Galaxy: Rudd 58, Turnbull 28

Findings of a Galaxy poll published in today’s News Limited papers from a small sample of 400 (nothing on voting intention):

• Kevin Rudd leads Malcolm Turnbull as preferred leader 58 to 28 per cent. The last federal Galaxy poll in March had Rudd leading Brendan Nelson 69 per cent to 15 per cent.
• Twenty-three per cent of respondents said they would be more likely to vote Liberal with Turnbull as leader than they would have been with Nelson, against 11 per cent less likely.
• Fifty-three per cent believe Turnbull would give the Liberals a better chance at the next election against 35 per cent for Peter Costello.
• Forty-eight per cent of respondents considered Turnbull “arrogant” against 23 per cent for Rudd.
• Fifty-one per cent considered Rudd a “strong leader” against 30 per cent for Turnbull, and 49 per cent thought Rudd “decisive” (surely much the same thing) against 30 per cent for Turnbull.
• Fifty-six per cent of respondents believed Rudd had a “a vision of the future” and 52 per cent thought him “in touch with voters”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

304 comments on “Galaxy: Rudd 58, Turnbull 28”

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  1. [with the news cycle the way it is now, you do have to play a good short game.]

    great analogy.

    That was always the Bomber’s problem – great off the tee, got the yips with the puts

    Latham, thought the whole contest was about who could drive the longest

    Nelson is most liekly great and the short game, unfortunately he used a putter off the tee.

    Costello was the man off the tee, but when ever he got sight of the green he collapsed in nervous shakes.

    Which is why he and Howard were a great team at foursomes – Costello put it on the green, Howard drained the putts.

  2. [Nelson is most likely great and the short game, unfortunately he used a putter off the tee.]

    Unfortunately he either “Hooked” it left into the water or “Sliced” it out of bounds on the right and had to keep reloading and hitting off again from number 1 tee.

    He never got to finish the first hole and was unable to get much of a look at the other 17!

  3. Talcum has said:

    “Our proposal will cover single aged pensions and people on service pensions that are getting the same single service aged pensions,” he said.

    “We honour and respect and understand the needs of the veterans community.”

    So next week it will be Rudd turning his back on Veterans. I can smell the headlines already.

    The problem for Turnbull is he will open yet another can of worms – all the veterans grievances that Howard ignored will be dragged up. F111 re seal-deseal, Lon Tan veterans are just two that spring to mind.

    Told you he is a political dunce. 🙂

  4. One habit Labor should avoid is engaging the LNP on anything, it only gives them some sort of credibility. Likewise they should refer to them as opposition or Liberals. this starves them.

  5. whats funny about Janet Pies and friends is that they have not been jolted into reality by the election result. They are having a field day about how well Turnbull will do without a single poll to back them up

  6. Macklin resonds to the new pension plan:

    “We can see from the Senate motion last week, the first motion the Liberals put in on September 17 was different from that which is now on the notice paper from the 18th of September,” she said.

    “Goodness knows what they’ll put in tomorrow. This is policy on the run from the Liberal Party.”

    I guess for the Libs it’s a case of something must be done, this is something, therefore this must be done.

  7. I’m suss on the no voting intentions for Galaxy. Why would they ask about issues and PPM but not voting intention? Was it not the result they were hoping for??

  8. Andrew

    Galaxy gets paid by News Ltd. But as Shamahan notes we understand Newspoll because we own it.

    I think news would really like their own pollster to release the Talcum “bounce”. So they only commissioned Galaxy to do the PPM stuff.

    But Fairfax may gazump them with a Neilson. 🙂

  9. My Grandma, who lives on the N.S.W South Coast, was polled by Newspoll this weekend. She’s a Labor voter, and very happy with Rudd!

  10. Grog at 202

    You’re right. Bomber could drive it 400 yards on the fly but always looked clumsy with a putter in his hands.

    In the end it’s all about reading the slope and the slope that I don’t think the Libs have accounted for (whether because they are blind to it or because it is unpalatable to many within the party) is the failure of the infallible market philosophy.

    Climate change really is the Karma that ran over their dogma. It undeniably (though they did their best) demonstrates that the sum of individual acts of self interest don’t always add up to the common interest.

