ACNielsen: 52-48; Newspoll: 55-45

The latest monthly ACNielsen poll has produced an encouraging debut performance for new Liberal leader Malcolm Turnbull, with the Coalition leading Labor on the primary vote 42 per cent to 41 per cent. However, Labor maintains a 52-48 lead after preferences. Kevin Rudd leads Turnbull as preferred leader 56 per cent to 33 per cent. The poll also finds 33 per cent believe Peter Costello should quit politics against 29 per cent who think he should stay. Last month’s ACNielsen poll had Labor leading 55-45, from primary votes of 43 per cent and 39 per cent.

There are rumours of an early Newspoll this evening, so stay tuned.

UPDATE: Newspoll says 55-45, down only marginally from 56-44 last fortnight. Labor is down two points on the primary vote to 42 per cent and the Coalition up one to 38 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings are continuing their long-term move southwards: this time his approval rating is down four points to 50 per cent, while his disapproval is up five points to 37 per cent. Consistent with the Galaxy poll, Rudd heads Turnbull as preferred leader 54 per cent to 24 per cent, after leading Brendan Nelson 62 per cent to 16 per cent a fortnight ago. No straightforward approval rating for Turnbull at this stage, but he has scored a remarkable 74 per cent on being “decisive and strong”, the flip-side of his much vaunted arrogance.

UPDATE 2: New shadow cabinet announced. Main changes: Julie Bishop in treasury, Helen Coonan in foreign affairs, Christopher Pyne in education, Andrew Robb in “a new portfolio covering infrastructure, COAG and an emissions trading scheme” and Joe Hockey in finance. No-brainer: Bronwyn Bishop dropped.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

663 comments on “ACNielsen: 52-48; Newspoll: 55-45”

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  1. No, BB, put it on Hawthorn to cover the spread Saturday ……. I think even if Geelong win the margin will be close so by putting your $ on Hawthorn to cover the spread (usually it is 39.5 points I think) you ought to be singing all the way to the bank ….. Sportsbet [don’t know what agency your original bet was with] have 1-39 for Geelong @ $2.25 and Hawthorn @ $3.50 and if you make that 40+ it is Geelong $3.40 and Hawthorn $12. Head to head at the moment is Geelong $1.42 and Hawthorn $2.95

  2. No 650

    All it shows is that the Government’s attacks on the opposition were baseless.

    To be honest, it is a bit rich for the ALP to proclaim to be the greatest economic managers since sliced bread, when the reality is that the ALP left a disastrous macroeconomic situation for the Libs in 1996.

  3. Uncle Bushfire,
    It doesn’t matter whether you know the official rate or not. It does matter that the so called shadow Treasurer does not know something as basic as this. Perhaps she thinks that bothersome things like this are something the help should be dealing with.
    And you truly are a dunce on all things football. Everybody beats the NRL Doggies these days. That’s why they ran dead last. Truly a light of other days. A bit like Julie, come to think of it.
    Put your money on Geelong, all up Manly. You might get around $7.50. Either that, or save it all up and put it on the Rabbitohs to make next years eight. You will get significantly more if you ACT NOW!!!

  4. “I’m betting the call to bring in Cossie to replace Bishop won’t be too far away.”

    Costello wont have the guts to front up. He has too much to answer for besides inflation and rates.

    Costello would have to be one of Australia’s worst Treasurers, after Howard. There is no skill in standing at the till raking in the global boom revenues and wasting that prosperity.

  5. Are YOU back, GP?

    The ALP are not claiming to be “the greatest economic managers since sliced bread”, and you know that.

    All they are claiming – and it’s hard to dispute – is that they won the election. They should be allowed to govern in the way they see fit. The constant carping and meddling by the Opposition and independents is doing this country harm.

    If there was a scintilla of sincerity in it all, you could forgive them. But so far all we have seen is uncosted stunts – the 5c a litre excise reduction (which Howard would never have countenanced), and the pensions hike (Versions #1, #2, #3… and counting) which is totally unplanned, unfunded and typical of the shoot-from-the- hip, finger-in-the-dike populism that got us into the fiscal mess we are in. We have nothing going for us except digging bigger holes inthe ground until there is no more to flog off to overseas clients. Australia, under Howard, became lazy and bubble-orientated: our whole economy has been based, for the past decade, on stubbing our toes on a nugget of some mineral or other and selling off the windfall to others who know its true worth: value adding.

    For weeks and weeks now we have had these “policies” (and I use the word advisedly) from the Coalition front and centre. They have hardly made a dent in the public’s voting intention. You’d think that banging your head against the wall would eventually fail as a strategy, as it feels so great when it stops. But no… the Opposition keep it up, distracting the national discourse, sabotaging the Budget and pleasing no-one except currency speculators and a few deluded, denialists at the Murdoch press, plus a smattering of topless wrinklies in the pension bracket who should know better than to believe Howard would have looked after them if he’d been re-elected.

    Go back to Google, GP and do a search, preferably for a brain. You might be surprised what you find, if you’re honest about it.

  6. GP

    Why are you still raving on about, 1996 was in political terms pre-history. The points you raised were played out at the last election.

    Your guys fought the election on who were the better economic managers – and lost.

    Game over. 😉

  7. No 655

    So, BB, we have an admission that Governments should have unchecked discretion to govern if they win an election. Rubbish.

    If the people of Australia wanted no checks on the Government’s mandate, they would have handed the ALP a Senate majority. They didn’t.

    Everything else you said is petulant, conceited dribble.

  8. [Put your money on Geelong, all up Manly. You might get around $7.50.]

    Well, I saw Geelong demolish the Swans too, at the same venue (ANZ Stadium). Absolutely unstoppable. They looked invincible in any circumstances.

    So, you reckon Geelong and Manly?


  9. Howard advanced the cause of the Banana Republic no end. Industry left our shores at a rapid clip, reliance on primary products exports, the foreign takeover of our resources and enterprises quickened. Personal debt levels reached the highest since the invention of credit, the world’s fourth highest Current Account deficit, public assets gone forever, the world’s most unaffordable housing, second highest interest rates in the developed world.

  10. Dont believe us that Costello was a terrible irresponsible Treasurer –

    ANZ Bank chief economist Saul Eslake says the Federal Government should have made better use of the revenue it has made from Australia’s resources boom.

    Mr Eslake has addressed the Australian British Chamber of Commerce and told the gathering the Government has spent or given away almost every single dollar associated with the windfall gains.

    He says it has put upward pressure on interest rates and the money should have been used to address some of the national issues.

    “It should, for example, have been putting money away to pay for some of the costs associated with the ageing of the population, which they’ve spent the last six years telling us is the biggest fiscal challenge we face as a nation,” he said.

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