and remain so.]

    http://www.rba.gov.au/PublicationsAndResearch/FinancialStabilityReview/Sep2008/Html/financial_stability_review_0908.html

  37. Ruawake . My memory is not perfect. I looked it up and there were five interest rate cuts of half a per cent from July 96 to July 97. Coming off a high of 17 % in 1990 under you know who, no wonder it was exaggerated in my mind.
    My point remains that any one who had a house (or houses) then has done very very well.

  39. So from 1990 to ’96 the interest rates FELL from 17% to? Under who? Keating must have got the settings right surely Chris.

  40. 133 – Ahh, David. In for another smash and grab? Let’s turn that question over to you.
    Why ISN”T ‘Australia better placed to face this economic crisis’? I’m assuming you think that, otherwise you wouldn’t be asking your question would you?

  41. chrisl.

    As I stated before interest rates were 4.75% in 1993, get over the 13,14,17 or whatever rate. It was Keating who had interest rates with a 4 in front of them. 😉

  45. Yeah I actually doubt there will be any formal coalition but The Greens would be silly not to ask for ministries and Labor would be silly not to give it to them.

  48. Depends if it is a minority government either way, both parties could lobby the Greens.

    In Germany the CDU in one State is in a Coalition with the Greens so i wouldnt rule out the Libs making an offer to the Greens…

  49. chrisl @ 137 –

    My point remains that any one who had a house (or houses) then has done very very well.

    Perhaps. But it’s been at the expense of those trying to get into one now. Housing now is the least affordable it has ever been, including during the Keating era of 17% interest rates, or the non capped bank rates of around 22% when Howard was Treasurer.

    As I pointed out in 115, you can thank Ronald Reagan, with a little help from Bush Senior, for most of the pain you felt in the late 1980s/early 1990s. Which is not to say that Keating did everything right at that time. Interest rates were held high far too long, adding to the misery. But nearly anyone can get it right with hindsight.

  50. Well, both combinations have already happened in Tasmania in the 90’s… Labor-Greens under Michael Field, then Liberal-Greens under Tony Rundle. It’d be interesting to see if the Greens do that well in the ACT… wasn’t that the talk last time?

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