Roy Morgan has released a mid-week phone survey of 574 respondents on attitudes to the party leaders, which has 55 per cent favouring Kevin Rudd against 30 per cent for Malcolm Turnbull. Kevin Rudd has a 55 per cent approval rating and 31 per cent disapproval; Malcolm Turnbull’s figures are 43 per cent and 24 per cent. The sample produced a two-party result of 57-43 in favour of Labor: no further detail on voting intention is provided.
UPDATE: Aristotle in comments points out that primary vote figures from the survey are available on Morgan’s poll trends page: Labor 46.5 per cent, Coalition 34.5 per cent, Greens 8 per cent, others 4.5 per cent.
Keep reading, Itep, you’ll learn a lot here.
It’s not Swan’s job to check the transcripts of every Turnbull interview and analyse them for economic nuances and accidental parallel ideas. It’s his job to introduce an idea, well-planned in advance and not commentate out loud on it until the formal announcement is made. All kinds of nasty things can happen when the Treasurer of the country brainstorms off the cuff about whether his opponent’s idea is a good one or not. Markets get nervous, there are potential runs on banks (I man, what if the market wrongly interpreted comments on this by Swan – before it happened – as panic by the government, as happened in America? The speculation would have been horrible to behold), investors offlay shares, mortgagees start fretting and generally things get very bleak indeed.
Even if Turnbull’s was the same idea as Swan had in the pipeline, Swan had to deny it to try to arrest possible panic in a jittery market.
This is Talcum’s thought bubble –
“We know that it has been very, much harder for banks, particularly the second-tier banks and financial institutions, to refinance mortgages and that’s one of the reasons why the cost of mortgages has gone up, why interest rates have gone up. Now, in other markets, the government, particularly in the US, the government is taking a role, proposing to buy back, buy some of these securities, in effect to provide additional liquidity to take the pressure off mums and dads. As George Bush said, it’s not just a question of Wall Street, it’s a question of main street. Now, again, we’ve got the capacity to do that through the office of financial management, which manages the Commonwealth’s, you know, asset base, if you like, liquid asset base. ”
Thats it – this is the whole basis of Mesmer and Avuncular’s claim that it was Talcum’s idea.
ruawake, it would be nice to know on what date Talcum’s thought bubble occurred because I can remember a couple of economists bringing up the issue just prior to the 20/20 summit and then there was this paper:
http://works.bepress.com/joshuagans/17/
Plagiarism seems to be rife on the Opposition side at present.
Ruawake, it’s also a crock because all four of the banks have parked billions in cash with the RBA. They don’t need it because they have liquidity.
Update from Josh Gans here:
http://economics.com.au/
steve
Last Sunday – interview with Oakes.
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=635081
HSO, I think that this is aimed at second tier lenders such as Aussie Home Loans etc. rather than the big four banks.
[HSO, I think that this is aimed at second tier lenders such as Aussie Home Loans etc. rather than the big four banks.]
That is correct
Yep, steve and Dario, that’s why I said earlier that Turnbull’s proposition was pretty stupid, given that the big 4 didn’t need any injection of funds. They’ve got heaps of cash, parked currently with the RBA. Ir’s also why I said Swan’s move was a targetted one. Much more sensible.
Turnbull is a goose, and the run-up to Xmas is a dangerous time for geese.
H.S.O. the representative of the big banks went public after Turnbull spouted this rubbish and said they didnt need his bailout.
Turnbul and Bishop are out there trying to deceive. They are claiming that the “genious” Turnbul thought of this plan all by himself and that Swan copied him. Where in fact this has been in the pipeline for the last 6 months waiting to be applied, if it was required and then proceed with the plan.
For Turnbul to bring this forward at such a touchy world financial situation is tantumount to sabotage. Swan had no alternative but to try and debunk the plan until all the i’s and t’s are dotted and crossed.
Julie Bishop. Saying the name says it all.
Wonder if they have ever run an honesty, arrogance, out of touch etc poll on her? That would be interesting, to contrast her and Gillard.
The best thing that could happen to Australian politics would be the resignation of Bishop, Minchin and their kind that would allow Turnbull to pursue the policies he would normally pursue. And Australian politics be fought over more central ground. In fact if he does get a good boost in the polls maybe he like Rudd will take that advantage to force the policies he wants onto the LNP.
