Galaxy: Rudd 58, Turnbull 28

Findings of a Galaxy poll published in today’s News Limited papers from a small sample of 400 (nothing on voting intention):

• Kevin Rudd leads Malcolm Turnbull as preferred leader 58 to 28 per cent. The last federal Galaxy poll in March had Rudd leading Brendan Nelson 69 per cent to 15 per cent.
• Twenty-three per cent of respondents said they would be more likely to vote Liberal with Turnbull as leader than they would have been with Nelson, against 11 per cent less likely.
• Fifty-three per cent believe Turnbull would give the Liberals a better chance at the next election against 35 per cent for Peter Costello.
• Forty-eight per cent of respondents considered Turnbull “arrogant” against 23 per cent for Rudd.
• Fifty-one per cent considered Rudd a “strong leader” against 30 per cent for Turnbull, and 49 per cent thought Rudd “decisive” (surely much the same thing) against 30 per cent for Turnbull.
• Fifty-six per cent of respondents believed Rudd had a “a vision of the future” and 52 per cent thought him “in touch with voters”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

304 comments on “Galaxy: Rudd 58, Turnbull 28”

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  1. Oh dear, Cossie has to really look for a job now.

    [DESPITE the hype surrounding its launch — or perhaps because of it — The Costello Memoirs has suffered weak sales in its first five days in the stores……. Readings book stores report that only 100 copies sold at their five Melbourne retail stores last week — mostly at the Malvern store near Mr Costello’s seat of Higgins.]

  2. [Oh dear, Cossie has to really look for a job now]

    Fortunately for Tip, Labor has prohibited the forming of new Australian Workplace “Agreements”. Isn’t he lucky his SmirkChoices isn’t going to bite him personally.

  3. Costello’s book was massively over-exposed before it got launched. It was always going to be DOA.

    It’s not as if (as far as I know) there are any racy bits in it, either.

  4. # 251 Showson

    The ANZUS treaty only requires “consultations” no more. The yanks didn’t
    want to get sucked in. They must have been a lot smarter back then.

    Also never forget when rodent indicated he would ask clinton for help with
    the east timor intervention he was told by the septic administration not to ask
    as the answer would be NO. So gutless wonder rodent didn’t ask.

    OK – not within the scope by any way of ANZUS.

    But Rodent was after heavy lift aircraft and some other logistical assistance, plus – MAINLY – US jawboning of the Indos not to do anything stupid like getting into a fight with Australia which what INTERFET really was.

    Eventually the yanks came around and helped. The jawboning of the Indons was
    very important and effective.

    But I wouldn’t confidently rely too much on the yanks under ANZUS. Maybe they would materially assist us. Maybe not – despite the frequent fighter points we seem
    so eager to accumulate.

  5. [No. The Treaty covers any attack whatsoever.]

    But this was a criminal matter, wasn’t it?

    I know what the hype was, but ultimately it was a case of murder. and mayhem, not an attack on the United States itself.

  6. Sorry for the double post, but the Sub-Prime Loans probably have cause more economic damage, and many deaths (by suicide). Just guessing, but what’s the difference?

  7. Just looking again at the other Galaxy stats in the News Ltd story it appears even worse for Turnbull than I thought.

    In touch with voters is extremely low but what is worse is that his trust levels are at 18% which I guess comes from the Machiavellian rusted ons. Meaning no one trusts him except the blind faithful.

    Arrogant, untrustworthy and not representative of ‘us’ seems to be the verdict from this small poll. It makes you wonder how he can recover the situation if people see him as untrustworthy – his messages will always be taken with a pinch of salt.

    So if Labor strategists really really want to hit Turnbull where it hurts they should be focusing heavily on this ‘trustworthiness’ area. If you really reinforce the apparent negative opinion held of him by the electorate then it he loses all means whatsoever to climb back. IMHO

    This lack of trust also allows Labor to classify Turnbull policies as ‘sneaky’ which people will all too easily believe by the looks of it – thus if Turnbull releases a tax policy based on his review – calling it the ‘workchoices of tax policies’ will cut through.

    Rudd 58%
    Turnbull 28%

    Turnbull 48%
    Rudd 23%

    Turnbull 18%
    Rudd 47%

    In touch with voters:
    Turnbull 18%
    Rudd 52%

  8. Any tax policy Turnbull comes up with is going to look shoddy … if Labor can capitalise on his untrustworthiness / pandering to-the-rich perceptions.

  9. BB

    I hadn’t thought of that. There is a well documented relationship between suicide and economic recession. The suicide rate increases by up to 20% in a recession, but it depends on the country. There is some evidence that the adequacy of social security mitigates against the rise. The US has a crap social security buffer so they do poorly. The suicide rate in the US is 11/100,000 so a 20% increase would actually be about 8,000 extra suicides per year of recession (if severe).

    [New Zealand and Finland are both small, developed countries with governments that support redistributive welfare policies. A severe economic recession hit both countries in the late 1980s and early 1990s, but the New Zealand and Finnish governments reacted very differently: New Zealand reduced the scope of its welfare state and increased income inequalities, while in Finland income inequality did not increase, partly because Finland increased its social spending.

    In this document we examine institutional arrangements and the policy conditions that may have contributed to the differences in suicide rates, particularly those of young men (aged 15 to 24). In New Zealand the economic recession and rising income inequality was associated with increasing rates of suicide in young men, but the economic recession did not have the same effect in Finland. The more comprehensive welfare state in Finland appeared to buffer vulnerable young men more than in New Zealand.]

  10. Dio @ 262,

    Interesting stats about the link between recessions and the rate of suicide.

