Galaxy: Rudd 58, Turnbull 28

Findings of a Galaxy poll published in today’s News Limited papers from a small sample of 400 (nothing on voting intention):

• Kevin Rudd leads Malcolm Turnbull as preferred leader 58 to 28 per cent. The last federal Galaxy poll in March had Rudd leading Brendan Nelson 69 per cent to 15 per cent.
• Twenty-three per cent of respondents said they would be more likely to vote Liberal with Turnbull as leader than they would have been with Nelson, against 11 per cent less likely.
• Fifty-three per cent believe Turnbull would give the Liberals a better chance at the next election against 35 per cent for Peter Costello.
• Forty-eight per cent of respondents considered Turnbull “arrogant” against 23 per cent for Rudd.
• Fifty-one per cent considered Rudd a “strong leader” against 30 per cent for Turnbull, and 49 per cent thought Rudd “decisive” (surely much the same thing) against 30 per cent for Turnbull.
• Fifty-six per cent of respondents believed Rudd had a “a vision of the future” and 52 per cent thought him “in touch with voters”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

304 comments on “Galaxy: Rudd 58, Turnbull 28”

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  1. No 149

    Scorpio, nothing “positive” is reported about the overseas trip because nothing fruitful is likely to emerge from the gab-fest.

    That said, I really don’t have an issue with overseas travel by the PM.

  2. Also notice that even though the global financial system is in turmoil, the US system in meltdown and that this could have grave ramifications for this country, that the main concern for the LNP is pushing for a $30 per week rise for single pensioners. LOL

    And not a word of concern re this attitude of Barnaby’s by Phillip Coorey.

  3. [Looks like Bill Shorten is getting his rocks off with Quentin Bryce’s daughter. Ah, the ALP soap-opera continues unabated]

    Definitely one out of the blue. He had high prospects but I reckon they will take a serious hit over this.

  4. No 154

    Could never understand why Shorten was couched as a “star”. From the few performances I’ve seen on Q&A, he never appeared to be anything special. At least Maxine appears to have potential.

  5. [Could never understand why Shorten was couched as a “star”. From the few performances I’ve seen on Q&A, he never appeared to be anything special. At least Maxine appears to have potential.]

    He’s always come across to me as very down to earth, and I guess that is what the prospects were based on. Maxine I haven’t been as convinced about, but then I haven’t seen much of her lately.

  6. GP,

    You conservatives seem to have a thing about scandal and gossip. Pies Akerman certainly added his bit in his latest blog.

    [Displaying such a penchant for tart remarks, it is a wonder that Rann has not opined on the cute arrangements entered into by new Governor-General Quentin Bryce and PM’s wife Therese Rein, whose male private secretaries are long-time partners, or that he has not ventured his views on Rudd’s own male valet, whose tours with the prime minister provided a truly hilarious gallery of the world’s`pink’ districts.]

    http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/piersakerman/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/turnbull_needs_some_mongrel/

    Of course, people out here in the general community are going to be horrified by this revelation. It has such a major impact on the governing of the country!

  7. I think we can safely say that Bill Shorten’s chances of becoming prime minister are now pretty much out the window. Even Bob Hawke had enough political nous to wait until he left politics before leaving wife Hazel to marry Blanche D’alpuget..

  8. Adam,

    [male private secretaries are long-time partners, or that he has not ventured his views on Rudd’s own male valet]

    I hope they’re not catholics. Going straight to the fires of hell doesn’t seem to good to me.

  9. Turnbull seems to be doing a Nelson regarding the $6b budget black hole.

    “It is a drop in the ocean in a one trillion economy”, now it’s “Clearly, $6 billion is a gigantic amount of money in anyone’s terms,”

    But;

    “It’s a huge amount of money”,

    But;

    “(but) it would reduce government revenues by less than half of one per cent.”

    But then he says,

    “We’re not threatening the economy, we’re not vandalising the budget.”

    The next six Months are going to be very interesting. I love the headline.

    http://news.theage.com.au/national/well-block-gigantic-money-turnbull-20080921-4kty.html

  10. Adam,

    How right you are.

    I don’t read any of his stuff very often and never straight after a meal.

    It’s very hard to hold it down after reading any of his bile.