Julia Gillard is the featured guest on INSIDERS tomorrow!
I wonder which right wing toads the panel has been stacked with this week?
The last time she was on she told Cassidy to stop acting like a jilted lover.
[The last time she was on she told Cassidy to stop acting like a jilted lover.]
One of my favourite moments 🙂
At the Opera House all night. Got out and up the Gore Hill Fwy a bit and was then surrounded by lots of cars with waving Manly flags sticking out the windows. I had a bad feeling about it. Turned on the ABC News at 11pm to hear the death knell of my $165 (won as funny money off Maxine McKew’s win in Bennelong… had to reinvest). Ruined a perfectly good night of flamenco dancing. The Warriors were paying $3.50. Would have been a tidy win.
What really $hits me is that the first time I considered betting my Monopoly Money stash was on India to win the test they actually won. But couldn’t get to the internet as I was away on a camping holiday. That one would have been $1,500 take home.
I guess this money was never destined to be in my pocket, eh? Still, reinforces the eternal truth about myself: I am no gambler. Never liked pokies, horses or black jack. Gambling and illicit drugs have been two vices that have passed me by, thankfully. If only it wasn’t for the booze and ciggies I’d be a perfect angel.
To make things worse, before the NRL scores were announced, I heard Bishop spouting her errant “I bags Malcolm being the first one think about it” nonsense. Have these people no shame? The world is falling apart, Swan is trying to manage the economy as best he can, without causing a panic in the markets, and all Bishop wants to do is play a stupid game about who thought of what first. I suppose I should look at it analytically and realise that it means they’re insecure, but somehow it still rankles. Couple that with the Raiders wimping out and I was ready to run down the first possum I saw crossing the road on the rest of the way home. Yeah, we did see one, and no, I didn’t run it down. I have standards, unlike some Opposition shadow ministers I could mention.
The good thing is they can’t complain about it now, pretty well whatever happens. And with the enormity of the meltdown this week, it’ll be hard to pin anything on Swan economically. Sub-Prime, September 2008 version, washed all that guff about “Talking up inflation” away, for good this time.
BB
had the rusted on mother in law over
she said the usual fib thoughtbubbles but interestingly went on how rudd was right in going to the us-whilst I was arguing the opposite,she stated that we need to preserve our rating and rudd was only doing what jho would’ve done.
sometimes you just cant take a trick
“Jho”?
For a minute there I thought you meant “Joh”.
This “Prime Tourist” crapola will wash away pretty soon. You could almost hear the collective sigh of relief around the country when the cash injection was announced. Whatever turnbull and Bishop say about this, the credit will go to Labor for actually doing something. I think the punters will realise you don’t organize a $4 billion fillip to the non-bank lenders between Laurie Oakes on Sunday and Tony Jones on Thursday.
The more the Libs try to take the credit, the more they will look like a small party, a little party, greedy, barbarous and cruel. And they’d better not get in the way of the Surplus. It’s REALLY vital now.
Politics and the media … Is it really so hard to understand?
Master’s of the economy, is the main tag when you’re trying to get votes
Rudd, while doing what he thinks is best as PM, also has his eye set firmly on the “yep, I will trust this guy with my readies” vote
Turnbull will do his best to claim the same title. So if the Rudd does well on something fiscal, Turnbull will try to link himself into it. If Rudd does badly, Turnbull will try to belt him for it
Everything that’s happened recently and all the responses fall inside this frame
So what’s the point of discussing the entrails?
Some media reports will slant one way or another, almost every time. A number of commentators are employed purely for such a slant, where’s the catch?
I think the *Australian* gets a HUGE amount of it hits/sales from people who hate them. If every OO hating blogger stopped reading it (online version at least) then clicks (sales) would drop significantly.
Perhaps I’m missing something (I’m sure greater minds will set me straight)
I think you do have a point.
Then again, they don’t need to make a profit, so my reading won’t change that outlook.
