Morgan: 57.5-42.5

No joy for Malcolm Turnbull from the latest Roy Morgan face-to-face survey of 1221 respondents, which has Labor’s two-party lead up to 57.5-42.5 from 55.5-44.5 in Brendan Nelson’s last poll (which was an unusually good result for him). There has been a straightforward 1.5 per cent primary vote shift to Labor from the Coalition, who are respectively on 46.5 per cent to 36.5 per cent. However, the number of respondents who think Labor will win is down from 57.5 per cent to 54 per cent, while the Coalition is up from 26.5 per cent to 29 per cent.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

419 thoughts on “Morgan: 57.5-42.5”

  1. The problem for Malcolm is that expectations are not being met in these polls. Even with a very big leg up by the MSM and the economic mess we find the world in Mal has not made headway. There is still time of course but one would have to be disappointed in these results given these factors.

  2. MSM won’t be happy. Their constant praise of Talcum and their talk of Rudd being a one term wonder may have got a couple of pts swing to “Who you think will win” but on “Who will you vote for” it has had the opposite effect.

  3. So what was Morgan’s political comment with his poll this week? Rudd may be in trouble as the number that think he will win the next election has fallen?

  4. looks like the bounce was the wrong way, now lets see what newspoll says, we’ll be waiting on it like we did before the election.

  5. I think the international financial crisis was a test for both Rudd and Turnbull and is having an effect.

    Now international crises will generally favour the incumbent, but Rudd and Swan have looked in control and Turnbull and Bishop have looked opportunistic and rather amateurish. This was a big opportunity for Turnbull to shine, but he’s blown it with silly populist pitches. And the biggest problem of all for Turnbull is, that these unflattering perceptions once formed, will be very hard to dispel.

    Rudd on the other hand, has only enhanced his perception of being a calm and ordered PM.

    I don’t know if Turnbull is being poorly advised or just has poor judgement but he is not performing well in this crisis and is eroding what should have been a natural advantage for him.

    (judging by the comments and manner of Tom Switzer last night on Q and A, if Turnbull’s advisors are anything like him, then it’s the former)

  6. I don’t normally believe Morgan polls but I’ll make an exception in this case. I don’t think Turnbull has had a bounce at all. The punters already know what they think of him. Who was it called him the Hon Member for Rich People? It’s stuck and he can’t escape it.

  7. [I don’t normally believe Morgan polls]

    I normally don’t believe the raw numbers, but the movement is always worth looking at

  8. [At the close of the Brisbane writers’ festival on Sunday (and seeing the big display) I asked the booksellers how many Costello memoirs they’d sold to the 20,000 people who’d passed through the festival over the week. “Umm,” said the manager. “None actually.”

    ‘Gleebooks, Glebe, Sydney (50 Costellos ordered, two sold), The Lane Bookshop, Claremont WA – Julie Bishop’s ultra-Liberal seat of Curtin – (60 ordered, three sold), Readings, Carlton, Vic (30 ordered, two sold). It’s been the biggest publishing debacle of the last 30 years. Makes the sales of David Barnett’s book on Howard look like Harry Potter.’
    I bet the publishers of Costello’s book wish they had had second thoughts about taking on the project.

    And Crikey adds that The Costello Memoirs are now available from Gleebooks for the privileged price of $12, just over a fifth of the RRP. None of this will worry Costello, of course, who has already pocketed the huge advance from his publishers. But it is very good news nonetheless. Who says Australians are not discriminating readers? ]

  9. The quoted Morgan’s numbers in the MSM last time didn’t they?

    [..the Hon Member for Rich People..]

    Hadn”t heard that one before but is actually quite funny. And, the funnier something is the more it will stick.

  10. If this Turnbull non-bounce is born out by the polls next week then the LNP’s difficulties are going to be worse than they thought. Rudd would be delerious to have a big buffer coming up to his policy releasing period.

    The global financial crisis is going to gobble up a lot of the attention and, the Government’s response to it – because Rudd Labor is the only one that can do anything real they get to control some of the agenda from here on. Turnbull is going to have hard time as anything that negative that he says can be seen as counter productive. And as we get further into the governments term a fair bit of policy is going to be coming out and no doubt linked to the fiscal responsibility where it can be, just to make it harder for the LNP to negate.

    And probably we will see Rudd highlight again his Chinese credentials and their importance to Australia which will gain a lot more attention given the USA troubles.

    Wonder how Fuelwatch and the Medicare levy will go the next time around – especially if the government gets it fiscal message right on it.

  11. While Malcolm is an Investment Banker and you would expect him to know the ins and outs of it but at present PM Rudd is in control of the message, the trip to New York was worthwhile and the narrow populist approach that Malcom in taking in the currant situation is not going to work.

    What this country needs is a steady controlled approach and that is coming from the Government and that is why the Government had a little bounce. The PM looks confortable and confidence in explaining the economy and Wayne Swan is growing in the Treasurers role.

    The opther thing that is starting to happen is with this crisis is starting to focus peoples minds on economics and therefore seeking advice on money matters and the message is that while America has major problems we are rather solid.

    I would be Interested in finding out if Internet traffic to finance stories has increase over the past few weeks.