    Reminds me of what my first boss (in the financial services industry) once said to me about the difference between what we were doing and the work of doctors: “Sure, our mistakes can’t kill people, like doctors’ mistakes can, but our mistakes can certainly stuff up people’s lives”.

  11. It’s a bit of a puzzle why so many see him as untrustworthy – it’s not like he personally has done much to warrant that. He’s actually relatively honest for a Liberal. I think it’s the Liberal brand that is now seen as untrustworthy, not surprisingly after the eleven year record of lies and deceptions from Howard and Costello.

  12. Nitpicking point about comparisons with Finland, though – isn’t the rate of suicide always pretty high in Finland? So comparing the effect of recession there with the effect in NZ might not be a valid comparison?

  13. Dario @ 267,

    Just a shame he fudged out on the last question again. Also noticed he wasn’t as bubbly as he was pre-election, although he was still willing to play along. And we won’t started on his comments about moose…

  14. [Just a shame he fudged out on the last question again]

    Heheh, probably just as well!

    [And we won’t started on his comments about moose…]

    Yeah that was a bit wierd. Funny, but wierd.

  15. Wasn’t Mbeki the guy who didn’t believe in the existence of HIV? He thought it was a fairy story invented by someone or other for some reason or other – I’ve forgotten all the tawdry details.

    Maybe Palin wouldn’t be so out of place amongst world leaders …

  16. [Wasn’t Mbeki the guy who didn’t believe in the existence of HIV? He thought it was a fairy story invented by someone or other for some reason or other – I’ve forgotten all the tawdry details.]

    I think that’s him. Got booted for corruption issues. Whatever it takes I guess.

  17. Dyno @268:
    There’s a variant of your story attributed to the late Prof. Fred Gruen, in self-deprecatory mood:
    “What’s the difference between an economist (the government adviser variety) and a psychiatrist?
    A. A psychiatrist can only ruin one person’s life at a time.

  18. Big different one hasnt written 2 memoirs and been on Oprah.

    Also one has more leadership experience than the other, and id have to say Key wins that hands down.

  19. Adam: the latest poll in the U.K suggests Labour will be completely wiped out in the next general election, and be reduced to a rump!
    Would Miliband or anyone else even want the top job? They might be tempted to leave Brown there and let him carry the can for the defeat to come!

  20. dyno

    Finland’s suicide rate is quite high (20/100,000) as is most of Europe (dunno why). NZ, Oz and the US are much less (12/100,000). I agree that the study really just raises a hypothesis but no more.

    Mbeki isn’t really an AIDS denier. His Health minister was though. Mbeki thought AIDS was given more prominence than it warranted.

  21. Mbeki is an appeaser just like Chamberlain…look at what ‘freedom’ and ‘democracy’ has brought South Africa after apatheid, 1 president who used violence as a political weapon, 1 president who is corrupt and the next president who is also corrupt.

    All this and a one party state (ANC) makes for one miserable South Africa.

  22. dyno

    I should also add that your comments about doctors and other professions is true. Although medicine is viewed as life and death, it’s pretty rare for someone to die because of a stuff-up and even then the doc can think to themselves that it was the disease that killed the patient. People who run big organisations like Department Heads, CEOs and the like have the potential to cause hundreds of times more good or bad than a simple doctor. I’d have never-ending sleepless nights if I was in Rudd’s job. I’m frankly amazed more politicians don’t have nervous breakdowns.

  23. Dio,
    Thanks for the figures. I was under the impression that Scandinavian countries suffered greatly from SAD (Seasonal Affective Disorder) on account of the long, dark, cold winter. And that this was thought to be a driver of the high suicide rate.

    I must say that Sweden is the most depressing country of the 15 or so places that I have been to. A combination of a puritanical Protestant heritage, and socialism of the most formulaic kind (it’s all about rules, not about care for one’s fellow man), and the weather.

  24. Rudd triumphed on Rove.

    First time I’ve ever watched it. The man’s popular. No denying it. All this business about “oncer Rudd” is deluded wishful thinking.

  25. Dio,

    Interesting your comment about the pressure of being PM. Some leaders have cracked a bit under the strain of it all. I’m not sure that Gordon Brown’s coping all that well, for example.

  26. Glen @ 291

    You can’t exclude most of a nation from political, social and economic power for decades and then expect them all to suddenly adhere to the very same democratic principles that were denied them. It took centuries for all the major democracies to develop (including our own) and the stories of their births are riddled with conflicts and corruption.

    I don’t deny South Africa has her problems, but the stewardship shown by Mandela and Mbeki to take South Africa from racist regime to a reasonably functional democracy that despite its setbacks, flaws and incompleteness is moving in the right direction I count as the single most effective transition to democracy the world has ever seen.

    Show me a country that has done it better, or in a shorter time frame, or with less bloodshed, or without the corruption that comes with a sudden freeing up of social, economic and political capital. The US? France?

    You effectively just condemned a nation of people for not being far better at building democratic institutions than we have ever been. It takes decades if not centuries to set up a free society and then put in place the political, social and economic institutions that curb the abuse of those very freedoms.

    We still struggle with it here and we’ve had 220 years to work on it and that was on the back of a further 200 years work in England before we even started.

    South Africa has her problems, and there is corruption. But at least they haven’t recently started a war on false pretences that has killed 500,000 people.

    So get over it!

  27. Excuses excuses, how long can they keep the past and use it as an excuse for their own failings. You’d think after apartheid that they’d do everything they can to ensure honest and good government.

    All you have is a One Party State all over again instead of the National Party now its the ANC and yet the ANC are moving from one corrupt leader to another corrupt leader.
    So long as there is a One Party State in South Africa, nothing will change.

  28. As long as the Liberals believe a Messiah will save the day for them without any policy effort on their part, nothing will change.

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