The latest monthly ACNielsen poll has produced an encouraging debut performance for new Liberal leader Malcolm Turnbull, with the Coalition leading Labor on the primary vote 42 per cent to 41 per cent. However, Labor maintains a 52-48 lead after preferences. Kevin Rudd leads Turnbull as preferred leader 56 per cent to 33 per cent. The poll also finds 33 per cent believe Peter Costello should quit politics against 29 per cent who think he should stay. Last month’s ACNielsen poll had Labor leading 55-45, from primary votes of 43 per cent and 39 per cent.
There are rumours of an early Newspoll this evening, so stay tuned.
UPDATE: Newspoll says 55-45, down only marginally from 56-44 last fortnight. Labor is down two points on the primary vote to 42 per cent and the Coalition up one to 38 per cent. Kevin Rudd’s personal ratings are continuing their long-term move southwards: this time his approval rating is down four points to 50 per cent, while his disapproval is up five points to 37 per cent. Consistent with the Galaxy poll, Rudd heads Turnbull as preferred leader 54 per cent to 24 per cent, after leading Brendan Nelson 62 per cent to 16 per cent a fortnight ago. No straightforward approval rating for Turnbull at this stage, but he has scored a remarkable 74 per cent on being “decisive and strong”, the flip-side of his much vaunted arrogance.
UPDATE 2: New shadow cabinet announced. Main changes: Julie Bishop in treasury, Helen Coonan in foreign affairs, Christopher Pyne in education, Andrew Robb in “a new portfolio covering infrastructure, COAG and an emissions trading scheme” and Joe Hockey in finance. No-brainer: Bronwyn Bishop dropped.
Newspoll
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24381569-601,00.html
Can’t say that I think it is particularly intuitive or believable. However, if the Newspoll shows something similar then the standard size bounce that Possums show has occured. However really it is counter intuitive to the reality of politics and performance of Rudd and Co so far.
The Newspoll shows a small bounce, less than the average. Too bad, didnt get my outlier, or did I 🙂
The problem with these figures to me is picking out if movements are bounce, MOE effect or the gradual effect of gravity coming off high figures as the government spends more time in power.
I suspect it is part of the gradual movement downwards over time from high figures and a bit of sentiment for the newness of Turnbull in the job.
I still expect it to be around 53/47 nearing election time.
[Labor has maintained its grip on its traditional strengths of health and education, but Mr Turnbull’s elevation to party leader has come with a nine-point fall in Mr Rudd’s ability to manage the environment, and Mr Turnbull’s support, at 23 per cent, is nine points higher than Dr Nelson’s three months ago.]
This from the Newspoll article. So what was the figure for Rudd? 23% for Turnbull on the environment? Surely that’s not good.
Finally after two years of huge numbers a set of polls that seem more in line with the traditional first term Government poll numbers.
I think both PM Rudd and Malcolm Turnbull would be happy with these numbers! a real political contest ideal for us politcal junkies
The “decisive and strong” rating will fall over time for Turnbull if the interview on channel nine this morning is typical of what we can expect. He was awful.
“Mr Turnbull is also seen as being less trustworthy than Mr Rudd by a wide margin, 55 per cent to the Prime Minister’s 70 per cent.”
Not sure that I understand what they are saying with those figures. Is that a margin of 55% or are they saying 70% trust Rudd and 55% Turnbull?
It is however Turbull’s soft point. That I imagine Labor will target over time.
The economic figures dont stand up for me and hint at a bias in the sample:
“There is little to separate Mr Rudd and Mr Turnbull on the issue of economic management, with the Opposition Leader on 43 per cent and the Prime Minister on 41per cent.”
Rudd has been quite conservative, responsible on the economy. Rates have come down and Labor has made a point of continually stating their efforts etc on the economy. Whereas the Liberals haven’t been doing that much and Swan was beating Turnbull before on economics. So this result seems a bit out of kilter with intuition.
hmmm, at least they are both moving in the right direction.
But i wouldnt put too much into polls taken the week we change leaders.
Turnbull will have made an impact if the Coalition becomes more competative in the polls (ie less than 5% behind) in a months time.
I agree Turnbull has a less than great in front of camera manner and, it is worse on radio. But then again at this stage the majority wont be listening, just hearing him making a noise and looking the part.
Glen is right a quick poll in the midst of the global economic noise and footy finals and so on…
Thomas it would be foolish to get all worked up over 2 polls taken just days after Turnbull became leader…let’s see how they are in a month or two and we’ll be better able to analyse whether Turnbull has had a positive impact.
8 – agreed Glen.
I’m surprised you aren’t more positive about this result Glen. The ACNielsen poll is a good one for Turnbull.
damn i guessed 54 for newspoll
doh
acnielsen…didnt they say 57-43 on the eve of the election…
But it’s ACNielsen and i cannot count the number of times i have said bull butter to their polls or was that Morgan….hmmm maybe i have more respect for AC than Morgan…
Still its sad to say it but i am liking seeing an 8 as our second number on 2pp 🙂
Still early days and Newspoll didnt record a bounce…meh lets wait and see.