    Don’t get me wrong, I think that the free market – for the most part – serves us very, very well indeed. But I also think that people are starting to realise that the whiff of something unpleasant wafting through the corridors of power is emanating from the streaming philosophical turd of market infallibility hanging out of the arse of the free marketeers. Sometimes individual acts of self interest just add up to one gross act of self interest.

    Ironically, the Libs may have chosen a leader who actually subscribes to this espoused philosophy – rather than the political opportunism of Howard, Abbott, Nelson et al – at exactly the point in time that global events (climate change, market meltdowns) and shifting public perceptions are showing it up to be the nonsense it is.

    Might have worked if Turnball (or indeed Costello) had come to power around 2003-4. But it may well be that Turnball is yesterdays man before he begins. Or at least is trying to drive off the tee into a headwind of public opinion.

    He’s a free marketeer and a former merchant banker. Their the ones who got us into this mess … and that one … and that other one over there …

  11. With regards to Possum’s Turnbull poll bounce competition, I notice that there are 25% picking 51% or less TPP for Labor from PB. We are going to be humiliated as a site by this renegade group when Newspoll comes out. I propose a one week ban for anyone more than 4% away from the true margin. We have standards, they might not be very high but we still have them! 😉

  12. It stands to reason that 51% or less and 61% or more are two options that theoretically should gain more votes than a single percent point (e.g. 52%). I doubt most Labor supporters would think the polls will be 61% or more… but Liberal supporters can at least hope for 51% or less.

  13. Diogenes, Possum, William

    Is there a way to see how the vote is progressing without having to vote again? Or is this secret squirrel stuff? 😉

    I admit I did vote on Pollytics and PB. 🙂

  14. What about a Last Man Standing Death Polls Knockout competition? Everyone outside the MOE is eliminated and that keeps going each fortnight until there’s only one left standing.

  15. Love these two comments from Bob Ellis’s blog. Firstly, “DocMercury ®”;

    [Peter Costello has done a lot more than I have, and he is only a year older, so I’ll hold my peace.

    ..still, he missed a bloody good party!]

    And “BlzBob’s” reply;

    [Yeah but Doc, if you had achieved all that Peter Costello had, you would keep your mouth shut.]

  16. Well, somebody reads the Sunday Telegraph.

    Just had a convo with my next door neighbour while putting out the garbage on a Sunday night.

    [“Well, how’s you’re mate now?”

    “Who doyou mean?”

    “Dudd mate. The Big Duddsville.”

    “What’s he done now?”

    “Aw mate… taking a holiday when the wold’s falling apart, mate!”

    “Uhm… I ‘d rather he was in New York speaking to the movers and shakers rather than here so Turnbull can bignote himself.”

    “Mate. What a fraud mate. Sucking off the taxpayer with that fat cow of his. He’s gone mate. Rudd’s finished.”

    “What do you mean?”

    “Turnbull’s gonna wipe his ar$s mate. Now he’s really got someone who’ll flatten him.”

    “Er, I don’t think so.”

    “And Queensland, mate. Heiner’s gonna go BIG, mate.”

    “You read the Tele too much.”

    “And what about Shorten? Bonk the GG’s daughter. I tell ya. There all up themselves. And they do it with taxpayers money.”

    “You haven’t paid tax in years.”

    “Why would I pay those wankers anything? They’re finished. You were sucked in mate.”]

    I know my next door neighbour hasn’t paid tax, the mortgage, alimony, any bills except electricity for at least 8 years since I’ve been living next to him. His girlfriend is always lamenting that he should get an accountant and sort out his unpaid tax problems (he is self employed). Meanwhile his wife pays the mortgage on their house, but doesn’t live there. He won’t let her past the front door.

    This is putting a face on the angry Krudd-knocking contributors to the Telegraph Blogs: lazy, bludging, whingers who bash women both physically and financially and then blame Rudd for the mess their lives have become. Well, at least one of them’s like that. Unfortunately he’s my neighbour.

    This man is utterly convinced by Pies, Milne and whatever the latest Telegraph smear campaign tells him. I know they’re in a minority, but it’s still unsettling to see the hatred on their faces as they talk about the Rudd and his government and regurgitate the latest “scandal” those crappy rags dish up as news and political opinion.

  17. BB,

    Put a bunch of them together and you have the basis for a successful TV series.

    Kath & Kim could never compete. I lived next door to a rabid Pauline Hansen supporter.

    You’re getting off lightly.