  12. It doesnt look very good at all for Truffles. EMC had Turnbull lose around twice as many votes in his second week in the leadership then he gained in his first week, and now Morgan shows the Coalition with their worse primary vote since July. Pollytrack that includes the favourable Nielsen and generally good for the Coalition Newspoll even shows the sharp one week nature of the Turnbull bounce.

    What will happen if it’s a bad Newspoll for the Coalition next week?

  13. What will happen if it’s a bad Newspoll for the Coalition next week?

    I would expect to see even more ferocity to the Liberal vitriol and bile aimed at “KRudd” on News Ltd and ABC blogs. Some of the wingnuts posting on those website open-lines, fair dinkum! People used to talk about “Howard Haters” but they’ve got nothing on Rudd Haters!

  14. What’s the surprise in this poll? There was never a Turnbull ‘bounce’. There was one poll (AC Nielsen) that had a three point move, while Newspoll, Essential and Morgan (phone and face-to-face) had nothing. All we ever heard about of course was the ACN.

    By the way, given that senior Libs have been undermining Turnbull from day one, I wonder how long he will last without any polling improvement.

  15. Will the Libs now go begging on their knees to Peter to take over and save the party (LOLOL) or advise him to wait till after the next Fed election (heeheheehee).
    BTW thanks bloggers for that live blog of ‘that’ debate, very enjoyable.

  16. Thomas 21
    Advice like go sit in a gutter at the Cross at 3am and hitch a lift with a truckie to Bourke Lol. nah! can’t see the Member for rich people being too keen on that advice.

  17. More bad news for the Liberals, now Labor have “changed the rules” they won’t be able to employ teenagers on shitty AWAs to hand out HTVs at polling booths.

  18. Muskiemp @ 24

    Costello has totally ruined his brand; well the media did in constantly calling for him and he constantly hiding away until all gave up in frustration.
    Costello would do only marginally better than the rest – IMO.

    Turnbull is it I think.

  19. Dario, just saying that, now the formation of new AWAs is no more, the Liberals can no longer put teenagers (or anyone, for that matter) on gouging individual “agreements”, whether it be to to hand out HTVs or anything else.

  20. [Dario, just saying that, now the formation of new AWAs is no more, the Liberals can no longer put teenagers (or anyone, for that matter) on gouging individual “agreements”, whether it be to to hand out HTVs or anything else.]

    Ah ok

  21. Shrike,

    The 4 polls that ran during Turnbulls first week as leadership were Newspoll (LNP+1), EMC (LNP+2 once you use just the single week from their rolling fortnight average), Morgan Phone (LNP+1) plus the ACN result. Individually it’s all MoE movement, but the probability of all of them collectively moving in one direction is pretty small.

    I can’t give you an exact percent chance of these moments being random because of the rounding of numbers that pollsters use, but it’s ‘at most’ about an 8% chance thereabouts that these polls could move the way they did together as random chance.
    The real probability is more likely to be less than 3% but cant really be calculated using the public data.

  22. [Sooner or later the Liberals are going to have to realise the problem is not their leader as their polling is the same under Howard, Nelson or Turnbull. The problem is them.]

    So true and they seem to have wasted a year. Policies? Petrol excise and Single Pensions. Opposing the Budget. But little else.

    Someone needs to grab the Rabble by the scruff of the neck and sort out what they stand for. Except they can’t really agree on that. 🙁

  23. Thomas Paine @ 29 –

    Costello has totally ruined his brand; well the media did in constantly calling for him and he constantly hiding away until all gave up in frustration.
    Costello would do only marginally better than the rest – IMO.

    You’re being way to generous, IMHO. If the lack of enthusiasm for Da Book is any guide, Lib polling numbers are likely to sink without trace with Cossie in charge.

    Their best option would be to return to being the Liberal Party, not the Howard Party. But I don’t see that happening any time soon. It can take a long time for ‘true believers’ to become disillusioned.

  24. The Libs are pathetic! We want some policies.

    How about some fantastic innovation incentives for people to apply their brains in their fields of expertise. They should simplyfy the intellectual property procedures and to protect people with their ideas further.

    C’mon Talcum, that would be a start to combat labors education revolution. Sheez. If they continue with populist politics they’re starring down a 100 to 50 seat defeat at best.

  25. Centre

    You are not wrong at the moment the polls are showing an 18 seat gain to Labor, that would give them 101. The Libs/Nats would have 47.

    Not as bad for the Libs/Nats as the 23 seats they lost last Nov. So it could be spun that Turnbull lost less than Rat Man.

  26. I dont even know why we discuss Morgan they are a joke, always have and always will be. It’s funny you’re all taking their polling seriously!

    Also face to face polling it stupid, of course it will have a Labor Bias DUH!

  27. Wasn’t Morgan the closest to the actual result at the last election with his poll taken immediately before the election?

  28. [Wasn’t Morgan the closest to the actual result at the last election with his poll taken immediately before the election?]
    I think so, I think it was 53.5/46.5

    I think Galaxy got the same too.

  29. I’ll accept that Gary Morgan himself is a joke but that doesn’t mean that his polls have no credibility.

    I don’t believe any of the pollsters have any hidden agenda. They are all reputable research companies using legitimate methods to measure public opinion.

    None of them should be dismissed simply because we don’t like their findings.

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