I think the *Australian* gets a HUGE amount of it hits/sales from people who hate them.”
not from me , if ‘OO’ is not “reported” on a blog site then I’m none th wiser
When OO is reported on a blog site I’m still none th wiser
Should hav a campaign to deny Uncle rupert ‘left’ contributions , a campaign for ‘left’ supporters called whatever…maybe ‘unclick OO clicks’ , uncle rupert has enough monies
Wayne Swan in normative circumstances would hav been severely criticised for his lack of ‘short selling’ consultations seeing he involved principally ASIC but almost left ASX out of loop …bad mistake normally
but given sensitivity of markets in US facing total colllapse at time & effect on ‘oz’ market , Swan (correctly) effectively left ASX out of loop for secrecy sake to actualy protect th oz market from unwanted pre publicity of his plans What Turnbull has done in ‘leaking’ coinfidential info effectively on th 4 billion plan that he must hav got wrongly from a 2nd tier lender or otherwise involved in deal is breach proprity of a’oz’ national intersts in ptotecting th market for his short term gain of alleegedly being his idea some info is sacred & this was a case that Turnbull has tainted iresponsibly
Pat Farmer intimates to Kerry-Anne Walsh of the Sun-Herald that he might quit politics after being deservedly dumped from the front bench last week, which would initiate a very interesting by-election in his seat of Macarthur. He nonetheless says that he has “every intention at this stage” of completing his term.
Very unwelcome to Labor I’d imagine , especialy NSW and a ‘battlers’ seat as well Did not take him long (8 months) to be ‘restless’ in an Opposition non shadow cabinet position
No 325
William on what grounds do you say he “deservedly” lost his front bench position? I note you said a similar thing about Bronny.
For talking this drivel on election night. Anyone with that attitude has no business being in politics.
Ouch
No 328
Sorry William, I don’t see anything there that is remotely offensive or indeed inappropriate for a politician. It appears to be a perfectly normal reaction given the situation.
I suppose you think Howard’s concession speech would have benefited from some variation on “I don’t know what more you have to do to please people”. Shame you didn’t get to write it.
No 331
Point taken. But Pat Farmer isn’t the PM.
Re: William’s link at number 328 …
Pat Farmer is basically complaining about being “unfairly dismissed”. After all the hard work he’d put into the job, too! More than a touch of the right-to-rule mentality there.
Then, in comments (the final comment on the page, by ‘nat’), it becomes clear that Farmer is an unapologetic defender of WorkChoices. One of the central tenets of which was to abolish protection from unfair dismissal for everyone else.
So, on the one hand, he is quite obviously comfortable with Australian employees being dismissed unfairly, and losing pay and conditions. But he cries loudly when dismissed himself (even though he knew the election was likely to bring his “dismissal”, along with the Coalition’s).
He at least had some warning of his impending job loss, a luxury his awful laws denied to other employees, who could be summarily dismissed on the spot, no warning, no reason even needed!
They advocate extreme and unfair workplace laws apply to everyone else .. and mouth off with sour grapes when they lose their own jobs as the electorate shows its displeasure over those same laws.
William’s right. He (they) shouldn’t be anyplace near being able to determine how other people conduct their affairs.
Pat Farmer is a typical Liberal blueblood in the respect he beleives he has a right to rule. These Born to Rule liberals need to realise that they are elected to Parliament to represent the views of the electorate that elected them, not just toe the party line by grovelling at the feet of his messiah JWH. If he is not intelligent enough to realise that JWH and most of his policies were on the nose, then his future as a politician are going to be severely limited. This is what makes his complaints rankle with arrogance and stupidity.
Tom.
Milne weaves a tangled web this morning in the Sunday Tele:
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,24412237-5001021,00.html
[According to members of the then shadow cabinet, Dr Nelson pushed for the base rate pension increase but Mr Turnbull was privately highly sceptical, concerned that off the back of Dr Nelson’s post-Budget pledge to cut petrol excise by 5c a litre, the then Opposition leader was trashing the Liberal “brand” for responsible economic management.
“Let’s face it,” said one former member of the shadow cabinet, “Malcolm opposed any policy Brendan was in favour of.”]
A nice snipe at Turnbull. Then this, in another article:
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,24411595-5001031,00.html
[Nelson’s(pensions) plan was pure Opposition populist politics. But, sometimes that’s what Oppositions have to do, to get the oxygen usually sucked up by the decision-making intake of incumbent governments.]
“Populist politics”, everyone knows that, but that isn’t going to stop Glenn writing about it as if it’s real. It’s all in the perception.
So, is Turnbull ratting on his leader, opposing any policy he was in favour of, or a responsible politician concerned about a wacky, populist and damaging stunt?