  18. Never admitted to voting Labor, to me at least.

    He’s your classic “white trash”. Sorry for the pejorative term, but it’s appropriate to this guy. He’s always bellicosely angry about something. He’s been convicted of assault twice in the eight years I’ve known him. I’m the only neightbour who speaks to him. Everyone else can’t bear the sight of him. He used to bash his wife before she left in self defence (she now lives up the road in a rented flat). When his (independently wealthy) girlfriend went away for three months overseas this year all I heard from him was that she was a $lut who’d f** the first gigolo who came along (his source: her ex-husband!). The whole street is gradually being occupied by his “fleet” (as the locals call it). Two boats, four cars (one on blocks with the front bashed in). He’s into every lurk there is: extra garbage bins, excessive water use with a fraudulently obtained water usage permit from Sydney Water (he does some gardening and other handyman work around the suburb). And he doesn’t pay any tax. Couldn’t afford to. They’d take him to the cleaners in fines and interest for the years he hasn’t even put a return in. He even uses a leaf blower to blow his grass cuttings and fallen leaves onto his other neighbour’s driveway. A total the-world-owes-me-a-living type.

    I speak to him because I have to live next door to him, and because he knows everything that goes on in the district (yes, his other nickname is “Radar”… a perennial busybody). And also because he’s never done me any overt harm. I know he has a gentle side (the girlfriend brings that out… when she’s not away on holiday) and is very skilled with his hands. But my God he’s annoying at times.

    He’s your classic target for the Telegraph smear merchants. They tap into the hatreds and inadequacies of people like my neighbour and, in the process, belittle us all. I mostly just ignore him, but this evening he got up my goat so much I needed to write it up.

  19. [He seriously mentioned the Heiner affair?]

    Absolutely. Just before the election when The Australian blew the story to smithereens I printed off the two stories on it and took them in to show him and his girlfriend.,25197,22560793-2702,00.html,25197,22572159-601,00.html

    “Here’s proof, ” I said. “The story’s false.”

    Their reply?

    “That rag is full of Rudd lovers. Who’d believe THAT?”

    They have followed the Heiner story point by point, every time Pies writes about it I get a comment along the lines, “A respected journalist like Akerman wouldn’t just make this up.”

    You really can’t win.

    To my neighbour the connection between Rudd, Bryce, Shorten, Bryce’s daughter, Heiner, and the three gay butlers is some kind of high level nest of corruption and putrescence that is typical of Labor in office, in his mind anyway. He can’t be shaken out of it.

    But it’s the way his face screws up with complete hatred that actually upsets me. The rest I can ignore.

  20. [In Beecroft? Yikes… it was a sleepy place when I grew up there]

    Well it’s a very quiet corner of Beecroft, down near the bush on the western side. He’s pretty atypical of the locals, who are mostly pretty quiet in that smug, leafy suburb sort of way. For a start he’s only 55. The average age around here seems to be 92.

  21. I watched both 7 and 9 news services tonight to see how they handled Rudd’s trip and Malcolm’s criticisms of Rudd going away. 7 didn’t mention Malcolm at all while nine showed that part of his interview with Oakes but also showed Rudd giving his reason’s for going. They also mentioned that Malcolm had visited the US himself not long ago and had said that it was necessary for him to be their in person. In other words Malcolm came out of it looking like a whinger. So there you go.

  22. Gary @235

    It was always going to play out that way. And that’s even before the cool footage of confident Rudd addressing the UN (see post 198).

    Way to poke oneself in the eye Turnball.

  23. My view is that there are various kinds of Liberal supporters.

    The “Old Libs” The Lord Dolly types, who still long for the days when they ruled the colony.

    The “New Libs” The movers and shakers (in their eyes) the ones who really know what a collateralised debt instrument is or at least they thought so, they normally have “and associates” on their busines cards.

    Then we have the “Small Business Libs” the ones who long to be one of the above – but in reality have bought themselves a job.

    Next is the “Aspirational Libs” who have the feeling they are better than the guy next door – and are about to go bankrupt because they believed a “New Lib”.

    Last is the “I have voted Lib since Menzies formed the party” unfortunately time is catching up with them.