  11. Cuppa,

    Great link. I immediately bookmarked that to re-read whenever I feel that the Rudd Government is not quite reaching my quite high expectations of it.

  12. Some books are bought and read (Mr Greedy).

    Some books are bought and meant to be read (Mr Uppity).

    Some books are bought and never read (Mr Lazy).

    Some books aren’t bought (The Costello Memoirs).

  13. A bit of wishful thinking here, I believe. Apparently the thought that people couldn’t give a toss and don’t wish to part with their “hard earned” to read Costello’s self promotion, doesn’t come under his consideration.

    [Toorak bookshop owner David Marlow believes the switch from an October to mid-September release date may have confused the public about when the book would be available.]

    David, there is no confusion. We were all more than aware about the book launch.

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/seller-or-cellar-costello-book-ailing-20080920-4knm.html

  14. Hi Scorpio,

    I’m glad you enjoyed it. Yes, we did a very good thing last November. Can you imagine old Howard still araldited to seat now the Presidential race is on?

  15. [Toorak bookshop owner David Marlow believes the switch from an October to mid-September release date may have confused the public about when the book would be available.]

    lol what a load of tosh

  16. I buy most political books, I even bought Barnett’s tedious tome on Howard, and even (Gough forgive me) the L*tham Diaries. If Howard writes a memoir, I will buy it. But I feel not the slightest twinge of interest in Costello’s memoirs. They will be like him – shallow, preening, hypocritical, complacent, superficial, conceited, cowardly and ultimately a flop.

  17. I find it astonishing that Piers could actually be paid for the tripe he serves up. The BEST poll the opposition has had is 46% 2PP and he talks about a one-term government?? Surely its a comedy routine

  18. 151 [Scorpio, nothing “positive” is reported about the overseas trip because nothing fruitful is likely to emerge from the gab-fest.

    That said, I really don’t have an issue with overseas travel by the PM.]

    GP,I’m finding it very difficult to understand how the two halves match. If there is no issue why comment on it? And should we ignore the first proposition in favour of the second?

  19. I immodestly remind Bludgers that, on the old PB blog, I predicted Costello would go from rooster to remainder bin in 10 days. So far, five days have elapsed.

    Our local bookstore in Beecroft, Sydney (Ruddock territory) has gone from $44.95 (top price) to $29.95 yesterday late.

  20. The teasers they had in the papers looked dull so I can hardly blame anyone for not wanting to buy it. To sell a political book you need to either have some pretty caustic material or something that can cause some type of scandal/stir (e.g. an affair).

  21. [Didn’t one of his books cost a far bit in a defamation case ?]

    Ellis dubs it “an ill-written sentence”, and wonders why Cozzie didn’t put anything at all of that particular kerfuffle in the book.

  22. Steve Fielding out-doing Turnbull on the hardships of the early days. What a clown.

    Please make sure that the tissues are ready to hand before you read this tome.

    [Growing up, I was one of 16 kids cramped into a small house in the Melbourne working-class suburb of Reservoir and I was lucky to have parents who worked hard to provide for their family.

    Not too many luxuries, though. If we ever got beef stroganoff – and I don’t think we did – we wouldn’t have complained about the portion sizes.]

    The rest of it about not being “obstructionist” in the Senate is quite strange too. Maybe he is positioning himself to take over the Lib leadership when Turnbull crashes & burns.

    http://www.watoday.com.au/opinion/we-wont-be-obstructionist-20080921-4ktk.html?page=-1

  23. {Brendan Nelson might well be thinking about his future after recent events. Here’s a thought: why doesn’t he move to state politics? In fact, why don’t Tony Abbott and Joe Hockey and other talented members of the Coalition consider the same move?]

    I would have thought the NSW Liberal Party had enough problems without adding this lot to the mix.

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/articles/2008/09/19/1221331252912.html

    I have to admit, the current fare offered up by the MSM is proving to be quite amusing.

  24. how about putting Rudd’s time away into perspective, Howard spent more days overseas in 2002-2003 and 2005 than what Rudd is putting in this year, { go google} if i remember rightly most of Howards junkets seemed to end up with him comfortably seated at the cricket or tennis or in Bush’s holiday palace, the world wasnt going through a economy crisis at that point, one that requires the critical hands on responsability of all the main world leaders to avert a complete meltdown, any lib sychophant who cant or refuses to see the difference in circumstance is a hypocrite.