Seems if you’re Glenn Milne, you can have it both ways.
Oh, and yes, Rudd is out of touch because he was in New York and hadn’t spoken to Swan for a few hours before he spoke to journalists.
[Expect to hear more of that quote from the Opposition, in the context of being “out of touch”. Roughly translated, it means: “I have a reform plan for the G20, but no idea about the on-the-ground impact of this crisis in Australia.”
Just the caricature the Coalition wants to paint of Rudd.]
How would Glenn know? And is it true, or even wise… or just vacuuous “populist politics”?
Glenn reports, you decide.
I noticed that the “Editorial” in the Tele had pretty well word for word, some of the Liberal talking sheet rubbish being sprouted by Lib pollies in the media and is everywhere on various blog sites on the net.
[Rudd’s approach to international issues (does he even have a foreign minister? Anyone remember his name?) is as though there were no such thing as an information age. Mediums like email exist so people can stay in touch over vast distances. There is also something called a telephone.]
I thought this was funny though.
[But Kevin Rudd’s travel addiction is getting out of hand. There are Qantas pilots who rack up fewer air miles.]
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,24409257-5001031,00.html
These Liberal party journalists of course cannot stand that the Rudd government is so popular and cruising along so well. It is extreme spite – the Tele’s line is just another meme the the murdoch gang have invented to try and negate Rudd’s overseas success.
By the way, Telegraph fools, you don’t send a foreign minister to meet other government leaders.
They also try to run the one term government meme and the Turnbull is something special and lovable meme and whatever it is they think will harm the government and help the Liberal party. The worst thing about them is they actually have to invent the data/fact on which to base their program. In other words they have to lie through their teeth because the reality is the opposite. You would think murdoch would be embarrassed that his papers produce such trash and yes – are a corruption of democracy. The media being an important part of any successful democracy.
Julia Gillard continues to impress me with her coolness and confidence, illustrated on INSIDERS this morning!
If Pat Farmer retired from Federal Politics early, you might find the constituents of Macarthur take out their anger on the Libs. Farmer hasn’t been living in South Western Sydney for a while, he currently resides in that battler area of Mosman.
Editorials rarely carry any weight because few people read them. Let them do their damndest I say, it hasn’t worked in the past and won’t work now.
I notice The Sunday Morongraph is also criticising a state minister because he dare put his rent up on a property he owns. Is anyone else doing any different? What about the Libs, surely some of them own rental properties and wouldn’t be renting them out for a song.
Pat Farmer is first class, blue blooded sook. I hope he quits so that a marginal seat can be tested at a by election.
my goodness isnt ackerman an embarassment!
On Insiders, Ackerman said that Rudd always turns his back to the opposition when he answers questions. This proves he doesn’t watch question time, because if he did, he would be aware that the opposition complains that Rudd turns his back on THE SPEAKER during answering questions.
The Insiders degrades the program, the ABC, the audience, and the taxpayers of Australia, by featuring the hateful Liberal Party stooge, Piers Akerman, on the show.
I personally don’t mind Mr Akerman supporting the Liberal Party. I’d be worried if I ever agreed with him and it certainly doesn’t do the Liberal Party any favours.
Crabbe and Farr weren’t going to put up with Pies today. They ripped him to pieces almost every time he opened his mouth, for example on the condensate tax issue. It sound like either the others on the panel have agreed to shut him up, or that Pies has been warned to be on his best behavior by the show’s producers.
342 Does Akerman remember a certain John Winston Howard who seemingly perfected that technique?
If Howard (or any Liberal) did or does it, it would be a gesture beyond reproach in the (one) eye of Akerman. If anyone from Labor does it, it is unreservedly despicable. Black and white, good and bad, Liberal and Labor – that’s Piers’ blinkered stance.
Macarthur HA you’re dreaming if you think the Liberals will lose that seat if Pat goes, considering the magnitude of the swing at the 07 election at least half of those protest votes will come back to the Liberals. I’d just about eat my hat if we lost that seat especially with Malcolm Turnbull as Leader.
[you’re dreaming if you think the Liberals will lose that seat if Pat]
Pat did have a very strong profile. The new candidate will want to have one or they may lose quite a bit.
Dario if we didnt lose it in 2007 when everything was falling, i cannot see why we’d lose it now.