Glen is right! these polls are mean little apart from looking more traditional for a first term government!
On a side note I feel a little for the PM when he is interview by journos who don’t seem to know what they are talking about.
Channel 7 had a special on the Economy and Chris Bath ask the PM about the Australian financial sector in which he replied that there was good regulation in place and the Banks had healthy profit etc next thing Chris Bath threw at the PM what are you doing about it!
I’m sorry but didn’t she hear the answer
AC Nielsen was the poll that consistently gave Labor great ratings before the election but was in the end way off the mark. I think someone said they changed their ways this time around..so will now have to wait and see how they have changed. I think their earlier poll this year was also one of the lower ones?
The Newspoll is within MOE.
So at the end of the day we are none the wiser I guess. Too bad I want to know now! 🙂
There is an upside in Turnbull getting strong ratings if he does at some stage and that is the same advantage Rudd got before the election – the confidence and strength to follow his own lead. If Turnbull does well he might feel confident to bring the party back to the left and the likes of Minchin wont be able to say much.
Hartcher pencilling in a win for the Libs next election. He obviously hasn’t read Newspoll or Glen.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/bpeter-hartcherb/2008/09/21/1221935450273.html
what will the gap become after 2 or 3 more interest rate drops, with turncoat and the libs persisting with their attacks on labor over perceived economic management weakness eh?
And ‘as if’ turncoat wouldn’t be off to NY to schmooze with all those slimey merchant banker types there given the first opportunity, but apparently he’d just phone them…
I find it bizarre journos predicting the outcome of an election so far in the future and especially with almost zero data to support their assertions, apart their personal desire for it to happen.
This is the same sort of nonsense he and others put out before the election when something negative happened for Rudd. They are it seems unable to de-couple rational analytical thinking from their own bias and desires.
He may be overly exicted but Turnbull has had a good week as most new leaders would want!
In many ways we are still in the pre-season and its easy to win matches during the pre-season I think from this point on national politics will be more even than the past 10 months but PM Rudd and the ALP are still firmly in Government and deserve to remain the clear favorites to win the next election.
We might also note that the Morgan F2F showed a dip for Labor (prior to Turnbull) so it also possible that any dip was simply gravity in action.
nite
A reasonably good result for Turnbull, just days after assuming the leadership. Still inconclusive though, and I concur with Glen that we really can’t make any meaningful assessment of Turnbull’s impact until a few months time.
“Don’t mention The Greens”
It’s a constant source of amusement to me, how the biggest shift in votes in reacent times is deliberatly ignored.
When the votes for the major parties move a couple of points headlines are generated for days,
However, when The Greens double their vote or representation, the sound of silence is defening.
For the Neilson poll to have the Coalition primary on 42% Rudd and the ALP would have had to do something wrong or were all the single pensioners polled.
Bully is having problem “feeling their pain”. It will dog him until he stops talking as if he is still in the court room addressing the members of the jury and the judge.
No way is LNP ahead on primaries – the Neilson has to be a rogue poll.
I wonder if the leadership spill would have had a different result if it had been called after these polls were released
A good result for a rabble who think parliament is only a part time job.
[Mr Costello, who ruled himself out of the Liberal leadership race before last week’s leadership ballot won by Malcolm Turnbull, said he intended to remain in parliament as a backbencher.
“You can stay in parliament, it’s not a full-time position,” Mr Costello told The Sydney Morning Herald.
He said it was a paid position but did not say how much, the newspaper reported.]
http://au.news.yahoo.com/a/-/latest/5030388/costello-world-bank-corruption-body/
[Mr Turnbull, a former merchant banker, referred to his experience in financial markets, but said he did not know everything. “I don’t claim to be the repository of all, or even most or even a large amount, of wisdom on this,” he said.]
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24381151-2702,00.html
If I were Bully, i wouldn’t brag about his past glory as “a merchant banker”, which has been updated to a “investment banker” lately. It is precisely this type of bankers that has led to the financial market meltdowns by punting on OPM, exhibit A: FAI & HIH. He would be better off talking about parasites.
How does Neilson get 52-48 from primaries of 41-42?
By my maths that means 17% are going to vote for someone else. So Neilson has given 6% to LNP and 11% to Labor. Did Labor get 66% of all preferences at the last election?
the Neilson poll has never been very accurate, Newspoll is the one we usually go by and by that it’s fairly normal, the 5aa radio commentators this morning were practically wetting themselves over the Neilson poll, Newspoll never got a mention, neither did the negatives for Turnbull nor the positives for Rudd.
i thought Rudd was excellent on Rove last night, he needs to show a little more of his relaxed smiling persona, it’s hard not to warm to him when you see that side of him and it’s a direct contrast to Turnbull’s smug little smile–in fact i cant recall ever seeing Turnbull give an outright laugh, he always looks brooding, shallow as it seems, to most people that impression goes a long way, unlike us politic groupies who dissect everything.