  25. I went to a remainders bookshop yesterday; was very disappointed not to find a stack of the memoirs there. Oh well, next week no doubt.

    164 scorpio – what an amazingly incoherent arguement Turnbull is puuting forawrd:
    “It’s a huge amount of money, but the point is Labor stands up there and says we’re seeking to vandalise the budget … (but) it would reduce government revenues by less than half of one per cent.”

    so it’s huge, it’s gigantic, but it’s small, it’s just rhetoric.

    (no doubt Wayne Swan has sdent him a message thanking him for the free kick)

  26. Janet Albrechtsen is just about wetting her pants in today’s blog piece:

    [When traveller Rudd lands in New York tomorrow to give a 25 minute address to the UN General Assembly, he can be sure that back home the new Opposition Leader will be focusing voter’s minds of the global financial crisis. Ladies and gentlemen, we have a fight on our hands. Finally.]

    Oh really? While Turnbull is languishing in Canberra, Rudd will be in the centre of the world financial crisis, talking to those who are trying to fix it, on our behalf.

    I know where I’d rather be if I wished to remain relevant.

  27. 185 scorpio – I’ve long thought hockey should have gone back to NSW. Nelson and Abbott doing the same might just be seen as overkill! (or rats fleeing a sinking ship)

  28. From Janet A’s piece of fluff:
    [In Turnbull, Rudd has met more than his match and he will need to kick his jet fuel addiction and keep his eye on matters at home.]

    No doubt Janet (and the rest of the MSM) will continue counting how many days Rudd goes overseas, and if it drops off, it will be because he is too scared to leave now that Malcolm is on the scene.

    And if he continues at the same pace, they’ll just keep up the “perception of an absent PM continues to grow amongst political pundits and talk back radio listeners”.

  29. [but I thought Janet said Peter Costello was biding his time?]

    I don’t think he can beat 16 kids. Don’t think Tanya would be too impressed although Janet might be willing to help out in this regard.

  30. Grog,

    I love the way the narrative ebbs & flows. One minute Rudd is a “control freak” not able to let any aspect of governing from his grasp and the next minute, the whole Australian economy & way of life is in the balance, totally dependent on Rudd’s steady, guiding hand and will fall apart if Rudd so much as sets foot on an aircraft.

  31. We’re only bloggers, having a bit of fun on a lazy Sunday afternoon.

    ut the likes of Janet, Pies and Milne are supposed to be serious journalists. Yet their drivel is of lower standard than much of the stuff I’ve seen here.

    By the way: why is Janet writing what she writes and STILL occupying a position on the Board of the (supposedly impartial) ABC?

  32. Can I just point out how truly stupid I think it is (both as an argument and as a political ploy) to be criticising Rudd for going oversees to talk to the UN General Assembly and American financial regulators instead of staying at home and concentrating on domestic affairs during a “global credit crisis”.

    It’s a GLOBAL crisis!!! GLOBAL!!! And just a few good sound grabs with footage of Rudd addressing world leaders and key US financial regulators – in his well cultivated forthright and self assured way – will make Turnball look stupid with exactly the key Liberal constituents (economic right social progressives) that he, unlike Nelson, actually had a slim chance of bringing back into the Liberal fold.

    He is obviously very keen to take it up to Rudd (fair enough) and with the news cycle the way it is now, you do have to play a good short game. But there is short and there is so short you don’t even look far enough to see that you’re about to poke yourself in the eye!!!

    Assessment so far: Crapola!

    http://www.thewest.com.au/default.aspx?MenuId=28&ContentID=98849

  33. I wish you people would stop equating The Australian, a limited-circulation newsletter by and for Liberal Party toadies, with “the MSM.” I read the SMH, the Age, the Canberra Times and the Fin Review every morning and they’re all perfectly reasonable newspapers. If I want to know today’s Liberal Party talking points, I’ll read Hansard, or come on here and listen to GP and Glen. The only good thing in The Australian is Doonesbury, and I can get that at Slate.

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