    Talcum has to frame policies to get others to vote for him, mission impossible. 🙂

  24. I might be stupid or something but having the PM in New York, which is the epicentre of the financial world, during the biggest economic upheaval since 1929 must be very hard to complain about. Aren’t we incredibly lucky that our PM happens to be there so he can meet all the relevant players while he’s there? Isn’t that a good thing?

  25. ruawake @ 238

    Love the Lib votership breakdown. Not only does Talcum have no chance of pulling in new voters but so far I can’t see him holding on to the old ones.

    “PM shouldn’t be going OS to talk to US financial regulators” can’t be going down well with your “New Libs”.

    And “the PM is boring” can’t be going down well with your “I have voted Lib since Menzies formed the party” group.

    So thus far he has alienated 2 of your 5 remaining Lib constituent groups. Not bad going in a week.

  26. BTW, just an ad for Rove who has Rudd on as a guest to mark his 51st Birthday with “a gift fit for a PM”

    You won’t see Talcum or the Libs do TV aimed at the 18-24’s, nor FM Breakfast Radio.

  27. Don’t forget, Howard was in Washington when the Pentagon was hit. always claimed that this was his moment of epiphany on Foreign Affairs.

  28. [Don’t forget, Howard was in Washington when the Pentagon was hit. always claimed that this was his moment of epiphany on Foreign Affairs.]

    Pity he wasn’t IN the Pentagon at the time 🙂

    But I do seem to recall the Meeja praising the Garden Gnome over his statesmanlike behaviour in the US at the time.

  29. [But I do seem to recall the Meeja praising the Garden Gnome …]

    Yes, and quietly forgetting his clandestine meeting with Rupert Murdoch in NY the night before, that was supposed to have been off the books.

  30. [But I do seem to recall the Meeja praising the Garden Gnome over his statesmanlike behaviour in the US at the time.]

    I remember he started to make a big deal about how Australia was going to invoke the ANZUS Treaty.

    It would’ve been news if we DIDN’T invoke the ANZUS Treaty given that an attack on the U.S. mainland counts as an an attack on the Australian mainland (and vice versa).

  31. [an attack on the U.S. mainland counts as an an attack on the Australian mainland ]

    Only if it’s an attack by another country, isn’t it?

    I didn’t think terrorist attacks counted. If they did why not invoke ANZUS after the first WTC bomb (the one that didn’t being them down)?

  32. The little fella was probably lickin’ his lips: Mercy! Here, finally, is my Grand Stage. (But it is dreadful … innocent … shocking … children … Janette! Tragic news! Tragic news …)

  33. John Howard’s National Press Club Address
    September 11, 2002

    “Thank you very much Mr Randall. A year ago yesterday, on the 10th of September, I met President George Bush for the very first time. I had spoken to him twice on the phone, but we spent together at different gatherings and in different ways three hours together on the day of the 10th of September. We attended a splendid ceremony at the Naval Dockyard in Washington, where the bell of the United States ship, Canberra, was handed over to Australia as a momenta of the alliance and friendship between us in World War II. Both of us at the ceremony reaffirmed the centrality of the ANZUS alliance and that particular ceremony was a way of marking, during my visit to Washington, the importance of the alliance to both of us. We then had a lengthy discussion in the White House. I was impressed with the President’s extraordinary grasp of the whole range of world issues. And I was particularly struck, and I think it’s important in the context of current events, at the commitment he! had to building a very constructive relationship between the United States and Russia. And he spoke very warmly of his personal regard for President Putin. Later that afternoon, I went to the Pentagon, renewed my aquaintanceship with Donald Rumsfeld, who I’d met with Colin Powell when they came to Canberra the previous July for the Ausmin talks. And then, as many in the media know, I had dinner with Rupert Murdoch in Washington and a few people remarked that they thought that was going to be the story of the visit. But sadly of course, events unfolded the next day which have, although it’s a cliché to say so, it’s nonetheless absolutely true, events that have changed the world. It’s difficult to say anything new or different about those extraordinary events, but one must try. ”

    He went to collect a friggin bell and have lunch with Rupert.

  34. In purely monetary terms, the $1 trillion bail-out is actually more significant than both the Iraq and Afghanistan Wars. The Americans haven’t spent that amount on the Wars yet, although the extended cost in lives, healthcare for Vets etc is $3 trillion. The flow-on effects on other countries is much more than the Wars. The equivalent bailout in Oz would be about $75 billion of taxpayers dollars. Imagine if that happened here.

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