Actually Judith – Nielsen has always been accurate.
The funny business at the 2007 election came from them using Monday results in their final poll. The ALP and LNP pollsters all reckon a movement occurred to the Libs on Tuesday/Wednesday and Nielsen by polling on Monday had some of that pre-late movement wash into their results. The other pollsters didnt have Monday results in their sample, hence their lower ALP results in their final polls.
If Nielsen removed the Monday figures, their polls were pretty much spot on like all the other pollsters.
Yes, the MSM is predictably bashing Labor from all fronts this morning!
Let’s wait for a few more polls before we declare Rudd’s reign is over!
after a good nights sleep – yes the Nielsen does look the odd man out. I suspect Newspoll seems more true to form. Anyways, a long time to go until the election. There will be more ups and downs for both sides.
So Costello is going hang around to act as insurance against Turnbull making too many Left looking policies? In otherwords he and the LNP are still hamstrung and thus stuffed.
And I never recall the media kicking up too much of a fuss over Howard’s frequent trips to the U.K, to watch the Ashes or visit the Queen. I guess Rudd going to talk to bankers and financial regulators in Wall Street isn’t important enough, right?
All very well and good Possum, but one of those polls is less accurate than the other.
Turnbull is your classic flash rat with a gold tooth. That’s his modus vivendi. Get ’em to sign on the dotted line before they’ve read the fine print. Rudd has seen off Howard, Vaile, Downer and Nelson and has left Costello emasculated on the back benches with a dud book for comfort. All of these were unassailable (especially in the eyes of Hartcher et al) less than a year ago. He’ll see off Turnbull as well.
Not necessarily BB. Newspoll on the TPP is between 52 and 58 for the ALP while Nielsen is between 49 and 55 for the ALP.
Just using the overlap we have a shared ALP TPP of between 52 and 55.
This time last month with these two pollsters, the shared overlap was on the ALP TPP was 53 to 58 .
A bounce was expected – a bounce happened.
so who won?
Hmm – don’t know what to make of these two polls.
The 52/48 is very good for the Libs – they haven’t been that close in Neilsen poll since 2006 and it’s the best poll results for them since the twin 52/48s they got from Newspoll and Galaxy on the eve of the election.
However, the 55/45 suggest more of the same – small movement within MOE and Turnbull having a minimal impact on the polls.
Grog – Gusface did, by beating of Gabhran on Truffles PPM metric by a point.
steve
I think he was referring to the “new job” being part time
neilson did a better job of predicting what I thought newspoll would be, than I did predicting what newspoll would be.
oh well, back to the real world – when does he bother announcing his shadow bench? (5 minutes after Rudd’s plane takes off??)
owch Possum, i bow to your experienced self lol, i still dont think Rudd has much to worry about just yet, though maybe i’m the eternal optimist, someone ought to punch holes in talculm’s ranting about Rudd’s overseas travel, Howard did more days overseas in 2002-2003 and 2005 than what Rudd is doing this year and there was no economic meltdown crisis then, though come to think of it there was cricket and tennis and a holiday with the Bush’s beckoning him and his missus.mind you talculm went tootling overseas to make himself known to world leaders as the potential opposition leader earlier this year under the guise of shadow treasurer — or do you think i’m being cynical lol.
Was just watching Tony Blair on Jon Stewart; and you think, well there’s a guy who handed over to his treasurer just like Costello wanted Howard to do; and it looks like Labour will get slaughtered at the next election.
Fact is succession plans sound nice, but it gets to a point that leaders are just deckchairs on the Titanic.
and big congrats to gusface.
42 – Grog, according to Alison Carabine (3AW) Malcolm will take full advantage of Rudd being away to announce his shadow front bench. What the?
She also says that Rudd, being mindful of the criticism of going overseas, will leave after QT today. Of course he was probably always going to do so but, hey, why let the truth get in the way of a good story.
Did anyone see Laurie Oakes’ interview with Malcolm? Malcolm said that each trip by themselves probably had merit, including this last one, but that together they posed a problem. Am I missing something here or is that gobbledy gook?
gb – truth??? what is this thing you speak of?
I’m home taking care of sick kids, so was looking forward to Julia in QT.
Surely he has to announce it before QT? if not they’ll savage him as being so gutless as to have to wait for the PM to be out of the country before he does anything.
46 yes GB you are: 2+2=5. I thought you knew that by now.
I think GP and Glen have got it right and Possum makes a good point. There was a bounce but we need to wait to see what that bounce does from here, like with McCain and Palin.
if things were so critical here, then why was talculm our shadow treasurer at the time sunning himself on the beach overseas a week ago instead of being here to mind the shop?